Originally posted by goose
how long before we start seeing it?
You haven't given enough information.
Also there was talk several years ago about one hitting and then they came back and said it would miss us
Who is they?
Killer Asteroids and You
What are the chances that you will die because an asteroid hits the Earth? The idea is ludicrous, right? The odds must be infinitesimal when compared to, say, the chances of death in an airplane crash or a tornado. We've heard of people who died in tornados or plane crashes, but who was ever killed by an asteroid? Little ones, meteorites, make streaks in the night sky. Bigger ones may occasionally make a hole in a corn field somewhere. But asteroids never kill anyone, do they?
As it turns out, odds are about 2.4 times greater that you will be killed by a asteroid or comet than by an air crash or tornado, both taken together. Asteroid are surprisingly dangerous. If big one hit the Earth at the wrong place, it could kill many people. And a sufficiently big one could kill everyone.
Last June at San Juan Capistrano, California, about 200 scientists met to discuss the dangers and technological fixes for the problem of killer asteroids. Two scientists, Clark R. Chapman and David Morrison, reported application of the techniques of risk assessment to the risk of death from comets and asteroids. Their conclusions are both surprising and frightening. They estimate that over a 50 year period the chances for a given individual of death from asteroid or comet impacts are about 1 in 6,000. This compares to 1 in 20,000 odds for death in an airplane crash, 1 in 50,000 for death in a tornado, 1 in 5,000 for death by electrocution, and 1 in 2,000 for death in a firearms accident.
