Hellmutt edit to add this new advisory (August 19) :

1100 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N...78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB

As of the 2pm advisory Dean had rapidly intensified to category 3 strength and there is nothing stopping this storm from reaching category 5 strength. The last I saw the GFDL model has made a major shift to the left (east) taking Dean towards Louisiana coast. The best I can find so far comes from wunderground.com and it indicates the storm makes it through the pass between the Yucatan and Cuba as a category 5 storm with winds at one point hitting 156kts which I believe is 180mph. Naturally this path could and likely will change but this is the kind of monster we are looking at. New Orleans is trying to recover from Katrina and I find it unlikely the city will ever recover if it were to take a direct strike from a storm like Dean.

I'll post more information later when the updates come out and the models update projected paths.

[edit on 18-8-2007 by asala]

[edit on 2007/8/19 by Hellmutt]

A direct hit by Dean would spell "doom" for south La. The fact is, much of the barrier is silted in from the Mississippi River, and then scoured by recent storms, that the old wetlands are in real danger.

And N O couldn't survive as a city if they get another major storm so soon. The levee system won't hold up, and everyone knows this.

I wonder if the Feds (FEMA) are ready to see this?

Martial Law?

Originally posted by Indy
Dean has finally formed that infamous donut around an eye.

Mmmmmmmmm.......donuts!

Looks like this is going to be a big one.
Here's hoping it doesn't cause to many problems.

I have only just heard about this one,

Scary stuff, thanks for the update,

8pm advisory has Dean listed as a Cat 4. It is expected to move into even warmer waters and continue to strengthen. In the last 12 mins of watching the Weather Channel the wind speed has already increased by 9 mph.

Dean will probably really tear apart the islands, the footage should be unbelievable and unfortunately I think we can expect a fair amount of lives to be lost. I also would not be shocked to see it take a turn in the Gulf and make landfall in US.

This storm will be as bad if not worse for the island than Gilbert was and Gilbert was terrible. The only thing islanders can hope for is that the eye passes on the north side of the island. But I don't think that is very likely.

Originally posted by Indy
I'm honestly amazed that I can't find a thread dedicated to this subject yet. But then again I can't find a real forum search feature so who knows.

We were waiting for you Indy!!! Glad to see your return.....


This storm definitely gained power since the last report I saw earlier today.

At that time it was "projected" to be CAT4 by SUNDAY, is it correct that it is CAT 4 NOW?

Thanks for the replies everyone. That's a big help and I never realized that.

JacKat: Yes at 8pm EST the Weather Channel reported the storm as a Cat 4 with 125 mph winds. It is interesting to note that by 8:11pm EST the Weather Channel was reporting the wind speeds at 134mph. It is 8:44 now and CNN just reported wind speeds at 134mph.

Indy and the rest of the forum who have contributed to this very important thread, if I had the ability to applaude you I would.


Believe me when I say that my energy and prayers will be with you until this is over.

This is what the August 18th warnings have been all about.

Blessings and be well.

This hurricane is going to Jamaica... then its going to Cuba.... then to the Yucatan, on to Texas... Louisiana....
and then its going to WASHINGTON. YEAAAAAWW!

-Hurricane Dean