I live in Sugar Land, TX; south west of Houston. During TS Erin, we got about 3 inches of rain or so. It was fairly intense and it was amazing how many people drove into flooded streets like some idiot deer staring at headlights.

After our somewhat recent experiences with Katrina and Rita, I'm wasting no time getting ready BEFORE this thing hits the gulf.

I have plenty of batteries, flashlights, a weather radio, and PLENTY of stored water to last about a week or so.

Saturday will be food day. Depending on what happens, it may also be lumber day.

I'll make a quick trip to storage to grab what is dear and leave the rest to nature.

In an amazingly short time, Dean is now at 145 mph. At 156, its a cat 5 and nothing but warmer water lays ahead in it's path.

Does anybody want to guess what the top wind speed may be if it DOESN'T hit Mexico on it's way into the Gulf?

Saturday, I'll be filling up my truck and if it looks like we have to bug out, Im out of here.

I actually have a non-interstate escape route. Other then crossing some interstates, there is no interstate travel and major cities are avoided as much as possible.

If things go south and common law starts to break apart, I want to be in the country, not the city.

Houston is already having contra flow meetings. Whatever. I'll believe in that when I see pigs sprout wings and fly.

Once you get on a government controlled contra flow, you just TRY to exit. Go for it and good luck to ya!

By Sunday night, I want to be as ready as need be just in case Dean heads north-west.

I was caught off guard when New Orleans moved to Houston and again, shame on me, when Houston had it's very near miss with Hurricane Rita.

This time, I'll be more then ready.

So, bring it!

Actually, dont!

Originally posted by AllSeeingI
This hurricane is going to Jamaica... then its going to Cuba.... then to the Yucatan, on to Texas... Louisiana....
and then its going to WASHINGTON. YEAAAAAWW!

-Hurricane Dean

hahaha.

Man, I can't believe I haven't heard of this storm yet?! I live in Tampa, I sure hope it doesn't do a back bend. yeesh, I hate Florida.

Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean Dean


"Not only are we going to Jamaica, We're going to Puerto Rico and the Domician Republic and Cuba and The Yucatan and we're going to the Gulf and Texas and New Orleans. And then we're going to Washington, D.C., to take back the White House. Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaah."

Antar: I see now where you misunderstood the wind speed on that link that you supplied. They give the speed in Kilometers per hour, right now their current report is 231 kmh sustained winds with 287 kmh wind gusts.

Im getting reports now of sustained winds of 150 mph with the pressure at around 930.
5 more mph in wind speed and and it becomes a category 5 storm, which is the highest rating for a hurricane, by the morning report we should see that.

As young as this hurricane is, Im gonna go out on a limb and make a prediction that we will see Hurricane Dean break, possibly shatter, some records this weekend. Thats right you heard it here first guys n gals, lmao.

btw, once storms get this large, outside systems pretty much have no influence on them. high pressures and upper level lows are not able to influence storms of this magnitude. This isnt an opinion, it comes from meteorologists.

[edit on 8/18/2007 by Kr0n0s]

Originally posted by AllSeeingI
This hurricane is going to Jamaica... then its going to Cuba.... then to the Yucatan, on to Texas... Louisiana....
and then its going to WASHINGTON. YEAAAAAWW!

-Hurricane Dean

I knew that somebody was going to do that. XD

But yeah, I hate to be one of the uber paranoid-type, but you don't think this has something to do with the Sun and Venus being inferior conjunctioned on August 18th, do you? I doubt it, but you can never be too careful.

As of 2am Dean has sustained winds of 150mph. Central pressure is down to 930mb. It has slowed from 23mph to 18mph with the forward progress. While the slowing of forward speed doesn't sound like much it can have a huge impact on if/when the storm turns more north of west-northwest. It can mean the difference between making landfall along the Yucatan peninsula or missing it and making it clean into the Gulf of Mexico.

Making it clean into the Gulf is a bad thing. A high probability path would be to take it somewhere Corpus Christi and Galveston. As you may have noticed in a previous image of Gulf sea surface temperatures the storm would travel a great distance over the warmest of waters anywhere in this region of the world. It would absolutely support category five winds all the way to the Texas coast. Only eye-wall replacement cycles and storm structure changes would weaken the storm before landfall. And even they you'd likely see the storm hit as a category four. I think by noon Saturday we will have a pretty good idea whether this storm is going to go straight into Mexico around Cozumel (again) or up into the Gulf and threaten land from Texas to Lousiana.

More tomorrow. I am off to bed.

Originally posted by Indy
As of 2am Dean has sustained winds of 150mph. Central pressure is down to 930mb. It has slowed from 23mph to 18mph with the forward progress. While the slowing of forward speed doesn't sound like much it can have a huge impact on if/when the storm turns more north of west-northwest. It can mean the difference between making landfall along the Yucatan peninsula or missing it and making it clean into the Gulf of Mexico.

Making it clean into the Gulf is a bad thing. A high probability path would be to take it somewhere Corpus Christi and Galveston. As you may have noticed in a previous image of Gulf sea surface temperatures the storm would travel a great distance over the warmest of waters anywhere in this region of the world. It would absolutely support category five winds all the way to the Texas coast. Only eye-wall replacement cycles and storm structure changes would weaken the storm before landfall. And even they you'd likely see the storm hit as a category four. I think by noon Saturday we will have a pretty good idea whether this storm is going to go straight into Mexico around Cozumel (again) or up into the Gulf and threaten land from Texas to Lousiana.

More tomorrow. I am off to bed.

Thanks Indy, good info. Good point about the eyewall replacement cycles, they do usually cause hurricanes problems. During the cycles, the hurricane will decrease in windspeed and then usually pick back up after the cycle is complete and what portion of the cycle the storm is in when it hits land depends on how much destruction is caused.
Katrina and Rita both went through quite a few of these during their reigns and Kat was in the middle of its cycle when it hit or it wouldve been much worse.

To Those members of ATS in the path of hurricane Dean, I just wanted to take this time to wish you all the best of luck. I hope everything goes ok and no one gets hurt. Lets hope this thing doesnt get any bigger then it already is. I know I'm making it sound like its the end of the world...but thats not my intention, my intention is just to let those of you know your in my prayers.

Anyone in the region should start thinking about what to do in case of emergency.

Ideally people would always be fairly prepared for an emergency but in todays busy world people tend to forget.

weren't there reports of flesh-eating bacteria in the gulf of mexico?

i might be going out on a limb here, but could this hurricane possibly evaporate some of the bacteria and literally rain it back down upon the region?