Hurricanes 2006

thanks for the updates. I wish Ernesto would just make up his mind and bring it on. I hate the waiting part!!!!

btw for anyone curious, I'm in NorthWestern Broward County.
local sources:

www.local10.com...

www.nbc6.net...

www.miami.com...

Here's a county map for ease of deciphering the weather reports and to see where your favorite Floridians reside.

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1101 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...NEW INFORMATION...
THE FORECAST TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TAKES THE STORM ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS ALWAYS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT TRACK...YOU SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER. THE
STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL STORMS IS OFTEN VERY DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF
WELL DEVELOPED HURRICANES AND THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE OFTEN LARGE
DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER LOCATION.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA...CLAY...DUVAL...FLAGLER...
MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM AND ST JOHNS.

National Weather Service Forecast Office - Jacksonville, FL

I'll be posting to the Tropical Storm Ernesto thread from now on
www.abovetopsecret.com...

keep an eye on the Atlantic for possible Florence development......

Originally posted by worldwatcher
keep an eye on the Atlantic for possible Florence development......

Speaking of which....

Lot of covection in the ITCZ


Certainly the possibility that something could start to develop in a couple days.

surprised no one has mentioned Hurricane.. now SuperTyphoon Ioke which is one of the strongest Pacific storms in a decade, about to destroy Wake Island, which has been evacuated of its 200 citizens and will probably continue to impress and maybe even break a few records.

Typhoon Ioke Bears Down on Wake Island

Big Bad John Lashes Mexico

Thousands evacuated along the west coast of Mexico/Baja as John is forecasted to strengthen to a category 4 hurricane today.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT (127 MPH) WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT (155 MPH).

MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAINTAINS JOHN AS A CATEGORY THREE TO
BORDERLINE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
DIFFICULTY IN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WITH LAND. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WATERS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.

NHC: Hurricane John Info



Twin canes storming the eastern Pacific.



Hurricane John Wind Speed Forecast:
00 HRS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 MPH, GUSTS 155 MPH
12 HRS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 MPH, GUSTS 160 MPH
24 HRS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 MPH, GUSTS 160 MPH
36 HRS MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 MPH, GUSTS 155 MPH

NRL: Hurricane John and Kristy Tropical Info



[edit on 31-8-2006 by Regenmacher]

Possible next storm....maybe Florence is in the process of forming..

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031507
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 3 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. IF THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INITIATED THIS
AFTERNOON.

the tropical wave is now TD#6 and some models are forecasting that this will become a Hurricane.

Tropical Depression SIX Public Advisory
000
WTNT31 KNHC 032030
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1525
MILES...2455 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

There's a tropical wave just behind the TD. It's disorganized now, but the thunderstorms are holding together pretty good. I'm curious to know how they'll interact with each other....
In a couple days, we could have two storms following each other if they stay far enough away from each other

NHC link


Florence has now become a hurricane.

I think that the whole hurricane season may just be later than usual, due to global climate change. There are a couple of depressions behind Florence, that could become hurricanes.

We have Tropical Depression #7

Tropical Depression SEVEN Public Advisory
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006

...SMALL AND SLOWLY-MOVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST OR ABOUT 525
MILES...845 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

This storm is expected to follow a similar path as Hurricane Florence, recurve to the general direction of Bermuda.

almost forgot TD#7 is now Tropical Storm Gordon as of 5pm. It is expected to follow a similiar path as Florence and not affect the US mainland.

Tropical Storm GORDON Public Advisory

TROPICAL STORM GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006
500 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

...SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...GORDON...FORMS...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A
TROPICAL STORM.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES...690 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

GORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

Tropics active.
Now three systems.


TD 8 forms

...EIGHTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SHIP REPORTS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA YESTERDAY.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.0 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...295 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.5 N...23.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

On satellite it's starting to look pretty impressive, so Helene will be here in less than 24 hours.

TD #8 has become Tropical Storm Helene!!!

This is another one forecaster feel will recurve into the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Helene Advisory
TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006
1100 PM AST WED SEP 13 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM HELENE...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.7 WEST OR ABOUT 565
MILES...910 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22
MPH...35 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

oh and I almost forgot, Tropical Storm Gordon is now Hurricane Gordon
Hurricane GORDON Public Advisory

[edit on 9-13-2006 by worldwatcher]

Tropical Depression #9 has formed! NHC is predicting it will recurve out to sea without affecting the US mainland

NHC
WTNT34 KNHC 280833
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
500 AM AST THU SEP 28 2006

...DEPRESSION JUST SHORT OF BEING A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST OR ABOUT 685
MILES...1100 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...
19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

posted by worldwatcher

Tropical Depression #9 has formed . .

