Severe Geomagnetic Storm Research Project:, page 3
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ATS Members have flagged this thread 14 times


reply posted on 8-9-2005 @ 11:05 AM by worldwatcher
A little more on the solar flare Regenmacher reported on:

Large Solar Flare Could Hurt Communications

reported Wednesday.

It could cause electrical and communications disruptions. NASA said on its Web site that the blast was not directed toward Earth, however.

Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said significant solar eruptions are possible in the coming days.

They said there could be disruptions in spacecraft operations, electric power systems, high-frequency communications and low-frequency navigation systems.

NOAA forecasters say the flare, the fourth largest in the last 15 years, has affected some high-frequency communications on the sunlit side of Earth.


and

Solar Flare Could Interfere With Communications

Los Angeles, CA -- Scientists are currently tracking a very large flare that occurred on the Sun around 1:40 pm EDT yesterday. The current estimate of the size of the explosion makes it the the fifth largest ever observed.

While the blast was not aimed at Earth, the event created a complete blackout of high frequency communications in North and South America. According to the NOAA Space Environment Center, communications used by emergency services along the Gulf Coast may have experienced problems due to this flare. Low frequency navigation systems may also have experienced a period of significant degradation. Further, they report that agencies impacted by space weather storms may experience disruptions over the next two weeks. These include spacecraft operators, electric power systems, high frequency communications, and low-frequency navigations systems.


[edit on 9-8-2005 by worldwatcher]


reply posted on 8-9-2005 @ 02:03 PM by dbates
I just thought I drop in and say that no one is mentioning the brightest cosmic flare ever recorded. What will really get your head spinning is the date that this occurred on.

Originally posted by dbates
India Daily was on to something in this case. Look at this page from NASA.gov that describes what scientist believe to have been a giant flare. This story from NASA seems to give some credability to indiadaily.com When I saw that date that this occurred on I was blown away. What are the odds of this happening at the same time that the Boxing Day earthquake took place? NASA didn't link this to the earthquake in their article, but I can't help but think that there might be something to this story. If you don't read the whole article, you have to at least see the animation of the event. Very cool.

external image


nasa.gov - Cosmic Explosion Among the Brightest in Recorded History

Scientists have detected a flash of light from across the Galaxy so powerful that it bounced off the Moon and lit up the Earth's upper atmosphere. The flash was brighter than anything ever detected from beyond our Solar System and lasted over a tenth of a second. NASA and European satellites and many radio telescopes detected the flash and its aftermath on December 27, 2004.

Such a close and powerful eruption raises the question of whether an even larger influx of gamma rays, disturbing the atmosphere, was responsible for one of the mass extinctions known to have occurred on Earth hundreds of millions of years ago. "The next biggest flare ever seen from any soft gamma repeater was peanuts compared to this incredible December 27 event," said Gaensler. "Had this happened within 10 light years of us, it would have severely damaged our atmosphere."




reply posted on 8-9-2005 @ 08:17 PM by worldwatcher
Not sure if these are connected to the recent solar storm, but I think it should be noted, while these places may experience common blackouts, it could also be said that perhaps the solar effects are stronger on older and outdated systems. We also don't know how reliable these countries are at reporting the exact causes for failures, the timing is however too coincidental not to record here:

These were in the past 24 hours.

Another power failure hits Johannesburg, South Africa

Those who could watch South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) news at 7pm could see the broadcaster's atrium, behind the newsreader, was in darkness due to the power cut. The SABC is located in Auckland Park.

Johannesburg City Power spokesperson Sol Masolo was not immediately available for comment.

A call to the City Power help line was met with a recorded message saying large parts of the city and surrounding areas were blacked out due to the failure of two substations.

The voice said technicians were working on the problem and power would be restored "soon".

City Power told the SABC that two sub-stations experiencing electrical faults were the cause of the power failure.

The outage followed another last week that blacked out Rosebank, Houghton and surrounding areas.


Telecoms Blackout

TELECOMMUNICATIONS links between Namibia and South Africa were disrupted by a cable fault in South Africa's North West Province yesterday morning.
Telephone and Internet services were down from 08h00 until lunchtime, disrupting business in many sectors of the Namibian economy.
South Africa's Telkom utility said the cable break occurred in the North West Province between Wolmaransstad and Kingswood


and

UK:Shops and homes hit by power cut chaos
THOUSANDS of pounds worth of business was lost in Crouch End on Sunday after 1,400 shops and homes were plunged into a power blackout.

Electricity shut down in the area at 9.33am and was not restored completely until after 5pm.

