Situation X: Yellowstone Eruption

So there is a thread over in the Breaking Alternative News board HERE regarding the possibility of the Yellowstone Cauldera blowing, spewing several cubic miles of ash in a Supervolcano event. Ashfall would go as far as New York. Where I am at in the midwest we would have several inches of volcanic ash.

Anyone breathing in dangerous amounts of ash would sufficate due to the concrete like substance that would form in thier lungs. The sky would darken, and we would be plunged into a Volcanic Winter scenario.

Not the end of life as we know it, just the end to a lot of lives.

There was a challenge to us on the Survival boards to be able to come up with preperations for this occurring:

Originally posted by mentalempire
reply to post by syrinx high priest

 

To those survivalists...I think there really isn't any way to prepare for something like this.

Shall we try to prove them wrong? Here is a scenario for us to work on, I'll do some more research on the theoretical effects of the eruption and post more as we go.

Already I have one preperation for anyone downwind of the eruption:

Have filter masks in your Bug out Bag, that will filter out the vocanic ash particulates so they don't end up in your lungs.

to survive in the danger zone, ie where the ash fall is greatest, i think the best way to rough it out is the same way as a nuclear event. stock up with food and hide out in a concrete, underground bunker of some kind with a recirculating, recyclable air supply.

there is no hope for those unfortunate people in the red zone, they will be blasted off the earth, or buried under feet of ash and volcanic rock.

in the long term, i think a migration would be best, as the sky would be covered in ash for many a year and as such, living in such an environment would be, as you said very toxic.

thats all i can think of really. this thing is pretty much a non radioactive super nuke waiting to go off, so the same precautions should be taken as a nuke attack.

I actually did the math on this once, there was a discussion a couple of years back on this very subject. In essence we were screwed. The danger from a volcano isn't the ash or magma. I mean it is a bit, but really, the biggest problem is the pyroclastic flow, the hot, poisonous gasses capable of melting steel within something like 2-3x the width of the caldera, and capable of killing animal life with poisons for a range almost as far as Texas.

Lemme see if I can track that post down.

Well my feelings on the matter are those which I have posted before, in these two threads:

Survival after Super Eruptions

Survival during Volcanic eruptions

Also, the best thing is to make sure that if there is a threat of an eruption on the Supereruption scale, it is best to ensure a large number of miles are between you and the volcano. That above anything else is a good increase on your odds of survival. Though I wonder what the panic would be like.

From the yellowstone monitoring site, here's a chart that shows the startling increase in vertical movement. The third of the three charts is of interest. This is from the area of the caldera.

www.uusatrg.utah.edu...

More locations can be found here.

www.uusatrg.utah.edu...

Does anyone know how to imbed the image of the third chart?

Okay, rather than necropost a 2 year old thread back to life, I'm going to just copy the relevant information from my previous posts, and re-organize it into a post for this thread. Here, for your enjoyment, is how badly we are screwed:

Originally posted by Countermeasures
If the american government would use halve the money and the effort put in the DOD , surely they could up something with a containment plan to limit some of the effects???

A valid question, but sadly, one where the answer is "no".

We're not talking about something like a drought, that has a solution, or intruding biology ruining an ecology, which can be prevented with controls on water-locks and customs.

We're talking about thousands upon thousands of cubic kilometers of superheated gas, that will belch out of the Earth and roll across the landscape, for hundreds of miles in every direction, incinerating everything it its path. This is actually the worst part of a volcano. What kills people is rarely the magma, it's the gas.

After that, there is a combination of massive earthquakes that rip the ground open for tens to hundreds of miles, all in an attempt to let the molten rock flow free, so the tension in the Earth can be relieved.

You can't stop the gasses; the normal temperature range is 800-1200 C, which at the high-end is enough to melt iron. You might, be able to build enough of a barrier out of tungsten (which requires 3399 Celsius to melt), but there is the sheer volume of gas to take into consideration. Considering the size of the Yosemite Caldera, and previous volcanic history, you would need to construct a wall, all the way around, taller than the tallest skyscrapers, that would measure roughly 500 miles in circumference, to contain the gasses long enough to cool. Failing that, I suppose if one could find a way to artificially induce a storm system powerful enough to pull down super-cooled air from the upper atmosphere, onto the caldera, within seconds of the gas eruption, that might stop the gasses and freeze the magma, but then you've just plunged America into the next ice age.

Even then, it only affects the surface, not the deep down problem, which is a pressure imbalance. At best, you stave off the problem long enough for it to erupt outside the known perimeter, where the ground is weak enough to allow it to happen all over again.

