Global Rioting Potential? The looming meltdown., page 1
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Topic started on 28-3-2008 @ 03:16 AM by loam
Things just may have gotten a whole lot worse...





Jump in rice price fuels fears of unrest

Rice prices jumped 30 per cent to an all-time high on Thursday, raising fears of fresh outbreaks of social unrest across Asia where the grain is a staple food for more than 2.5bn people.

The increase came after Egypt, a leading exporter, imposed a formal ban on selling rice abroad to keep local prices down, and the Philippines announced plans for a major purchase of the grain in the international market to boost supplies. Global rice stocks are at their lowest since 1976.

While prices of wheat, corn and other agricultural commodities have surged since late 2006, the increase in rice prices only started in January.

More...



The article continues:



The Egyptian export ban formalises a previously poorly enforced curb and follows similar restrictions imposed by Vietnam and India, the world’s second- and third-largest exporters. Cambodia, a small seller, also on Thursday announced an export ban.

These foreign sales restrictions have removed about a third of the rice traded in the international market.

...

Rice prices have doubled since January...




Here's a look at what the production has looked like relative to prices:



You'll note, the chart ends in 2007.

The following article was also published in December of 2007:



According to director general of the Philippines-based International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), the world is already eating more rice than is harvested annually and stocks are at their lowest levels since the early to mid-1970s, when food shortages triggered famine in some Asian countries.

Nearly half the planet's 6.6 billion people depend on rice to survive and demand for the grain is expected to increase 50 % by 2030. Average rice prices have nearly doubled to around $325 PMT in the past six years.


Link.



So, prices have doubled in the previous six years, and nearly doubled again in the past two months, with a single 30% jump in one day!

Ouch!

The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) issued a statement last week indicating "surging demand from explosive economic growth in China and India, the world's principal rice producers and consumers, have drained global stocks."

They continue:



...apart from climate changes, the recent supply shocks are being compounded by longer-term pressures as more and more land is being converted for houses and factories, while water is diverted for industrial use.





According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, total global rice stocks are estimated to be near 75 million metric tons. (Link.)

See also,

'Worrisome signs' for global rice crop

Global rice ending stocks continue to fall

And there is already trouble in the streets...



Grain prices soar globally: Rice shortages are appearing across Asia. In Egypt, the Army is now baking bread to curb food riots.

Bangkok, Thailand - - Rice farmers here are staying awake in shifts at night to guard their fields from thieves. In Peru, shortages of wheat flour are prompting the military to make bread with potato flour, a native crop. In Egypt, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso food riots have broken out in the past week.



“It has reached a critical stage where you do have food riots in a dozen countries or some related disturbance,” Danny Leipziger, the World Bank’s Vice President for poverty reduction and economic management.

Philippine communist rebels vow to step up attacks amid looming food crisis

And this may just be the start:

Rice prices become a ticking time bomb for Asian countries

Fears of unrest rise across Asia as rice price surges 30% in a day

Rising rice prices spark concerns across Asia

Thailand braces for rice crisis

Already we have riots, hoarding, panic: the sign of things to come?







THE soaring price of rice and dwindling stockpiles of Asia's basic food are causing anxiety across the region. In particular the Philippines, a big, hungry country which cannot grow enough to feed itself, could be in trouble. The front pages of Manila's newspapers scream about a “rice crisis”, as politicians float drastic solutions, such as forcing the country's 100 leading firms to take up rice farming.

Link.



See also, Food Prices Soaring Worldwide

How Food Shortages Provoke Economic Nationalism: Tight food supplies threaten civil order but governmental responses have not helped

High grain prices having far-reaching impact

This isn't looking very good, now is it?

Look at this too (written just five months ago): US Food Riots Much Closer Than You Think.

The implications of this growing crisis are indeed disturbing.

Slow train wreck anyone?

...maybe not so slow.

[edit on 28-3-2008 by loam]


reply posted on 28-3-2008 @ 08:35 AM by loam
Here is what China is doing this morning:



Beijing to spend more on agriculture to curb inflation:
The central government decides to pay farmers more money to encourage them to improve basic food production. This in turn is raising fears about social unrest across the country.


Authorities have frozen retail prices of rice, cooking oil and other goods in an effort to rein in food costs that jumped 23.3 per cent year on year last month. But analysts warned that holding down prices paid to farmers would discourage them from raising production and easing shortages blamed for the increases.

...

Prices started to rise sharply in just two weeks last year as the mainland ran short of grain and pork, the country's staple meat.

The jump in food costs hit ordinary Chinese hard in a society where families spend up to half their incomes on food, creating panic and violent protests across the country.

More...




reply posted on 28-3-2008 @ 11:13 AM by alphabetaone
To further corroberate this point (great post btw Loam), Time Magazine, in November of 2007 published an article, based on reports by the UN FAO (Food and Agrcultural Organization) which then, underscored the need for action and it's possible consequences:


Is the world headed for a food crisis? India, Mexico and Yemen have seen food riots this year. Argentines boycotted tomatoes during the country's recent presidential elections when the vegetable became more expensive than meat; and in Italy, shoppers organized a one-day boycott of pasta to protest rising prices. In late October, the Russian government, hoping to ease tensions ahead of parliamentary elections early next year, announced a price freeze for milk, bread and other foods through the end of January.


