Gas prices could go down to 2 dollars by thanksgiving...but something doesnt seem right

Wow, i had no idea that the thread i made would get this big lol.
you all have really good insights to this whole situation, and i want to thank you for your intelligent contributions to this thread.


Kind Regards,
Digitalgrl

Just trying to help Digitalgrl. I am just trying to show that the falling oil prices is the Mkt forces and not some political stunt.

For those following this thread, as I said yesterday, the Bears are roughing up the Bulls. Down below 60 $$$$$. If there is a close below 60$, then 55$ is the next stop.

I'll bet OPEC is thinking of closing some valves.

Roper

Today's price: $1.92 for reg.........at this rate it'll be free by Nov.

How soon after that will it go back up? And how high will it go if things go badly for the administration??

Any one read Woodward's new book yet? I heard there is a mention in it of oil price manipulation before the election in '04.

I could only imagine what the price of gasoline would drop to if technology to run cars cheaply on water/hydrogen was implemented and available. Of course this drop in oil prices may curtail the feeling of urgency in encouraging the use of alternative forms of energy. We may stay oil addicted for longer if prices stay lower.

After Tue. trade the Bulls had better take some Viagra!

There are several price support area in the oil future trade as I interpret the charts. Their at ( I can't put it on the penny, OK.) 55$ 46$ then 30$. 30$ looks like very solid support and I don't think it could get below that.

This Mkt could blow by the 55$ support today or tomorrow.

I am sure that OPEC will be talking about cutting production. Now I doubt that they will. Some of the OPEC countries might but not all.

Cold hard fact! China, India, Japan and Russia need oil along with Europe. It's not just the USA that OPEC is dealing with.

If the Democrats won the House and Senate, the Mkts would see this as a bad thing.

Roper

[edit on 4-10-2006 by Roper]

Well its already happened here in Tampa. Just along the Pinnelas/Hillsborough county border a Hess stationed dropped a gallon of 87 octane to 1.99 this morning.

TAMPA - Service stations are shelving their threes and dusting off their ones this morning, as gasoline prices defy forecasts that a gallon of motor fuel would never again fall below $2.

Overnight, the price of 87 octane unleaded gas crept down to $1.99 or lower in a couple of spots around the Tampa Bay area. At least three service stations along Tampa Road/Hillsborough Avenue are advertising a gallon of the cheap stuff for $1.99 or $1.98.

On the Pinellas-Hillsborough border, a Hess station is the lowest of three at the intersection with Race Track Road. Hess is selling 87 octane for $1.99 a gallon; Its competitors are advertising prices well above $2 a gallon.

Now thats fun. In fact that station is conviniently located less than half a mile from a mile from a large conservation/park on the bay where I like to go fishing.

With all due respect, it's pointless to make a thread everytime the oil price goes down or up. Lately, the market has been oversupplied and OPEC already announced to cut the production, which might increase the price again.

Besides, enjoy the prices as long as they are low, but don't be surprised when they rise rapidly soon again.

The US continues for applying sanctions on Iran. I bet Iran's answer to sanctions will put pressure on the oil market and prices will rise enormously.

Originally posted by Roper
Just trying to help Digitalgrl. I am just trying to show that the falling oil prices is the Mkt forces and not some political stunt.

For those following this thread, as I said yesterday, the Bears are roughing up the Bulls. Down below 60 $$$$$. If there is a close below 60$, then 55$ is the next stop.

I'll bet OPEC is thinking of closing some valves.

Roper

Just trying to help Digitalgrl. Just as Roper is secure that it is 'Market Forces' at work, i must counter that this fluxuation is based in a 'Political adventure'.

lets see who's holding & playing the Futures in oil, and just what is their exposures...
the big money (as in mega-oil-corps) also are heavily invested in the Hedge Funds.

bottom line, the Bush&Co regime gave the 'message' to the UBER-profitable oil corps....cut your profits (lets say by 60%) for the 4th quarter (when the midterm elections happen) then afterward allow the bidding to return to the $70. bbl range.

the USA only gets 10-15% of its oil from OPEC (those suppliers in W. hemisphere)
~however every drop of domestically produced oil is recovered @ under $20bbl~
BUT, every gallon of refined gasoline in the USA is based on the $70bbl OPEC price~ most likely driven up by mega-oil-corps excessive price bidding!!!

this engineered receeding of oil prices, is being arbitraged by mega-oil-corps with short-or-long futures and the diritives and hedge funds, make no mistake about it.

its just that there is not enough 'sunlight' on all this activity being conducted in the shady world of power-politics-wealth-market manipulation...

