Dangerous Hurricane Dean..UPDATES

Tropical Storm Historical Tracking Map (for August)

Originally posted by darkheartrising
don't forget after the florida hurricanes you didn't have ghetto rats shooting at helicopters bringing them supplies and shooting at rescue workers...etc..
so taken in context the "kicking down doors and taking away weapons" in my book was justified after the hurricanes in N.Orleans.

darkheartrising, i think Kr0n0s is forgetting a lot of facts, and making some exagerations. Anyways one of those facts is that it was the weasel of the NO Mayor, Ray Nagin who gave the orders, with the backing of the chief of police of New Orleans, to disarm the NO residents. It was that same weasel who later claim "the CIA was going to try to kill him" as he tried to find ways to hide what he had done...

There was a lawsuit done by the NRA, and "the city of New Orleans" tried to dismiss the lawsuit, but U.S. District Judge Carl Barbier denied the city's motion and the lawsuit continued it's course. If i remember the NRA won the lawsuit.

Judge refuses New Orleans' request to dismiss NRA lawsuit
............
The suit says that during and after the Aug. 29 storm, "Mayor Nagin ordered the New Orleans police and other law enforcement entities under his authority to evict persons from their homes and to confiscate the lawfully possessed firearms."

By pursuing it, the NRA hopes to prevent any such action in the future, LaPierre said. The organization also hopes the court will order police to return guns in their possession to the rightful owners, he said.

In April, police made about 700 weapons available to owners. Those seeking a weapon must bring either a bill of sale or an affidavit with the weapon's serial number, which LaPierre called an "impossible requirement."

Police spokesman Sgt. Carlton L. Lewis said Wednesday he could not say how many weapons remained. He said people can still claim them.

In a prepared statement, city attorney Penya M. Moses-Fields said the city anticipates that additional pleadings will be filed on behalf of the mayor and superintendent in the near future.

www.katc.com...

The NO mayor, and the governor of Luisiana were the ones to blame for what happened during Katrina...

The mayor even continued trying to dismiss the lawsuit, because he knew the lawsuit would point the fingers and the evidence would show it was him who did it despite his claims on national TV that "the CIA was trying to silence him and they would try to kill him".....

[edit on 18-8-2007 by Muaddib]

Anyways, let's hope this hurricane does not land, but if it does, and it seems likely it will, good luck to those in the area where it hits.

Start preparing just in case, and look for ways out of your city where there is not much traffic normally.

Put an emergency kit together in your car/cars with some dry clothes, and even some rain gear, some bottled water, any medications you and your family need, some aspirin/advil/tylenol, some alcohol and first aid kid in case of injuries, and some power bars, or chocolate bars as well as a spare radio, with batteries, and one or two flashlights, with batteries.

If you live in an area that is prone to hurricanes you should have these kits already, but if you don't, it is better to prepare now than wait and believe nothing is going to happen, and then be caught by this hurricane unprepared.

Good luck to those in the south of the U.S.


[edit on 18-8-2007 by Muaddib]

Dean has already hit the Caribbean levelling banana plantations and setting off landslides. On St Lucia Dean ripped the roof off the paediatric wing of Victoria hospital in the capital Castries. Dean's projected path will lead it over Jamaica on Sunday and close to Mexico's Yucatan peninsula. On Martinique, an elderly man died of a heart attack and six others have been injured. The storm destroyed all the islands banana plantations which employ 10,000 of the islands 400,000 population.

Thats a pretty hard blow economically wise. This things building into a monster.

euronews.net...

No matter where this puppy lands, people need to heed the words of the emergency services when they issue evac warnings. The one thing I was amazed by during Katrina was how they told people that it was coming, and even gave a mandatory evac for everyone in the path. Some people decided to defy them and stay.

Now, at this point, I'd tell them once that if they didn't leave with them, then they would be stuck here, and that no one would be coming after them. But did they do this with Katrina? NOOOO!! They rushed back in there when people were on their roofs with signs begging for rescue, when they could have used the extremities that their creator gave them and walk out of town to higher ground. But they chose to stay.

I just want everyone to know that I'm a very caring and compassionate person, but not at the expense of a blatant disregard for someone else's safety. Those that stayed did so of their own volition, knowing full well that they could die there. Some did. The rest complained because no one made it there to get them fast enough. I don't think there should have been a rescue program for them, since it was a mandatory evac, and they chose not to go. As far as I'm concerned, if you're not going to listen to reason, then you've already decided your own fate; who am I to interfere in something like that?

