Let's Take A Look Back At China

originally posted by: hounddoghowlie
you and yours might want to start eating and using all those survival supplies you stocked up on before the dates run out.

How will I ever eat all my non-perishable food before it goes bad?! How long do I have to drink all my water before it goes bad?

originally posted by: a325nt
I think that China is lying about their numbers.
I also think, based on evidence, that Chinese government took control of crematoriums nation wide months ago and has been running them 24/7 well over capacity to cover up the truth.

so are they lying and inflating the mortality rate to 3.9%?

Or are they lying and deflating the mortality rate and it is actually higher than 3.9%?

originally posted by: a325nt
I think that China is lying about their numbers.
I also think, based on evidence, that Chinese government took control of crematoriums nation wide months ago and has been running them 24/7 well over capacity to cover up the truth.

I was actually the first person on ATS to make a thread about this. I was called a fearmonger.

a reply to: Daughter2

Good post.

I think this...

4, The rate is based on an overwhelmed medical staff. Get the virus before or after the peak and you might fare better.

Seems to me to be a very plausible explanation.

Regardless of actual true numbers, I would expect China to deal well with an outbreak. One of the only benefits of a one party state is that in times of real crisis you have both the power and the authority to impose whatever measures you feel necessary.

originally posted by: putnam6
Dont trust China's numbers either however look at other countries figures, especially those close by like Japan, South Korea and of course all the other nations and the death rate is still within a few points outside Italy and Iran all other countries are well less than 3.9%. South Korea got 7755 known cases and less than 1% mortality.

Which kind of backs up the two strains of the virus, perhaps most the western world is getting the less virulent strain while Italy and Iran got the other.

The WHO has been saying .5 to 1%

originally posted by: Necrobile

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
Now what I want to point out is that we can see now that 80% of China's cases have had an outcome and there are relatively few new cases. I think we can get an accurate mortality here because of this. As of right now so far China's mortality rate is 3.9%. And with only 20% left to either die or recover I think this 3.9% mortality rate is going to remain about the same.

I have to agree with the others, I really do not believe China is giving very accurate numbers at all. China is known for not giving a # about it's people, yet this is how they're reacting to something we're told isn't any worse than the common flu.

The country can censor and make anything/anyone disappear that they do not wish to have around, so why should we believe their numbers?? If the numbers were as "nice" as are being reported, I wouldn't think they'd go to such measures as the video describes.

If you agree with the others then I propose the same question to you.....

If China is lying about their numbers then they are logically fudging the numbers to make it look like a smaller mortality rate right? Otherwise they are lying about their numbers and inflating the mortality rate?

Which is your position?

So far I haven't received an answer from all you smart people that claim that China is lying about their numbers. I'm not denying that they are in fact lying about their numbers, maybe they are. But if YOU say they are then I ask IN WHICH DIRECTION?

Again, If China is lying about their numbers then are they lying to make the mortality rate higher or lower???????????????????

I

originally posted by: Gothmog
What makes you think that ?

Because China is a repressive country and for decades they have not told the truth to anyone, let alone their own people. Judging by some of the footage in China where people were forcibly rounded up and taken to quarantine hotels, I would image that many people are too afraid to let the authorities know they are ill!

To the OP the mortality rate you state in China of 3.9% is quite high, but then China's healthcare system is rudimentary, and it is likely the Chinese are underreporting whether knowingly, or unknowingly. Clearly countries (like South Korea) who have a better healthcare system are likely to have a reduced mortality rate, at least that's what we hope.

The projections are stark. Even if you said a 2% mortality rate was the end result, the potential for a high toll on life is very worrying. Also factor in what happens when this virus starts spreading across parts of the world with no useful healthcare in place, or the means to count the incidents of infection.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

does anyone have a good graph of mortality dates and provinces ?

its my opinio - that as an emergent illness - the first responses are often inadequate // ineffective - as they simply dont know hat they are dealling with

hence higher mortality

originally posted by: ignorant_ape
a reply to: Alien Abduct

does anyone have a good graph of mortality dates and provinces ?

its my opinio - that as an emergent illness - the first responses are often inadequate // ineffective - as they simply dont know hat they are dealling with

hence higher mortality

I'll give you that. This is reasonable and plausible. To the people that say the reason for the 3.9% mortality rate is because China is lying about the numbers, I say ....are they lying about the mortality rate to make it appear lower or are they lying about the mortality to make it appear higher??

More to your point, let's look at South Korea, they have been very proactive as opposed to reactive with this disease. They have tested over 140,000 people in their attempt to get ahead of covid-19. How many people has the U.S. tested?

I think in order to keep the mortality rate down we need to look at South Korea as an example. But this isn't going to happen in the U.S. just like it didnt happen in Italy.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
I think this mortality rate of 3.9% is accurate for covid-19

This is based on a totally false presumption.

None of the figures cited - even if accurate - reflect the likely huge number of infected but undetected cases, which would dramatically reduce the CFR.

Personally, I believe they could likely have many hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of undetected that are either asymptomatic, or only have minor symptoms and are never tested to make the determination.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
let's look at South Korea, they have been very proactive as opposed to reactive with this disease. They have tested over 140,000 people in their attempt to get ahead of covid-19. How many people has the U.S. tested?

I think in order to keep the mortality rate down we need to look at South Korea as an example. But this isn't going to happen in the U.S. just like it didnt happen in Italy.

Just to point out the obvious... their testing proactivity only lowers the CFR number to reflect something closer to reality - it does nothing with respect to anything else.

originally posted by: tanstaafl

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
let's look at South Korea, they have been very proactive as opposed to reactive with this disease. They have tested over 140,000 people in their attempt to get ahead of covid-19. How many people has the U.S. tested?