There is no way one man could manipulate the worlds oil. I am sorry ST Udio but if President Bush was that powerful there is no way you could say" Bush&Co regime". You would be to frighten to. BUT this is a conspiracy board so have at it.

Roper( The sane one)

I concur with that. That would force us to accept that nations such as China, Russia, Australia, Canada Japan,India, EU, and oh dear every member nation of the United Nations who purchases barrels of oil at the market price on the open market.

Forgive me for sounding ignorant, but if one man controlled the energy purchasing will of the entire globe, I would assume we would not have any differing opinions on how we should come about resolutions. And yet, we are consistently hearing of threats of war, and having to deal with a wide array of economic and political disputes between nations.

I suppose this man can call down meteors to rain down upon his enemies as well

He is just a single man whos name will have signifigance for a short 8 year term in our nations history to be. May not even be covered in a public eduation textbook 1000 years from now. He will be a nobody after his term is over.

Well OPEC did it. They want oil at 60$. Ain't nuttin' like being held hostage at grease gun!

Let the Mkt digest this news for a few days. I think it may still move down.

www.ft.com...

Roper

Yahoo news

So there it is.. oil dropped below $59 a barrel.. Why havent gas prices?

WASHINGTON - Oil prices dipped below $59 a barrel Tuesday amid doubts that OPEC members will make an immediate cut in production.

Why would they cut production? Ohh that's right to keep gas prices HIGH!!! so they can price gouge... Even though Bush said he wont allow gas price gouging..

After falling as low as $58.85 a barrel, light sweet crude for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded at $58.94, a decline of $1.02.

But I'm still paying $2.15 a gallon.. where I should be paying less than $2... FAR less

Some analysts are skeptical that OPEC members will be willing to produce less right now, given that prices are still twice as high as they were three years ago. Still, the uncertainty is enough to discourage aggressive selling near-term.

They should keep production up.. and stock pile for oh I dont know.. hurricane season??

This is a joke.. And Roper.. come on man.. you gotta be starting to believe

Sorry Ox, can't believe that this oil pricing is political. It's the Mkt reacting to supply and demand principles. Simple as that.

Oil will probably trade up tomorrow a little, this Mkt is trading sideways and is running into upside resistance. OPEC may overnight start beating their gums about more production slow down but we will see.

If any of you are looking for a conspiracy, then look to OPEC.

With these potential large economy in India, China, their going to be putting downward pressure on the Mkt.

Now as far as your gas prices, I'm paying 2.23 here. I went down state over the weekend and saw it from 1.96- 2.15. Bought it for 2.05 at Wal-Mart and 1.99 at a 66 station.

Roper

Hold on hold on.

It is not really possible to globally manipulate the world's oil markets.

But you don't put crude oil in your tank. You put gasoline.

And gasoline is refined domestically. And yes, it could be manipulated in the short term.

All the world's oil producers don't have a collective single interest in US politics in one direction.

But, do US-based refiners? You betcha. Which party would be really easy on them, and which one hard?

Facts:

1) Gasoline prices have dropped much more in proportion than crude oil prices.
2) Crude oil makes up about 50% of the price of gasoline.
3) Goldman Sachs changed its commodity index, reducing the proportion of unleaded gasoline by TWO THIRDS. This is a huge change! It went from 6% to 2%. No real explanation. And why so suddenly?
4) The current Secretary of Treasury, Paulson's former job: CEO of Goldman Sachs.
5) Gasoline "crack spreads"---the difference between the price that refiners sell it for versus the cost of their crude inputs---are SUDDENLY at unprecedented multi-year lows or down to zero.
6) Mostl US gasoline is refined domestically by a small cartel.

No tin-foil hat here. All documented, objective facts.

Think.

What does Goldman get out of this? Well, their energy traders might have a bit of a "heads up" on the futures market, hmm? Who took the other side of those bad Amaranth trades?

What do refiners get out of it? An investment in politicians, forgoing profits for two or three months, is cheaper than investing in refineries and technology.

And Who else?

What does Goldman get out of this? Well, their energy traders might have a bit of a "heads up" on the futures market, hmm? Who took the other side of those bad Amaranth trades?

