Global Rioting Potential? The looming meltdown.

Unfortunately, rice is EXTREMELY water intensive...And those countries who have sufficient water supplies closeish to the equator that can often export their surplus, are the nations that also need rice most a staple to feed their populations...

The problem lies with other countries where rice isnt so much a staple, and who could in the past export the majority of their rice crop...Australia is in this situation...We can no longer viably afford to grow rice in this country due to 10+ years of drought...

I am sure there are other nations that were net exporters of rice 10 yrs ago who aren't at the moment, and might not be in the future...

And on the wheat subject, again, drought has made a huge difference to world wheat prices in many export nations, including Australia...

One of the fixes could start with GM grain, I guess...But there are too many unknowns for many people, me included....

Tho third world nations are going to find themselves with little other choice than to grow GM crops soon...

Not a great situation for everyone

Originally posted by deltaboy
I can imagine the Chinese invade our country to get our food to feed their billion people. Its like our own oil field equivalent.

Oh, Please. Stop shuffling your prejudices and calling it thinking.

As usual the media are hyping things up. I live in Asia and have not heard of any rioting. People are complaining about 'inflation', but there is no rioting.

Originally posted by deessell
I live in Asia and have not heard of any rioting. People are complaining about 'inflation', but there is no rioting.

I don't think you will have to wait very long to 'hear' about it.

Articles from today alone.

UN warns on food shortage riots

Food price rises of more than 40 per cent in the last 12 months have helped spark riots and unrest in countries like Egypt, Haiti and Uzbekistan.

On Monday there were food riots in Haiti and there have been violent protests in Ivory Coast. Riots after price rises in Cameroon in February left 40 people dead.

In northern Egypt this week, there have also been riots with people angry about food prices which have doubled in less than a year.

More...

and...

In Africa, landlocked Burkina Faso has been crippled by a general strike over food prices.

Forty people died during price riots in Cameroon in February. There also have been deadly troubles in Ivory Coast and Mauritania and other violent demonstrations in Senegal.

...

Troops in Manila had to stand guard over rice imports last week, whilst last year's uprising against the military junta in Myanmar was partly blamed on food shortages.

In Pakistan the price of the staple flat bread has doubled, whilst in India opposition parties are threatening anti-inflation demonstrations ahead of local elections.

...

In Europe, France and Germany have seen "purchasing power" protests by sectors as diverse as civil servants, steelworkers and train drivers, and even a "pasta strike" consumer boycott in Italy last year.

More...

and...

High food prices seen leading to strikes, protests in Asia

Asia's governments face strikes, protests and hoarding in response to the spiralling cost of food and other essentials that threatens to damage them at the polls, observers say.

...

In China, inflation is of particular concern because it threatens to lead to social unrest and fuel anger at the government, as it did ahead of 1989 democracy protests that the military crushed.

The price of China's staple meat, pork, has risen by more than 60 percent year-on-year.

...

More...

I could go on and on... No shortage of news sources...

EDIT: More... (couldn't help myself):

Farmers sleep with pigs in wake of rampant theft

FARMERS in several villages in Shaanxi Province decided to sleep with their pigs after repeated thefts as thieves sought to capitalize on pork price rises attributed to supply shortages after a disease outbreak last year.

...

China's consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, jumped 8.7 percent in February, the biggest monthly jump since the 8.9 percent gain recorded in May 1996, pushed by rocketing pork prices.

More...

and...

Food security woes: Hunger strife

In China, authorities introduced controls on a range of goods from instant noodles to milk, calling it a temporary intervention to battle surging inflation. It was the first time in over a decade that Beijing waded into the food market.

...

Countries with food-related unrest

* Argentina
* Bolivia
* Peru
* Nicaragua
* Mexico
* Venezuela
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Mauritania
* Senegal
* Guinea
* Sierra Leone
* Liberia
* Burkina Faso
* Central African Republic
* Cameroon
* Congo
* Algeria
* Chad
* DR Congo
* Sudan
* Eritrea
* Iraq
* Bulgaria
* Moldova
* Afghanistan
* Nepal
* India
* Bangladesh
* Philippines
* Pakistan
* Sri Lanka
* Somalia
* Ethiopia
* Mozambique
* Zimbabwe
* Swaziland
* Lesotho
* Indonesia
* East Timor
* Australia

More...

[edit on 10-4-2008 by loam]

reply to post by loam


Sure, that's my point! There is western media coverage of this. I live here, I'm not seeing it in the streets. Personally, I would be more worries these concerns for your own country.

