Airbus just changed the global aircraft market

a reply to: Barnalby

Also JetBlue and either Skywest or Spirit went against Boeing WRT the Bombardier dispute. Even though both are Airbus customers, that could potentially be pretty big news in the long term.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
They've already conceded the short to short-medium market though. The CSeries is in the 100-150 seat market. When Delta put out their RFP that resulted in them buying the CSeries, Boeing offered them Embraer E190s that would be refurbished.

They could always feed them to their constant United States buyer, United, who has tons of Boeings and plenty of EMBs.

Honestly, not sure what Boeing can do but I think do nothing is not an option.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Spirit could absolutely jump to the CSeries as a growing carrier, esp if its fuel burn numbers meet or beat the A320NEO.

Skywest, OTOH is already looking for a waiver with the unions to fly the MRJ85, which means that the CS100 could be a real option for them as well if they get permission to fly something that big.

a reply to: Zaphod58

I'm sure you caught it, Boeing is potentially looking to produce 50-100 767s for United which means MOM could end being delivered in the later 2020's and that they want to upgauge some of the domestic fleet. Fascinating if true.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Won't happen. The only 767 being built is the KC-46. That's another one that's proving fun. The 787 is a little too much aircraft to replace the 767. United bought the -9, supposedly to replace some of their 767s, and has used them to expand instead. They don't know what they're going to freplace the 76 with yet but are looking at all options.

a reply to: Zaphod58


United is being very coy, no commenting this, so who knows. It makes sense in some ways and doesn't in others. The major positive is that everyone in their mother wants 76's for cargo so the aftermarket residual would still be there.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Huh. It theoretically could happen. Looks like FedEx bumped the line with a freighter order. It probably won't happen though. There are better seat metrics out there that make more sense.

a reply to: Zaphod58


From what I'm reading the 76's, while not as efficient as some of the newer planes, would be a stepping stone to the MOM. They would come delivered with the Polaris seating and be used for TATL and domestic volume routes. They also fit into every airport unlike some of the newer aircraft and it's also very comfortable, United cannot cram 3-4-3 into it like the 773's.

I'd give it less than 50/50 but it does make sense in some regards.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

The problem is that they'd put them into service less than five years before NMA. The majority of the 767 line is tied up with the Pegasus, as it should be. The FedEx order won't be completed until 2020-2022. They're trying for 2025ish for NMA. United would probably get their first 767 in 2021 or so.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
The problem is that they'd put them into service less than five years before NMA. The majority of the 767 line is tied up with the Pegasus, as it should be. The FedEx order won't be completed until 2020-2022. They're trying for 2025ish for NMA. United would probably get their first 767 in 2021 or so.

From what I'm reading on the air forums many are thinking the 797 wont show up until 2028-2029. Now there are rumors that Delta may even be interested. Who knows.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

That would still have them flying almost brand new 767s when it was time to buy something new. They're more likely to go with either A350-900s or 787s. If they do, they can slot their NMA aircraft onto the same routes and move them into other routes and replace older aircraft.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
They're more likely to go with either A350-900s or 787s.

United already changed their 350 order but many feel they may defer these again. I think they want them for the heavy domestic routes and for TATL where the 350 and 787 are just too much aircraft. As I said, it's all just rumor right now but Boeing leaked this potential order and United gave a 'no comment' when asked if they were the prospective buyer. Why not just say 'no' if you planned on going straight to the 797.

Personally I like the 767, it's roomy, the new Polaris first is killer and no one can cram more than the 7 across in economy that they currently have without major issues.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Because they haven't decided yet to go through with it and you don't want other airlines to know what you're doing. I've seen orders not confirmed until the aircraft was in final assembly. Everyone knew who they were for but they tried to keep it from other airlines as long as possible.

Part of me wouldn't be surprised if they do. Just one more stupid decision by the United leadership.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
Because they haven't decided yet to go through with it...

Which was kind of my original point, they seem to be toying with the idea and it could be big news for Boeing if it manifests.

If they can pick them up at a deep discount, say $40-50million, and then dump them off on the cargo market 10 years after purchase I think they actually got a good bargain.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

I realize that was your point, but if they do, it would be one of the dumbest decisions I've ever seen them make. Even getting them at a big discount, they're going to have to replace them far before they are even close to the end of their life. They'd basically be paying twice for new aircraft to get one new one.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
I realize that was your point, but if they do, it would be one of the dumbest decisions I've ever seen them make. Even getting them at a big discount, they're going to have to replace them far before they are even close to the end of their life. They'd basically be paying twice for new aircraft to get one new one.

It's United, Zaphod, they're gonna do what they want to do and if you don't like it, tough, you're gonna get dragged off.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Yeah, I realised afterwards that saying United was going to do something really # dumb is redundant.

a reply to: Zaphod58


It'll be interesting either way. Their 76's and 75's are getting creaky, they need something to take their place for both domestic and international routes where the 77's and 78's, and soon the 350's, are just too much plane.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

I think the 788 is going to turn out to be a pretty good mid range aircraft. Not good enough for them to kill NMA, but far better than people expect it to be.

a reply to: Zaphod58


I would take it over a 76 or 75 any day, I really like the 78 family, it's probably my favorite although the Polaris 77 is right there.