SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN #05- 11
2005 September 14 at 11:30 a.m. MDT (2005 September 14 1730 UTC)
**** MORE MAJOR SOLAR FLARES EXPECTED FROM ACTIVE NOAA REGION 808 ****
NOAA sunspot Region 808 continues to produce major solar flare activity as it rotates to the center of the visible surface of the Sun. On
September 13, this sunspot region produced three solar flares that resulted in strong (R3) radio blackouts. A large Earth-directed coronal mass
ejection (CME) erupted during one of these flares, and is expected to create a significant geomagnetic disturbance late today or early on September
15. A moderate (S2) radiation storm is in progress following yesterday's flare activity. Active Region 808 has decayed slightly over the past 48
hours; however, it is still a large and complex sunspot group capable of producing major flares. Because of the current position of this region on the
Sun, further flare activity has greater potential to impact Earth. Major flare activity over the next few days may result in significant geomagnetic
and radiation storms. The threat of significant solar activity from Region 808 will diminish as it rotates to the far side of the Sun on September
21-22. Agencies impacted by space weather storms should continue to closely monitor space weather conditions during the next week.
Comment from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium): The multiple X-flare of yesterday evening turned out to be a triple one: X1.5, X1.4 and X1.7 peaking at 19:27UT,
20:04UT and 23:22UT respectively. The source region is once again 37/0808 now located at the central meridian. A full halo CME was associated with
this event. The CME was first visible in C2 at 20:00UT, Sept 13. The speed measured by CACTus is 1437 km/s. We expect the CME to arrive late Sept 14,
early Sept 15. A minor to major geomagnetic storm is possible. The CME induced a proton storm as the >10MeV curve passed the threshold early in the
Sun Spots: 95 as of 09/13/2005 :: Flux: 114 | Ap: 39 | Kp: 3 (32 nT)
Solar Wind: 571 km/s at 2.9 protons/cm3
Aurora Activity Level was 7 at 1805 UTC
Ophelia is making landfall today
HURRICANE OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005
...EYEWALL OF OPHELIA CONTINUES TO BATTER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
Slow Seismic Slip Event Underway in Pacific Northwest
An important seismic event imperceptible to humans has begun in the Pacific Northwest as predicted, according to the government agency Geological
Survey of Canada.
The chance of a major earthquake is 30 times higher now for a roughly two-week period, but the odds are still remote, scientists say.
[edit on 14-9-2005 by Regenmacher]