The End of Oil Is Closer Than You Think

PHOENIX, i meant africa, sir!

Yes I thought so sir .What I find interesting is how we want everyone elses resources, at ANY cost. Did you know that if we tapped our OWN resources we could last almost as long?

I'd say Venezuela will be highest on that list.

BushCo. has been doing everything in its power to destablize Hugo Chavez' government. They even backed that big coup attempt in '02. Chavez has been warning everyone of this.

Good points. Personally I think dubyas got quite a few irons in the fire, so to speak.

What does fearless LeeDar think about this?


"We have enough coal to last for 250 years, yet coal also prevents an environmental challenge." — George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., April 20, 2005

That's what his Latin American spooks are busy doing.

Oh yeah we got spooks down there. Cleaning out darfur, and the Sudan area, which has some oil.
www.eia.doe.gov...
We are going to go after the Alaskan arctic refuge.
WE got Iran Dead in our sights.

The end of petroleum is obviously near or we would'nt be soo busy trying to procure all the worlds sources that we can.

[edited for spelling]

[edit on 29-4-2005 by phoenixhasrisin]

The big problem is China and India are in direct competition with us (USA) for remaining reserves. Their demand for oil is now as voracious as ours.

www.evworld.com...
Now we are faced with the global oil-production peak………the most
knowledgeable experts revised their predictions and now concur that
2005 is apt to be the year of all-time global peak production.

It will change everything about how we live.

We know that our national leaders are hardly uninformed about this
predicament. President George W. Bush has been briefed on the dangers of the oil-peak situation as long ago as before the 2000 election and repeatedly since then.

In March, the Department of Energy released a report that officially acknowledges for the first time that peak oil is for real and states plainly that "the world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and will not be temporary."

edition.cnn.com...

China 'could trigger oil collapse'

Thursday, June 16, 2005 Posted: 0214 GMT (1014 HKT)

At it's meeting in Vienna on Wednesday, OPEC lifted output limits to 28 million bpd.

(CNN) -- World oil prices are in a "final frenzy" ahead of a possible collapse soon, with the likely trigger a sharp drop in China's crude imports, according to noted China-watcher and economist Andy Xie.

Xie, who is the Hong Kong-based chief economist for Morgan Stanley in Asia, said in a commentary Thursday that global oil demand is weakening as the global economic cycle starts to turn down.

His warning of a price collapse later this year comes as OPEC lifts its output limits to 28 million barrels a day and oil continues to trade above $55 a barrel, within sight of the $58 record high it reached in April this year.

At the time, rival investment bank Goldman Sachs warned the oil market could be in the early stages of a "super spike" that could see prices go as high as $105 a barrel.

But Xie said on Thursday that the reason oil prices have kept rising this year in the face of weakening demand is the weight of speculative money betting on oil price moves.

"The financial sector may have become dependent on the trading profits from oil. As evidence accumulates over weakening demand and strong supply, I believe oil prices could collapse," Xie said.

On Wednesday the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the oil cartel that supplies about 40 percent of world demand, agreed to raise its formal production quotas by 500,000 barrels a day to 28 million bpd and foreshadowed a possible further 500,000 bpd increase within weeks if prices stay high.

While most analysts say oil demand is still strong, Xie says it is weakening and that huge investment in the energy sector, including alternative energy supplies such as LNG, oil sands, coal gasification and liquefaction, should keep supply high for years.

"The hype over 'endless' energy demand from China and India has triggered a massive boom in investment in this sector," he said.

He said the production capacity that would flow from these investments "may keep a lid on oil prices for many years to come".

According to Xie, China's oil imports are declining as it switches to coal for electricity generation, while at the same time the United States' oil inventory is rising.

Xie said China's oil imports declined by 1.2 percent year on year in the first five months of 2005, while the U.S. oil inventory increased by 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2005.

But instead of oil prices falling in the face of weakening demand, prices were up 46 percent in the five months of the year and 50 percent higher in the first quarter, on a year on year basis.

