Dangerous Hurricane Dean..UPDATES

Hellmutt edit to add this new advisory (August 19) :

1100 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N...78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB

As of the 2pm advisory Dean had rapidly intensified to category 3 strength and there is nothing stopping this storm from reaching category 5 strength. The last I saw the GFDL model has made a major shift to the left (east) taking Dean towards Louisiana coast. The best I can find so far comes from wunderground.com and it indicates the storm makes it through the pass between the Yucatan and Cuba as a category 5 storm with winds at one point hitting 156kts which I believe is 180mph. Naturally this path could and likely will change but this is the kind of monster we are looking at. New Orleans is trying to recover from Katrina and I find it unlikely the city will ever recover if it were to take a direct strike from a storm like Dean.

I'll post more information later when the updates come out and the models update projected paths.

[edit on 18-8-2007 by asala]

[edit on 2007/8/19 by Hellmutt]

reply to post by Indy


it is important to note that a refinery fire in Pascagoula Mississippi shut down that Chevron refinery (one of the largest in the nation BTW) and if this hurricane damages the offshore platforms again this could be very bad news for the price of gas...add the declining dollar and bad markets and we could be in for a very, very rough time ahead..

refinery story:
www.wlox.com...


[edit on 17-8-2007 by darkheartrising]

A direct hit by Dean would spell "doom" for south La. The fact is, much of the barrier is silted in from the Mississippi River, and then scoured by recent storms, that the old wetlands are in real danger.

And N O couldn't survive as a city if they get another major storm so soon. The levee system won't hold up, and everyone knows this.

I wonder if the Feds (FEMA) are ready to see this?

Martial Law?

reply to post by NGC2736


as for me i already have reservations at the marriott in houston..as they say here..."i'm a gone pecan"..and yes it is not pronounced "pee-can" it rhymes with "gone"

Dean has finally formed that infamous donut around an eye.



Storm Tracker Visible

Storm Tracker IR

Storm Tracker Dvorak

Storm Tracker Water Vapor

View any of the feed loops and you have a link to download the animated gif file. Hope you find this useful.

Originally posted by Indy
Dean has finally formed that infamous donut around an eye.

Mmmmmmmmm.......donuts!

Looks like this is going to be a big one.
Here's hoping it doesn't cause to many problems.

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:
Hurricane Local Statement for DEAN

Puerto Rico / V.I.

DEAN Graphics Archive

I have only just heard about this one,

Scary stuff, thanks for the update,

It's a Cat 4 now:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...


...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.

It looks like it is going to make a direct hit on Jamaica as a 4 or possibly even a 5.





[edit on 8/17/2007 by djohnsto77]

[edit on 8/17/2007 by djohnsto77]

[edit on 8/17/2007 by djohnsto77]

8pm advisory has Dean listed as a Cat 4. It is expected to move into even warmer waters and continue to strengthen. In the last 12 mins of watching the Weather Channel the wind speed has already increased by 9 mph.

Dean will probably really tear apart the islands, the footage should be unbelievable and unfortunately I think we can expect a fair amount of lives to be lost. I also would not be shocked to see it take a turn in the Gulf and make landfall in US.

This storm will be as bad if not worse for the island than Gilbert was and Gilbert was terrible. The only thing islanders can hope for is that the eye passes on the north side of the island. But I don't think that is very likely.

reply to post by Indy


What is the difference in what part of the island the eye passes over? I'm not trying to be smart or anything, I am really curious. Does it make a difference and if so how?

reply to post by section8citizen


I'm going to guess, without checking the topography of the region, and say that the mountainous region is much more preferable when it comes to the eventuality of US landfall. Mountains will further weaken the storm, compared to normal landfall, and give US landfall locations a weaker storm.

reply to post by section8citizen


Yes, there is a strong and weak side of the storm, as it moves west the strong part will be to the north with the weak side to the south, so if the eye passes north of the island, it will be only affected by the weaker side of the storm. If the eye passes just to the south, it will get the strongest winds and storm surge.



[edit on 8/17/2007 by djohnsto77]

[edit on 8/17/2007 by djohnsto77]

Originally posted by Indy
I'm honestly amazed that I can't find a thread dedicated to this subject yet. But then again I can't find a real forum search feature so who knows.

We were waiting for you Indy!!! Glad to see your return.....


This storm definitely gained power since the last report I saw earlier today.

At that time it was "projected" to be CAT4 by SUNDAY, is it correct that it is CAT 4 NOW?

visit Storm2k for further updates on dean. most of the ppl right now predict that this hurricane will reach category 5 and could possibly make landfall in the U.S. next week. if this turns out true you are in serious trouble...



the satellite image basically speaks for itself...

edit: the winds have reached 135mph now which makes dean a
Category 4 Hurricane already......


[edit on 17-8-2007 by EBE154]

Thanks for the replies everyone. That's a big help and I never realized that.

JacKat: Yes at 8pm EST the Weather Channel reported the storm as a Cat 4 with 125 mph winds. It is interesting to note that by 8:11pm EST the Weather Channel was reporting the wind speeds at 134mph. It is 8:44 now and CNN just reported wind speeds at 134mph.

Indy and the rest of the forum who have contributed to this very important thread, if I had the ability to applaude you I would.


Believe me when I say that my energy and prayers will be with you until this is over.

This is what the August 18th warnings have been all about.

Blessings and be well.

This hurricane is going to Jamaica... then its going to Cuba.... then to the Yucatan, on to Texas... Louisiana....
and then its going to WASHINGTON. YEAAAAAWW!

-Hurricane Dean

Saw this on Accuweather.com:
Dean Now a Major Hurricane, Jamaica Threatened

Puerto Rico - Visisble Loop