The idea that the U.S. Government is somehow responsible for Super-Volcanos erupting, or that they could somehow put a stop to it by cutting 50% of the defense budget, unfortunately just has no valid basis. A volcano is a force of nature, and can no more be stopped than the sun can be stopped from shining.

Originally posted by soficrow
Do you think that there will be an adequate warning before something happens? Like, enough time to evacuate people? ...Is there any point? Would we be looking at a kind of population triage?

Well, there was actually a special on Yosemite National park and volcanoes on Discovery or some such channel. They asked "So, would we get any early warning signs from the caldera before it blows?" The good news is that, yes, they would certainly see the early warning signs. The bad news is that the early warning signs started about 3 years ago.

The early warning signs are the part where you can predict that, yes, it's most likely going to blow sometime in the foreseeable future, but at that point everything is a guessing game. I believe that the average time from the "It's definitely happening very soon" and actual eruption is about 30-45 minutes. At best case scenario, maybe an hour or two.

The early warning signs (minor quakes, steam from vents, mudslides, etc) are usually when people keep a watch on the area, people living close to the volcano usually go on holiday, and those living in the vicinity keep watch on the area for the scientists to say "Okay, it's happening in about half an hour!"

The thing is, those early warning signs can last anywhere from days to years. And the late warning signs are sometimes skipped altogether, especially if the cone is going to explode.

So, technically, it could be tomorrow, or it could be 1000+ years from now. The only real "we should probably get out of the area" warnings are already happening, but the "Oh, crap, run!!!" warning will give everyone about 30mins to 2 hours warning...maybe... But considering that it takes time to go through channels, get the word out, the damage that will be done to infrastructure like roads, and the panic of the people, I'd say pretty much anyone living within 300 miles of Yosemite will not get out in time. They may die of old age before it happens, but when it happens, you can pretty much count on them being among the casualties that will never be found (gasses that can melt iron will pretty much disintegrate a human body no problem).

Those living 300+ miles away from the caldera I would give a 50/50 chance, but my money would still be on the volcano.

My instinct is that even if Yosemite blew in the worst way possible, the world would not end. Life wouldn't end (well, actually, a lot of lives would end, but not life as we know it).

For one thing, as a genus, we've been through this a lot. Depending on your scientific viewpoint of which genus constitutes humanity (Ardipithecenes
, Australopithecus or Homo), humans have been around for 2.5 to 5+ million years. At an average rate of one supervolcanic eruption every 200,000 years, we've been through it anywhere from 12-25 times. It's practically old hat!

So, as a genus, we'll probably survive. I think it's an interesting coincidence, though, that our hominid ancestors appear to have gone through a change roughly every 200,000 years once you get to the last 2 million years. Perhaps, as a species forced to adapt to new conditions after the supervolcano, a new species will develop, and Homo Sapiens will become another museum piece. Or maybe it's just coincidence.

Anyway, here's what little reputable material is found in regards to what we can expect from a Yellowstone blast:

• First, the pyroclastic flow (superheated gas and ash) would play havoc with the western half of the U.S.:
  
  
  
  1. It would kill all life within roughly a 300 mile radius, in a matter of minutes.
     
     
  2. It would most likely melt or incinerate anything with a boiling point equal to or less than that of iron.
     
     
  3. After about 300 miles the heat would gradually start dying out, leaving people alive, but suffering first, second, and third degree burns.
     
     
  4. About that time, the shockwave should hit. There's really no way to predict what kind of damage will happen, but it will likely leave almost anyone in the western half of the U.S. deafened, or with severely damaged hearing. Ironically, this will be the least of the troubles, because...
     
     
  5. Though the gas has cooled enough to only scald people, for the remainder of the roughly 600 mile radius, people will have to also deal with their air being poisoned and acidic. Those not killed outright will soon have a very bad day, however, because...
     
     
  6. The next effect will primarily cover twice the 600 mile radius in ash, most likely in an eliptical pattern to follow windflows, up to about 4 meters. A good portion of this ash will also come from the previously incinerated landscape. Those not killed by heat, poison, and acid, will now find breathing and moving extremely difficult as they wade through a 12-foot sea of fine powder.
     
  
  
• Global Effects would be felt the same day and continue to worsen for the next 3-14 days, depending on the weather patterns. The would include things like.
  
