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Gas prices could go down to 2 dollars by thanksgiving...but something doesnt seem right

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posted on Aug, 30 2006 @ 11:30 PM
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ok in this article by USA TODAY experts are saying that the gas prices are going to start to go down, and will most likely be at around 2 dollars by thanksgiving. so yea, thats wonderful. but something doesnt sit right with me. maybe its because i dont really follow the dealings of the oil industry, but with all the tensions in the middle east, and the fact that the hurricane season isnt even over yet, seems wierd to me that it would be lowering.

heres a snippet:

The only place they have to go is down," says Fred Rozell, gasoline analyst at the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS). "We'll be closer to $2 than $3 come Thanksgiving."Travel organization AAA foresees prices 10 cents a gallon lower by the end of next week. It reported a nationwide average of $2.84 Tuesday, the lowest since April 20.

PRICE HAPPY: OPEC president says $70 a barrel oil price is satisfactory

It's good news for consumers and the economy. Continued lower prices "may act like a tax cut" and stimulate spending, says Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City in Cleveland. He calculates that higher energy prices the first six months cut growth of consumer spending 1 percentage point.

The U.S. average for a gallon of regular peaked this year at $3.036 Aug. 10, according to OPIS/AAA daily surveys. That's slightly under the high of $3.057 Sept. 5, a week after Hurricane Katrina battered petroleum production in the Gulf of Mexico and caused fears of fuel shortages


and the thing that also got me is that they said prices will jump again next spring. which i guess in part seems normal, but not if they are lowering so much in the winter, at least to me anyway.

and the reasons they give as to why, again, seem like bs answers to me.


•The end of summer. Driving slows, reducing demand for gasoline. And federal requirements for clean air, summer-blend gasoline end next month, making gasoline cheaper to refine and import.



•Sluggish demand. Gasoline use in the first eight months of the year is up 1% vs. a year ago, less than the 1.5% to 2% growth that's typical, says Michael Morris, analyst at the U.S. Energy Information Administration. "Wholesalers are trying to get rid of product. The growth in demand for gasoline has really tapered off," he says.



•Petroleum traders, worried that prices are too high to last, are selling their holdings. That pushes prices down. They also believe hurricanes won't disrupt Gulf of Mexico production, OPIS senior analyst Tom Kloza says.


ok the first two sound ok i guess. but the one about the traders seems retarded. how do they know that the hurricanes wont effect the golf and second of all...with all the trouble in the middle east with oil (which is what i thought a bunch of the problem was in the first place other than the fact that some of our oil producing facilities got damaged in the hurricanes last year) why couldnt they go higher? Irans president just said recently (which i read on here at ATS) that if we keep pushing him with the sanctions then we will see prices go to 100 bucks a barral.

so i guess, i just dont get why all the sudden there is a drop when things seem like they are heating up.

heres the link:
Oil prices to drop soon


Im not the type of person that sees a conspiracy in everything. just when i read this, something didnt sit well with me. maybe some of you can clarify this for me, or verify my misgivings.

Thanks,
Kind Regards,
Digitalgrl





[edit on 10/01/2004 by DigitalGrl]




posted on Aug, 30 2006 @ 11:36 PM
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Ahem.

Thanksgiving is in November.

What else is in November?

Oh thats right! Elections!

I don't think I'm jumping to conclusion when I say that the big oil companies favour Republican candidates over Democrats. Any drop in prices will give the Republicans a minor boost.

It's a short term "hit" for them, they'll just put them right back up at christmas when people have no choice but to drive places.



posted on Aug, 30 2006 @ 11:40 PM
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Gas prices drop at the end of summer (ie fall) and rise again at the beginning (ie spring). It's happened for every years as far back as I can remember while driving, so why is it out of place now?



posted on Aug, 30 2006 @ 11:43 PM
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Do you think there may be some grand price fixing going on? Keep the price of gasoline and oil low enough so that America doesn't quickly convert away from gasoline for as long as possible perhaps? Of course, one big hurricane heads towards Texas and all those oil refineries and gas prices will probably shoot back up. Perhaps OPEC doesn't want the global economy and their sale price of oil to cool off too much due to a global recession. Therefore OPEC and others agree to lower the price to keep their profits higher than they would be with a global recession.