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 ADVISORY NUMBER 3, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER - 5:00 AM EDT, SEP 28 2006 A DEPRESSION IS JUST SHORT OF BEING A TROPICAL STORM . . MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS . . STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. [Edited by Don W]

The official Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 to November3o. I live in Jacksonville, FL. I’m really happy we have had no damaging storms this year. 10s of thousands of people are still recovering from those horrific storms of ‘05 and some in South Florida are still recovering from ‘04. While it ought to be a powerful warning for the future, it is of no particular value to belabor the incompetence brought on by the politicalization of FEMA or the other failures of officials largely attributable to a break-down in communications at every level. What more is there to say but that Katrina and Rita were untimely and exposed our several Achilles heels?

I might ask how just well prepared do you think California is for the “Big Eight Oh” that is so dreaded by seismologists? If it happens in LA or SF at high noon on a weekday, can you imagine the traffic jam that would ensue? In ‘99 Jacksonville’s mayor issued an evacuation order. In 20 minutes every road out of the city was blocked. People abandoned their “worthless” cars by the 1000s. It was two days before all the roads were re-opened. Sure, the interstate highways are now arranged to ban entry by local traffic and to make the roads one-way out only, so both sides can be used, but that overlooks the cars jamming the on-ramps in the city itself. Evacuation of a large part of the populace by private cars in a short time period is just not possible.

Sure, the R&Fs can use the potential emergency as their signal to take a vacation and exit the community. And that is helpful. Although it seems un-American to me to see the rich escape the calamity that the poor will have to suffer alone. Maybe every fleeing SUV should have to carry 2 homeless persons?


[edit on 9/28/2006 by donwhite]

TD #9 is now Tropical Storm Isaac.... no threat to land at this time.

Tropical Storm ISAAC Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 281438
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006

...NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
54.7 WEST OR ABOUT 665 MILES...1070 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

source

This is a category 4 storm, hopefully the people can get out in time. The name Xangsane translates to "elephant". The storm seems to be living up to its name.

Hanoi (dpa)- Vietnam began evacuating some 180,000 people in central provinces ahead of powerful typhoon Xangsane, officials said Saturday. "Central provinces are rushing to evacuate people from coastal and flood-prone areas," said Nguyen Tien Toan, deputy director of the national Flood & Storm Control Department.

Xangsane is expected to hit Vietnam on Sunday morning and appeared to have strengthened to pack winds of 149 kilometres per hour since leaving a trail of destruction in the Philippines, where it killed at least 60 people.

today.reuters.co.uk...

MANILA, Sept 30 (Reuters) - President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo sent 2,000 soldiers on Saturday to help emergency workers clean up wide areas south of the Philippine capital after typhoon Xangsane left 61 people dead, 81 injured and 69 still missing.

The National Disaster Coordinating Council said about 15,000 houses had been either destroyed or damaged and nearly 300 million pesos ($5.9 million) worth of crops and fisheries lost.

Around 20 percent of the sprawling capital of 12 million and nearby towns in four provinces remained without electricity, water and communication services, hampering relief efforts in remote villages still under floodwaters.

Typhoon Xangsane was downgraded to a tropical storm Sunday

DANANG, Vietnam - Typhoon Xangsane was downgraded to a tropical storm Sunday as it moved inland from the central Vietnam coast, where it killed two people, injured at least 80 others and damaged hundreds of homes, officials and state-controlled media reported.

Vietnam Television reported that two were killed people in Danang.

In Thua Thien Hue province, north of Danang, five people were injured by falling debris, provincial governor Nguyen Xuan Ly said, and more than 950 houses were destroyed or damaged.

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Typhoon Xangsane lashed Danang this morning, uprooting trees and cutting power in Vietnam's fourth- largest city.

The storm was five miles (8 kilometers) south of the center of Danang at 9 a.m. local time, Vietnam's Central Meteorological Office said on its Web site. Winds at the center ranged from 89 kilometers to 117 kilometers per hour, it said.

``The rain and wind are very strong,'' Van Phu Chinh, head of the flood and storm control committee for the central provinces, said in a telephone interview. ``Many places in Danang have no power.''

My wife and son are living in Hue. about 60km north of where the center of the strom made landfall. I just got off the phone with her one hour ago. For now they are ok, but my wife said that water from the flood already reached there house.

Its funny, when i watch CNN they are only talking about Katerina. While in Vietnam people are getting killed by a typhoon. People are only interested in something like this when its close to home or when it affects them personaly. Although i think that huricanes in the USA get far more media attention in Europe then tyhoons in Azia.

Piet

Updated Atlantic hurricane forecast.

They have updated the Atlantic forecast again.

FORT COLLINS, Colorado (AP) -- Hurricane expert William Gray downgraded his forecast for the 2006 Atlantic storm season again Tuesday, predicting one more hurricane, two more named storms but no intense hurricanes.

The new report calls for a below-average hurricane season, with a total of six hurricanes and 11 named storms.

Gray and fellow Colorado State University researcher Philip Klotzbach cited El Nino conditions for the reduced number of storms.

source