You can choose to believe what you see on TV or listen to me who lives here. The choice is yours.

Convince me they are really happening.

[edit on 10-4-2008 by deessell]

reply to post by deessell


I'm sorry, I mean no disrespect, but 'your' media coverage would be more candid about the growing crisis???

:shk:

EDIT: Moreover...

"The only way for China to be spared the consequences of global food shortages and food price hikes is to remain firmly self-sufficient," declared an emphatic editorial in the 21st Century Economic Herald last week.

...

Driven by food price increases, inflation surged in February to 8.7 percent -- the fastest pace in more than 11 years.

Inflationary pressures were partly behind Premier Wen Jiabao’s recent admission that 2008 will be "China’s most difficult year".

Link.

More...

[edit on 10-4-2008 by loam]

reply to post by loam


Loam, no disrespect but when I look out the window and drive through the streets in this rice-exporting nation I don't see rioting or even protesting hungry people. I see many examples of a nation with 7% growth. I see economic boom. I see a country that last year (on record ;-) that received 70 billion of economic investment.

I am willing to concede that there may be civil unrest in Pakistan and Haiti etc but to claim that it is primarily about food is quite ludicrous. And, to claim that 'Asia' is experiencing this, is dishonest journalism. There is no shortage of food, you are just witnessing the 'control' of food. Welcome to globalization. Do you think you might be being conditioned to wage war on food next? There really is enough food, it's distribution that's the problem.

reply to post by loam


Um Loam you can add the United States to that list for Food Unrest.

I say this because there has not been a single economic thread on ATS where FOOD prices have not been a major concern, or even along with oil, directly related to our economic problems as a cause..

As our purchasing power drops because more of a percentage goes to rising taxes, rising fuel and rising food cost as well as other necessities like energy, water and heating.. we don't have nearly enough to spend on luxuries, which regardless of how anyone thinks of Materialism, it drives our economy.

Food prices in America, as well as Oil, are NOT included on the Core Inflation Index.

If it where, as China's purchasing index is, inflation would be much, much higher then the current supposed 4-5% .. Since 2001 gas has gone from $.90-1.00 a gallon to a national average of $3.50 in 2008. Wages have remained stagnant the entire decade. Food prices have also risen sharply.. most having to do with energy prices, the more oil cost to drive the goods to the factories, then to the distribution centers, then to the stores.. if food prices did not rise in this free market food producers and suppliers would loose money..

The only difference is that Americans have money.. the third world does NOT have money.. so instead of starving, a larger percentage of our income goes to feeding our selves. Ask ANY restaurant owner - sales are down - evidence that while Americans are not starving, they are giving up many forms of luxuries..

So we don't riot in the streets.. but we do protest, we protest by cutting our spending.. which will only accelerate.. even at the rate the average American is currently spending debt money (credit) compared to earning power and debt accumulation, they cannot withstand another year of economic pressures without major defaults within the debt system.

So far only mortgages have been hit, now automobiles and luxury crafts like boats and planes are being repo'd .. the mortgages went first because people knew they would loose their house, so they put all their money to paying other debts like credit cards.. once the house was gone, the brand new car was next to go.. the method in which this is done is a strategy to save credit.. losing your house and car will hurt your credit, but continuously defaulting on credit cards will destroy you.

Once the purchasing power is leveled out, food prices soar, and because we sold out small farms to massive farming industries and corporations.. they corporations which accumulate far more debt then individual farmers will go under..

I think then we will see riots in America for food..

Supplies drop, populations rise, this is where Darwin comes into play.

More:

As Australia dries, a global shortage of rice: Drought contributes to shortage of food staple

DENILIQUIN, Australia: Lindsay Renwick, the mayor of this dusty southern Australian town, remembers the constant whir of the rice mill. "It was our little heartbeat out there, tickety-tick-tickety," he said, imitating the giant fans that dried the rice, "and now it has stopped."

The Deniliquin mill, the largest rice mill in the Southern Hemisphere, once processed enough grain to satisfy the daily needs of 20 million people. But six long years of drought have taken a toll, reducing Australia's rice crop by 98 percent and leading to the mothballing of the mill last December.

...

The collapse of Australia's rice production is one of several factors contributing to a doubling of rice prices in the last three months — increases that have led the world's largest exporters to restrict exports severely, spurred panicked hoarding in Hong Kong and the Philippines, and set off violent protests in countries including Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Haiti, Indonesia, Italy, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, the Philippines, Thailand, Uzbekistan and Yemen.