Energy bosses have blamed the blackout on a fault in a major underground cable.

John Krahn, manager of the Haelan Centre, described the loss of trade as a "killer".




reply posted on 8-9-2005 @ 10:31 PM by Regenmacher

Solar flares:

2005/09/08 11:17:00 C2.9
2005/09/08 12:30:00 C3.1
2005/09/08 12:58:00 C2.0
2005/09/08 14:36:00 C4.0
2005/09/08 14:52:00 C1.9
2005/09/08 16:09:00 C4.2
2005/09/08 17:03:00 M2.1
2005/09/08 20:29:00 M2.1
2005/09/08 21:06:00 X5.4
2005/09/09 02:19:00 M1.0
2005/09/09 03:00:00 X1.2
2005/09/09 05:48:00 M6.2
2005/09/09 08:22:00 C3.7

S2 Solar Radiation Storm in effect
Biological: passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.
Satellite operations: infrequent single-event upsets possible.
Other systems: small effects on HF propagation through the polar regions and navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected.

R3 Radio Blackout in effect
HF Radio: Wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth.
Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an hour.

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Sep 8 at 22:00 UTC

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at high levels. Region 808 is a large and complex sunspot group capable of producing M and X-class flares.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. The CME associated with yesterday's X17 flare was very large and very fast. Although the magnetic cloud associated with this CME is not expected to impact Earth, a shock passage is expected, which will likely produce active to minor storm periods on 09 Sep. Isolated active periods are expected on 10 and 11 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected to continue through 10 Sep. A further enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons will likely follow the anticipated shock passage on 09 Sep. Today's X5 flare may enhance the existing proton event. The greater than 100 MeV proton event will persist through 09 Sep.

Space Weather Warnings Currently in Effect (chart)
www.sec.noaa.gov...
s/warnings_timeline.html

[edit on 9-9-2005 by Regenmacher]


reply posted on 9-9-2005 @ 01:06 AM by Mayet
My husbands a radio tech and he commented on all the interference on our tv and radios this morning which would have been around midnight greenwich time 9th sept. I am still to catch up on utc time. I will do a quick study later.

I have been searching for antarctic weather news and info along with taking daily snapshots of global weather to be able to compare and analyse when more info comes in.

One thing I did find of interest which is rather bad timing is this

earth.esa.int...
24 August 2005
MIPAS interruption 30 August-19 September 2005:The MIPAS operation will be interrupted starting on 30 August, 14:14 UTC, for a 20-day period in order to allow the system to recover from a series of Interferometer Drive Unit anomalies. It is planned that the system will resume operational on 19 September, 02:00 UTC, in time for special requests from the science community. All measurements planned for the interruption period will be re-scheduled.


envisat.esa.int...
MIPAS
(Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding)

The Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) is a Fourier transform spectrometer for the measurement of high-resolution gaseous emission spectra at the Earth's limb. It operates in the near to mid infrared where many of the atmospheric trace-gases playing a major role in atmospheric chemistry have important emission features.

The objectives of MIPAS are:

* Simultaneous and global measurements of geophysical parameters in the middle atmosphere;
* Stratospheric chemistry: O3, H2O, CH4, N2O, and HNO3; and Climatology:
* Temperature, CH4, N2O, O3 ;
* Study of chemical composition, dynamics, and radiation budget of the middle atmosphere;
* Monitoring of stratospheric O3 and CFC's.




In the above image, which I have saved and marked revelant areas you can see the huge formations coming out of the antarctic right now and going up between south america and Australia. it is bigger than the formations that came that formed nabi and talim.

I am also grabbing some other images that show what is coming out of antarctic between aus and africa.


[edit on 9-9-2005 by Mayet]


reply posted on 9-9-2005 @ 03:47 AM by Regenmacher


Do Stars Talk to Old Sol? Gamma Ray Bursts Incoming

GRB 050908 2005/09/08 05:42:31
GRB 050907 2005/09/07 09:36:16
GRB 050906 2005/09/06 10:32:05
GRB 050904 2005/09/04 01:51:44

grb.sonoma.edu...
www.aavso.org...
________________________

Proton Storm Incoming

Proton storms get their name from the "rain" of positively charged particles when a coronal mass ejection impacts the Earth. Some of these particles spiral down Earth´s magnetic field lines, penetrating the upper layers of our atmosphere where they produce additional ionization and may produce a significant increase in the radiation environment. Solar proton events can also produce elevated radiation aboard aircraft flying at high altitudes

During proton events, many more energetic particles reach Earth's middle atmosphere. There they cause molecular ionization, creating chemicals that destroy atmospheric ozone and allow increased amounts of harmful solar ultraviolet radiation to reach Earth´s surface. A solar proton event in 1982 resulted in a temporary 70% decrease in ozone densities.