Just so we don't get too used to cheaper oil, they'll jack the price up in time for next summer's driving season. Let the global economy get back on track. Then throw in some Middle East war talk over Iran to get the price of oil really up there. Unfortunately, oil companies have the monopoly power. I don't know of anything other than gasoline that I can put in my current car. I would like to help end that monopoly though.

Elections though sounds like a good answer. Make the people happy in time to let them keep current politicians in power.

[edit on 30-8-2006 by orionthehunter]



posted on Aug, 30 2006 @ 11:47 PM
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DigitalGrl I thougth the same thing I was hearing about this for a while (being a car guy and all) and all the improvement in other fuel source. Then this happens. Nerding your might be on to something but I think is more than that. I mean with high price of gas and nice look of new fuel like Biodiesal and this "War on terror" that everone thinks is not working. So they have to do something.



posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 12:01 AM
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Thanks for replying guys


CMDRKEENKID: since im only 20 (will be 21 in october
) i only have so many years to look back at as a reference and the first couple years of it, i never really paid attention. i admitted that im no expert on this so it seeming wierd to me could be simply because of that, that is why i asked for clarification.


NERDLING: it being an election year is a good point, had not thought of that, and your conclusions do make sense.


like i said this seemed odd to me only because of the reasons ive been hearing about why prices were high in the first place. and with the middle east heating up, and that being their excuse for awhile, it just didnt make sense.

thanks for clarifying. if you guys notice anything else please feel free to post it.


Digitalgrl



posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 12:07 AM
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How about the fact that expensive gasoline is killing the economy? It's got to worry a lot of people and the R' word.

Also, people are likely cutting back on driving if not necessary which if it continues could even hurt oil company profits.

Lastly, public backlash and hard feelings against the industry can't be making them confident in their lust for profits any longer.



posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 08:59 AM
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Originally posted by DigitalGrl
since im only 20 (will be 21 in october
) i only have so many years to look back at as a reference and the first couple years of it, i never really paid attention. i admitted that im no expert on this so it seeming wierd to me could be simply because of that, that is why i asked for clarification.


I'm only 20 (21 in just over two weeks) as well, but I've been driving since I was 14 (special license to get to school, though I used it for a lot more.) When I started driving gas wasin the 70-80 cent range, per gallon. I remember thinking it was ludicrous when gas hit a dollar per gallon. But yeah, in my almost seven years of driving, it's all been higher gas prices going into and through summer, then going down again going into and through winter.


it being an election year is a good point, had not thought of that, and your conclusions do make sense.


It does, but they're not the "big ones." I know midterm elections can be influencial, but fewer people vote, so I doubt the effect of gas prices will make too much of a difference.

Now, if gas prices suddenly dropped to what they were when I started driving, and ads started airing saying, "Gas dropped because of the Republican Party. Vote to keep them in power," we might have a different story. I doubt that'll happen, though.



posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 09:04 AM
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I would think this is very strange.

So far, the middle east conflict is not really over-Iran/Syria/hezbolla......

My point is, the root causes for the higher oil/gas prices have not really changed.
Sure, Officially, the shooting has stopped, but the area is no less dangerious and no less likly to go back to war.

It is true, the prices do change with demand-notice i did not indicate supply also.

It is also too convient, as presented by another poster, that that is Elections month in the US.

I wonder what will happen to prices after the election??

I also wonder if the price of crude will drop or just the price of gas??



posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 09:29 AM
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Originally posted by Nerdling


It's a short term "hit" for them, they'll just put them right back up at christmas when people have no choice but to drive places.
Exactly. Its all an election "ploy" :shk: That's why it doesnt have a ring of "truth"



posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 09:33 AM
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lol some people in the us should try living in the UK where recently fuel has cost us £1 per litre or aprox £4.50 per gallon



posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 09:41 AM
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For the record, the biggest "travel" day is the day following Thanksgiving. People are either heading home from being with family or driving to all the stores in the area for the big sales. In December the travel is more spread out, though about the same volume, but the difference is more people fly places than drive then. So I really doubt seeing a raise in prices again by Christmas time.