More...

[edit on 17-4-2008 by loam]

reply to post by loam


Loam -- your link does not work..

The US government has just released new inflation numbers, Core Inflation, an index not including food or oil based products, is up .2% compared to Febuary .. Consumer Price Index is up .3% compared in the same time frame.....

HOWEVER.........

The US Government recognizes in the past month to two months, the average price of regular unleaded has went from $2.90 to $3.45

Gas is NOT included in ANY inflation indexes..

Neither is food, which the government recognizes has risen in some places 50% or more.. since January ..

but again, not included..

In the past 30 days the US Dollar has depreciated 3%

But this is not included in any index used to guage inflation.

Instead inflation is compared to the average increase, or decrease in hard products like TV's, Cars, computers, construction material and so forth..

All I can say is, WTF ... seriously, what is the current rate of inflation??

And yes, this has a major impact on countries that unofficially use the US Dollar as its currency or countries that peg their currency to the Dollar..

Not to mention the effects on American citizens......

reply to post by Rockpuck


Fixed the link. Sorry.

CONTINUING WORRIES:

This is the first MSM article I've seen discussing the possibility of wide-spread food rationing in the US.

Food Rationing Confronts Breadbasket of the World

Many parts of America, long considered the breadbasket of the world, are now confronting a once unthinkable phenomenon: food rationing. Major retailers in New York, in areas of New England, and on the West Coast are limiting purchases of flour, rice, and cooking oil as demand outstrips supply. There are also anecdotal reports that some consumers are hoarding grain stocks.

At a Costco Warehouse in Mountain View, Calif., yesterday, shoppers grew frustrated and occasionally uttered expletives as they searched in vain for the large sacks of rice they usually buy.

"Where's the rice?" an engineer from Palo Alto, Calif., Yajun Liu, said. "You should be able to buy something like rice. This is ridiculous."

More...

Now the point shouldn't be missed. This isn't a "what if"... This is COSTCO already limiting the amount of flour and cooking oil being sold!!!

And it apparently is happening elsewhere:

"It's sporadic. It's not every store, but it's becoming more commonplace," the editor of SurvivalBlog.com, James Rawles, said. "The number of reports I've been getting from readers who have seen signs posted with limits has increased almost exponentially, I'd say in the last three to five weeks."

And here is another interesting point:

"I'm surprised the Bush administration hasn't slapped export controls on wheat," Mr. Rawles said. "The Asian countries are here buying every kind of wheat." Mr. Rawles said it is hard to know how much of the shortages are due to lagging supply and how much is caused by consumers hedging against future price hikes or a total lack of product.

"There have been so many stories about worldwide shortages that it encourages people to stock up. What most people don't realize is that supply chains have changed, so inventories are very short," Mr. Rawles, a former Army intelligence officer, said. "Even if people increased their purchasing by 20%, all the store shelves would be wiped out."

I think people should be watching this issue very closely.



[edit on 21-4-2008 by loam]

So in Ausstralia, they have killed and buried sheep and cattle.....It never occured to them to send them to market while they were still edible?

Drought, ah yes, with all that water around you there no one will build desal plants. Too expensive they say. Yeah, its cheaper to just let everything and maybe eveybody die.

Just the other day I was reading a post somewhere by a person who was passionatly adamant that the world could easily support 10 billion people. It seem that there is a real shortage of brains too.

reply to post by infinite
I'm curious why you think that the Western World will not see riots? Maybe you live a nice little suburb, but I live in an area of marked lower class people who are barely getting by now. If food prices continue to rise to the point that food is rationed (and not just rice), I foresee a terrible problem in the near future. People around here won't react well to it.

a little offtopic question out of curiosity.

where does this "u.s. breadbasket of the world" come from?
I know the us produces a huge amount of food which is largely consumed domestically i believe. (amount of made in us food products in stores here.. well you will have to look, hard.)

in a documentary canada was also calle breadbasket of the world.

on the other hand holland, france, germany and belgium (my close neighbourhood hence what I can be most sure about)
are pretty much self solvent in the food department.
we import a lot and export at the same time, more for variety (it's the climate of apples here not oranges but we like oranges, that kind of thing)

does anyone know to whom apart from itself america & canada serve as such large suppliers of foodstuffs that they are realy dependent on the usa, I know we are not at all dependant on the usa here.

