Another Supermoon is Upon Us- and This Could Mean a Massive Quake

I don't suppose any of you might recall the last time I posted a thread like this:
A Super Duper Moon Is Coming- Will It Cause Another Mega Quake?

The answer was quite clearly yes in that case, as a 7+ hit New Zealand, much to the dismay of one ATS member who was there and lived through it. He quickly changed his skeptical tune.

So this time we have another one coming, and we are now in the window of perigee. I usually associate this with one week before to one week after- a two week spread of days centered around the perigee of a supermoon:

At 3:45 p.m. ET (19:45 UT) on March 19, the moon will be a mere 223,309 miles away from our planet, making for an especially close perigee.

Then, at 9:43 p.m. ET on March 20 (1:43 UT on March 21), the moon will officially reach its full phase. As a result of these combined events, the full lunar disk will appear 14 percent larger and 12 percent brighter than usual—a spectacle widely known as a supermoon.

www.nationalgeographic.com...

Already we've had a 5.7 in Turkey, and a 6.2 in Vanuato, and a 5.1 in Ecuador during this window. So the question is, will there be another one, possibly bigger? No one knows, but I for one am on the lookout.

ETA: And look where the Supermoon is now:
www.timeanddate.com...

OVER THE TOBA SUPERVOLCANO!- And what thread did I just post recently? Hmm... Scary.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

And this "super" moon could just be another moon phase. If it goes bang? I hope it's fast as heck!

a reply to: TrueAmerican

How many "Rare" Super moons are we going to have ? Not so rare after all I guess .


The Quake idea could be something considering how much rain California has gotten so quickly .

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Always interested in your threads TA!!

I'll keep a close eye on this thread.

Peace

a reply to: operation mindcrime

Thanks, note the critical edit at the bottom of the OP!

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Has anyone measured the difference in gravitational pull between regular Moons and Super Moons ?

a reply to: Gargoyle91

Springtide...

earthsky.org...

Peace

originally posted by: Gargoyle91
a reply to: TrueAmerican

Has anyone measured the difference in gravitational pull between regular Moons and Super Moons ?

...the variation from minimum lunar pull to maximum pull is roughly 23 percent.

earthsky.org...

If that is true, the extra gravity could possibly induce quakes on faults that were close to the breaking point. That is the theory, anyways. And I don't find it unreasonable, seeing as bigger faults encompass a pretty good size area, and therefore would be subject to such forces noticeably- as opposed to a single human body, which will not notice it at all.

The Moon's gravity causes tides across the globe. It is absolutely plausible that it might affect seismicity on Earth, and that a closer-then-normal approach to Earth might trigger more/bigger earthquakes.

Compared to the size of our planet, the Moon is a really, really big satellite. Most planets have moons that are only a tiny fraction of the planet's mass. I believe only Pluto has a (relatively) bigger moon. Pluto and Charon could actually be considered a double planet.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

There isn't really that much "extra gravity" involved with perigean tides. A perigean tide is generally up to about 2 cm higher than otherwise. The difference between a spring tide (full or new Moon) and a neap tide is much, much greater.

On that topic, there are studies which show some correlation with low level earthquake activity in certain faults and spring tides.

Will there be a tsunami? Flooding? I thought the moon pulled at the oceans....?

a reply to: TrueAmerican

It was orange and bright this morning on my way to work. I wish I had a video camera because the sky was clear but it looked like clouds were moving over the huge moon. It was quite a spectacle to behold...

We have had

November 14, 2016 was the largest on record since January 26, 1948
4 Super Moons in 2017
3 in 2018
This will be the 3rd of 2019 with the one in Feb being the closest .

Kinda interesting that there has been 1 per month this year .

Could it have the "Rock the car to get it unstuck effect" ?

originally posted by: Gargoyle91
a reply to: TrueAmerican

How many "Rare" Super moons are we going to have ? Not so rare after all I guess .


The Quake idea could be something considering how much rain California has gotten so quickly .

Good question.

The answer is 3 this year, and we’ve already had on that was closer than this one on February 19th.

The op has conveniently left that out though, as that would ruin his attempt at doom porn, as there was only 1 significant earthquake in that period, which was a 7.5 near Ecuador.

originally posted by: Chadwickus
Good question.