As for the high fuel prices in the UK, it's partially because there are fewer drivers there than in the US. So they need to have higher pricesin order to make the same amount of profit.



posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 09:50 AM
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Originally posted by Nerdling
Ahem.

Thanksgiving is in November.

What else is in November?

Oh thats right! Elections!

I don't think I'm jumping to conclusion when I say that the big oil companies favour Republican candidates over Democrats. Any drop in prices will give the Republicans a minor boost.

It's a short term "hit" for them, they'll just put them right back up at christmas when people have no choice but to drive places.


Thank you Nerdling. You beat me to it.

Support for the Republican part and conservatives in general is slipping, and Bush is very much reliant upon a Republoican controlled congress for both ease in passing his policies, as well as the only support he has left. With his ratings plummetting, and even his own party beginning to turn on him, Bush cannot afford to have a power shift in Congress. If the Democrats or anti-Bush Republicans took hold and dominated congress, not only would Bush lose alot of the easy ride hes had with passing bills through Congress, but his ownj political career would be at stake, with democrats more than likely pushing for impeachment.

Alot is riding on the November elections for Bush and Co, and thus, the oil tycoons as well.


Ox

posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 10:03 AM
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I agree with Nerdling.. Everything that is going on right now.. All the "incidents" on aircraft that are being magically foiled by massive teams of Air Marshals that JUST HAPPENED to be on the flights.. Oil prices dropping.. etc etc.. are just Political moves by the Republican controlled Government to try to give them a boost in November.. As also pointed about by Nerdling.. Oil companies favour the Republicans.. usually because they ARE partners or at one time HAVE BEEN partners with someone in office...

The Republicans are scared.. and they should be, they know if they lose controll of Congress then the "War of global radical Islamic extremist terrorists" will END... The "War in Iraq" will end. And Bush will more than likely be impeached..



posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 11:27 AM
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Yep its Karl Rove! He just made another deal with the Saudi's to help the Republican party. This is the same claim that was made in 2004 but then and now its just finding something in nothing.

Isn't it possible that summer is over and vacations are over so the demand will go down? Like it does every year at this time?




See the downword trend every year between October and November? I see no conspiracy.


www.twincitiesgasprices.com...


Ox

posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 11:34 AM
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So you're saying that people dont travel in the winter? no one goes on vacation? People in Wisconsin dont go to Florida in the winter time? Yeah.. time to wake up and smell the ethanol I think.....Gas dropped last year in November.. youre right.. from $3.50 a gallon to $3.25



posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 11:41 AM
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Originally posted by BlackJackal


See the downword trend every year between October and November? I see no conspiracy.





blackjack, I'm just curious, did you see a conspiracy when VP Cheney met with all the oil companies and refiners in secret and pretty much came up with the current administrations energy policy?



posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 12:08 PM
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Originally posted by solidshot
lol some people in the us should try living in the UK where recently fuel has cost us £1 per litre or aprox £4.50 per gallon


Perhaps ya'll should have an oil man, or his party running for PM.

I bet there's been some back room deals made, favors called in. Probably to our disadvantage in the long run......wait and see how much it will cost us after.



posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 12:12 PM
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This types of things make go humm and haaa.

But then again it make me wonder as who is the one controlling oil markets around.


I guess some may be hurting for that seat in congress



posted on Aug, 31 2006 @ 12:21 PM
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Originally posted by whaaa


blackjack, I'm just curious, did you see a conspiracy when VP Cheney met with all the oil companies and refiners in secret and pretty much came up with the current administrations energy policy?



Where is your evidence of this secret meeting taking place? I have never heard of this but I would like to see the evidence so that I can look at it myself

As for the other rebuttal, yes people do continue to drive in the winter and continue to go on vacation but not as much as during the summer. It is simply supply and demand backed up by hard numbers.



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