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Explaining the Brexit Mess.

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posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:32 AM
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Brexit has plunged the UK into a constitutional crisis one that I think needs to be properly explained without the shade of partisan politics. I have tried to write this thread several times but due to the complexity of Brexit its proven difficult therefore I am intentionally trying to keep this as brief as possible where possible I will use videos and links that will provide further information for those interested. Now full disclosure, I voted to remain however for the purpose of this thread I only want to look at the facts and I apologise in advance if my own opinions overtly influence this thread.

Background.

Keeps this short, the UK voted to leave the EU by 51.9% to 48.1% with a voter turnout of 72.2% on the 23rd of June 2016. It is important to note that this referendum was not legally binding, it was an advisory vote however all major parties said that they would respect the outcome of the vote. David Cameron the then Prime Minister quit, Treasa May took over as Prime Minister and on 29th of March 2017 submitted the UK’s Article 50 declaration informing the EU that the UK intended to leave the EU on the 29th of March 2019. This was followed by a General election, 2 years of negotiation which culminated in a withdrawal deal which legally required parliamentary approval which it was unable to secure,May quit, we got a extension to article 50 Boris took over and now we have a bit of a mess on our hands with a deadline of 31st of October 2019. (A full Brexit Timeline can be found here)

First though to understand Brexit and the problem we are facing it’s important to understand the current make up of parliament because this is all about the maths.

State of Parliament.


The UK parliament is made up of 650 seats, when we vote in a general election, we vote for an individual usually aligned to a party to represent the views of the constituency in parliament. For any party to be in power they must win the most seats so they can have a “working majority” so to win you need 326 seats…. only it’s not quite that simple.

Sinn-Fein for a start don’t even bother turning up which takes the number down to 643, then on top of that the speaker also doesn’t get a vote (unless there is a tie) the Tellers two from each party four in total who do not get to vote. So realistically that takes us down to at least 638 seats in parliament. Therefore, to win a majority which is required to pass laws and such a party needs 320 (assuming no abstentions).

Still with me, here is the problem, right now the Conservative party only have 311 seats so to get over the line and keep a “working majority” they teamed up with the Democratic Unionist Party of Ireland to basically get 10 extra seats off them giving them a grand total of 321 seats a working majority of….1. Now its worth remembering that there are up to 50 or so Conservative MPs who are strongly opposed to a “no-deal” and the DUP will do anything to prevent the break up of the Union and oppose anything that moves Northern Ireland away from the rest of UK

The Backstop.

Ahhh the backstop right quick video first to explain what the backstop actually is:

Right so basically this is the backup plan, but it would mean that Northern Ireland would have a closer relationship with the rest of the EU than the UK it’s a way to avoid a hard-Irish boarder. The fear is that it would lead to a break-up of the union and would lead to Northern Ireland leaving the Union.

Because of this fear the current deal agreed upon by the EU and UK government is unable to pass through the UK parliament. They simply cannot get enough votes to get it to pass, due to the maths explained above. Not only are the DUP against this along with all of the opposition MPs but also most of the conservative backbenchers are against this plan.

To top it all off that means the EU has said that no other deal will be negotiated and that the Backstop must remain. And remember this deal took the best part of 2 years to negotiate the idea that this can all be done for Halloween is not realistic even if the EU were open to renegotiating the backstop.

This leaves the UK with the very real threat of No Deal.
edit on 18-8-2019 by OtherSideOfTheCoin because: (no reason given)




posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:32 AM
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No Deal.