The answer is 3 this year, and we’ve already had on that was closer than this one on February 19th.

The op has conveniently left that out though, as that would ruin his attempt at doom porn, as there was only 1 significant earthquake in that period, which was a 7.5 near Ecuador.

I haven't done anything of the sort intentionally.... In fact, I haven't even been keeping up with supermoons. I just happened to catch the article posted in the OP. But now that you mentioned it, I did go and check- and the results may surprise you:
Seismicity around the January 21, 2019 supermoon:


Seismicity around the February 19, 2019 supermoon:


Nah, there ain't no red there at all. Must be my old, withering eyes.

a reply to: Chadwickus

Your a man of proven science and facts and statistics. I admire that and almost always agree with you but TA has been looking at earthquake patterns for over 10 years.

Sometimes we discover stuff without knowing the exact principle behind it. Heck, peneciline wasn't worked out on paper before it was discovered either.

There is absolutly no solid data to proof any of this but I respect TA's efforts and maybe instead of wasting energy in debunking this stuff maybe just...you know...ignore it.

5 pages deep into this thread you are going to proof everybody that you are right but I just want to enjoy some earthquake spotting.

Again, nothing but respect for you but this brings no harm to anybody and new discoveries might be around the corner.

Peace

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Nah, there ain't no red there at all. Must be my old, withering eyes.

How's it compare to non-supermoony times? Those numbers don't seem too unusual. It seems hard to find 5 day spans that don't show those kind of counts.

January 8, the moon was at apogee.

5.1 and greater

01/08/2019 09:54:47 5.2 -7.878 106.566 53km SSW of Rancaerang, Indonesia
01/08/2019 10:00:10 5.2 -4.608 -74.006 54km W of Saquena, Peru
01/08/2019 12:39:30 6.3 30.587 131.044 16km SSE of Nishinoomote, Japan
01/08/2019 14:49:01 5.2 -17.672 -174.290 113km NNW of Neiafu, Tonga
01/09/2019 09:39:09 5.1 3.940 95.877 35km SW of Meulaboh, Indonesia
01/10/2019 04:54:20 5.2 -29.948 -176.345 168km ESE of Raoul Island, New Zealand
01/10/2019 17:00:14 5.1 -21.816 168.830 102km ESE of Tadine, New Caledonia
01/10/2019 17:00:37 5.8 -26.906 -175.542 South of Tonga
01/10/2019 17:56:40 5.1 -26.970 -176.336 297km NNE of Raoul Island, New Zealand
01/11/2019 05:58:12 5.3 -21.421 -173.972 101km E of `Ohonua, Tonga
01/11/2019 19:05:29 5.4 -3.393 101.276 118km WNW of Bengkulu, Indonesia
01/12/2019 04:32:02 5.3 39.610 75.711 28km NW of Kashi, China
01/12/2019 06:03:42 5.2 -26.818 -175.846 South of Tonga
01/12/2019 12:04:26 5.1 -6.839 104.186 156km SSW of Kotaagung, Indonesia
01/12/2019 17:13:17 5.3 -5.849 152.225 165km S of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea


Curious, why did you mark some in red and not others?

a reply to: Phage

Those are straight from the EMSC list, filtered at mag 5+... I didn't mark anything. And I looked further too. There does appear to be a slightly higher count of high 5+ to 7+ quakes, in and around the supermoon times. But I have not done exhaustive searches on it.

On another note, Yellowstone just went into a small swarm mode, and now, easing back a bit.

I am not necessarily sold on this idea of supermoons causing excessive quakes. I go where the evidence leads for the most part, but on this the jury is still out. That said, unless we get some bigger quakes in the next few days, this supermoon of March 20,2019 may be one case where it doesn't occur. I don't know. It's just interesting to look, that's all.

Well, thank you for the heads up. I will be vigilant. Such rr moons also tend to get the crazy ones riled up.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Those are straight from the EMSC list, filtered at mag 5+

Got it.

Red : Earthquakes with a magnitude ≥ 5 in Euro-med, or ≥ 6 in the world

That said, unless we get some bigger quakes in the next few days, this supermoon of March 20,2019 may be one case where it doesn't occur.

I think it doesn't happen more often than it does.