  
  
  1. Little, if any, government assistance. The largest disaster FEMA has ever had to face is 9/11, which stretched their resources to the limit. The affected area of the supervolcano is an estimated 10 million times greater than that of 9/11. To date, FEMA does not have a contingency plan for a disaster on the scale of a supervolcano. Though they have shown an interest in developing one, it is doubtful they will ever have the resources capable of dealing with such an event. So you might want to be prepared, either with supplies, with guns, and/or with your god.
     
     
  2. Another problem that will have to be dealt with is the gas sulphur dioxide which forms sulphuric acid when it gets into the stratosphere. This has two main effects, one is blotting out the sun, the other is, of course, sulfuric acid rain.
     
     
  3. Within a day or so, temperatures would plummet 15-20 degrees, on average, across the globe. While this wouldn't exactly cause the end of the world, it is likely to turn many temperate climates into arctic ones. Strangely, the greatest differences would be in the southern hemisphere, though thanks to the normally high temperature, it would probably make them a cool average of 72-degrees year-round, thus remove San Diego's monopoly on such temperatures.
     
     
  4. Since most foodcrops depend upon a particular temperature and sunlight range, and most foodcrops are grown in temperate climates, and the breadbasket of the U.S. will be under a 12-foot layer of ash, and the damage to global infrastructure, one can expect that a lot of people will starve--roughly 1 billion, at best estimates.
     
     
  5. Travel using engines would be severely limited for a while, though the time and location would depend largely on the ashfall. The enormous amount of particulates in the air would not only impair visibility on an unprecedented scale, but also clog air filters within a very short amount of time.
     
     
  6. Anyone with breathing problems or allergies can count on a miserable life. Those with perfectly healthy lungs can count on developing breathing problems and allergies.
     
     
  7. Most of North America would become uninhabitable until the ash had been beaten down by the acid rain, and hardened enough to walk on. Even then, the poisons within the ash, the topsoil covered with volcanic rock, combined with the blotted out sunlight and lower temperatures, would prevent any sort of serious agriculture and turn most of America and Canada into 3rd world countries.
     
     
  8. Global weather patterns would undoubtably change dramatically, though the full extent can only be guessed at. Between the temperature drops, the addition of acid and particulates to the atmosphere, the sheer loss of plant life, animal life, refreezing of polar caps (resulting in increased saline density in the ocean, thus changine the trade currents), there are too many variables to take into consideration. Suffice it to say that one man's trash will be come another man's treasure, and vice versa.
     
     
  9. Economic Devastation. The majority of the world's wealth and commerce is concentrated in America, Europe, and China. America will be mostly destroyed and uninhabitable Much of Europe will be emmigrated from due to the artic change in climate, and the same can be said of China. Smaller economies will find their cash crops die off, tourism will practically cease to exist, the loss of infrastructure and communication, complete burial of solid assets under tons of ash, and the sheer loss of human life (including their knowledge, skills, labor, etc) will cause an almost total collapse of the global economy.
     
  
  

Conclusion: The human race will continue, but the habitable areas of the planet will be greatly reduced, countless lives and resources will be lost, and entire countries will fall.

As for the food problem, I would say hydroponics will play a large part in the process, as fish will likely be poisonous, or die out from some key part of the food chain gone missing. A bigger problem is going to be fresh water, which again, is going to be hard to predict, given the change in weather patterns.

Going by the previous established Situation X Scale, this would almost certainly qualify as a weaker Class 5 Natural Disaster event. The death toll pan-species across the globe would be so massive that it would probably have to be approximated in terms of percentage of life on Earth, but I'm pretty sure "humans" and life on Earth would continue in some form or another.

I think I figured it out. Here is the chart, look at the third, vertical.



Should Yellowstone be evacuated now?

Originally posted by logicize
Should Yellowstone be evacuated now?

Well, yes and no.

Yes, in that there will be no time to evacuate anyone within 300 miles of the volcano. Even with a 3 hour (at absolute best) warning, there's no way anyone could make it out in time. Living in that radius is a death sentance, delayed only by the whim of mother nature.

No, in that it could be years, perhaps even decades, centuries, or millenia, before it decides to erupt. You could evacuate the area, and find that nothing happens, for a very long time, just like you could fail to evacuate it and it could erupt hours from now.

This paradigm is an almost literal translation of Schroedinger's Cat, but from inside the box. In order to measure the forces accurately enough to get a warning and confirmation that it is going to blow, you've got to be within the radius that will die when it finally does. Any given moment between now and any point in the future could be the eruption. And an attempt to invasively determine how close it is to blowing might trigger the eruption itself.

