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Originally posted by worldwatcher
well I don't know about TD5 being a hurricane in 24 hours, but as of now, I think it should already be named Ernesto.
Tropical Storm Ernesto
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM AST FRI AUG 25 2006
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE
HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF
HAITI. ALSO AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA.
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/12...ALTHOUGH WITH ONLY
INFRARED IMAGERY THIS REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ERNESTO WILL MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE
TOWARD AND THEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. AFTER REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE AS STEERING CURRENTS
SLACKEN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WITH SOLUTIONS AS FAR WEST
AS THE GFDN THAT TAKES ERNESTO TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF...AND AS FAR
EAST AS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS SHOWN BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE
NOGAPS. IN THE MIDDLE BUT SLOWER IS THE GFDL AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THAT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT THESE LONG RANGES AND IS JUST NUDGED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
Hurricane Ernesto heads to Florida
Ernesto is expected to continue to strengthen further today before making a landfall in western or central Cuba late Monday night into Tuesday morning. By late Tuesday, Ernesto is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and possibly intensify further to a Category 3 hurricane - a major hurricane - before heading into Florida by Friday.
Of major concern is what effects Ernesto will bring to the United States by the middle of the week. Ernesto will encounter warm waters which will fuel its' strengthing. If Ernesto encounters the loop current (a ribbon of very warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico) for a long enough time, it could easily explode and intensify quickly. All indications are that a trough in the upper levels of the atmosphere digging across the Plains states will help to curve Ernesto back to the east some before it makes a final landfall likely in Florida.
Residents in Florida and elsewhere along the Gulf Coast especially in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana should keep checking back with AccuWeather.com for the latest updates on Ernesto. Even if Ernesto passes well away from where you live fringe effects of the storm can still be felt. Now is the time to review your hurricane protection plan and take neccessary action. By Tuesday at the least the outer bands of Ernesto could spread tropical storm force winds into South Florida, especially the Keys and will kick up the surf in the Gulf of Mexico.
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Once Ernesto encounters Cuba, it should go down at least one Category in strength. The eastern end of Cuba is very rugged and will interfere with the storm's circulation. Exactly how long Ernesto spends over Cuba will be critical in determining what kind of blow the Florida Keys will receive. Ernesto will most likely emerge from Cuba into the Florida Straights as a tropical storm.
The track forecast
The models have come into better alignment now. They unanimously predict a stronger trough of low pressure than originally forecast will act to pull Ernesto northwards across Florida, and then northeastwards out to sea. The exact highest risk Florida landfall is difficult to pin down so far in advance, and everywhere from Miami to Pensacola is at risk. It appears now that New Orleans can breathe easy, as Ernesto should miss that city by a wide margin. Residents of North Carolina should be alert, as Ernesto may brush the Outer Banks after traversing Florida.