Russian military plane disappears from radar after takeoff near Sochi

a reply to: Zaphod58

Are you being sarcastic?

a reply to: Davg80

Yes.

There are reports that a man near the coast, where the aircraft came down, was injured by falling debris, suggesting at at least part of the aircraft separated in flight.

The pilot was pilot 1st rank Roman Volkov. He had more than 3,000 hours flight time, and the crew on this aircraft had flown to Syria several times, in this particular aircraft, escorting fighter aircraft to the Russian base there.

Just a few updates, that most if not all of you know:

Both from links provided in the OP;
CNN:

The plane was manufactured in 1983 and had 6,689 hours of flight. "The last repair was on December 29, 2014, and in September 2016 it underwent scheduled maintenance," the ministry said, according to Tass.
The ministry identified the pilot as Roman Volkov, who it said was a "class 1 pilot" with more than 3,000 flying hours..

and;

The Russian Investigation Committee has launched a routine criminal investigation to examine potential "violation of rules of flight safety or preparation," committee spokesperson Svetlana Petrenko told Tass. The committee plans to seize documents and interrogate those who prepared the plane for flight, she added.

BBC;

An audio recording played on Russian media and said to be of the final conversation between air traffic controllers and the plane reveals no sign of any difficulties being faced by the crew.

Voices remain calm until the plane disappears and the controllers try in vain to re-establish contact.

Reports from the area said flying conditions were favorable.

The Criminal Investigation I think is pretty standard for these types of things (though I may be wrong). One thing I did notice was that the BBC report is quietly pushing a nefarious narrative on this. Using quiet terms like:
(Quoted from BBC source)

Russia's transport minister says investigators are looking into an "entire spectrum'' of possible reasons the crash occurred, including the possibility of a terror attack.
Earlier, a Russian official had downplayed any suggestion of a terror attack

Russia has been carrying out air strikes in support of Syrian government forces who are battling rebels opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

A Tu-154, operated by Siberian Airlines, was shot down over the Black Sea in October 2001, killing 78 people.
The plane was travelling from Tel Aviv in Israel to Novosibirsk in Russia, and most of the passengers were Israeli.

The Ukrainian military initially denied involvement but officials later admitted the plane could have been hit accidentally during a training exercise..

To me it seems like this may be pointing in a different direction then just a crash, or mechanical issue. Though it may just be sensational report on the BBCs part. I didn't find anything stating how large of an area is being searched, only reports talking about the depths of the wreckage in the black sea. The other issue I saw was that the Plane took a U-Turn before going off radar. If that's true then wouldn't that disqualify the reports that everything was ok? I'm guessing the blackbox data would have to be made public to clear that up, and I'm pretty sure the Russians aren't going to do that. So for now I guess it's a "wait and see" thing.

Sorry? From RT:LINKY HERE

Around 3,000 people are involved in a search and rescue operation in the 10.5 square kilometer area, the defense ministry announced. The 24/7 operation is being conducted by 32 vessels with over 100 divers on board, unmanned flying vehicles, and five helicopters, officials announced. Head of the Russian Transport Ministry Maksim Sokolov said that so far the rescue workers have found no survivors from the Tu-154 crash

So I guess the search area is 10.5 kilometers.
Also important to note:

Meanwhile, officials are not considering a terrorist act to have been the prime cause of the incident, a security source told Interfax. It added that the crashed plane was initially supposed to refuel in the city of Mozdok, North Ossetia, but due to bad weather redirected to the airport at the Black Sea coast resort of Adler.
"So, no one knew beforehand that the plane will make a stopover" in Adler, the source said. After landing the aircraft was guarded until it departed for Syria.

So RT is saying that the weather wasn't as "favorable" as earlier reports have said.

a reply to: Guyfriday

They may have suffered an electrical failure.