I am pretty sure that this will be the most contentious part of this thread, again, sticking to facts. I honestly don’t want to get too caught up in this so all am going to say is that parliament does not want a no-deal. There is very little support for a no-deal, a recent poll found that only 10% of the public thought it would be good for the UK with 37% saying it would be very bad. Furthermore just today we have seen the leaked government reports that state:

Britain will face shortages of fuel, food and medicine if it leaves the European Union without a transition deal, according to leaked official documents reported by the Sunday Times

The Times said up to 85% of lorries using the main channel crossings “may not be ready” for French customs, meaning disruption at ports would potentially last up to three months before the flow of traffic improves. -

Another report from the office of budget responsibility also highlighted the economic damage to the UK economy with the Guardian reporting that:

A no-deal Brexit would plunge Britain into a recession that would shrink the economy by 2%, push unemployment above 5% and send house prices tumbling by around 10%, according to the government’s independent forecasting body.
In an assessment of the impact of Britain leaving the EU without a deal at the end of October, the Office for Budget Responsibility said the result would be a year-long downturn that would increase borrowing by £30bn a year.

Again, within this thread I really don’t want to get dragged down into a debate about no-deal the only point that needs to be made clear is this. To be clear I am not passing a opinion on this I am only reporting on what government findings have indicated would be the consequences of no deal to demonstrate why this is unpopular in parliament. There is a feeling among most politicians no-deal would be a disaster for the UK and they now want to take steps to avoid that….well everyone apart from Boris.

Boris has said that the UK will leave on the 31st of October, no ifs, no buts, with the EU saying they will not renegotiate that makes no-deal now much more likely and as explained above Parliament does not want a no-deal. Now regardless if a individual agrees or disagrees with parliament on this matter is inconsequential, the fact of the matter is that Parliament does not want a a no deal so will take steps to stop it.

So, what can Parliament do about it?


A quick summary of the problem so far. The government does not have enough numbers to get a deal to pass through parliament. The EU has refused to renegotiate, and Boris has said no matter what we are leaving on the 31st of October 2019 despite parliament being in opposition to this. The question then is what can be done to fix this impasse.

The first thing they could do is what they done back in March when parliament first forced government to seek an extension of article 50 which involved passing an act of parliament to legally force the PM to seek an extension. This was known as the cooper-Letwin bill. The problem with this however is that an extension doesn’t really change the problem, it’s just kicking the can down the street. So, something more extreme has to happen.

There are a few options, Parliament could pass a motion to revoke article 50 however this is the “nuclear option” and has very little support making it very unlikely. There is also the possibility of courts getting involved however it’s unlikely that they can do anything before the deadline given how slow they move. The legal argument is that Boris Johnson is overreaching his constitutional powers. Another option could be a second referendum but given the complexity of that and the lack of support it also seems unlikely.

Which leaves us the option that is currently being plotted. It has been reported that there is a plot within parliament to cast a vote of no confidence in the Johnson government through the fixed term parliament act. If passed this would give two weeks for a new government to be formed and the current plan that is being proposed is for an anti-no-deal government of national unity being formed with the opposition and those pesky anti-no-deal conservatives with Jeremy Corbyn taking over as PM for a short time to get an extension to article 50 and then call a general election with the promise that if Labour win they will have a second referendum. Again, this is also unpopular because Jeremy is unpopular even among his own MPs and there is disagreement with the opposition parties who would lead this government of national unity or if rather than a general election a second referendum should be called followed by a general election.

Now to prevent this it is possible that Boris could Prorogue parliament however the speaker has said that this would not be allowed to happen and that he would fight it.

There is one other last option for Boris Jonson and it’s a controversial one. In the event of a no confidence vote, he could use a loop-hole in the fixed term parliament act to have the UK sleep-walk into a no-deal. Under the law there is a two week grace period in which to form a new government, however it’s possible that Boris could claim that he is trying to form a new government in that time which he would obviously fail in (having lost the no confidence vote) and this would trigger a general election. It would dissolve parliament meaning that there would have to be at a minimum 5 weeks of campaigning with no bills passing through parliament. As such with the current time table a no-deal Brexit would just happen.

To get really crazy at this point if Boris was to try this, it is possible that we could see the Royal intervention but that remains a very distant possibility.


edit on 18-8-2019 by OtherSideOfTheCoin because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:33 AM
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Finally.