The reason I say all of this is because I think we need to remember this when the next hurricane hits, and Dean will likely be that storm. People need to listen to the officials when they say it's time to leave. Especially when they can SEE the storm on TV coming STRAIGHT for them!! If they decide not to leave again, then I think they should sign a waiver, waiving the state of any responsibility for their rescue in the event that they get stranded.

Just my thoughts though.

Oh, and an update:

Dean is packin 150 MPH winds, and is moving W at 17 MPH. He's slowing down and picking up wind speed. Might be a good time to get packing, if you're on the Gulf Coast...

TheBorg

HURRICANE Dean is expected to grow into a ferocious Category 5 storm as it passes Jamaica and nears Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the oil and gas rigs of the Gulf of Mexico after it smashed into several Caribbean islands, the US National Hurricane Centre said on Saturday.
www.news.com.au...

It will be intresting to see the fallout. Nodoubt the price of oil will rise, whilst the $USD drops.

Lets hope those in the Deans path are safe!

Arent most Hurricanes given a female name?

edit - adding text

[edit on 18-8-2007 by SmokeyJo]

[url=http://deanhurricane.ytmnd.com/]***>> Here I Am...

Does anyone know when the official updates are for this thing?

We are trying to put together some type of action plan but we need afew more updates so we can make some final plans.

Thanks!

Arent most Hurricanes given a female name?

No, just the memorable (most destructive ones) lol
Actually the names alternate, male/female/male etc..
You can find a list of them here at Weather.com

That is also where you can find updates for the storm, for the people that were wondering. Like all sites do, they get their information from the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Originally posted by SmokeyJo
Arent most Hurricanes given a female name?

For every year, there is a pre-approved list of names for tropical storms and hurricanes. These lists have been generated by the National Hurricane Center since 1953. At first, the lists consisted of only female names; however, since 1979, the lists alternate between male and female.

Source

I'd also like to say that I hope this thing leaves the minimal amount of destruction possible, and people do the right thing and move out of the way, my prayers are centered on this thing right now and until it goes.

This is my first post on here, so bear with me. Hurricanes have always been of huge interest to me, I have tracked them for years. Before I joined this site, I had read somewhere that this hurricane was to be one of the worst and hit the US on August 23rd, Then I found this thread last night which has so much information. I am so glad to know there are other people out there that are as interested as I am in this huge storms.

Also I wanted to make just a quick comment to theborg that posted about hurricane Katrina and the people that did not listen to warnings to evacuate. We must all remember that New Orleans is in most areas a very poor community with most not having reliable means of transportation. These poor people were stuck, so I praise the men and women that risked thier lives to go in and reach the elderly and poor and help them escape. I am in no way wanting to start a argument, I only wanted to point out that some were not able to get out.

Here is a good satellite view of the storm, I'm mainly just posting this to see if it will animate on here or if it will it be a still image.
The winds are still at 150 mph and the pressure has risen from 926 to 929, the eye seems to be closing a little bit, which could indicate an eye wall replacement cycle, as another poster pointed out earlier, these big storms can go through several of these during their lifetime.



nope, doesnt animate, oh well. Here is the image of the computer models again.
This image is updated every few hours.




[edit on 8/18/2007 by Kr0n0s]

KrOnOs, thankyou for staying on top of this for us. It was the first thing I thought about upon rising. I just watched TWC and it is now warning for the Jamaician islands, Haiti and acouple of the other islands . What I am watching for is the trajectory for America. Is it possible that it could wind down enough before hitting here next week to be down graded to a tropical storm?

reply to post by magycpapyri


Glad to see you joining us here at ATS. Welcome!! Welcome!!

You'll find better coverage here for the storm than just about any other place around. And for sure some of the best commentary. Still, for local conditions, you need to have a local source.

Let us all hope that this storm is not another Katrina in terms of loss of life and overall devastation.

Originally posted by antar
KrOnOs, thankyou for staying on top of this for us. It was the first thing I thought about upon rising. I just watched TWC and it is now warning for the Jamaician islands, Haiti and acouple of the other islands . What I am watching for is the trajectory for America. Is it possible that it could wind down enough before hitting here next week to be down graded to a tropical storm?

Probably not a tropical storm but possibly a Category 2 storm, here is what the meteorologist from Weather Underground
has to say about Deans possible future.

