Hurricanes 2006

Good news: Ernesto down to tropical storm levels (50knts)

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Strong mid level shear is doing a number on him. This could mean the center will be relocating again and bringing the forecast track towards a more northern bias.
cimss.ssec.wisc.edu...


Strange storm and hard to forecast. Models out of wack from run to run, intensity estimates change by the hour, and I feel like throwing my papers up in the air.

Currently, models are trending towards a southern Florida landfall.


[edit on 27-8-2006 by Regenmacher]

WhY????? How and why is happening? This storm continues to bewilder me as I watch the imagery, the center of circulation keeps trying to reform in a better spot everytime it looks more ragged.

I really don't want to deal with a hurricane, however wishing a storm to go elsewhere is like sending bad thoughts to others, so I'll let Ernesto do what it wants and keep preparing...(sigh) though in a way I guess me and south florida on whole are much better prepared and capable of dealing with a tropical storm or minimal hurricane than having a cat 3 or 4 monster heading up to the Gulf states or the panhandle.

I just want to know enough info to decide whether to go put up my granny's shutters tomorrow or not..... it would seem that tomorrow would be our only chance of preps here in south florida if Ernesto skips the gulf and keeps coming NE.

Originally posted by worldwatcher
WhY????? How and why is happening? This storm continues to bewilder me as I watch the imagery, the center of circulation keeps trying to reform in a better spot everytime it looks more ragged.

It does look weird. Almost like it wants to split in two...I think that's happened before.

11pm advisory has watches and warnings up parts of the Bahamas. Hope it stays a tropical storm and not intensify before visiting me.

Tropical Storm ERNESTO Public Advisory

...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS.

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

I'm sorry first off, I don't know where all of you are from. These two, I do know are in the path.

Wishing the best fortune, and I am still hoping that this just makes an awkward turn and goes away. I don't know if that's going to happen though, and I want to wish you all the best.

WorldWatcher, I hope that you can get every preparation completed ahead of time, and that they give you at least enough foresight to help your grannie with her preparations.

I know now, what I didn't know before, and what it is like for everything to be taken away. You all are in my hearts, and I hope this is as speedy as possible and that everything goes well.

I'm already projecting whatever positive energy I have out to you all, and I hope things go easy with this storm.

thank you niteboy

I'm confident that myself and Gazrok are pretty as prepared as we can be. I don't have to do any shopping, my tank is full, I have accordian shutters. I'm prepared for the "entire" season. Waiting for the 5am advisory before deciding if it will be worth it to put up shutters for hopefully a tropical storm or even better just a depression.

good luck to all in the cone of ernesto.

In Tampa here. Im unemployed and tried convincing the family to buy supplies. "Nope " they said " Nothings going to happen it never does and we always have warnings".

Oh well. Will see what happens but I wouldnt expect it to be a TS or depression.

The 5AM 5 day now shows it hitting Florida at the bottom at a Cat 1 and basically traveling right up the middle of the state at a Cat 1 the whole way.

Usually one would expect it to lose strength just passing west to east over the state, what would sustain it right up the middle?

YIKES for all of us at this point?

NHC is now forecasting close to zero shear will be affecting Ernesto, so rapid re-development can occur.

THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. NHC

Hard to imagine it could become a Cat 3 looking at the current satellite images, and keep in mind that SHIPS intensity forecasts can have a high amount error. I have been reading that some mets indicate the SHIPS is wrong, since there is an upper low moving over Ernesto that will hinder development.

Skeetobite's hurricane track maps

Ernesto: Cuban animated radar

[edit on 28-8-2006 by Regenmacher]

Originally posted by worldwatcher
WhY????? How and why is happening? This storm continues to bewilder me as I watch the imagery, the center of circulation keeps trying to reform in a better spot everytime it looks more ragged.

Off the top of my head, I can think of a few reasons why this storm is hard to forecast.
1. Climate change is affecting model accuracy.
2. Too much monkeying around and revising historical climate data.
3. Too much reliance on computers and not enough intuitive analogy.
4. Landmass data and it's affect on tropical storms is inadequate.
5. Models have a hard time forecasting weak tropical storm systems.
6. Geomagnetic field has hit storm levels recently.

Recon vortex plots: Ernesto is about to make landfall in Cuba.

