A Super Duper Moon Is Coming- Will It Cause Another Mega Quake?

The new term supermoon has become more and more popular over the last couple of years. A supermoon is one that is slightly larger and slightly brighter than our average moons. It’s something most people would not even notice other than the die hard moon fans.

November 2016 will bring us something even bigger! I’m calling it a superdupermoon. The moon will be the closest to the earth that it’s been since January of 1948. During the November 14, 2016 full moon, it will appear 14 percent bigger and 30 brighter than a normal full moon.

The next time the moon will get this close to the earth will be November 25, 2034 so make this one to view! A regular supermoon will also take place on December 14, 2016 so mark your calendar for that as well.

www.enidbuzz.com...

Before the naysayers chime in too hard, of which I am usually one, being skeptical of such things, I want you to consider this article from Live Science, published on March 9, 2011- in which Mr. John Vidale, Director of the PNSN- and a former ATS member (I don't think he posts here anymore) sounds off with such assurance that supermoons won't cause anything to happen:

The moon's gravitational pull at lunar perigee, the scientists say, is not different enough from its pull at other times to significantly change the height of the tides and thus the likelihood of natural disasters. "A lot of studies have been done on this kind of thing by USGS scientists and others," John Bellini, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey, told Life's Little Mysteries. "They haven't found anything significant at all."

Vidale concurred. "Practically speaking, you'll never see any effect of lunar perigee," he said. "It's somewhere between 'It has no effect' and 'It's so small you don't see any effect.'"

The bottom line is, the upcoming supermoon won't cause a preponderance of earthquakes , although the idea isn't a crazy one. "Earthquakes don't respond as much to the tides as you'd think they would. There should actually be more of an effect," said Vidale.

Most natural disasters have nothing to do with the moon at all. The Earth has a lot of pent up energy, and it releases it anytime the buildup gets too great. The supermoon probably won't push it past the tipping point, but we'll know for sure, one way or the other, by March 20.

www.livescience.com...

He even tempts fate by saying we'll know one way or the other by March 20.

Well, it didn't take anywhere near that long before he and all his cohorts were forced to eat some serious crow.

Just two days later, on March 11, 2011, I think we all know what happened. Japan 9+, huge tsunami, etc. etc.

So now the issue is, here we have the closest moon approach in the last 70 years coming up, literally in less than two weeks. CLOSER than it was in 2011, and the closest it will be for many years to come. And it's funny, but I don't see Mr. Vidale out and about anymore carrying the conservative, scientific torch of skepticism anymore.

So it's up to us to be skeptical. And hey, that's cool. I don't necessarily believe it to be true that supermoons can cause megaquakes- BUT consider this article as well:

I know the sample size is extremely small, but look at the "coincidences" here:

On Dec. 31, 2009, there was a SuperMoon. On Jan. 30, 2010, there was an extreme SuperMoon. Guess what happened in between the two? A major earthquake. A 7.0 in Haiti on Jan. 12.

Recently, on Feb. 18, 2011, there was a SuperMoon. On March 19, 2011, an extreme SuperMoon will occur. Guess what happened in between? A major, major earthquake, 8.9 (some people think it may be upgraded to a 9.1) magnitude near the coast of Japan on March 11, 2011. Right between the two!

So we have a SuperMoon, followed by a major earthquake, followed by an extreme SuperMoon. Pretty coincidental? Or is something else going on here?

www.accuweather.com...

The last one happened October 16. Next one, November 14. And now it being November 4, I guess that puts the next week particularly on high alert for a megaquake somewhere. I will also point out that statistically speaking we are pretty overdue for an 8+ somewhere anyway. Last one I think was April 2012 8.6 in the Indian Ocean off Sumatra.

With Cascadia potentially overdue, and the confluence of statistic probability, as well as the closest moon in 70 years, all coming together at once here- I figured that hey, at least it's worth a heads up of all of this on ATS.

Personally I hope nothing will happen. But we shall see.

To be honest, I was a bit confused with all the dates they threw around in the first article. Did I understand correctly that October had the supermoon, November will have this bigger version of a supermoon, and December will also have a supermoon? If that is the case, perhaps a potential earthquake would happen right around November's supermoon, rather than in between October and November (and another one in between November and December)? If I understood correctly, I'm curious which one you think is more likely.

