Hurricane Dorian gains fury but might skirt Florida coast

a reply to: LookingAtMars

Normal and hurricane forecast aren't really words you usually use in the same sentence. Hurricanes are almost as unpredictable as a tornado. Not uncommon would probably fit better.

originally posted by: jrod
a reply to: Gothmog

Yarrr but there be a Russian version of HAARP somewhere in Seberia I suppose.

Actually , there is rumored to be one.
I don't know about Siberia , though .

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: LookingAtMars

Forecasting a hurricane is like playing darts blindfolded, with a board that's a fraction of the normal size. I've seen five models show five wildly different forecasts. The farther out, the wider the margin of error, which shows as a wider cone.

Agreed!

I've live on the Texas coast (as in 100 yards from the shoreline of the gulf) that shoreline use to be around 150 yards plus.

Spaghetti models narrow the landing center, but not always accurate 3 days out or account for stalls in which they shift unexpectedly. That said, if your are residing as coastal and prone to events, preparedness is (or should be figured) as part of life.

Models help predict to a point and have gotten much, much better, but listen to a good, experienced meteorologist.

Heed the warnings, always bug out if recommended and dont get complacent. I've seen these things spin off with surprising movements in less than a day/night. We lost many neighbors in hurricane Ike being comfortable riding out many before. No one predicted a storm surge of over 12' until to late...

Stay safe Floridians..

mg

a reply to: missed_gear

At 10pm the night before, every forecast said Iniki was passing south of us and was no threat anymore. Two hours later or so it made the 90 degree turn and steamrolled Kauai.

a reply to: Zaphod58
As I recall, it actually made a slight jog northeast, toward Oahu. Fortunately, that didn't last long.

a reply to: Phage

The initial turn had the eye going just about right down the center of the channel between Oahu and Kauai. Then it made that slight turn more westerly that took it over Kauai.

Dude it's spinning. Start freaking when you see it move in a straight line.
The resistance from the land on one side probably really turns it.

a reply to: Mandroid7

In this case what turns it is the east/west ridge deteriorating.

Didnt bill.gates want to spray one with cold water???


a reply to: Phage

Didnt bill.gates want to spray one with cold water???


a reply to: Phage

How else can they get my whole state on a tizzy buying up every ounce of water, ice, and gas they can, and selling out Home Depot / Lowes shelves?

I have lived in Florida(NSB) my whole life, and can say with experience, that the worst part of hurricanes are the people.

Seem to remember hearing about a hurricane before I was born that was making a beeline for Tampa Bay, then hours before the eye was due to make landfall it pulled a u turn.

Welp if that map the OP showed ends up being the one that will be mildly concerning for me since I live in South Georgia now.

a reply to: LookingAtMars

Or Occam wants to point out that the weather is doing what weather does and that means acting random or not following forecasts all the time due to explainable reasons.

The only weather forecasting that is 100% accurate is looking out your window and seeing what is going on.
Anything else is a forecast which means there is an element of chance or deviation in it.

a reply to: LookingAtMars

There is a big, giant upper level High pressure system sitting over NC. This is what is steering the hurricane, not something like HAARP. I know this to be true by the incredible weather we have been having in NC the past few day (and the news, LOL)

a reply to: PokeyJoe

It is the high over the Bahamas.

edit:

I meant Bermuda but entered the Bahamas.

a reply to: Irishhaf

I miss the evacs for them honestly. They sent 150 aircraft over two days to NAS Ft Worth JRB for this one. (And no matter what they call it, it's Carswell dammit.)

a reply to: roadgravel

No I think over NC, or off the coast of NC.

originally posted by: PokeyJoe
a reply to: roadgravel

No I think over NC, or off the coast of NC.

I should have said Bermuda, eastern Atlantic. It is not NC. It and the jet stream are the issue.

edit:

Link to weather map today

a reply to: roadgravel

Oh yeah.....Bermuda is off the coast of NC so yeah.

The latest: www.foxnews.com...

""As of 8 a.m ET Saturday, the National Hurricane Center warned of a "notable change" to Dorian's possible path into Tuesday, stressing that it could make landfall in Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas. Most of Florida remains in the so-called "cone of uncertainty""

Now that HARP has made Hurricane Dorian into an unpredictable monster, what should people in the Carolina's do?