Severe Geomagnetic Storm Research Project:, page 5

Discovery Channel comments about it too:

A rowdy sunspot cluster hurled a record-breaking flare into space on Wednesday, blacking out all high- and low-frequency radio communications on both American continents, causing power surges, blinding satellites and lighting up aurorae, and more trouble is likely on the way, say experts.

Power systems in the northern U.S. states and Canada reported electrical surges

Aurora, were seen as far south as Arizona over the weekend

NASA is on alert staffing their desks around the clock to ensure that astronauts aboard the International Space Station are ready for any shower of heavy radiation.

You can read it here:
dsc.discovery.com...

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN #05- 11
2005 September 14 at 11:30 a.m. MDT (2005 September 14 1730 UTC)

**** MORE MAJOR SOLAR FLARES EXPECTED FROM ACTIVE NOAA REGION 808 ****

NOAA sunspot Region 808 continues to produce major solar flare activity as it rotates to the center of the visible surface of the Sun. On September 13, this sunspot region produced three solar flares that resulted in strong (R3) radio blackouts. A large Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted during one of these flares, and is expected to create a significant geomagnetic disturbance late today or early on September 15. A moderate (S2) radiation storm is in progress following yesterday's flare activity. Active Region 808 has decayed slightly over the past 48 hours; however, it is still a large and complex sunspot group capable of producing major flares. Because of the current position of this region on the Sun, further flare activity has greater potential to impact Earth. Major flare activity over the next few days may result in significant geomagnetic and radiation storms. The threat of significant solar activity from Region 808 will diminish as it rotates to the far side of the Sun on September 21-22. Agencies impacted by space weather storms should continue to closely monitor space weather conditions during the next week.

sec.noaa.gov...

Comment from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium): The multiple X-flare of yesterday evening turned out to be a triple one: X1.5, X1.4 and X1.7 peaking at 19:27UT, 20:04UT and 23:22UT respectively. The source region is once again 37/0808 now located at the central meridian. A full halo CME was associated with this event. The CME was first visible in C2 at 20:00UT, Sept 13. The speed measured by CACTus is 1437 km/s. We expect the CME to arrive late Sept 14, early Sept 15. A minor to major geomagnetic storm is possible. The CME induced a proton storm as the >10MeV curve passed the threshold early in the morning.

Sun Spots: 95 as of 09/13/2005 :: Flux: 114 | Ap: 39 | Kp: 3 (32 nT)
Solar Wind: 571 km/s at 2.9 protons/cm3
Aurora Activity Level was 7 at 1805 UTC
_______________________________

Ophelia is making landfall today



HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005

...EYEWALL OF OPHELIA CONTINUES TO BATTER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
www.spc.noaa.gov...

Slow Seismic Slip Event Underway in Pacific Northwest
An important seismic event imperceptible to humans has begun in the Pacific Northwest as predicted, according to the government agency Geological Survey of Canada.

The chance of a major earthquake is 30 times higher now for a roughly two-week period, but the odds are still remote, scientists say.
www.livescience.com...

[edit on 14-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

As per the Kilauea volcano eruption, the triple x-flare was directed towards the central pacific. Hawaiin siesmic activity increased after the CME erupted.

Maybe we need to be more aware of the solar flare impact side of the planet and possibly it's antipode.

hvo.wr.usgs.gov...
earthquake.usgs.gov...

Mt St. Helens continues to rumble too with even larger tremors.
earthquake.usgs.gov...

Excellent information brought to us by Loam:

Tremors may mean the "BIG ONE" is on the way:

Vancouver — A silent tectonic event, so powerful it has shifted southern Vancouver Island out to sea, but so subtle nobody has felt a thing, is slowly unfolding on the West Coast.

Scientists who are tracking the event with sensitive seismographs and earth orbiting satellites warn it could be a trigger for a massive earthquake -- some time, maybe soon.

He said experts are so convinced the event is a potential trigger that they have advised emergency preparedness officials to be alert.

The Globe and Mail

Mentioned by Worldwatcher on the Quake report forum:

A light earthquake occurred at 13:24:14 (UTC) on Thursday, September 15, 2005. The magnitude 4.0 event has been located in BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO. The hypocentral depth was poorly constrained. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.)

earthquake.usgs.gov...