EDIT: I forgot to mention the fact there were two rather big earthquakes in Italy within the last week. Could these not fit the bill that you are proposing?

a reply to: SomethingLingual

Well, I've looked at some quake dates and the dates of supermoons, and it seems (I want to be clear, just SEEMS) that the quakes happen just days before or right after the closest approaches. But I don't think this happens so consistently that it is a reliable pattern. It's one of those "just beware" patterns. It may be nothing, as most scientists will swear- all of them except Mr. Vidale, lol... I think he's had enough crow pie for a while.

As to the Italy quakes, maybe- but I am more talking about 8+'s. 6-7's are happening regularly everywhere.

Gotcha about the 8+'s. Thanks for the clarification. But I still didn't quite understand (your thoughts on) the October/November/December part.

I understand your meaning and caution that it may/may not be a real causation, only correlation. On this note...it seems that historical data could be of use. I mean, supermoons have been recorded, as well as earthquakes, for 50+ years, right? I'm not really sure where to look these things up myself, but seems some adventurous soul *wink wink* could probably do so.

a reply to: SomethingLingual

In the third article in the OP, the author is pointing out that a major quake happened (twice) in between a first, lesser supermoon, and then a second, closer and bigger supermoon. Japan and Haiti. And so it is for that reason, that they fall between the first and second supermoons, that I am raising a potential alert for the next couple of weeks.

I've looked into and compared quake databases and supermoon databases just a bit, so I am not really qualified as of yet to make some kind of definitive conclusion. We could probably use Muzzy's and Puterman's (ATS quake stats experts) help with this- although I think they've looked into this in the past and are pretty sure, like most scientists, that there really isn't any reliable correlation.

But if a major one does happen in the next couple weeks, it should certainly raise some eyebrows.

I know in October the Florida Keys flooded badly every high tide for a week when the super on was full.....and now that Novemebr full moon and Decemebr full moon will bring the same thing....I'm afraid to see how bad November will be .....Ugh ! Our yard was under water .literally..... Had fish swimming around in my yard! .....

originally posted by: Meldionne1
I know in October the Florida Keys flooded badly every high tide for a week when the super on was full.....and now that Novemebr full moon and Decemebr full moon will bring the same thing....I'm afraid to see how bad November will be .....Ugh ! Our yard was under water .literally..... Had fish swimming around in my yard! .....

Tends to happen when you build on a swamp i suppose. I have a feeling Florida isnt long for this world anyway .. Plus mosquitoes..

Noticed this thread through a running Google search. My attitude is the same as it was 5 years ago. Only zero to a tiny effect on risk of quakes during a supermoon.

Coincidently, there was one paper this week, www.nature.com... arguing the biggest quakes might show an effect of big tidal amplitudes. Note this particular study suggests (but does not prove) that the biggest quakes may feel big tides, not big quakes feel the biggest tides - supermoons are by a small amount the biggest tides, and have little to do with the result.

I should note that Haiti and Italy had quakes M7 or less, for which we have robust statistics, and effects of tides are known to be negligible from surveying earthquake catalogs for the past decades. Effects on M8s and M9s are harder to ascertain, as there are much fewer, but nothing obvious is visible.

Also, I would never say nothing will happen. Our strongest statement would be that the risk is no greater than usual. A final note, I and other seismologists have consistently said the same thing for decades now because that is what the data show.

We're in the Keys...the very end of Florida....., we are on Cap rock ,not swamp land, and have the Gulf to our west and the Atlantic in our east side......water on both sides......and ...fun factoid ....we are literally closer to Cuba then any Walmart...the closet Walmart is Florida city area and takes 3 hours driving to get there ....LOL......but yes......mosquitos .....they spray all the time here ....but on topic : we can feel the earth quakes from Cuba . Wondering if this full mon will bring more too?? ..Meldionne1

I don't see how the brightness of the Moon could possibly effect earthquakes on Earth, brightness relates to Light afterall.
What is important in doing this research is Perigee and Apogee, or the distance of the Earth to the Moon, which varies considerably.
Perigee is the point in the orbit of the moon or a satellite at which it is nearest to the earth.
Apogee the point in the orbit of the moon or a satellite at which it is furthest from the earth.
www.fourmilab.ch...

The Dec 12 Perigee is not in fact the 2nd closest, the Apr 7 was next on the closest list
To show the distances and the differences I made the table below.

