Global Economic Crash Late July!

When mainstream economists begin to sound like an average Above Top Secret contributor, then you know we're headed for hell.

The word is out and it's dire. Think the worst is over for the credit crunch? Think we're in as deep a recession as we're gonna get? Haha! This was just a preamble.

The chief economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland says the global economy is headed for a crash unseen in over 100 years, beginning sometime this July. Translated another way -- by the end of the summer, we'll be in full-blown Great Depression II.

"Cash is the key safe haven. This is about not losing your money, and not losing your job," said Mr Janjuah, who became a City star after his grim warnings last year about the credit crisis proved all too accurate.

RBS expects Wall Street to rally a little further into early July before short-lived momentum from America's fiscal boost begins to fizzle out, and the delayed effects of the oil spike inflict their damage.

What makes this prediction chilling is the mode by which this will come about -- oil. The oil price surge will finally work its venom fully into the world economies by the mid-summer; inflation will spike to headline-making levels; and then the mass layoffs come.

Suddenly the Fed and other central banks are in a real Damocles Sword scenario: Ordinarily, the Fed would cut rates to spur growth. This time, with rapid inflation, they will have to raise rates. That will not only choke growth, but will steepen the economic decline.

Remember, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is a "student" of the first Great Depression, having wrote many studies, such as this noted 2004 speech, on the subject. His main contention was that monetary policy makers in the lead-up to the depression caused it by bowing to outside forces to increase the interest rate.

The market crash of October 1929 showed, if anyone doubted it, that a concerted effort by the Fed can bring down stock prices. But the cost of this "victory" was very high. According to Friedman and Schwartz, the Fed's tight-money policies led to the onset of a recession in August 1929, according to the official dating by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The slowdown in economic activity, together with high interest rates, was in all likelihood the most important source of the stock market crash that followed in October. In other words, the market crash, rather than being the cause of the Depression, as popular legend has it, was in fact largely the result of an economic slowdown and the inappropriate monetary policies that preceded it. Of course, the stock market crash only worsened the economic situation, hurting consumer and business confidence and contributing to a still deeper downturn in 1930.

Translation: When the Fed increased the interest rate, it shrank the money supply, which shrank world output and GDP, which fueled depression.

Today, he's in a real pickle: Does he stick by his guns, keep rates low, maybe even cut them more and risk an inflationary spiral not seen since the 1970's, or perhaps even as bad a Germany in the run-up to WWII? Or does he bow to world banking pressure, spike rates as a way to strengthen the dollar and deflate the price of oil, but risk spiraling our economy even further into the abyss?

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the worst economic plight we may ever see in our entire lives. It has the wholesale potential to change the very fabric of our country, its institutions, its government and its role as a world leader.

Well that article pretty well lays it out and sums it up. We are so scr*wed.

I just want to point out, as Behind The Scenes referenced, MSM is
sounding more and more like ATS. I read all of these oil and economic predictions a year ago on ATS and now it's all right here, right now.

It kind of makes me worried about all of the other stuff I read on here.

[edit on 18/6/2008 by kosmicjack]

Originally posted by behindthescenes
Ladies and gentlemen, this is the worst economic plight we may ever see in our entire lives. It has the wholesale potential to change the very fabric of our country, its institutions, its government and its role as a world leader.

I think you got that right. The world is about to change and this will be a time remembered for generations to come. It can all be traced back to the subprime loan scams and the mad scramble by investors to cover their losses in that area, dumping their money into commodities. What they'll wonder when they look back at how it unfolded, is how we couldn't see what was happening and how we allowed them to manipulate food and energy prices. The basic requirements for our survival.

Screwed indeed. I will definitely be keeping an eye on this issue. I can't even begin to imagine the kinds of changes that will take place in this country...It may be time to get off the grid completely. I don't know about you all, but when the SHTF i want to be as far away from a major city as possible!!

When we talk about "the world will change", change in what way? I just want an idea so I can prepare!

Oh Hell in a handbasket
I wish I had prepared for this..

O yeah that's right.. I've been watching this happen for two years now..

Honestly..this is props to the people that make up this board.
Proof once again how far we are on top of the so-called 'experts'.

Maybe we should start up our own market consultancy business..

Yes BTW.. we ARE all scr$w£d..
Nature here I come.. in my best fig-leaf thong..

Originally posted by Alethia
When we talk about "the world will change", change in what way? I just want an idea so I can prepare!

Okay, here's one scenario.

Let's say that the national unemployment reaches as high as 15% (given the commodities crisis, it could go a lot higher). That's a lot of people jobless, most of whom will likely be penniless at some point. Starving? Even more likely with food inflation.

Remember, the government went on a spending spree to clothe, feed and ultimately, put America back to work as a way out of the first Great Depression (which ultimately ended due to spending on WWII). Our government currently is spending at levels that will bankrupt our economy in the mid-term. You think they're gonna be able to feed and clothe us this time around? Let alone give us jobs?

