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Airbus just changed the global aircraft market

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posted on Oct, 17 2017 @ 04:44 PM
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I get rooting for the home team, but this was a fully deserved own goal by Boeing.

Am I right in thinking they could have pulled off this same deal, but they didn't want to write off the Max7?




posted on Oct, 17 2017 @ 04:48 PM
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a reply to: Northernhollow

Probably. They've been screwing up by the numbers in recent years though. They've been resting on the 737 being the most popular commercial aircraft built, and the Max 10 being able to fill the 757 market (it can't), so they've delayed NMA. At this point Airbus will have 5-8 years minimum of the A321neo, which will be a direct competitor, in service before NMA will even fly.



posted on Oct, 17 2017 @ 06:56 PM
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Move, counter move, just pieces on the chessboard. As I said in the other thread about Boeing buying Aurora, there is going to be another wave of consolidation coming.

First off, the tariff situation is unchanged in the short term. Until Airbus starts producing the C series in a US plant.

I do agree that Boeing has nothing to offer in the 100 seat plus, but the 737MAX-7 is 138 seats and is NOT selling. (I don't know the specific cost per seat mile comparing the comparable Cs aircraft and the MAX/NEO). However, it may be appealing for Airlines that are looking at a broad range of aircraft.

Boeing will no doubt make moves of its own. Embraer is a possibility etc.

This deal was less about going toe to toe with Boeing as it was about keeping Bombardier out of Chinese hands. While Airbus and Boeing like to go at each other like cats and dogs, it clear that the real threat to their duopoly will come from China.



posted on Oct, 17 2017 @ 07:36 PM
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Boeing holds all the records still....

the first ones to put a supersize heavy in the air.....747......and circled a city for all to see that thing hangin in air turnin lookin like it was going 50 miles an hour.....a sight...mine was that orange Braniff going dfw to hawaii....I was fresh outta flight school at mountainview junior college..( had a Piper Apache in the hallways ).....the golden era
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posted on Oct, 17 2017 @ 08:08 PM
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a reply to: FredT

The tariff situation is dead. It won't matter if they're produced in the US or in Canada. Once the deal is finalized, the CSeries becomes an Airbus product. By treaty the US can't tariff Airbus products.

Even if Boeing partners with Embraer, they won't come close to matching this deal. There is a lot of interest in the CSeries, but customers have been bel wary because of Bombardier's situation.



posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 02:54 AM
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The A330 neo is just about to have its first flight they're streaming it live on their twitter feed as we speak just about to take off
edit on 19-10-2017 by Woody510 because: (no reason given)

I must say it's a really nice looking plane.
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posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 02:07 PM
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a reply to: Woody510

Part of me thinks it's a little hilarious that Boeing re-engined their legacy tin tube 777 to compete with Airbus's all-new composite A350, and now Airbus is re-engining the ancient A330 to compete with the all-new composite 787.

Am I a bad person though if part of me hopes that Boeing decides to counter this by dusting off the fuselage tubes of the 737-100 and the -200. I'd reckon that the Max 7 isn't selling because it's too small for airlines that want a 737 or A320, and too big for airlines that want an E-Jet or a CSeries.
It's the 747SP all over again. Now, build a 100-115 seat "Max 5" or "Max 6" and you might get some nibbles if the fuel burn was good enough. Mated to the right wing/engines and at the right price, something along those lines could be a perfect E190/CSeries killer.

That, or hell freezing over and Boeing dusting the cobwebs off of Long Beach and firing up the 717 lines for a GTF-engined 717 Max.
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posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 02:27 PM
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a reply to: Barnalby


The 717 is a fairly nice aircraft for it's size, if it's timeline were moved up 10 years I think it might have still been in production.



posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 03:57 PM
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a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

The 717 fits into what's essentially a flooded niche. Boeing didn't want to do much with it, because it was close to the 737-600, then the E-Jet, and improved CRJs hit the market and their metrics were slightly better.



posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 03:58 PM
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a reply to: Zaphod58


They're going to have to do something, either develop (long lead cycle) or acquire.