The current ongoing proton event may exceed the one we had in the beginning of this year, if another geoeffective solar flare compounds the current levels.

Biggest proton storm even in 15 years:
The Jan. 20th, 2005 proton storm was by some measures the biggest since 1989. It was particularly rich in high-speed protons packing more than 100 million electron volts (100 MeV) of energy. Such protons can burrow through 11 centimeters of water. A thin-skinned spacesuit would have offered little resistance.

Chart for Proton Storm - 01/20/05
www.sec.noaa.gov...

Chart of the CURRENT proton storm and is still increasing;
sec.noaa.gov...
www.sec.noaa.gov...


[edit on 9-9-2005 by Regenmacher]


reply posted on 9-9-2005 @ 12:13 PM by Regenmacher
Geomagnetic storm has commenced, could reach G5 (extreme) levels.

Interplanetary Solar Wind Shockwave hits - 9 Sep 2005 1310 UT
Origin: 07 Sep 1740 X17.0 solar flare



The very latest SOHO images
sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov...

GOES Magnetometer
sec.noaa.gov...


Solar flares:

2005/09/09 09:18:00 C3.1
2005/09/09 09:31:00 C4.8
2005/09/09 09:59:00 X3.6
2005/09/09 12:47:00 C3.0
2005/09/09 15:26:00 C4.2
2005/09/09 15:43:00 C2.8
2005/09/09 16:38:00 C1.0
2005/09/09 17:51:00 M1.9

SolarSoft Latest Events Archive (see all the flares here):
www.lmsal.com...

ACTIVE SUN: Solar activity is very high. Earth-orbiting satelites have detected four X-class solar flares this week, including one X17 monster. NOAA forecasters say there's a 50% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours, possibly causing radio blackouts and radiation storms.

The source of all this activity is giant sunspot 798. So far, except for brief radio blackouts, the flares from sunspot 798 have had little effect on Earth. The explosions have not been squarely Earth-directed because the 'spot is near the sun's eastern limb.

This will change: In the days ahead, the sun's rotation will turn sunspot 798 increasingly toward our planet. The last time sunspot 798 was facing Earth, in late August, it sparked strong auroras seen as far south as Utah and Colorado. We might get more such displays next week if sunspot 798 remains active.
______________________________________

Typhoon Khanun aims south of Shanghai
winds 90kts, pressure 954mb



Hurricane Ophelia to do the loop de loop?.
Target: Beaufort, South Carolina region (track may change)





Tropical Data- larger images and more information at these sites:

www.nhc.noaa.gov...
www.npmoc.navy.mil...
www.nrlmry.navy.mil...

[edit on 9-9-2005 by Regenmacher]


reply posted on 9-9-2005 @ 03:30 PM by Regenmacher


2005/09/09 19:13:00 X6.2

Proton flux levels may go off the charts soon.
www.sec.noaa.gov...

NOAA ISSUES ANOTHER SPACE WEATHER WARNING;
POWERFUL SOLAR FLARE ERUPTS

Sept. 9, 2005 — Forecasters at the NOAA Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo., continue to observe significant flares on the sun Friday in NOAA sunspot Region 808. This is the same region that yielded a powerful X-17 flare on Wednesday—R4, severe radio blackout, on the NOAA space weather scales. NOAA cautions satellite and communications groups are already experiencing problems due to this activity. Other agencies impacted by space weather are at increasing risk for service disruptions. This includes other space activities, electric power systems, high frequency communications and navigation systems such as global positioning systems.

The active Region 808 is currently located near the southeast limb of the sun's surface. This region is a large and very complex sunspot cluster, which represents an intense magnetic area of the sun. "Early indications are that these sun clusters are nearly nine times the size of Earth," said Bill Murtagh, solar forecaster at the NOAA Space Environment Center. Murtagh added, "Typically, the larger the size and complexity of sun clusters, the more potential there is for producing significant solar storms."

"We are expecting continued significant solar flares from this region as it makes its passage across the visible part of the sun over the next 11 days," said Murtagh. "Strong to severe radiation storms are possible as well as significant geomagnetic storms, which can cause significant problems to technology in space, as well as electrical power systems on Earth. It is these geomagnetic storms that create auroras, dramatic visual displays in the sky.

more here:
www.noaanews.noaa.gov...




[edit on 9-9-2005 by Regenmacher]
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