Let's Take A Look Back At China

I'm going to get right to the point.

As of this writing, China has a total of 80,967 cases.

Of these cases 16,227 are still infected....20%

3,162 have died ...................3.9%

61,578 have recovered........76.1%

Now what I want to point out is that we can see now that 80% of China's cases have had an outcome and there are relatively few new cases. I think we can get an accurate mortality here because of this. As of right now so far China's mortality rate is 3.9%. And with only 20% left to either die or recover I think this 3.9% mortality rate is going to remain about the same.

I think this mortality rate of 3.9% is accurate for covid-19. Some say it's like 1% or so but that most definitely is not the case for China and China is our oldest and largest sample so China's numbers are going to give us our most accurate mortality rate.

What do you guys think?

THIS IS A REALLY NICE TRACKER

a reply to: Alien Abduct

You trust the CCP numbers? It's too early here to laugh that hard.

I think that China is lying about their numbers.
I also think, based on evidence, that Chinese government took control of crematoriums nation wide months ago and has been running them 24/7 well over capacity to cover up the truth.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

I need to laugh or I would cry.....my gauge is my kids in the incubators we call primary school.

Even with all the cases resolved that number may not be accruate:

1. Under/over reporting of deaths. Someone has stage 4 cancer and gets the virus - they will say it's the virus and not cancer. Cremate people without paper and that will bring it down.

2. Under/over reporting of non-fatal cases. Let's say you don't want to be dragged kicking and screaming and taken to a detainment center (i.e. health center with any help). I would guess many people may want to avoid that. If a had a mild virus I might pop a few cough drops and just stay in and never report I was sick. Or on the other hand, if you did become very sick and could not get a bed - you were never confirmed or suspected.

3. That rate is based on a very new virus. It will come down once they start to test treatments.

4, The rate is based on an overwhelmed medical staff. Get the virus before or after the peak and you might fare better.

5. I would look at the final numbers from the diamond princess and then adjust the numbers based on the average age of cruise passengers. (If the Diamond princess only had a 2% rate and half were over 60, then for young people it will be very, very low). Korea actually took a semi random sample and I think the rate was only about .5%.

I could never trust China's numbers, No doubt China cooked the books, a lot of people died on the streets or at home locked up, no doubt those didn't make the statistic

a reply to: TritonTaranis

I could never trust China's numbers

Why not ?

originally posted by: a325nt
I think that China is lying about their numbers.
I also think, based on evidence, that Chinese government took control of crematoriums nation wide months ago and has been running them 24/7 well over capacity to cover up the truth.

I think that China is lying about their numbers.

What makes you think that ?

I also think, based on evidence, that Chinese government took control of crematoriums

That would be almost correct, except...
The Chinese government owns at least 51% of everything China.

Dont trust China's numbers either however look at other countries figures, especially those close by like Japan, South Korea and of course all the other nations and the death rate is still within a few points outside Italy and Iran all other countries are well less than 3.9%. South Korea got 7755 known cases and less than 1% mortality.

Which kind of backs up the two strains of the virus, perhaps most the western world is getting the less virulent strain while Italy and Iran got the other.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

i think it's what the WHO has been saying the whole time, between 2 to 4%.

from my last post in your whistle blower thread.

last i read 77,362 cases, and 2,618 deaths. or 2618/77362. which comes out between 2 to 4 % and 0.7 percent outside of china. this method for figuring CFR is mainly for the after math, but some use it during the outbreak.
My Post

you and yours might want to start eating and using all those survival supplies you stocked up on before the dates run out.

originally posted by: Gothmog
a reply to: TritonTaranis

I could never trust China's numbers

Why not ?

Must be because they lied and tried to cover it up since the beginning.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

Here is what I know to be accurate...it is understood that 80% of viruses originate from China. China may have held off a month or more before publicly acknowleding there was a problem. When Sars fist showed up a long time ago they connected the dots to the exotic areas of the wet markets. They changes their regs around the selling of exotic animals but after pushaback from what appears to be the wealthy they again relaxed the regs around these animals. Here we are today and we can say with 100% certainty that China knowingly put the world at risk. So why would they be honest about numbers now. They do what they want and no countries will call them out for this. Their president should be sent to the Hague for crimes against humanity. I will also say that being a vitually borderless world will always have serious implications. It will be interesting to see how many very senior polticians survive this. I expect my government to be outraged by China but the left and the right are cowards and there only purpose is to divide a country for the benefit of private companies and the military establishment. We are the punchline in this joke..

From my limited research I am seeing a genetic link to mortality rate. It looks like Asians run 3 to 5%, Latin, Middle Eastern based countries 7 to 10%, and Germanic, Nordic near 0. Take a look at the table in the attached link and let me know what you think.

www.washingtonpost.com...

originally posted by: Alien Abduct
Now what I want to point out is that we can see now that 80% of China's cases have had an outcome and there are relatively few new cases. I think we can get an accurate mortality here because of this. As of right now so far China's mortality rate is 3.9%. And with only 20% left to either die or recover I think this 3.9% mortality rate is going to remain about the same.

I have to agree with the others, I really do not believe China is giving very accurate numbers at all. China is known for not giving a # about it's people, yet this is how they're reacting to something we're told isn't any worse than the common flu.



The country can censor and make anything/anyone disappear that they do not wish to have around, so why should we believe their numbers?? If the numbers were as "nice" as are being reported, I wouldn't think they'd go to such measures as the video describes.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

I think that is the best hypothesis from what China gives us. I would wait until we see numbers from Korea and Italy combined and that would be pretty accurate.

I think Korea tackled it in an above average way. I think Italy was somewhat slow. The average of those is probably as good of a number as we are going to get.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

I've been using this site:

Coronavirus Update

Has sortable data columns and such.



The CCP numbers are skewed for several reasons, IMO, the first being that they denied, in action and in communications, that there was an issue at all...for the first several weeks. Even going as far as arresting medical personnel who spoke about the contagion, recognizing it's potential for an epidemic. That delay and outright denial caused their medical facilities to become overloaded in such a way that medical assistance could NOT be rendered to all infected. CCP also did not report their numbers accurately in the beginning of the outbreak, and refused outside help from various health organizations until it was too late. Further, because of the CCPs denial of the virus/outbreak, and the fact that Wuhan is a central hub, thousands upon thousands of individuals left Wuhan to other destinations. Therefore there was no containment. There are other reasons as well, but those are some of the major reasons.

There is no reason to think that without proper care, isolation, and information that China's mortality rate will be equalled in every country.

TLDR: China mishandled the outbreak which overloaded their medical systems which caused a higher mortality rate.

originally posted by: Trueman

originally posted by: Gothmog
a reply to: TritonTaranis

I could never trust China's numbers

Why not ?

Must be because they lied and tried to cover it up since the beginning.

Ok .Cite me sources.
No YouTube videos....
That crap happens waaaaayyyy too many times.

a reply to: Alien Abduct

yeahhh the only government i trust less than my own is an authoritarian communist one.

let wait until some not-commie governments start putting out numbers.

a reply to: kelbtalfenek

check out this website, i love this one:

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com...#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Not everybody who had the virus on China has been tested. You can be sure there were myriad people who had a mild case and didn't get counted. If you factor that in, your CFR would go way down.