The aircraft was a Tu-154B, registration RA-85572. According to the Defense Ministry, it appears they were attempting to return to the airport at the time of the crash. They departed at 0525, but didn't climb, before turning right over the Black Sea.

originally posted by: Zaphod58
There are reports that a man near the coast, where the aircraft came down, was injured by falling debris, suggesting at at least part of the aircraft separated in flight.

The pilot was pilot 1st rank Roman Volkov. He had more than 3,000 hours flight time, and the crew on this aircraft had flown to Syria several times, in this particular aircraft, escorting fighter aircraft to the Russian base there.

could a birdstrike make parts fall off

a reply to: Zaphod58

Could be either. Like I said though it is a "wait and see" thing. Out of curiosity what data would a Black Box tell us about this type of event? I mean if we had access to it.

Makes me wonder if they were going for a "miracle on the Hudson" landing?

a reply to: haven123

Yes and no. It would damage the fan blades, which could then go through the engine and out the exhaust, falling off the aircraft that way. If the Twitter video is right, it looks like one engine may have suffered catastrophic damage, either through a mechanical failure, or a bird strike.

a reply to: Guyfriday

It depends on the type of recorder that's on the aircraft. Being built in the 80s, this one probably has a mechanical type recorder, instead of the newer digital recorders. That will give quite a bit of information, from engine operation, airspeed, altitude, flight control movement, etc. It could record anywhere up to a couple of hundred channels of information.

The aircraft definitely at least partially broke up in flight. The debris field covers something like 9 miles, meaning they were at a relatively high altitude when it broke up, instead of breaking up at low altitude or at impact. The question is what debris was found where in the debris field. It could be that one of the engines was found in one spot, and the rest of the aircraft found largely intact. Or lighter debris was found scattered around the area.

Yelizaveta Glinka, known as Doctor Liza was on board the aircraft. She works for the charity Just Help, and was accompanying medical supplies to Syria, and planned to help evacuate children from the area.

This is getting stranger. The way things were worded before, the aircraft exploded, and there was nothing left except a large debris field. Now they're saying that they believe most of the bodies are in the fuselage, suggesting only a partial break up in flight. Obviously there has to be a fuselage left for the bodies to be trapped in.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Hum maybe that the big deal with stating the depth of the water in the area where it went down. Though? did the wings pop off or something.

a reply to: Guyfriday

If they had catastrophic engine failure, like United 232, they could have shed bits of aircraft, lost flight control systems and gone out of control. They'd leave debris below them over the area they flew, but come down with an intact fuselage.

a reply to: Zaphod58
Wasn't that a DC-10? Same 3 engine design?

Now I have to go look at that info...

OK so I looked up some info on the 232 crash, and interesting enough. even though it was a land crash there were survivors. Since this was over water it would be possible for some survivors too. Hopefully some are found.

a reply to: Guyfriday

Yes it was, but different design. The closest Western design is the Boeing 727. The tail engine on United 232 shattered, throwing debris through the side of the engine, damaging all three hydraulic systems and causing flight control problems.

a reply to: Zaphod58
Ok just watched a couple archival videos on that crash. It's amazing that the airframe design allowed for people to survive, so I guess it's going to come down to;

Is the Russian design as durable in structure as the DC-10? And did it have a similar engine failure?

Terrorism is being largely ruled out. The aircraft was originally scheduled to land at Mazdok, North Ossetia, but diverted to Adler in flight due to weather there. There was no prior notice that the aircraft was landing there until just before it landed.

a reply to: opethPA

Having thought about it I realise the Shoreham incident was about human character. Zaphod knows a million aircraft related facts that I will never know. Perhaps I know more about human character.

Symbolism is worth considering. Christmas, the choir, and the humanitarian superstar. That's enough to raise more questions than if it was a common, routine flight.

a reply to: Kester

This week in Australia we had a guy blow up a car full of gas cylinders at a Christian organisation office and a terror attack was foiled that was to of occurred in a Cathedral at midnight mass,but according to authorities religion wasn't a factor if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck its now a chicken,as for this plane the model in question doesn't have a good track record but you have a point.