___________________________________

Solar Activity
___________________________________

Current Levels: 2005 Sep 14 14:30 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm: G1
Solar Radiation Storm: S2
Radio Blackout: R3
Aurora Activity: Level 8
K-index: Level 4
Solar Wind: Speed-770 km/s Density-9.75 p/cm

Solar Flares:
2005/09/14 15:49:00 B8.3
2005/09/14 19:13:00 B6.9
2005/09/14 19:27:00 C4.4
2005/09/14 21:18:00 C4.3
2005/09/14 23:12:00 C5.8
2005/09/14 23:42:00 C3.7
2005/09/15 01:19:00 C8.5
2005/09/15 02:12:00 M1.3
2005/09/15 05:00:00 C2.6
2005/09/15 06:53:00 C1.8
2005/09/15 07:33:00 B8.1
2005/09/15 08:38:00 X1.1*
2005/09/15 10:42:00 C1.0

*SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2005 Sep 15 0830 UTC
Maximum Time: 2005 Sep 15 0838 UTC
End Time: 2005 Sep 15 0846 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.1
Optical Class: 1b
Location: S10W15
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
X1.1 CME centered over East Africa near Somalia.
Antipode: East Pacific (half way between French Polynesia and coast of Peru)

WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2005 Sep 15 0849 UTC
Valid To: 2005 Sep 15 1200 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2005 Sep 15 0840 UTC
charts: umtof.umd.edu...

Forecast:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to very severe storm on September 15. A very significant impact from the CME observed late on September 13 is expected to arrive before noon today. Unsettled to major storm is likely on September 16 becoming quiet to active on September 17 barring further CME activity in region 10808.

___________________________________

Tropical Weather
___________________________________

Ophelia to skirt North Carolina as Catagory 1 Hurricane:
speed:70kts pressure:984mb


___________________________________

Tropical Storm Kenneth and Tropical Storm Jova form in East Pacific

Tropical Storm Jova:- 40kts-1004mb
Hawaii Under threat of TS Jova as it may reach hurricane status before hitting the islands.




___________________________________

Tropical storm Kenneth: 45kts-1005mb



More tropical info here:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...
www.nrlmry.navy.mil...

[edit on 15-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Geomagnetic storm on the rise

Issue Time: 2005 Sep 15 1442 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2005 Sep 15 0852 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2005 Sep 15 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

sec.noaa.gov...
sec.noaa.gov...
_________________________________________

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 300 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
www.spc.noaa.gov...
_________________________________________

BEC Blames “Act of God”
Officials of The Bahamas Electricity Corporation said Monday that they are not responsible for any appliances or equipment damaged in the lightening storms over the weekend that resulted in New Providence being plunged into darkness.

"BEC cannot control Mother Nature," said General Manager Kevin Basden, during a press conference on Monday morning at the corporation’s headquarters that was called to explain what led to the island-wide blackout.

Storm started on O9-10-05 22:38 UTC;
sec.noaa.gov...
_________________________________________

Bayan Lepas Blackout: Huge cost expected

GEORGE TOWN, Sept 15:
The cost of yesterday’s 80-minute blackout in the Bayan Lepas Free Trade Zone is expected to be huge. He was commenting on the blackout about 1.30pm yesterday, which brought production to a standstill.
sec.noaa.gov...
_________________________________________

Los Angeles Utility Is Criticized Over Blackout

California regulators said that the state's grid had experienced wild voltage swings but that they had not been briefed by Los Angeles power officials about why the blackout happened or how far it went.

"We saw severe voltage swings and a drop in power loads, but we did not know what lines were out or why or the magnitude of the problem," said the system operator's spokeswoman, Stephanie McCorkle.

Los Angeles Blackout of 12:30-2 pm September 12, 2005
sec.noaa.gov...

