Hurricanes 2006

The National Hurricane Center has issued a hurricane warning for a section of Florida's Gulf Coast from the Tampa area north to near Tallahassee.
Source: CNN

Can this become the first hurricane for the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane season?

Alberto continues getting stronger, I wonder if it will become a Cat. 1
At least, it seems it has a chance for being the first Hurricane of the season...

ALBERTO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH
Hurricane warnings are now in effect for the Florida West Coast. Alberto continues to grow stronger with each passing hour.

Source: Accuweather

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS ALBERTO LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
AND STRONGER...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
Source: NOAA latest public Advisory

I wonder why it is getting so strong. Shouldn´t it stop growing when getting into Florida?

There's already a thread about Alberto


...and tropical systems get stronger until the encounter sheer, cooler waters, or land. The water temps off of Florida are in the 80s so there's no reason for it not to strengthen...

Yes, I know there is a thread about Tropical Storm Alberto
I do not wanted to stop any thread about the Tropical Storm...

But just as it happens with other subjects. Say for instance, Volcanoes 2006. We have a thread talking about volcanoes and some extra threads also talk about a specific volcano, which might as well have been mentioned already on the main thread... After the hurricane warning I expected Alberto to become a Hurricane and my intention was to start a thread about Hurricanes 2006 (thinking on Alberto as the first hurricane of the season), but no matter... It seems that Alberto is still a Tropical Storm and not a Hurricane as forecasted, so we can wait to use this thread with a real Hurricane.

Ahh ok, I see.

Yeah, I made a thread like this too
www.abovetopsecret.com...

We have Hurricane Bud. Eastern Pacific, nothing to worry about in the Atlantic yet.

no threat to land at this time.
Hurricane BUD Forecast/Advisory

is the hurricane season starting kind late? and do you guys really think we will have as many as they had projected earlier in the year? and do you think we will get any as bad as katrina this season?



kind regards,
digitalgrl

Originally posted by DigitalGrl
is the hurricane season starting kind late? and do you guys really think we will have as many as they had projected earlier in the year? and do you think we will get any as bad as katrina this season?

kind regards,
digitalgrl

It seems a late start - but that's really only in comparison with recent years. On average (over 30 years) the 'B' storm forms around the 29th July ..... So plenty of time yet!

(by comparison last year saw 7 named storms before the end of July)

I daresay come late August or September we'll be seeing some big storms around though. Whether we get another Katrina, no-one can say.

It does appear though that if you look at the water temps in the Atlantic there is a lot less of the really warm waters that encourage hurricane formation.

Any way to predict how this might change over the next month or so? I may be wrong but it seemed by last time this year I was already alarmed at the amount of area showing really warm temps and it looks pretty benign this year (so far).

well I don't think it's late, just a bit slow. August thru October is really the peak and busy part of the Atlantic hurricane season. That's when you get healthy waves coming off of Africa, right now development is usually in the Gulf and the Caribbean. I have to add, I am grateful for the reprieve and won't make any judgement about this year season until it is over.

btw...the Eastern Pacific has Tropical Storm Carlotta now.

Tropical Storm CARLOTTA Public Advisory

Originally posted by worldwatcher
well I don't think it's late, just a bit slow. August thru October is really the peak and busy part of the Atlantic hurricane season. That's when you get healthy waves coming off of Africa, right now development is usually in the Gulf and the Caribbean. I have to add, I am grateful for the reprieve and won't make any judgement about this year season until it is over.

btw...the Eastern Pacific has Tropical Storm Carlotta now.

Tropical Storm CARLOTTA Public Advisory

Yes, I agree Wordlwatcher

We will look forward to the water temperatures in August and the peak months for hurricanes. I do not think it is late...

Bud and Carlotta will possibly weaken in a few days... That´s a relief.

Back to back (to back? - nah, that spin in the gulf is an upper level low. If it sits there it could start to develop though)


(hotlinked so catch it while you can)

im one hour from the gulf..

and im sure its gonna be pretty crazy over here in the coming month...

its been raining for a couple days now... but we need the rain, its been to dry this summer..


i hope we're not told to evacuate again and its another false alarm.

hundreds of people died trying to leave houston last year... and all the highways were soo packed that they were literally not even moving.... and NO gas stations had gas.... none. it was kinda creepy....

i stayed hime while people died to leave the city....

i feel bad for those people that struggled to leave... cuz they could've just stayed home, becuase they're was no storm.

Cape Verde season is starting....we have TD#3

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

000
WTNT33 KNHC 010253
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST MON JUL 31 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE AND THE NETHERLANDS
ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN/ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES...260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

This one looks pretty healthy if it survives tonight and tomorrow, we'll be seeing Tropical Storm Chris.

It's now Tropical Storm CHRIS
Southern Florida is in the forecast track zone.

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS HAVE ISSUED
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 5 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Get the lastest of the above 2 images here:
www.nrlmry.navy.mil...

Forecast model tracks here:
www.skeetobiteweather.com...

of course when I have plans and things to get done, a storm decides to cast it's eyes on me. But I'm ready and will take a Tropical Storm over a Hurricane anyday.

Come on wind shear and African dust!!!!

[edit on 8-1-2006 by worldwatcher]

as of the 5pm advisory, Tropical Storm Chris has intensified some, now with wind around 60mph. I think we'll have hurricane Chris by 5 or 11am if that diurnal strenghtening thing happens tonight.

Tropical Storm CHRIS Public Advisory

Well, I'm sure that anyone can believe that I am watching this one closely. Cat 3 or higher, you can count me out of the city. Bleh, I knew I should have gone to that voodou ritual a month ago to ward off storms...

As last time, worldwatcher, thanks for keeping the info up to date, and hopefully this thing will fly into the Atlantic and neither of our areas will see a drop of rain!

no probs, fyi I rather deal with cane here in South Florida than have it go to you guys. I know we're still dealing with Wilma recovery, but I don't think it can be compared to what Katrina did in your neck of the woods.

right now, I'm hear Chris will basically thread the needle and go in the Florida straights between Cuba and South Florida, if that happens then Texas would need to be on the lookout. And if that happens, I fear Chris will have the potential to be even stronger since there is an eddy of hot gulf stream water sitting right there in the middle of the gulf.

Well whaddya know - overnight Chris seems to have died ...... Looks well on the way now to being downgraded to a TD.

Sighs of relief all around I guess?

The hurricane season forecast has been updated. Forecast is now for only 3 major hurricanes instead of the earlier estimated 5.

source

A slow start to the 2006 hurricane season has brought only 3 named storms to the Atlantic basin. By this time last year, 2 major hurricanes had already developed.
"We're not reducing the number of hurricanes because we had only two named storms through late July," Dr. Bill Gray said. "It's a general erosion of a number of factors. The tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are not quite as warm, tropical Atlantic surface pressure is not quite as low, the eastern equatorial Pacific has warmed some and trade winds in the tropical Atlantic are slightly stronger."