I know this thread has been a bit longer than intended but honestly trying to condense all of this stuff into one thread is basically impossible so I have included what I think are the most important parts for someone to understand why parliament is in the state it is in right now over Brexit.

A few other tings I just want to touch on quickly, Brexit is not a Left vs Right issue, Nigel Farage does not a seat in parliament nor do UKIP or the Brexit Party. The queen is very unlikely to get involved. In the UK we vote for our representative not for our Prime Minister and its also worth keeping in mind that Parliament is sovereign. I could go on all day with this stuff.....

As I said at the start of this thread, this is intended as a very brief explanation of the Brexit problem that is facing parliament. I am not intending to pass any personal views on it rather just give an actual explanation of what is going on. I think all too often personal political views get in the way of what is actually going on. The truth is that Brexit is much more complex than what I have outlined above, so if your reading this thinking I have omitted something important please comment. I know I have left out quite a bit, this has been a two year political saga and its impossible to say everything that needs to be said in one thread.

I will give this one personal view; Breixt is a total mess, regardless if you voted leave or remain our political establishment has failed us at every turn, this is a national embarrassment that needs to be fixed one way or the other, this is not the fault of any one political party or politician, nor is this a left vs right issue, but rather the entire political system that is broken.
edit on 18-8-2019 by OtherSideOfTheCoin because: (no reason given)

edit on 18-8-2019 by OtherSideOfTheCoin because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:40 AM
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It's a great big distraction.

Since the referendum, the number of abandoned or stalled or forgotten bills (unrelated to Brexit) is staggering (if I'm not mistaken) - not to mention the frequent change in Governments, ministers, cabinets and Prime Ministers. Sure, Parliament can still deal with new legislation etc whilst tackling Brexit, but the great distraction doesn't help one bit.

Then once Brexit occurs, it will still be a great big distraction because then there's the post-Brexit chaos to sort out..

Ridiculous.

If ever there was an example of "a great big distraction", THIS. IS. IT.



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:43 AM
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This is like the "Irish Home Rule" crisis a century ago.
If Brexit is not carried through in the near future, the issue will remain unresolved indefinitely, and political chaos can only get worse.
If Brexit is carried through as a fait accompli, the immediate issue will be resolved. Once a reversal of the decision ceases to be practical politics, the political atmosphere will begin to settle down, even if there has to be a lot of re-alignment first.
edit on 18-8-2019 by DISRAELI because: (no reason given)



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:45 AM
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That's a lot of TLDR.

Short version: The common folk voted. Those in charge really like the way they live ... and they're not going to let that change.

Personal quip: How 'bout them guns, ya Aenglish? Pitch forks and torches anyone?



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:46 AM
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a reply to: DISRAELI

I think honestly that its going to be settled this year one way or another.

Either we will walk away with no deal on 31st of October which honestly seems most likely

Or.

Corbyn's plan works and we have a general election and if Labour win we have a second referendum.

I feel like it's honestly going to come down to either of those options.



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:48 AM
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a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

I think the Brexit mess can be best summed up as people who can't accept the decision made by electorate do everything in their power to overturn that Democratically achieved decision , leaving us in a position of political limbo.




this is not the fault of any one political party or politician, nor is this a left vs right issue, but rather the entire political system that is broken.

I'm compelled to use the phrase "not fit for purpose" , 19th century government in a 21st century world.



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:49 AM
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originally posted by: Deplorable
That's a lot of TLDR.

Short version: The common folk voted. Those in charge really like the way they live ... and they're not going to let that change.

Personal quip: How 'bout them guns, ya Aenglish? Pitch forks and torches anyone?


Not really.....

Honestly its so much more complex than that, Boris is hardcore Breixt, he wants out with no-deal so do a lot of Tories, most of the Front Bench is on board with a no-deal Breixt. Hell even the opposition leader is very euro-skeptic.