[edit on 15-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Blackouts with various reasons for the failures, keep in mind there is no mention of connection to solar activity, however again these incidents are noted because of sheer coincidence with the timing of solar activity:

Stamford's emergency radio tower fails during blackout

University Hospital prepared for blackout

(Malaysia) Bayan Lepas Blackout: Huge cost expected

Indians, A's: Ballgame briefly in dark

East Pacific Explodes with Tropical Storm Activity

There are currently two tropical storms and two areas under investigation for tropical development in the East Pacific. All areas are projected to head towards Hawaii. TS Jova is expected to reach hurricane status before hitting the islands.

(click to enlarge above satellite map)

East Pacific
96E.INVEST
95E.INVEST
11E.KENNETH
10E.JOVA

The Kona low may shear these systems apart before they get too close to the islands, but at this point it's hard to say.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic:

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N. BROAD CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 7.5N46.5W TO 14N41.5W

95LINVEST at 25kts-1010mb


More info here:
www.nrlmry.navy.mil...
_________________________________________

Even more solar flares today:
2005/09/15 14:37:00 C1.0
2005/09/15 15:17:00 C7.1
2005/09/15 15:35:00 C5.2
2005/09/15 16:20:00 C1.1
2005/09/15 16:51:00 C4.8
2005/09/15 18:30:00 C2.3
2005/09/15 19:10:00 M1.0
2005/09/15 20:39:00 C1.5
www.lmsal.com...






[edit on 15-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

For reference:

Solar Activity Linked To Whale Strandings: Study

Surges of solar activity may cause whales to run aground, possibly by disrupting the creatures' internal compass, German scientists suggest.
University of Kiel researchers Klaus Vaneslow and Klaus Ricklefs looked at sightings of sperm whales found beached in the North Sea between 1712 and 2003.

They then compared this record with another set of historical data - astronomers' observations of sunspots, which is an indicator of solar radiation.

More whale strandings occurred when the sun's activity is high, they found.

and in current news:

Beached whale killed with explosives

Mike Meyer of Marine and Coastal Management told the SAPA news agency that the two-year-old whale had become stranded in shallow water at Mnandi Beach on Cape Town's False Bay coast after an apparent "navigational error".

Bucket brigade answers the call of the whale

13.09.05
It was discovered by a solitary jogger, but a stranded whale was soon surrounded by a crowd of hundreds who helped in a "textbook" rescue in the Bay of Plenty yesterday.

The 4m whale, believed to be a minke, was found stranded in the Ohiwa Harbour, south of Whakatane, early in the day. It had swum 5km up the harbour and got stuck in sand close to shore

Power Outage in Alaska

Power outage leaves thousands in the dark

Anchorage, Alaska - A major power outage is affecting parts of Anchorage tonight. Thousands of homes are in the dark from South Anchorage all the way to Eagle River.

According to Gary Fife at Municipal Light and Power, dispatch operators are telling him Chugach Electric's Beluga River installation lost a generator tonight. That caused a domino affect with several other substations shutting down.

Fife says the entire Southcentral inter-tie was affected, with upwards of 10,000 customers affected. Fife calls it a big hit. He says power to ML&P customers was restored at 9:03 p.m., but he is not sure about Chugach Electric customers.

There has been no word from officials at Chugach Electric on what caused the outage.

Current Levels: 2005 Sep 16 18:00 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm: G1
Solar Radiation Storm: S1
Radio Blackout: R1
Aurora Activity: Level 7
K-index: Level 1
Solar Wind Speed: 564 km/s at 1.24 p/cm

Forecast:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm on September 16 and quiet to minor storm on September 17-18. Sunspot 10808 continues to fade and is rotating out of geoeffective position.

Solar Flares:
2005/09/15 22:00:00 C3.8
2005/09/16 01:49:00 M4.4
2005/09/16 05:23:00 C1.1
2005/09/16 08:58:00 C1.2
2005/09/16 10:58:00 B4.3
2005/09/16 11:24:00 B8.1
2005/09/16 13:13:00 C1.5
2005/09/16 13:53:00 B6.9
2005/09/16 04:45:00 C6.1
2005/09/16 05:15:00 C7.9
www.lmsal.com...

Looks like an earthquake at the X1.1 antipode

*The X1.1 CME centered over East Africa near Somalia
Antipode: East Pacific (half way between French Polynesia and coast of Peru)

Magnitude 4.9 - SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
2005 September 16 03:40:41 UTC
earthquake.usgs.gov...

