What are the odds of other intelligent life in the universe? (pretty darn good)

a reply to: ImaFungi
I've stated my guess.

And while there is likely to be other intelligent life somewhere else in the universe ... so what?

I don't see that it matters a whole to us right now. It clearly isn't in the range of what we can see currently, so there doesn't seem to be any chance of us contacting it. "Intelligent life" spans a broad range from hyper-advanced alien civilizations all the way down to aboriginal civilizations that barely know how to bang two rocks together to produce fire. Se we aren't even sure what we ought to be looking for.

And we have no real idea how common it is. For all we know, it's all on the other side of the galaxy, so it will never really matter.

a reply to: ketsuko

For all we know, it's all on the other side of the galaxy, so it will never really matter.

Well, an unequivocal indication would send some Christian fundamentalists scrambling but other than that, and the coolness factor, you're right.

a reply to: ketsuko

I think there is extreme significance, I certainly presume there are tons of intelligent life throughout the universe.

Think about how any life forms on this earth right now are doing their own things living their own lives... and now carry that out to other planets. Right now... its really all happening, and has been. How many cultures, and histories, and triumphs, and wars, and breakthroughs, and arts etc. Its quite beautiful. Also it can put some people in their places, to imagine there are beings that are many multiple times more strong and intelligent than them. This is the mindset I have had for some time anyway, because I think it is so likely the universe is full of intelligent life.

You're right, I guess it could've popped up all over the universe at the same time.

But here's what gets me... why did it only happen here once? Why is there only one tree of life?

a reply to: Phage

What would it take to make prediction about the odds of likelihood of intelligent life?

The number would not intimately relate to the 10 billion trillion figure?

it could not be 10 billion trillion itself?

Could presume lesser or greater odds?

a reply to: Bone75

You're right, I guess it could've popped up all over the universe at the same time.

That's not as likely as it evolving at a wide variety of times. The Universe is old. Really, really old.

But here's what gets me... why did it only happen here once? Why is there only one tree of life?

Because, once life starts, there it is. Intelligent life? Were Devisonians and Neanderthals not intelligent?

a reply to: ImaFungi

What would it take to make prediction about the odds of likelihood of intelligent life?

Values for variables which we are unable to provide.

Could presume lesser or greater odds?

No.

originally posted by: ImaFungi
a reply to: Phage

It actually gives me more complement to believe in God

Groovy.

originally posted by: ImaFungi
a reply to: Phage

What would it take to make prediction about the odds of likelihood of intelligent life?

The problem is not only the zillions of stars issue, but also the 4.5 billion year age of the Universe issue. I don't know what denominator you could safely use, i.e.: How long does a civilization typically last? but whichever it's one times the other. And if a zillion stars is an issue, that times 4.5 billion years is even more of one. The problem is, we don't have the data. Even if we play around with Drake Equations, we're still flying completely blind on this. We've only got one data element we're sure about. And you can't perform valid statistical analyses with one data element.

a reply to: Phage

Is it possible for odds to two opposing things be equal?

Can the odds of there not being intelligent life throughout = 1 in 10 billion trillion

And the odds for there being intelligent life throughout = 1 in 10 billion trillion


And does all this conclude that stating odds are entirely irrelevant?

99.99999999% might as well be 0% and/or 100% from a perspective of ignorance?

And thats another point... it is odds, and not a percent... so here is no reference frame, upper bound?

Well... I dont know; I believe the odds are based on science, and inference, so I think that is relevant. Knowing the conditions for intelligent life here, and observing the potentials for similar conditions in relation to the size and age of the universe, those are variables and bounds.. so I think it could be turned into a percentage.

a reply to: ImaFungi

So you believe that it's there and that's enough to impact your life?

Funny, that's quite how I feel about God.

The point though is that OK, there is likely to be intelligent life out there somewhere. The odds favor it. But at our current level of ability to explore the universe around us, it does us no good at all. We can neither see nor interact of our own volition with any intelligent life at any level. So all we can do is believe it's there ... somewhere. And given the size of our universe, practically speaking, that may be all we can ever do - believe that it's there.

I would prefer we spend our time looking for an figuring out how to explore planets near near us that might barely be habitable for us, and look for life of any level while we're at it.

Simply finding any life, anywhere would be a powerful argument for life at every level of the chain since we would then know of life in more than just our own home location.

a reply to: ImaFungi

Is it possible for odds to two opposing things be equal?

Yes. The odds of getting heads or tails are equal.

Can the odds of there not being intelligent life throughout = 1 in 10 billion trillion

And the odds for there being intelligent life throughout = 1 in 10 billion trillion

It's really not possible to accurately calculate the odds of either.

And does all this conclude that stating odds are entirely irrelevant?

In this case, yes. Because there is no actual basis for those calculations. (see above)

a reply to: 727Sky

Actually, if we look at our own planet, we can see that an alpha predator arose and killed off all other meaningful threats.

I don't have any math to back this up, but it seems likely that most planets with advanced life
would have an apex predator like us.

If even ONE of those apex predators became fairly advanced and took to the stars AND if they were xenophobes (we are xenophobes really),

Then logically If even ONE such species developed,
(we might become this species); then even IF life had been plentiful at some point, all it might take is one such asshole species to kill and destroy the majority of advanced life throughout the Universe.
Perhaps using self-replicating killing probes.

Those raw odds of life mean almost ZERO.

Kev

a reply to: ketsuko

I suggested there are psychological, spiritual, social, emotional benefits, of considering the grand likely hood the universe is full of intelligent life.

originally posted by: KellyPrettyBear
a reply to: 727Sky

Actually, if we look at our own planet, we can see that an alpha predator arose and killed off all other meaningful threats.

I don't have any math to back this up, but it seems likely that most planets would have an apex predator like us.

If even ONE of those apex predators became fairly advanced and took to the stars AND if they were xenophobes (we are xenophobes really),

Then logically If even ONE such species developed,
(we might become this species); then even IF life had been plentiful at some point, all it might take is one such asshole species to kill and destroy the majority of advanced life throughout the Universe.
Perhaps using self-replicating killing probes.

Those raw odds of life mean almost ZERO.

Kev

Yes, but there is the Ying to that Yang of humanity; the ones who are peaceful, who traveled the earth and documented the natural creations; the star trek types.

a reply to: ImaFungi

And I didn't disagree.

originally posted by: Phage
The article does not discuss the odds in favor of intelligent life, actually. It's more about the odds against it.

I think that it's very likely that intelligent life has, at one time or another, evolved elsewhere. Even right here in our own Galaxy.

...Love your work. How do I join your Phan club?

Surprising that this topic is still discussed with such "vigor", thru threads like this one.

In the past week, there was a thread regarding UFO sighting etc from a magazine article from 1977/78.
In that article was a quote from one of the Doyens of Astronomy/Astro physics of our time....the great Carl Sagan.
Without using the direct quote (look up the thread yourselves), he basically said words to the effect of..." There must be at Least 1 Million planets, just in our own Galaxy, that probably harbour intelligent life".

And this was 40 years ago.

Yes, we supposedly haven't found any hard evidence (less the UFO speculation), but the premise that "We" are Not the only intelligent life in our Galaxy or Universe, is fairly much recognised in scientific circles, even if not generally openly discussed, one would think?

a reply to: ImaFungi

Its possible that we were visited before the apex predator killed them, yes.