The signs of this have been around for some time now but still we find it hard to accept I for one have been getting ready for this crash like a few people on here.


I'm not looking forward to sleeping in a tent As i won't have enough money to pay my home loan each month

I like many people will be out of work Hungry cold and have a very bleek future All because of greed by the elite

Love and light to all

Originally posted by behindthescenes

Originally posted by Alethia
When we talk about "the world will change", change in what way? I just want an idea so I can prepare!

Okay, here's one scenario.

Let's say that the national unemployment reaches as high as 15% (given the commodities crisis, it could go a lot higher). That's a lot of people jobless, most of whom will likely be penniless at some point. Starving? Even more likely with food inflation.

Remember, the government went on a spending spree to clothe, feed and ultimately, put America back to work as a way out of the first Great Depression (which ultimately ended due to spending on WWII). Our government currently is spending at levels that will bankrupt our economy in the mid-term. You think they're gonna be able to feed and clothe us this time around? Let alone give us jobs?

THIS!! Better get up to snuff on those survival skills if need be. If this is the scenario that takes place, there will obviously be riots going on in plenty of the cities nationwide. Logic dictates that we get the heck away from those cities...better get some good topographical maps and find a suitable piece of wilderness to rebuild in.
Another scary thought....if this is where we are headed, martial law is likely not far behind....what kind of treatment are we to expect from the military and government if they ever come across your self-reliant little group in the woods?
There are too many unknowns, but man what a scary scenario we are likely to be faced with.

This is a good way to sum up the Global crash

The scenario I foresee is that market-based panic will, within a few days, drive prices up skyward. And as supplies can no longer slake daily world demand of over 80 million barrels a day, the market will become paralyzed at prices too high for the wheels of commerce and even daily living in "advanced" societies.



The trucks will no longer pull into Wal-Mart. Or Safeway or other food stores. The freighters bringing packaged techno -toys and goods from China will have no fuel. There will be fuel in many places, but hoarding and uncertainty will trigger outages, violence and chaos. For only a short time will the police and military be able to maintain order, if at all

And this

. . when the truth can no longer be obscured, the price will spike, the economy nosedive, and the underpinnings of our civilization will start tumbling like dominos. "The price of house will collapse. Stock markets will crash. Within a short period, human wealth -- little more than a pile of paper at the best of times, even with the confidence about the future high among traders -- will shrivel.



There will be emergency summits, diplomatic initiatives, urgent exploration efforts, but the turmoil will not subside. Thousands of companies will go bankrupt, and millions will be unemployed. "Once affluent cities with street cafés will have queues at soup kitchens and armies of beggars. The crime rate will soar. The earth has always been a dangerous place, but now it will become a tinderbox . . .

All very scary stuffand to think it's not far away

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net...

How much of this "inflation" is really a result of raw material cost increases?

Case in point, General Mills today announced that its earnings per share spiked by 11%. I haven't read their 10Q yet, but I'm willing to wager that much of that higher revenue has to do with the prices increases they've been funneling down to your grocery aisle.

And I'm going to guess that those cost increases for your box of Sugar Smacks more than cover the rising costs of corn.

I think we're gonig to see Corporate America do a little experiment in price gouging in the coming months, under the excuse of raw material cost increases.....

great info, we must all stay vigilant and keep a wary eye on this situation as it develops.
so, any of you AZ ATS'rs have any good hiding spots? :p

i heard a rumor it was going to happen on Sept 18th this year. July or Sept 18th time will tell but one things for certain its gonna happen... everything else is just rearranging deck chairs on the titanic.

Originally posted by TheRepublic
i heard a rumor it was going to happen on Sept 18th this year. July or Sept 18th time will tell but one things for certain its gonna happen... everything else is just rearranging deck chairs on the titanic.

Why so specific a date at Sept. 18?

Does it have something to do with debt calls?

This a really naieve question, so dont flame me, as i dont know a whole lot about stocks and shares. If we pulled all our boys (us/uk) from iraq and afghanistan, and diverted that money that we spend every day for the so called war on terror to the stock markets/oil, is it possible that this credit crunch could be averted?? Or is it too late for that?

Originally posted by shaolin_dragon
This a really naieve question, so dont flame me, as i dont know a whole lot about stocks and shares. If we pulled all our boys (us/uk) from iraq and afghanistan, and diverted that money that we spend every day for the so called war on terror to the stock markets/oil, is it possible that this credit crunch could be averted?? Or is it too late for that?

Part of your scenario addresses the root problem of our situation, but as to that plan, no, that would do nothing, except that the government would become a major player on Wall Street.