*Post Number: 1686914
_________________________________________

Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger, Study Says
www.gatech.edu...

ATLANTIC 95L.INVEST 25kts-1010mb
Area of concern brews in Atlantic.



Sept. 16, 2005 12:35 PM EDT...The northern extention from this tropical wave is being monitored for tropical cyclone formation. Upper-level winds are not favorable at this time but they could become more favorable within a day or two. The thunderstorm activity is being enhanced by a weak upper-level low to the west of the northern extention of the waves axis. There are no signs of organization at this time.

Global warming linked to increase of hurricanes
Ocean surface temperatures — one of the key drivers of hurricane intensity — have increased by an average of 0.5C (0.9F) over the same period, indicating a potential connection to global warming.
www.timesonline.co.uk...

Antarctic hole in ozone layer nears record size
The hole in the ozone layer above Antarctica has grown to near record size this year, suggesting 20 years of pollution controls have so far had little effect, the United Nations said on Friday.
www.alertnet.org...

Global warming 'past the point of no return
Experts believe that such a loss of Arctic sea ice in summer has not occurred in hundreds and possibly thousands of years. It is the fourth year in a row that the sea ice in August has fallen below the monthly downward trend - a clear sign that melting has accelerated.
news.independent.co.uk...

external image
(click above image to enlarge)

Today's Ozone from Earth Probe TOMS
jwocky.gsfc.nasa.gov...


[edit on 16-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Mexican volcano blasts ash, gas 3 miles into sky
September 16, 2005 - 1:19 pm

MEXICO CITY - Western Mexico's Volcano of Fire blasted ash and gas 3 miles into the sky on Friday with an explosion that was heard in villages 10 miles from the crater, according to local officials.

The Jalisco state civil defense agency said ash from the 10:46 a.m. (1146 EDT) eruption fell on towns to the northwest and it said emergency workers there were distributing hospital-type masks to protect against fine ash.

There were no reported injuries. The 12,533-foot volcano on the border of Jalisco and Colima states -- 420 miles west of Mexico City -- is among Mexico's most active and most dangerous volcanos.

It has erupted repeatedly in recent years. On July 27, a pre-dawn explosion shot incandescent rock, ash and steam up to 8,800 feet into the air.

Another blast on July 5 sent ash and gases nearly 3 miles up.

Universidad de Colima - click here bulletin translated to English thru Babelfish


[edit on 16-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Solar Minimum Explodes

Just one week ago, on Sept. 7th, a huge sunspot rounded the sun's eastern limb. As soon as it appeared, it exploded, producing one of the brightest x-ray solar flares of the Space Age. In the days that followed, the growing spot exploded eight more times. Each powerful "X-flare" caused a shortwave radio blackout on Earth and pumped new energy into a radiation storm around our planet. The blasts hurled magnetic clouds toward Earth, and when they hit, on Sept 10th and 11th, ruby-red auroras were seen as far south as Arizona.

2005 began with an X-flare on New Year's Day--a sign of things to come. Since then we've experienced 4 severe geomagnetic storms and 14 more X-flares.

Compare 2005 to the most recent Solar Max: "In the year 2000," he recalls, "there were 3 severe geomagnetic storms and 17 X-flares." 2005 registers about the same in both categories. Solar minimum is looking strangely like Solar Max.



more here:
www.physorg.com...

Freak solar cycle = freak earth events.

Solar activity

Current Levels: 2005 Sep 17 19:30 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm: none
Solar Radiation Storm: none
Radio Blackout: R2
Aurora Activity: Level 7
K-index: Level 1
Solar Wind Speed: 561 km/s at 0.83 p/cm

Forecast:
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on September 17-19.

Solar Flares:
2005/09/16 17:22:00 B7.7
2005/09/16 17:48:00 M1.3
2005/09/16 19:36:00 M3.5
2005/09/16 23:39:00 C6.2
2005/09/17 02:12:00 C2.0
2005/09/17 04:19:00 B8.3
2005/09/17 04:49:00 C3.3
2005/09/17 06:05:00 M9.8*
2005/09/17 09:20:00 C1.2
2005/09/17 09:39:00 C1.5
2005/09/17 10:36:00 C2.5
2005/09/17 15:04:00 C1.5
2005/09/17 15:36:00 B7.3
2005/09/17 16:59:00 B5.2
2005/09/17 18:14:00 B7.4
www.lmsal.com...