I personally think its a oversimplification at this point to say the people in charge won't let us leave rather like I said I believe its our entire political establishment that is broken that has lead to us seeing this unprecedented impasse in British politics.



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:54 AM
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a reply to: gortex




I think the Brexit mess can be best summed up as people who can't accept the decision made by electorate do everything in their power to overturn that Democratically achieved decision , leaving us in a position of political limbo.


I honestly feel like its much deeper than that, right now we have a very pro-brexit government in power who are doing everything they can to force it though on the 31st of October.

Its the mechanisms of government that are failing, if the conservatives had a nice big majority this wouldn't be a problem, I don't really want to slide into my own personal opinions too much my intention honestly is just to provide a factual explanation for why parliament is stuck the way it is.

If some want to hold personal opinions about what is happening thats fine, if I start going on about mine I don't want to take away from the intention of this thread. I hope that makes sense.



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:55 AM
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a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

My bet is Boris takes the last option and attempts to sleep-walk the nation into a no-deal Brexit.

And if he does, shortly soon after, it will break the back of the U.K.

Scotland will be off, Ireland will do the same, good luck to the Welsh is my thinking, end of the day we are all going to needing the stuff, luck that is.



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:56 AM
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originally posted by: OtherSideOfTheCoin
a reply to: DISRAELI

I think honestly that its going to be settled this year one way or another.

Either we will walk away with no deal on 31st of October which honestly seems most likely

Or.

Corbyn's plan works and we have a general election and if Labour win we have a second referendum.

I feel like it's honestly going to come down to either of those options.


The second option (a second referendum) sounds horrific and even more chaos will ensue.

In my honest opinion, this was all completely unnecessary and - again - a great big distraction.



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:57 AM
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a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Robert Mercer. The guy behind Trump and behind Brexit.
They would have bought Greenland they get England for free...
*conspiracy



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:58 AM
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originally posted by: andy06shake
a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

My bet is Boris takes the last option and attempts to sleep-walk the nation into a no-deal Brexit.

And if he does, shortly soon after, it will break the back of the U.K.

Scotland will be off, Ireland will do the same, good luck to the Welsh is my thinking, end of the day we are all going to needing the stuff, luck that is.


If that occurs, then the conspiracy theory that "(the seeds of) Brexit" was a ploy by foreign agents (and/or a foreign nation) to distract/destabilise the UK may pop up again and have at least *some* weight...



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:58 AM
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a reply to: andy06shake



My bet is Boris takes the last option and attempts to sleep-walk the nation into a no-deal Brexit.


This is pretty much how I think its going to go, I think that when you take a look of the facts and the events leading up to this it seems clear that we are leaving on the 31st unless there is a huge political move. Corbyn's plan to stop a no-deal-brexit is a objectively good one (not saying I agree with it just that it has a change of having the intended effect) however its biggest problem honestly is Corbyn himself.



And if he does, shortly soon after, it will break the back of the U.K.


I think this will be the real legacy of Brexit the break up of the union.



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 08:58 AM
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a reply to: OtherSideOfTheCoin

Another extension is a mistake. We cannot keep kicking the can down the road. I voted to leave and that is what I believe we should do. Yes Deal or No Deal, not because I think the UK will come out smelling of roses I think anyone who voted leave knows that there will be some troubling years but as we Brits have always done, we will come through in the end. Kicking the can down the road with another extension just means the problem continues. Parliament has had untold options put before them to change Brexit, including another vote, to ignore the results and vote again only this time claiming it'll be legally binding and in law, although if Leave won a second time I do think they'd want a third vote then a fourth. No it's time as our government they make the tough choice, either carry out Brexit or toss the whole thing aside, either way it needs to be done and carried out NOW.