The last big blunder was on Airbus with the 380, now it's Boeing's turn.



posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 04:08 PM
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a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Boeing decided years ago that their baby was the 737, come hell or high water. They've delayed development of the NMA to develop and market the Max. At this point, unless the NMA is more ground breaking than the 787, Boeing will be more or less locked in to playing catch up until at least the next major release.

It actually started with the Max. Airlines looked at the numbers and saw another 737NG. Airbus was offering new technologies, and better metrics, while Boeing was offering a really really long 737. If they had started the NMA three years ago, they could take back the market. But they've waited too long, and are giving Airbus years with the A321 being the only aircraft on the market that truly fits those routes.



posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 04:12 PM
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a reply to: Zaphod58


I don't disagree, which is why I think they may go the MNA route. One merger usually spurs another.



posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 04:25 PM
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a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

The problem is that there is no one competitive that they can try to partner with. The only ones that might get close are Embraer with the E2-Jet, and Mitsubishi with the MRJ. And both of those are subject to the Scope Clause, which is going to limit their sales ability.



posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 04:28 PM
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originally posted by: Zaphod58
The problem is that there is no one competitive that they can try to partner with. The only ones that might get close are Embraer with the E2-Jet, and Mitsubishi with the MRJ. And both of those are subject to the Scope Clause, which is going to limit their sales ability.


I was thinking EMB was the better target. As for Scopes it can be modified, not easily of course, but the possibility exists.



posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 04:47 PM
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a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Yes, the possibility does, but the chance of it actually happening are slim to none. I'll be shocked if it does. Even if it does though, the Embraer offerings are simply the 737 on a smaller scale. The E2 family is just the E-Jet with some changes. I don't see it ever being a true competitor to the CSeries, especially with Airbus behind it.



posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 05:05 PM
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originally posted by: Zaphod58
...the Embraer offerings are simply the 737 on a smaller scale.


Which is kind of why I think it may be a good fit for Boeing. I think if they stand by and do nothing, no new airframe or acquisition into that space, that they are in deep trouble.

The only 'new' aircraft worth discussing are the 773s, 787-10 and the MOM that is still who knows how far out.



posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 05:14 PM
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a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

MOM is NMA. It will be officially launched either by the end of the year or early next year.

The problem with a Boeing-Embraer team up on the E2 is that I don't think the E2 is going to sell well, even with Boeing backing. I'm willing to bet that most sales will go to current users of the E-Jets.



posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 05:17 PM
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originally posted by: Zaphod58
It will be officially launched either by the end of the year or early next year.


Well that's good news, I was expecting it to still be a couple of years out.


The problem with a Boeing-Embraer team up on the E2 is that I don't think the E2 is going to sell well, even with Boeing backing. I'm willing to bet that most sales will go to current users of the E-Jets.


The alternative then is ceding that space solely to a competitor which I think is a bad business move, not only for Boeing but for the customer. Who will innovate when there is no competition?



posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 06:16 PM
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a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

They've already conceded the short to short-medium market though. The CSeries is in the 100-150 seat market. When Delta put out their RFP that resulted in them buying the CSeries, Boeing offered them Embraer E190s that would be refurbished.

That's why the Boeing complaint about Bombardier dumping aircraft in the Delta sale don't make sense. They're claiming the sale hurt the 737, but they don't have a 737 that is even close to the CSeries market.



posted on Oct, 19 2017 @ 06:52 PM
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a reply to: Zaphod58

Also, remember that every E-jet customer under the sun has major concerns about their reliability. There is a really significant possibility that the GTF-equipped MRJ ends up replacing the E-175's niche in the regionals if Skywest sees good fuel burn/MTBF numbers on them, with the the CSeries replacing the E-190s in service with the majors if it does good things under Delta. For instance, with Airbus now behind them, I'd be shocked if JetBlue doesn't end up replacing their E-Jet fleet with CSeries units rather than E2s.

As to what Boeing does, they either choose to wade into this market with an expensive, difficult acquisition to compete in a relatively low-margin segment of the industry, they choose to enter that segment themselves with a warmed-over 737-100/200 or 717 descendant, or they abandon an entire new segment to Airbus and let it go uncontested. Unlike the super-heavy segment and the 747/A380, this segment actually has the potential to move thousands of units.




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