I'm lucky enough to live in Texas, but once the warning comes that it's about to blow, the wife and I are going to pack up the kiddo and head south as fast as the roads will take us, bringing our survival gear along for the ride.

My advise, live more than 600 miles away from the caldera, and have a game plan ready to immediately travel in the opposite direction of the caldera when the moment comes. You might still die in the aftermath, but at least you'd have a fighting chance.

I would think all of Texas would be relatively safe. It's not in the path of the jet stream from Yellowstone. I think the biggest concern would be downwind from the volcano. Beyond 500 miles to the north, west, or south should be ok. I live much further than 600 miles, but I'm in the jet stream so there probably will be at least some direct imact here, not of debris, but of ash fallout.

As for worldwide impact, I think it has the potential to lower earth's temps a degree or two for a year or two. That should make Al Gore happy.

I was driving just to the south of there a few months ago, on the 80 and a yellowstone eruption was on my mind. It's been a couple of years since I have been in the park, it's worth the risk of eruption to see it if you ask me.

Originally posted by logicize
I would think all of Texas would be relatively safe. It's not in the path of the jet stream from Yellowstone. I think the biggest concern would be downwind from the volcano.

Ah, but for a few small problems:

1.) We won't be operating under the same normal wind conditions. A super-volcano will almost certainly change the direction and speed of the winds as the 1000-1200 mile-wide flow of extremely hot mass and gas fires upward into the atmosphere. Add to that the additional "Changing" factors, like the vaporization of lakes and rivers into loose percipitation, the earthquakes, the added "weight" of air due to particulate saturation... there are so many factors involved I can't begin to guess where the winds will take the gasses, ash, etc. The idea that we can predict where the "bad things" will happen, based off of current wind and weather patterns is going to be highly approximate at best.

2.) We can use historical data to kinda-sorta guess, but truth be told, we don't know that the previous eruptions weren't just "regular" eruptions and that the next one won't be a "mega cone explosion", like Krakatoa. Yellowstone's "cone" involves several states.

3.) The shockwave is not to be underestimated. Like I said, there's a good chance that even those not scalded/poisoned by the event will become deafened or severely hearing impaired as a result. Krakatoa was heard from 3000 miles away. The distance from LA to Boston is a paltry 2600 miles. The comparative size difference of a 1500 sq mile caldera compared to the less than 20 square mile caldera of Krakatoa. I'm not sure if the size of the volcano is directly proportional to the decibels we can expect from an explosion, but I imagine the relation is close enough that anyone in America is going to have some serious hearing problems afterward.

4.) The backlash of atmospheric change is going to be pretty bad the closer you get to the eruption site. Even as far as Texas, I can only begin to imagine what would happen weather-wise.

5.) The sheer panic of humanity outside the death zones will be the worst problem. Between refuges from the volcanic area that barely escape with their lives, flooding the hospitals, the complete destruction of infrastructure to transport goods across the US, prison doors being thrown wide open, and just run of the mill arsehats trying to take advantage of a bad situation, trying to loot and such, then add in the religious nuts...

Oh hell no am I doing anything but getting in the car and driving as far south as possible as soon as the warnings on Yellowstone's eruption starts. Worst case scenario if we're wrong is that the wife and I lose our jobs for absent without leave.

reply to post by thelibra


actuly its a good idea to leave out of the danger zone than being in it,

if we all leave early it might save live's if this thing go's,

if my study's are correct, and this thing did blow it will blow agin, and even more force than last time about 4% more force than last time.

let's just say its going to leave a creater about the size eaqul to half of the usa.



im looking for some help on more info for yellowstone, just to get more fact's for a good worning.

reply to post by DropInABucket


If you in the midwest if Yellowstone was to go off. You'd be dead. Pure and simple. From what I'd understand we'd get pyroclastic flows as far as Houston.

I think your first premis is optimistic.
You say that the first thing is a filter mask in your bugout kit.

I dealt with cleaning up some resources from the Mt Pinatubo volcano disaster for the Govt. I really doubt that you could filter that stuff without clogging extremely rapidly, It would be turning to concrete on your filters and exhaust ports from the moisture of your breath. Such fine spikey glass particles build up extremely rapidly. The stuff is almost like a kind of micro snow the way it interlocks.

You might get a few hours from a filter, but you need to have the ability to refresh your gear under safehouse conditions. That would mean some kind of bubble tent which you could use as a clean room. Then you need to maintain that also.

Aside from that I think a much more likely scenario than a yellowstone erruption would be the one I lay out in the thread:
Could bird flu be the next world changing Black Death?