Texas and Louisiana
Things are looking much brighter for Louisiana, as the GFDL model has come in line with all of the other models in predicting a landfall in Southern Texas or Northern Mexico. It now appears likely that Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula will knock Dean down a category or two before it can approach the Texas coast. The upper level low that was forecast by the GFDL to potentially steer Dean northwards appears to be weakening and moving westwards, out of the way of Dean. You can watch this upper level low on water vapor satellite loops. It is the counter-clockwise spinning region that has moved west off the Florida coast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If this low continues to weaken and move westwards, it will not be able to swing Dean northwestwards towards northeast Texas and Louisiana. If Dean does manage to catch up to the upper level low, the counter-clockwise circulation around the upper low will bring some south-to-north winds over Dean that would steer it on a more northerly track into the Gulf of Mexico.t

Also, read this link from that site about what is happening to the storm right now.
Its eye is about to collapse, its down to just a few nautical miles across, when it does it will be replaced by a new eye, possibly 20-30 miles across.

Hurricane Dean put on an impressive round of rapid intensification last night, deepening 49 millibars in just 24 hours. Dean is now a major Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. Reports from Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Dean has likely peaked in intensity, and may be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The eye has shrunk from 20 miles in diameter yesterday down to 13 miles in diameter this morning. This inner eyewall will probably shrink even more and collapse sometime in the next day, to be replaced by a new outer eyewall 30-40 miles in diameter. Dean's winds may decrease to the lower end of the Category 4 scale, 135-140 mph, if that occurs. The inner eyewall and the new outer eyewall that is forming can be seen on a microwave satellite image from this morning (Figure 1). The 11:02am EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters said that the southern portion of the inner eyewall was missing, so the eyewall is probably collapsing now.

Tropical

Is anyone looking out for signs of hurricane manipulation as in Ophelia and one week before katrina?
as discussed in this thread (great pictures)
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Hi All,

Ive noticed that the GFDL model is now more in line with the rest of the computer models, as the line graph posted earlier shows. However, I found a 3D GFDL tracking model on weather underground that still shows Dean hitting the middle of TX.




According to weather underground, an upper level low is what is going to determine if Dean hits the mid point of TX.

The upper level low that was forecast by the GFDL to potentially steer Dean northwards appears to be weakening and moving westwards, out of the way of Dean. You can watch this upper level low on water vapor satellite loops. It is the counter-clockwise spinning region that has moved west off the Florida coast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If this low continues to weaken and move westwards, it will not be able to swing Dean northwestwards towards northeast Texas and Louisiana. If Dean does manage to catch up to the upper level low, the counter-clockwise circulation around the upper low will bring some south-to-north winds over Dean that would steer it on a more northerly track into the Gulf of Mexico.

Source


Here is a link to the water vapor loop that was referred to: NOAA link.

The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly tonight and tomorrow to get more data on the storm. Jamaica has me worried though, as it looks as if it will suffer a direct hit with Dean being a cat 4 storm.

reply to post by sylvrshadow


From all the tracking I have been looking at. I am thinking its going to hit in or around the middle of Texas also. I'm hoping it won't, we don't need this kind of destruction again.

We are inland 65 miles along the coastal bend of Texas. We keep a close watch on hurricanes and hope for the best. I have experienced a few in my days in Houston.

I think some in the radio and TV media do a disservice encouraging people to leave cities like Houston. I'm sure many saw the fiasco of Rita. How does anyone expect 100,000s to flee that city. The people from the true coastal cities should move inland. During Rita those folks ran into a huge stream of traffic out of Houston heading west. I happened to head up to a town along the highway on the friday before Rita. What a mess with traffic. People spent 12 to 18 hours to move 50 to 100 miles if that. Had the storm hit our area like originally forecast, instead of the Texas/La border, it would have been a disaster. People sitting in cars in a 200 square mile parking lot. There isn't enough lodging and roadway to handle the volume of people. How long will the average car run on a single tank of gas. The stations are drained of gas in short order.

I hope there isn't a repeat the future. I someone feels the need to leave, do it a week in advance.

roadgravel that was a great post, would you consider doing an ATSMix interview with Dave and Johnny? Or even your own PODCAST. I think it would be fascinating either way, I would love to hear what you and your family and friends experienced, how you dealt with it and what you learned from it. Thankyou in advance!