I think in order to keep the mortality rate down we need to look at South Korea as an example. But this isn't going to happen in the U.S. just like it didnt happen in Italy.

Just to point out the obvious... their testing proactivity only lowers the CFR number to reflect something closer to reality - it does nothing with respect to anything else.

So China raised their mortality rate to 4% to make themselves look worse? 96% of China's cases are over with, they have either died or recovered. 4% died and at 96% reporting I argue that is an accurate number if not skewed to look lower than it actually is.

South Korea is an example of when you catch the cases early and get people treatment early. They are an example of what happens when we are proactive instead of reactive. Not allowing a massive spike of people to get the disease and overwhelm the medical system is what happened in South Korea.

Do you think Italy is lying about the number of people dying in their country? They have a huge death toll because of their slow response to covid-19. They are overwhelmed with the sheer amount of people needing medical attention and literally people are dying because they can't get the proper medical attention.....many of these people if not most would normally have lived if they did get medical treatment.

This is exactly what is going to happen in the U.S. but much worse and on a much larger scale.

Here is a reason for China to inflate their numbers, are they not one of the major manufacturers of pharmaceuticals? Bump up their death tolls and get more orders for medicines. If they are on the downward end of the infection they will be amongst the first to begin manufacturing again.

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
So China raised their mortality rate to 4% to make themselves look worse?

I actually have no clue what their real numbers are, but...

South Korea is an example of when you catch the cases early and get people treatment early. They are an example of what happens when we are proactive instead of reactive.

Maybe they have been better at treatment, but you are assuming that is all.

SK has been doing a lot more testing. More testing reveals the reality that a whole lot of people can be infected with the virus but be either completely asymptomatic, or have symptoms minor enough they never feel the need to go to a doctor.

More confirmed, but asymptomatic/minor symptoms cases equals much much lower CFR.

I never got go to the doctor, been extremely ill with the flu before, and just did what you do to get better - lots of water, fast, bed rest.

Not allowing a massive spike of people to get the disease and overwhelm the medical system is what happened in South Korea.

So, what did they do, exactly, to prevent the massive spike?

Do you think Italy is lying about the number of people dying in their country?

Am I a mind reader? No.

They have a huge death toll because of their slow response to covid-19.

They have a huge death toll because it got loose like crazy in their elderly community, and their state run medical system wasn't able to handle to the result.

The median age of the ones who have died in Italy is 81. That is the median. Which means many were older, and yes, many were a little younger.

They are overwhelmed with the sheer amount of people needing medical attention and literally people are dying because they can't get the proper medical attention.....many of these people if not most would normally have lived if they did get medical treatment.

This is exactly what is going to happen in the U.S. but much worse and on a much larger scale.

Yes, yes, I know, doom-porn excites you. By all means, revel in it... it isn't going to last much longer.

a reply to: tanstaafl

Maybe they have been better at treatment, but you are assuming that is all.

As I have pointed out, South Korea has performed very well as far as testing proactively. Did you know that testing is part of the treatment process? So no, it's not an assumption that South Korea has been better at treatment, it's a fact.

SK has been doing a lot more testing. More testing reveals the reality that a whole lot of people can be infected with the virus but be either completely asymptomatic, or have symptoms minor enough they never feel the need to go to a doctor.

More confirmed, but asymptomatic/minor symptoms cases equals much much lower CFR.

Yes this is obvious. But does it also drop the overall number of deaths? No, because guess what, after you test you can find out who has it and who doesnt and therefore you can contain the disease. Yes containment, that's the first step in controlling a pandemic. You dont want to wait till a bunch of people get sick and then test because by then it might be too late. Too late as in the spike of people getting the disease all at once can cause your health system to get overwhelmed and overburdened and thus raise the mortality rate to unnecessary levels.

They have a huge death toll because it got loose like crazy in their elderly community, and their state run medical system wasn't able to handle to the result.

The median age of the ones who have died in Italy is 81. That is the median. Which means many were older, and yes, many were a little younger.

It got loose like crazy in their community.....period. Because as I pointed out, they were reactive and not proactive. This disease doesn't just seek out only old people, it doesn't work like that. People that get the disease that dont show symptoms are still spreading it. This is why proactive testing is important. But I'm glad you seem to think that people's lives mean less as long as they are old.

Yes, yes, I know, doom-porn excites you. By all means, revel in it... it isn't going to last much longer.

Yeah okay buddy. I got called a fearmonger when I said covid-19 was going to escape China and spread around the world too. I told everyone to stock up on supplies and get ready for a quarantine. Got called a fearmonger then. Those people are laughing now are they?

Seeing something that is going to happen and pointing it out isnt "reveling in doom porn". If you were with someone who was driving and they were about to hit something they didnt see, would you not point it out? Or would you decline because you might be "reveling in doom porn?"

You can't use China and their terrible treatment of their ill as an example of an expected death toll in other places. Well, I mean, you can, but it would be wholly inaccurate.

Yes, this whole thing is SOOOOOO bad that today received a package I ordered from China just a month ago. ALL THE WAY FROM CHINA. From start to finish. This is all created BU!!S#IT and only morons are freaking out about it. It'll be gone in 3 months and the next BS creation can take its place.

originally posted by: Puppylove
You can't use China and their terrible treatment of their ill as an example of an expected death toll in other places. Well, I mean, you can, but it would be wholly inaccurate.

How about Italy?

Meh I don’t trust the numbers. When everyone starts getting sick all around you, trust your heart. Trying to count thousands of sick people and counting them in chaos, meh more people are/got sick in China and more people died, then is being reported. Lol hell man they censored all their social media, on the ground independent Chinese reports disappeared and a doctor who tried to warn everyone conveniently caught the virus and died. No I don’t trust any numbers. When I start seeing everyone sick around me I will know what time it is.