Tropical Storm/Hurricane Dennis

That pic shows it even farther east than the plotter diagram... No wonder they moved the projection cone... Looks like it may move again even more when the 2pm advisory comes out I'd wager...

NOTE: Many of the maps posted earlier maintain the same link so include the updates, if any are curious. For example, all of the projection map images link to one that is updated on NOAA's site, so even the older postings show a current projection map.

[edit on 7-7-2005 by Gazrok]

Just saw the eye, good news looks like the eye will miss Jamaica, not so good news for Eastern and Central Cuba though and if it stays true to that path, a few of the Keys might be under direct threat. Keep wobbling west Dennis.

and btw, Mandatory Evacuation for Tourists out of the Keys since the Hurricane Watch was issued for the Keys.

[edit on 7-7-2005 by worldwatcher]

What a diiference a day makes. Yesterday most weather watchers would tell you Dennis would go south of Jamaica and no way it would go north. The trend fo the last 18 hrs of this system certainly looks very bad for the keys and the entire gulf side of Florida. Hopefully P-cola will be spared, they are still recovering from Ivan and this one would be a catastrophic blow to that area.

2pm Advisory, Hurricane Dennis seems to be moving more on a NorthWest track, no longer a WestNorthWest track and the pressure is dropping meaning it is strengthening. Winds up to 110mph

Might be Category 3 by 5pm today.

Local Forecasters are saying South Florida should begin to see the effects of the hurricane by tomorrow evening thru Saturday morning. Unfortunately they cannot tell at this time, how significant those effects will be.

[edit on 7-7-2005 by worldwatcher]

That's only 1mph short of a Cat 3, so it pretty much is for all intents and purposes...

Man, I SO wanted to be wrong on this one...and I STILL want to be....as to where it's going to go.

I can't see any updates anywhere though yet, NOAA still had the 11am advisory showing, and the Weather Channel site had the last entry at noonish.... Still checking....

EDIT: Found the 2pm advisory, but they still haven't updated the probable strike cone...as that's bound to have changed in a bad way for us..... Given that shift, that moves me a LOT closer to the centerline of the cone....

[edit on 7-7-2005 by Gazrok]

The good news for Tampa Bay residents is the upper level wind currents. These usually push any impending storms to the south of Tampa.

Another image for ya'll.

Here's an all-in-one link for you weather buffs. (like me)

boatus.com...


EDIT: And statewide Doppler. Should be able to see the storm on doppler sometime friday night.

[edit on 7-7-2005 by ShadowHasNoSource]

someone please tell me what that Bermuda High is doing? Hopefully it is still strong over the state of Florida.

In other news, the webcam from Kingston Jamaica is down. Maybe a periodic check will help keep us informed once it's back up, hopefully the storm didn't trash it and it was purposedly taken down.
www.go-jamaica.com...

Webcam from the Dominican Republic is up and it doesn't look too bad there
www.windsofcabarete.com...

another good link, is the from the Cuban Institute of Meteorology
www.insmet.cu...

[edit on 7-7-2005 by worldwatcher]

Maybe this will help.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov...

www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov...

www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov...

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

Is there any place in the world that does not have natural disasters? I mean here we have hurricanes, midwest has tornados, and the west has quakes and volcanoes. lol it is amazing how primitive man survived!

Here´s a good link to watch hurricanes. You can see "loops" of the latest satellite images. If you´re viewing a loop, remember to click the refresh-button every now and then (They update every 15 minutes I think). On the maps for USA, there is also an option to view the loops as mpeg-videos.

NOAA: GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE SERVER

Dennis can now be seen under the maps for "Puerto Rico". Options for "Infrared", "Visible" or "Water Vapor" modes. Pictures or loops.

thanks shadow, okay granted I'm no expert at reading these maps but it looks like the Bermuda high is retreating to the east, a small high pressure system is by Louisiana and Alabama, leaving a clear path for Dennis to go straight into the Florida Panhandle.

I'm leaning towards a direct hit somewhere between Destin and Cedar Key. Hope I'm wrong to my fellow Floridians.

Originally posted by worldwatcher
thanks shadow, okay granted I'm no expert at reading these maps but it looks like the Bermuda high is retreating to the east, a small high pressure system is by Louisiana and Alabama, leaving a clear path for Dennis to go straight into the Florida Panhandle.

I'm leaning towards a direct hit somewhere between Destin and Cedar Key. Hope I'm wrong to my fellow Floridians.

I'm no expert either. I thought the exact same thing. But, why isn't that high pressure system taken into account in the projected path? Maybe it's too weak?

EDIT: Do you have your avatar on some kind of rotate? The image has changed 3 times already.

[edit on 7-7-2005 by ShadowHasNoSource]

Originally posted by ShadowHasNoSource
I'm no expert either. I thought the exact same thing. But, why isn't that high pressure system taken into account in the projected path? Maybe it's too weak?

EDIT: Do you have your avatar on some kind of rotate? The image has changed 3 times already.

The high pressures are taken into account but the highs that you all are talking about are too weak to significantly affect the storm's path.



And I would like to second that avatar question
If we had a list of all your avatars, how many pages would it be?

we can discuss my many avatars via u2, let's stay on topic please.

okay so maybe the high off of Louisiana is weak, but how far east is the Bermuda high supposed to move? Every slight bit to the East, the closer and more intense experience I'll have with Dennis.

It looks like the Keys is going to be in some trouble. Hurricane Warning now issued for Lower Keys. More mandatory evacuations issued.

5pm Advisory
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

btw, it's a Cat 3, possibly could be Cat 4 by tomorrow


[edit on 7-7-2005 by worldwatcher]

Originally posted by worldwatcher
okay so maybe the high off of Louisiana is weak, but how far east is the Bermuda high supposed to move? Every slight bit to the East, the closer and more intense experience I'll have with Dennis.

I don't even see the Bermuda High. If it's that red line close to Tampa then it's not marked as such.

Ok, check this out. www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov...

Go to the "12 Hour Fronts/Precipitation" and continue on through "Day 4 Fronts". It looks like the high pressure systems won't affect this storm much at all. Probably just a straight shot to Alabama.

Try this.

www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov...

thanks again shadow, according to last link the high even though retreating east won't pull the storm with it.

I also found this interesting link
cimss.ssec.wisc.edu...

this new forecast map from Accuweather is a little concerning


Gaz, the cone of error has you in it now

and this from their expert summary

hurricane.accuweather.com...
We expect Dennis to track over the central and western part of Cuba Friday afternoon and early Friday night, and end up in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, later Friday night. All U.S. interests, from the Florida Keys and the Florida west coast, all the way to the Louisiana coast, should closely monitor the progress of this strengthening hurricane. As of now, we believe Dennis will head for the central or eastern Gulf coast. Current thinking is over the western Florida panhandle. However, there continues to be different ideas on the exact track. The interaction with the higher terrain of Cuba could alter the hurricane's structure and cause to to react differently to the steering currents. The upper level high pressure ridge has weakened over Florida and the eastern Gulf while a strong upper level disturbance is now diving into eastern Texas. This will help to maintain a weakness in the upper level wind flow over the central Gulf and Dennis will turn northward ahead of this weakness. If the Atlantic high pressure ridge fails to build further west Dennis could track close to the west coast of Florida. If the upper level high pressure ridge builds stronger to the west the Dennis will be diverted more toward eastern Louisiana.

[edit on 7-7-2005 by worldwatcher]

I came up with my own scenarion over at ID, I wish I had more activityin my ID topic....

ignorancedenied.com...