To qualify their position, the FAO noted:


The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) reported last week that, at nearly $100 a barrel, the price of oil has sent the cost of food imports skyrocketing this year. Add in escalating crop prices, the FAO warned, and a direct consequence could soon be an increase in global hunger — and, as a consequence, increased social unrest. Faced with internal rumblings, "politicians tend to act to protect their own nationals rather than for the good of all," says Ali Ghurkan, a Rome-based FAO analyst who co-authored the report. Because of the lack of international cooperation, he adds, "Worldwide markets get tighter and the pain only lasts longer."


Even in November, they realized that Food was obviously going to be a huge problem based on the cost to actually import/export/transport, and that food reserves were at a 35 year low, underscoring that no easy or quick fix was in sight:


What's more, worldwide food reserves are at their lowest in 35 years, so prices are likely to stay high for the foreseeable future. "Past shocks have quickly dissipated, but that's not likely to be the case this time," says Ghurkan. "Supply and demand have become unbalanced, and... can't be fixed quickly."


And, when you throw in the fact that the ability to actually have a reserve has a percentage being redirected toward alternate fuels:


With one-quarter of the U.S. corn harvest in 2007 diverted towards biofuel production, the attendant rise in cereal prices has already had an impact on the cost and availability of food. Critics worry that the gold rush toward biofuels is taking away food from the hungry. Jean Ziegler, the U.N. Special Rapporteur on The Right to Food, recently described it as a "crime against humanity" to convert food crops to fuel, calling for a five-year moratorium on biofuel production.


Time Magazine Article Source


You could certainly have a recipe for disaster when those that are hungry decide to fight to feed their families is far superior to driving their BMW's



AB1



reply posted on 28-3-2008 @ 04:01 PM by Rockpuck
reply to post by infinite



Then one must ask ones self. Is that a bad thing?

Seriously.

Is it? Though.. it won't be an equal lowering of population.. as it is agreed the Western World will not see these problems.

However, according to TIMES on CNN, more and more people are resorting to food banks and soup kitchens..

The fast rising population now using these institutions for the first time is the Middle class family. Frightening indeed.. homelessness and unemployment as well are rising.. steadily.. so perhaps we have a false sense of security..


reply posted on 28-3-2008 @ 05:55 PM by infinite
reply to post by deltaboy



Unlikely.



Then one must ask ones self. Is that a bad thing?


I hate to say, but you will agree with me, this what happens when you have an over populated world with limited resources and a weak infrastructure to deal with it.


reply posted on 28-3-2008 @ 11:14 PM by ladysweet12u
reply to post by Rockpuck



That is the truth. We absolutly do have a false sense of security and it should never be taken lightly.


reply posted on 29-3-2008 @ 12:17 AM by Rockpuck
reply to post by 19DCW71



actually .....

history tells us men will sooner keel over dead, along side their starving children before they make a peep.

the White Boys of Ireland where about as radical as they got during the worst famine in modern Western history..

Essentially nothing more then a scare tactic against local land owners.. nothing came of it, and most members died, along with their families.. plenty of groups got the weapons, got the funding, but did noting.

Mostly because the rich where complacent, and the poor died.

No.. a hungry man is a weak man. nothing more, nothing less.


reply posted on 29-3-2008 @ 10:52 AM by 19DCW71
Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to
post by 19DCW71



actually .....

history tells us men will sooner keel over dead, along side their starving children before they make a peep.

the White Boys of Ireland where about as radical as they got during the worst famine in modern Western history..

Essentially nothing more then a scare tactic against local land owners.. nothing came of it, and most members died, along with their families.. plenty of groups got the weapons, got the funding, but did noting.

Mostly because the rich where complacent, and the poor died.

No.. a hungry man is a weak man. nothing more, nothing less.


Well i can see your point so I will take thet as a lesson and learn from history.Not to let myself becom hungry and weak.Now that I have the knowledge,all I have to do is apply it and that shouldn't be to hard considering todays media.You can't even fart w'out the world knowing it. So at the first signs of any problems, I apply my lesson.

I also wouldn't expect anyone to do anything anyway.This whole country is trained and conformed to the laws of this world. I follow my own beliefs and ideal,so I don't act as the masses.I follow my instinct, intuition and my Holy Spirit. Besides if it is the will of The God I believe in, then no man can stop his fate and I'll aceopt it,like it or not.

No.. a hungry man is a weak man. nothing more, nothing less.

I have to disagree. A hungry man is a man who in desperation WILL take measures to not be a starving man.

A starving man is a weak man.Nothing more nothing less..



[edit on 29-3-2008 by 19DCW71]

[edit on 29-3-2008 by 19DCW71]
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