Wow living in AZ and being sheltered from almost every natural disaster I really never thought about a scenario like this. My prep etc is based more toward a man-made situation. In an event like this I guess I would bug out and head south of the border till the truck died. Very eye opening in most sitx situations I am prepared to hunker down dig in and defend. In a scenario such as this survival = far away as fast as possible putting as many mountain ranges between you and it as possible. Although thinking about it who is to say being close to an ocean down by Mexico would be a good idea who knows what the water levels would do.

Here is a really good way of surviving a mega-volcano;

Move outside of the blast radius and learn how to deal with the effects of ash, incredibly powerful lightning storms caused by the pyroclastic shockwave and the earthquakes.

Essentially, even if you live outside of the blast radius, it won't be a walk in the park.

But if you live inside it, and you have no warning because of any particular reason (i.e; sudden malfunction of seismic monitoring equipment because of overload) you are going to die.

What a terrifying scenario.

While reading the posts in this thread, the thought occurred to me that the reason why there are NO reports of human astronauts visiting us from the future is because our modern ever advancing technological civilization ended at some point before man learned how to time travel.

So my question is, how many years are we away from finding out how to do that? 50? 100? 1,000? 1 million? etc...
(But according to this physicist, we may be able to time travel sometime within this century. www.physorg.com...]

But whatever the case may be, it would seem to me that we never were able to find out how to do that due to some kind of catastrophic event ... or a few of them that wiped out modern human civilization as we know it BEFORE we advanced to the point where man learned how to time travel.

Just thoughts on all of this...Things I've never really pondered on before... but interesting topic and thanks Libra for posting that information again... much food for thought. Terrifying to think that it's not a matter of IF.... but WHEN.


[edit on 6-3-2008 by Palasheea]

Pyroplastic flows would probably only reach maybe 60 miles. They aren't the big danger. It's the release of trillions of tons of dust and gases into the atmosphere that's the problem. The last time Yellowstone erupted it happened during the summer. They knows this from fossil mammals found dead under 20 feet of volcanic ash in the Northern Great Plains. A Yellowstone eruption would lay as much as 3-6 inches of ash as far south as Texas which would basically kill the bread basket of the modern world. Millions would starve to death. The Missouri and Mississippi river valleys would be choked off with ash and for several years the runnoff from spring melt will create a huge inland freshwater sea in the Midwest until the hydraulic pressure finally carves a new river bed. Another possible side effect of the eruption would be the triggering of earthquakes along the New Madrid Fault or the triggering the Long Valley Caldera in California which also seems to be overdue for eruption.

I live in SE SD. and there have been many friends of mine that have kind of triangulated the cause and effect scenario, if this were too happen, even my neck of the woods will be able too feel the after shock, and I am currently 450+ mi. away.
The Rapid City and Lead areas were on a tv interview and openly stated "There is nothing we could do, we are just not prepared for that kind of devistation." and was the fire chief and chief of police concurring with each other over the topic.
Eventually, it would trek around the world creating a veritable nueclear winter, it would effect continents all over the world. There would be famine and disease not to mention starvation and malnutrition for the rest of the known civilization for we are the "Bread basket of the world", I am not sure of the name of the documentary, and if you looked it up, I am sure you or someone could find it with statements and fact based evidences of what would happen "WHen" this does occur.
I for one don't look forward to the day it happens, but gas masks and the like would be rendered useless and more than likely the demise of the individuals using such apparatise.
2012 is around the corner, maybe it will be a part of the big show, and if nothing happens then, we have Yellow Stone to put us back to the "Hurry up and Wait" catagories of eventual cataclisms that it has had in the past, and surely will have again. Just as an earlier poster had put it, "With much more measurable force than before."

Well, if I'm fortunate enough to die before any such scenario occurs, I will most definitely NOT reincarnate back to this planet if I'm given a choice on the matter. That's for sure!

One wonders if it's even ethical these days to have babies!! I fear for my son's generation and thereafter ....

reply to post by thelibra


You are right in your position of thinking there is no logical basis for US government to have done anything significant to cause a supervolcano eruption, but that's where you personally are wrong.

US government is not always logical. There is a clear pattern of evidence contrary to your personal belief. You have a delightful innocent boyscout attitude, praise the Lord. US government does not, as it not only admits, it brags.

Just because they are not rational, it doesn't mean we need to be irrational nor illogical. US government leadership is very predictable, as is physics, and as is nature.

See NewsWhiteHouse.com for pertinent patterns' charts, illustrations, and details.

Posted by PCS Manager.