(future disasters excluded, but then if yellowstone blows the survivors in the usa would become dependent on aid from europe etc. no sense really disaster can and always will happen and change the status quo completely so just no sense on bringing it up)

I'm just wondering where the name came from because from my non us point of view I don't see that much dependence on the usa here.

disclaimer:
not meant negatively on the usa, just questioning as that is not the experience we have over here, the only american food products in stores here are american brand items like coca cola.
grain is mostly local and from neighbours.
meat is mostly local and from neighbours.
milk is local
apples, pears and various other northerly fruits is local.
cranberries is local (ever since barrels of them washed up on shore and surprisingly started to grow succesfully here somewhere in the 18th or 19th century)
rice is from asia
potatoes is local
citrusfruits are from spain, turkey, marocco an such, sometimes they have some shipments from florida in my local supermarket but mostly it's from a little closer to home like spain, simply less cost to transport I figure.

anyone have export figures for the usa?
I woul like to know whom of the world the usa is breadbsket to, it's not us anyway.

most others is export from holland to the outside (potatoes apples, pears, cranberries, milk and meat)

I don't want to suggest im not worried, i am, I didn't want to suggest holland can support itself when it stops any and all export of food. I meant to say the little circle we have here together is pretty much self supplying if necessary.

[edit on 29/4/2008 by David2012]

Originally posted by Rockpuck
I don't think America is in any danger just yet.. we already produce well over what we need.. a drop would only lower it to what we need..

We do? The articles I've read this year indicate the US has no more than a month of food in the supply chains at any given time.

UPDATE: ELEVEN MONTHS LATER...

Saw this article, and it made me think of this thread.

Financial crisis sparks unrest in Europe

Look at this list!

The global financial and economic crisis has sparked many protests in parts of Europe. Here are some details:

* BOSNIA -- ...

* BRITAIN -- ...

* BULGARIA -- ...

* FRANCE -- ...

* GERMANY -- ...

* ICELAND -- ...

* IRELAND -- ...

* LATVIA -- ...

* LITHUANIA -- ...

* MONTENEGRO -- ...

* RUSSIA -- ...

* UKRAINE - ...

And then there is this news:

Worst Drought in Half Century Shrivels the Wheat Belt of China

Instability is everywhere you look.

Add this EXCELLENT Salon article too:

We're on the brink of disaster: Violent protests and riots are breaking out everywhere as economies collapse and governments fail. War is bound to follow.

The global economic meltdown has already caused bank failures, bankruptcies, plant closings and foreclosures and will, in the coming year, leave many tens of millions unemployed across the planet. But another perilous consequence of the crash of 2008 has only recently made its appearance: increased civil unrest and ethnic strife. Someday, perhaps, war may follow.

As people lose confidence in the ability of markets and governments to solve the global crisis, they are likely to erupt into violent protests or to assault others they deem responsible for their plight, including government officials, plant managers, landlords, immigrants and ethnic minorities. (The list could, in the future, prove long and unnerving.) If the present economic disaster turns into what President Obama has referred to as a "lost decade," the result could be a global landscape filled with economically fueled upheavals.

Indeed, if you want to be grimly impressed, hang a world map on your wall and start inserting red pins where violent episodes have already occurred. Athens (Greece), Longnan (China), Port-au-Prince (Haiti), Riga (Latvia), Santa Cruz (Bolivia), Sofia (Bulgaria), Vilnius (Lithuania) and Vladivostok (Russia) would be a start. Many other cities from Reykjavik, Paris, Rome and Zaragoza to Moscow and Dublin have witnessed huge protests over rising unemployment and falling wages that remained orderly thanks in part to the presence of vast numbers of riot police. If you inserted orange pins at these locations -- none as yet in the United States -- your map would already look aflame with activity. And if you're a gambling man or woman, it's a safe bet that this map will soon be far better populated with red and orange pins.

More...

Are you beginning to get a sense of scale on this thing?

[edit on 27-2-2009 by loam]

One more today:

Russia's Putin warns against economic protests

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin warned opposition critics on Friday not to use the economic crisis as an excuse to challenge his government and told them to abide by the law.

Unrest across Russia over economic upheaval has been muted, with the biggest protests so far taking place in the Far East port of Vladivostok where hundreds were arrested in January demonstrations over car tax.

Speaking at a meeting with leaders of Russia's dominant political party, United Russia, ahead of regional elections this weekend, Putin said that criticism of the Russian government during a crisis was allowed, but only within the laws.

Doesn't sound like things would be too healthy if you grumble over there.