But the cost of the war has, in part, created this situation. In order to finance the war, the government has been literally printing dollars. It's a very basic explanation, but not very far from the truth. You see, the Fed had the interest rate so low for so long, it created a world of cheap credit. Couple that with a whole world of investors through hedge funds and other unregulated groups who invested in everything from stocks to bonds to real estate using other people's money (through loans by banks and investment firms), and anything could be had at nearly any amount. It's why we saw run ups in commodities, real estate and unprecedented levels of merger and acquisitions (or companies buying each other).

This was fueled by the housing market. Mortgages were given to anyone regardless of credit because those mortgages could be pooled together into investment vehicles like bonds and sold on Wall Street. When that fell apart (subprime crisis), the domino effect snowballed through everything and led to banks losing potentially trillons of dollars, every bank scared to do business with other banks and customers for fear of future losses, the value of the dollar plummeting on the world stage, etc.

Unfortunately, this will be solved by Economics 101 -- time. We have to go through this pain. The fundamental market system will recover -- always does. But like we saw through the reaction following 9/11, what aspects of our free market economy we hold dear will become victims of politics, overreaction and greed?

reply to post by behindthescenes


after the bear stearns collapse i was on youtube watching videos about it and one guy was on there saying he had inside news saying it had been planned to happen on sept 18th (or maybe it was 16th. i knew it was 3rd week of sept on an even number business day).

Now normally i wouldnt believe something because some guy on youtube said something, but the thing is it matches up with things i know to be true by themselves.

the unfortunate thing is i cant seem to find the video, maybe it was removed.

but the things i know are:

1)there is no foundation for this market anymore. it is being completely propped up by manipulation. they are just buying time. after the bear sterns collapse it became evident that the crap hit the fan (and if the fed hadnt done highly illegal things it indeed would have)

2) the financial collapse will be planned for an end goal. that goal is controling of the population, and the seizing of true wealth.

3) such collapse will probably happen in early to mid fall because people will not be able to find or grow food for themselves for the longest amount of time from then on as a whole across the US. This makes people in a depression easier to control. a good 3-6 months of winter will do wonders in getting people to submit.


like i said i wish i could find that video now. but rest assured you are correct, we are financially in uncharted waters heading for a gigantic iceberg.

Originally posted by shaolin_dragon
This a really naieve question, so dont flame me, as i dont know a whole lot about stocks and shares. If we pulled all our boys (us/uk) from iraq and afghanistan, and diverted that money that we spend every day for the so called war on terror to the stock markets/oil, is it possible that this credit crunch could be averted?? Or is it too late for that?

I think that pouring the military money into the economy would just increase the already runaway inflation. I'm not an expert though.

I do have to point out that this is about way more than just a credit crunch. This is about a credit crunch, inflation and decreased growth happening simultaneously.

I also have to state that I don't think that this will be anywhere near as catastrophic for individuals as this thread makes out. There are people here who would have you think that we will be fighting each other with sticks and glass bottles just to get a scrap of rancid rabbit flesh.

Ok, what can we do to keep ourselves going after a collapse?

I have heard that investing in gold is the way to ensure your financial security....

But, a worldwide economic recession would make the value of anything drop....

So do we do as the ostrich would do, and stick our heads in the sand, hope for the best? or do we stockpile cans of food and water, and hope to survive the worst of the worst?

Well one thing is for certain....

Someone will take advantage of the world discombobulation, and fill in as the new WORLD LEADER!!!!

Is that not scarier than a crash?

YIKES THE ANTICHRIST!!!!!(next you will see this on msm)

The market is currently retesting the March (Bear Sterns) lows. We currently have a confirmed Hindenberg Omen on the clock which since 1985 has been one of the most reliable signals to a substantial market decline. ( Hindenburg Omen ). It looks like Saudi Arabia no longer has the power to increase production enough to tamp down oil prices. Many, many banks are on the verge of collapse, and if they were forced to actually mark to market and take the losses on the things they have on their books as Level 3 assetts we'd see lots of names everyone knows be bankrupted overnight. The FED has lent most of it's available balance sheet to various financial entities through the TAF, TSLF, etc... facillities; and is about to either have to get the Treasury to print or sell its longer dated holdings into the open market . The first is like throwing gas on a fire in regards to inflationary effects and the latter would hit the bond market causing interest rates to moonshot putting the final nail in the coffin on housing and limiting the abillity of companies to grow by increasing costs to borrow.

Ostrich syndrome is widespread particularly amongst that large cohort of Boomers about to retire. They lost their butts in the tech wreck in 2000 retrenched into housing and now its busting. I don't see anything encouraging in the medium to long term economically. Congress will do anything to try to avoid the pain that is coming and though it is possible that they may succeed temporarily the longer it takes the pain to come the worse it will be.

It would not surprise me to see a short term bounce of this bottom followed by a substantial downturn into the end of summer. I think however that all bets are off after the Beijing Olympics.