If you switch the date to 1948 on the fourmilab link above when the last SuperDuperMoon was it likely was on Jan 26 1948
You would have to change each year one by one and see if there was any point closer in the interim period to validate the "biggest in 70 years"
To be honest one SuperMoon/BigQuake coincedence in 70 years just doesn't make a trend
What about the other 54 Mag8's since 1948 that didn't coincide with a Close or Distant Encounter with the Moon?
This is where the Moon=Earthquakes relationship falls down for me. When I did the Moon versus M7+ quakes graphs it was the same result, there were more that didn't coincide than did.
I have been over the "Moon coming in" and "Moon going out" scenerio as well to broaden the scope a bit and there was nothing there either.
It's hard to build a trend or relationship when there isn't one

I am annoyed with the nay-sayers and the general lack of common sense shown whenever this subject comes up.

Let us broaden our outlook just a bit.

Can the moon's gravity affect our oceans? - Yes, we call them tides.

Can the moon's gravity affect magma below the crust? Well, possibly!

Obviously a super moon has a slightly larger effect since it swings in closer.

Before a quake can occur, the stress points need to be almost ready to go!

Then something happens and the stress point lets go. The whole system needed to be under stress to start with.

Therefore: If a location is already under stress, then a super moon may have that little bit more power to be the final straw.

A super moon MAY CAUSE an EQ, if one is just getting ready to go.

Obviously, not all super moons will cause an EQ.

Some will.

The bigger the effect / the more powerful the super moon / the more likely it is to cause an EQ.

Many other stressors cause EQs. Super moons is only one of these.

Stop thinking in absolutes, it does not work in science.

Absolutes only occur in politics and religion.

P

a reply to: pheonix358
Yeah why let some "possiblies" and "maybes" get in the way of "facts"
that is getting into Politics

So 5+'s in Chile all year long in spades, but supermoon's here, bam- 6.4 all of a sudden.

Oh, oops, I'm not supposed to look at it like that. Bad boy, TA, BAD boy.

If a supermoon or superdupermoon were to trigger an earthquake anywhere on Earth right now... I would look to Italy to the environs of Rome stretching to San Marino.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

There has been 2 in Italy recently... maybe a third one but of bigger mag in the area??

Or maybe the big one will hit L.A this year?

Umm, wouldn't the key data point be: was there a superduper earthquake in 1948 during the last superduper moon?

Otherwise why the speculation?

a reply to: TommyD1966
Well yes as it happens
two days before the Perigee of 26th Jan 1948
8.1Mw, 1948/1/24 17:46:40, 10.5, 122, Panay. Philippines.

I wouldn't describe an 8.1 as a SuperDuperQuake, but an 8 is described in the seismic community as a "Major" quake

a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist
and to: Kapriti

There is always that possibility, and the last big one, a M6.5, has not yet produced a M5 aftershock, which would be "normal" for a quake that size. But at the most it might be a M7.5, and more likely a M5.3.
I don't think the Faults in Italy are big enough for an M8.
The largest quake in Italy in the last 1702 years was the M7.4 of 1693 in Sicily.

a reply to: pheonix358

So...
Sometimes a full Moon, super or otherwise, might maybe trigger an earthquake due to the syzygy of Sun and Moon. How very helpful. I guess everyone should move out of Los Angeles for a week twice each month.

Stop thinking in absolutes, it does not work in science.

How about statistics? Do they work in science? If there is not statistical correlation between full Moons and earthquakes, does that work?


The thing is, the lunar and solar influences on tides are always occurring. They are always causing the Earth's crust to flex, on a twice daily basis. Any "triggering" influence could occur at any time during the cycle.

originally posted by: muzzy
Well yes as it happens
two days before the Perigee of 26th Jan 1948
8.1Mw, 1948/1/24 17:46:40, 10.5, 122, Panay. Philippines.

I wouldn't describe an 8.1 as a SuperDuperQuake, but an 8 is described in the seismic community as a "Major" quake.

Ok wait. So what you're saying is the last time the moon got this close there WAS a big quake within days of perigee, as I suspected in the OP... Don't confuse me with the facts, muzzy! My mind was already made up that supermoons don't elevate risk of big quakes!

And by the way, an 8.1 is indeed a "great" quake, not a "major" quake:
Earthquake Magnitude Classes

Earthquakes are also classified in categories ranging from minor to great, depending on their magnitude.
Class- Magnitude
Great- 8 or more
Major- 7 - 7.9
Strong- 6 - 6.9
Moderate- 5 - 5.9
Light- 4 - 4.9
Minor- 3 -3.9

www.geo.mtu.edu...

I've been watching Chile like a hawk all this year, and that's why I made the comment above. That 6.4 is out of character for the current seismicity- but not out of character, of course, for the area. Which really makes me wonder now if we should be looking at existing seismicity characteristics before supermoons vs. when they get near- on a much broader scope. Perhaps there is an elevated risk, but we haven't found it yet.