-- "The answer, I believe, is that there are too many oil traders engaging in oil price speculation. They will likely keep prices up until an oil market collapse. That day is not too far away, I believe," Xie said.

-- He said he expected deceleration in the global economic cycle to quicken in the fourth quarter of 2005, to the point where the "oil bubble" may burst.

-- Xie's view is in sharp contrast to most other analysts. After the OPEC decision on output Wednesday, most said they were concerned about supply constraints in 2005.

-- "Even at the most optimistic estimate the spare capacity of OPEC is still too slim to reassure the market," William Davie, chief economist at energy consultancy Simmons and Co., told Reuters news agency.

-- Global demand is expected to hit 86.4 million bpd in the fourth quarter from a seasonal low of 82.5 million in the second quarter.

-- "What's scary is that we're just moving out of the lowest period of demand for the year and OPEC at full stretch was unable to keep prices down," Gary Ross of U.S. consultancy PIRA Energy said.

-- "World demand in the second half will average 3 million barrels a day more than in the second quarter."

-- But as evidence of weakening demand became more apparent, the market "may panic and correct in the most speculative fashion -- it could collapse."

I was in Grand Junction Colorado a few weeks ago visiting my Mom and I saw dozens of Haliburton trucks. I've also heard that that part of CO has a lot of shale and oil.

Whatever happened to the Alaskan Pipeline?

It was built.... Sorry. I was a kid in Washington state when they were building that. I knew a lotta guys who went up and helped build it. Havn't heard anything about it since.

Haliburton takes over Colorado! No one's safe!

The use of synthetics is only good for lubricants replaced. It does nothing for the usage of oil in fertilizer production, pesticide production, airline & automotive fuels, and home heating.

There is nothing on the horizon that can replace the energy output of oil. Not even the combined efforts of all known renewable energies, not to mention the giganormous cost of conversion of the entire US infrastructure to this new power source.

ECK, the reason for the destabalization of Chavez' government isn't about oil, but the spread of Cuban communism in the western hemisphere.

His "administration" supports the likes of FARC. Here is a good link to a quick history of that organization:
cocaine.org...

I live in the country, 60 miles from a "city" 15 miles from a "town"

Sufficient for everything except electricity.


Am I worried about oil?

Not at all.

Do you produce your own food; have a good source of water; and alternative means of transportation?

we own around 900 acres of farm land. we grow all varities of cereal crops. we have 2 large gardens that we grow our own vegetables.

we have our own well water system and dugout water collection.


as for transportation, i guess it depends of what you are going to be doing.

obviously you wont be using any machinery because of the lack of fuel.

i guess transportation would be horses, walking, bikes, etc.

We have our own fuel storage, so we could stockpile some for emergencies before everything goes nuts.

again, im not worried of anything like a severe oil shortage just yet.

i should also mention that we have natural gas lines for heat, but we also burn wood.


of course security might be a problem.

Sounds like you're way ahead of most. That's good. Do you guys can your veggies & fruits? Seems like no one does that anymore.

my grandma does, but only fruits.

peaches mostly. although we cant grow peaches here.

i should note that no, i dont live this lifestyle because i think something is going to happen, its just the way i do.

also we do hunt, deer, elk or moose in the hunting seasons. that provides most of our food.

aside from other products of course.

hehe im starting to sound like some savage.

i still dont think we will have to worry about an oil shortage for quite some time.

Survivalist.

And hey - its better to be safe than sorry.

With Peak Oil, things will not go from abundance to nothing overnight.

Personal adjustment will be annoying and painful, but not impossible
for most people.

For instance, many people could quite adequately commute to work on a scooter,
maybe even an electric one. Of course it will not have the cargo capacity of
a larger vehicle, but how often do you really need that full capacity? If gasoline
is $10 a gallon, you will learn to make that decision frequently. And when you
need to drive your car, you'll drive it and pay the gas. It may end up being only
one day a week instead of 7. You'll do all your bulky shopping then.

Cargo vans + trucks will still use fuel, because they need to run for their business. Many
will convert to compressed natural gas.

The elderly will have the most trouble if they are too frail to take bicycles, scooters or motorcycles.