*The only major flare of an consequence was the M9.8 that fired off over southern India. A small proton flux increase was noted for this event. The M9.8 antipode is about 100km of coast of Peru. No earthquakes in the region as of this time.

Full moon tonight: 2005/09/18 O200UTC

Looks like the sun is finally settling down. Sunbspot 10808 decayed further and lost some area in the northeastern part of the main penumbra. This penumbra still has a strong magnetic delta structure with only minor separation between opposite polarity umbrae.

Will only report major flare events, unless solar activity picks up again.

Oceans give birth to two more storms today

Tropical Depression 17 Atlantic

Forecast track here

Tropical Storm LIDIA East Pacific

Forecast track here

Atlantic
Tropical Depression SEVENTEEN
Tropical Storm OPHELIA

East Pacific
Tropical Storm LIDIA
Hurricane KENNETH
Hurricane JOVA

West Pacific
Tropical Storm VICENTE
_____________________________________________

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70MPH
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
www.spc.noaa.gov...

[edit on 17-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Atlantic-Tropical Depression 18 Forms

Preliminary forecast indicates TD18 will be hurricane Rita as she enters the Gulf of Mexico.





Tropical Depression 17 develops and becomes Tropical Storm Philippe
At this time, Philippe is not consider a threat to land.

Geomagnetic activity, solar wind speed and proton flux continues to drop.

NRL is down, so here's a backup link:
tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil...

This news is in spanish, here is a summary translated for you:
Read article in spanish

Usually, sharks remain in Britain´s waters but, according to hypothesis, the arrival of plancton has moved them to the north.
During the last three years, more sharks have been seen at the scotish coasts. Sharks of eleven metres and more than 7 tons.

In 2002, only one shark was seen compared to a hundred sharks opposite the Cornualles Coast in SO of Britain. Nowadays, sharks can be seen in the Shetland Isles, north.

Plancton has arrived. Because of the warming, plancton is moving towards the north, following warm waters. Sharks just go where they can find their main food.

-----

Very interesting.

Here's the above shark article translated thru babelfsh, just click here

Magnitude 5.8 - MYANMAR-INDIA BORDER REGION*
2005 September 18 07:26:00 UTC
earthquake.usgs.gov...

*Earthquake was in the zone where that M9.8 flare was directed at.
(mentioned above)

Solar wind speed (429 km/s at 1.67 p/cm) is dieing down as tropical activity heats up.

Rita is becoming a major Hurricane Threat for Gulf States

Recon data shows that Rita has not quite reached hurricane intensity.The NOAA recon has found flight level winds of 66KT, which equates to about 55KT at the surface. Rita has accelerated to the west and is left of the previous forecast track as it begins to feel the influence of the ridge to the north. Rita is expected to pass just south of the Florida Keys in about 24-30 hours then move into the Gulf of Mexico.



RITA.55kts-994mb


New Radar System Developed To Monitor Space Weather
The technology, the Advanced Modular Incoherent Scatter Radar (AMSIR) system, was successfully field tested this month by SRI International, a Menlo Park, Calif.-based nonprofit research institute that conducts contract research and development for government agencies, businesses and foundations.

The AMSIR project is made up of three separate systems, which scientists call "faces," each of which uses phased array technology to measure the density and movement of electrons and ions in the ionosphere, at distances between 80 kilometers and 1,000 kilometers up in the sky.

Space weather is the term used to describe those conditions and processes in space that can have an effect on Earth's environment, including solar flares, coronal mass ejections from the sun, and changes and disturbances in the Earth's and interplanetary magnetic fields. Space weather can have detrimental effects such as disrupting power grids and causing interference with satellite communications.
www.space.com...
site: isr.sri.com...

Kind of quiet in here....too many charged particles making folks sleepy?
maps.dxers.info...









[edit on 19-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

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