What I think is this. The oil producers hedged their product up at the top. This includes OPEC along with US producers. So there were not very many bad trades.

This is why OPEC can drink a big, tall, cold glass of STFU, when trying to manipulate the MKT with talk of slowing down production. The Mkt in not buying it for now anyway.

Here is the weekly chart. futures.tradingcharts.com... This is where I am getting my support target.

Here is the daily chart. futures.tradingcharts.com... This puppy is right on the resistance line. If there is no fundamental news for higher prices then it will follow the down trend line. If I am reading the charts right then 56$ area is the target.

This MKT is over sold, which can mean nothing when there is too much supply.

What needs to happen( you all ain't going to like this) is oil to trade back up to 78
$. This will put in a double top, the producers will hedge more oil and the price will drop like a rock. 30$ oil would be cool, huh? Then we will hear how bad the oil producers have it and 30$ oil could/will cut into state revenues.

Roper

[edit on 15-10-2006 by Roper]

[edit on 15-10-2006 by Roper]

in 3 months gas prices will start to rise, mark my work. i said it here on ats, and i will say it again. why, cause iran and their friends are all going to gang up on the united states. these gov't surplus oil is not going to last. it will start as a bush folly and escallate from there. the gulf will be littered with some of our ships, we will have more problems with north korea again. also cuba, venezuella, afghanistan, parts of africa, iraq, and quatar. much later in the new year with china when they intervene with north korea. i see domminos, and they start to fall this new year in 2007. watch it unfold here, more to come.

Littlebird, how are Iran & friends going to gang up on the USA?

There isn't going to be any war with Iran,BTW.

Roper

I'm not going to comment on Iran and the US. We're just not in a good place internationally as a country right now. Now the oil companies need their supplies to go down, so they can trade up. Much like the argricutrual markets for animals, vegtables, etc. They'll probably lower it to a around $2 or about a $1.20 at the lowest, then we'll have a big increase around the beginnning of Spring Break. Which seems to be when they increase the price. Unless trading and politics go a different direction, that usually is their plan as I've observed it.

So... if it cost me $12.00 to fill my tank up in 2002, and it costs me about 22-25$ now, when can I pay 12$ for a full tank again?

Please dont say never ...

Personally, I budget my life around the cost to transport myself. I make sure that gas is never a problem, as in THE priority bill above all. Then everything else comes next. By focusing your own budget and finances aroudn this, you should not have to worry about fuel.

so roper, where do you think opec gets (buys), some of their oil. the u.s.a. uses much, much more oil than any other nation. we have to get oil from some of these small countries like iran. opec buys oil here. you think that we only get oil from just one source, no sir. we have to get oil from several sources. so do you think that these other sources could cut us off , you bet. and if enough of them do this we are in for a war, you can bet your bottom dollar on that one. so who owns or sells this oil to these large oil companies. where do they get it from, who controls the markets. so roper, tell me why are we so interested in oil then and iran. what nukes hardly. our satillite system will blow em out of the sky well before they even get to our country. we are addicted to oil and they know it. cutting off america of its oil (blood) will kill us financially leading america to a revolution or something like that. so this new small discovery of oil, wow , big deal not a drop in the bucket compared to what we consume. oil prices are going down, so. when our troops arrive in iran watch it skyrocket 3 months after. watch for the draft notices to be comming out this winter and bushes new bill to be passed. watch it happen it will. it will be all over the news in 3 months. if iran gets several of these nations to back them we are screwed, we will be forced into a war to take control of it so we as a nation , will not starve, litterally. no oil, no transportation, no food. this north korean thing will escalate so that china gets sucked into a war with north korea causeing more of our troops to be scattered around the globe. we are going to be running thin of men and our gov't knows it. thus this draft thing. you know knowone has ever talked about the issue of what this underground nuke test will do to the environment and the pollution of the water supply. i wonder how many north koreans will be drinking nuclear water. did they ever think of this. theyre people are going to be invading the borders over there when all this comes out. nukeclear water, radiation sicknesses will pop up. the countries around them will not stand for a flood of people to theyre country. watch it escallate, watch the domminos fall one by one. theyre is to much going on , u.s.a can not hold its ground on all fronts, we do not have the manpower, so yes nukes might get used, i hope not. the draft is comming. ships have been deployed to iran already. roper if you dig hard enough the answers are all there in the internet, even if you go globally. put it together it is all there. god speed to us all.