[edit on 28-8-2006 by Regenmacher]

I can't link it, but I was just watching the weather on the television. The storm is now at 45mph and it hasn't hit southern Cuba yet. If that track that is out now stays true (that is my hope), this storm will have it's eye running on Cuba for quite a while. This could effectively weaken the storm quite a bit. That's what I'm hoping for. If it's going to hit Florida, my hope is that it hits with as little strength as possible.

Originally posted by niteboy82
If that track that is out now stays true (that is my hope), this storm will have it's eye running on Cuba for quite a while. This could effectively weaken the storm quite a bit.

Yeah... my hopes too and these 6000+ foot mountains love to chew storms up.


Sierra Maestras of the Guantánamo Province Wiki

Broward County schools will be closed tomorrow. My kids will be happy.
Monroe County schools were closed today...btw.

just got a call from "outside" seems the lines at the gas stations are crazy and stores are filling up. I'll see if I can snap some pics when I go pick up the kids.

[edit on 8-28-2006 by worldwatcher]

This is a minimal tropical storm at best now and by looking at the NHC path projection it will hit south Florida as only a tropical storm. Amazing how much things have changed in a couple of days. A couple of days ago this storm was supposed to be in the central Gulf as a major hurricane.

I hope it does not develop into a hurricane, Worldwatcher. (I am sure you have done a great job preparing :up

Take care all of you on Ernesto´s path.

I´ll be watching the news close.

Originally posted by Indy
Amazing how much things have changed in a couple of days. A couple of days ago this storm was supposed to be in the central Gulf as a major hurricane.

Yes, almost...ironic. A year ago a storm that was suppossed to be nothing more than a hiccup did exactly the opposite.

I tell ya, at this point I am starting to wonder with all of the changes the world is undergoing do the old rules even work? Can we have any clue what the storm is going to do till it's practically on top of us?

I do hope this one stays on course for the fizzle, but the drastic change in behavior from one day to the next leaves one little room for security as long as it's out there at all.


P.S. I use the Navy site for my forecasts. They only have one track to offer and they seem to call it a bit more consistently. It's just a tad harder to read as you get knots instead of mph, but here it is if anyone wants to bookmark it. Clicking the pic in it will pop up the image to full screen.

www.nrlmry.navy.mil...


[edit on 8/28/2006 by Relentless]

World Watcher seems to be the one in the most concern of the path at this point. My prayers are with you girl!

As for me, it will hit our area tomorrow during the work day and my concern will be, since I now work beachside is not getting trapped thgere by them having to close the Intracoastal bridge due to wind concerns while I am on the wrong side of it. Only consolation is that it looks like now it will all be over by Thursday (prior to the Labor Day weekend, though I hope we maintain power for that.

Good luck everyone in it's path, which seems to be a really large portion of the State at this point, and lets not forget WW's reports of people taking it to lightly as in happened when Katrina passed over the State at a fairly low Cat last year. It still caused flooding and debris that people underestimated.

Well, now they are talking about ernesto going west instead. They said on the news this morning that NO is now preparing for it.

Here is something I wanted other opinions on....

www.ssd.noaa.gov...

At the top of that page. It looks pretty nasty, but what is it doing that far north. They havent even named it a ts or anything, but it looks oddly like a cane to me. What do you all think?

I reckon it has the spin, just no fuel.

Also on that link you will notice another trying to form right in the middle. Looks like it might just be a nasty hurricane season after all. But I would really love for that to be wrong.

[edit on 29-8-2006 by mrsdudara]

I'm sticking with the NHC track until they change it. Looks like this will be a bigger rain than wind event for here. Local forcasters are saying 12-15 inches

I'm prepared for the worst, but don't think Ernesto will be too bad. I tend to do alot of baking and cooking before a storm, so I'll be in the kitchen till later.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1007 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO A LANDFALLING HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM. WINDS
OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES...
FALLEN TREES...MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...AND DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS WINDS IN EXCESS OF 74 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IN THIS CASE.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
810 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD POTENTIALLY
BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK
WITH THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. TO THE WEST OF THE TRACK,
3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

National Weather Service Forecast Office Miami-South Florida

5am: 22.6 N 78.9W
11am: 23.3N 79.5W

Ernesto has slowed down to 13mph forward speed and is still heading Northwest, so a Florida West coast landfall is possible.

Model tracks: www.sfwmd.gov...

[edit on 29-8-2006 by Regenmacher]