posted on Aug, 30 2019 @ 10:49 PM
originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: LookingAtMars
Forecasting a hurricane is like playing darts blindfolded, with a board that's a fraction of the normal size. I've seen five models show five wildly
different forecasts. The farther out, the wider the margin of error, which shows as a wider cone.
I've live on the Texas coast (as in 100 yards from the shoreline of the gulf) that shoreline use to be around 150 yards plus.
Spaghetti models narrow the landing center, but not always accurate 3 days out or account for stalls in which they shift unexpectedly. That said, if
your are residing as coastal and prone to events, preparedness is (or should be figured) as part of life.
Models help predict to a point and have gotten much, much better, but listen to a good, experienced meteorologist.
Heed the warnings, always bug out if recommended and dont get complacent. I've seen these things spin off with surprising movements in less than a
day/night. We lost many neighbors in hurricane Ike being comfortable riding out many before. No one predicted a storm surge of over 12' until to
Stay safe Floridians..