Deal or No Deal? Yes. The EU need us just as we need them. We need their trade and they need our trade, they need the 39 billion that we apparently owe them (personal opinion we don't) a deal can be done. The Backstop is not the route to take, this is clearly an attempt to break up the union, you can say that it isn't but it is. That is the threat that the backstop is and the EU would know this. The problem is neither side wants to be the one to break, neither side The EU figure heads and the idiots in parliament do not want to blink first. The EU has made no concessions for it beyond extensions which again just means we pay more into the EU.

I'm trying to be level headed, I'm trying as a leave voter to keep myself calm about this and say decide: Either throw out Brexit or carry it through. Trade talks can come later, yes it could take a while but trade etc. can be dealt with later they need to decide. Politicians are showing their true colours, those who don't want to leave the EU on either side aren't willing to vote against their party or their leader because it might bring about an election and they could COULD lose their seat. It is time they earned their money and decided.

Will I be peeved to high heaven that we might have to vote again? Of course because millions of people will not bother and the most likely outcome would be to remain just because those who voted to leave would give in and say "Well I wasn't listened to the first time around so whats the point now?" so remain will win but I doubt their margin will increase and actually think the turn out will be far less. Like I said its time they did their job, time to earn those expenses that they've all been scamming for years, the over paid jobs the two homes etc. put forward a plan or walk away.

Corbyn is not PM material, he is a liar, a dirty player and needs to step down. He is and will cost any election for Labour and I'm a Labour voter. Johnson plays the fool but I do believe he thinks the country is great and will do well after an initial troubling period. Oh and the EU have no incentive to do a good deal because if the UK comes out and we make a great success of it then other countries will want to do the same, rumours have been going about that Italy and Greece are keeping a very close eye on the UKs future.

How would I deal? Free Trade and limited free movement. Just like the EU was willing to do before Mental May decided to put forward her own wacky deal. Free Trade was offered on all things including services and limited free movement between the UK and the EU was also put on the table by the EU but May wanted to try and get her own through and that offer was taken away.

Time to make their decision.



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 09:03 AM
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a reply to: AnakinWayneII

I don't fancy the interim much considering the chaos strife, continued austerity and recession that will go hand in hand with our departure.

Also, after Brexit and the highly probable departure of Scotland from the UK, whats England going to do with Trident and her Nukes, as Faslane Naval Base will be out the window, and i don't think they have the facilities in place down south to accommodate the needs of the submarine fleet?



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 09:04 AM
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It was very refreshing to see you concentrate on your own government for a change and provide us with a relatively unbiased picture of what is happening in the UK. I truly appreciated the effort you put into your thread.



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 09:07 AM
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a reply to: Dwoodward85

Thank you for posting I found your opinions on this interesting, like I said I am trying to keep this as grounded is the reality of what is happening rather than my own opinions of what is going on and what should be going on. (Spolier radically different to yours)

There are a few things that you point out that are interesting and relate to the reality of the situation we face. For example you talk about how other Eurosceptic EU states are looking at what's happening with the UK interest and the EU knows this and that is why they're not giving the UK a easy time of it. Makes sense, if the UK gets a good deal then those other states will look to leave and before you know it the EU breaks up. A free-trade, limited movement deal would be seen as exactly that, too good to be true and other eurosceptic states would follow looking for a similar deal.

Regardless though the fact of the matter is that the EU has basically said no more negotiation and that would only change with a radical change in the UK governments position.



posted on Aug, 18 2019 @ 09:10 AM
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a reply to: andy06shake




whats England going to do with Trident and her Nukes, as Faslane Naval Base will be out the window, and i don't think they have the facilities in place down south to accommodate the needs of the submarine fleet?


Really don't want to go too far off topic with "what ifs" but I have come across this question in my research.

Essentially there are two possibilities, either the rUK agrees some kind of deal with Scotland to maintain and house the Trident fleet until facilities are up and running in rUK but this seems unlikely given how unpopular these weapons are in Scotland.

The second possibly is to pay the Americans to do it, again until a facility is built down south to do the same job.

Either way there are solutions.



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