It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

What are the odds of other intelligent life in the universe? (pretty darn good)

page: 1
5
<<   2  3  4 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 04:49 PM
link   
Well it looks like main stream science has taken on step closer to playing the odds of life in our universe. Many of us have, 'no doubt' that life exist and is sprinkled throughout this universe... But it is always nice to see science trying to validate our beliefs. Now it would appear even science is accepting, "They are out there" or am I reading to much into the odds..... did they science miscount on the low side about there being 20 billion trillion stars.... with those numbers what are a few million here and there ?
www.cbsnews.com...


What are the odds that intelligent life evolved on Earth and nowhere else among the 20 billion trillion stars in the observable universe across 13.8 billion years of cosmic history?

About one in 10 billion trillion, according to researchers writing in the journal Astrobiology -- meaning it's very, very unlikely humanity is unique across the sweep of cosmic space and time.

Put another way, even if life evolves on only one planet in a billion orbiting in the habitable zone of its star -- the region where water can exist as a liquid and life as it's known on Earth could, in theory, evolve -- "that still means it's happened on the order of 10 trillion times," said Adam Frank, an astronomer at the University of Rochester.

Armed with data from NASA's Kepler space telescope showing planets are commonplace, Frank and Woodruff Sullivan, an astronomer at the University of Washington, decided to take a fresh look at the Drake equation, developed in 1961 by astrophysicist Frank Drake as a way of making a rough estimate of how common technological civilizations might be across the Milky Way galaxy.




posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 04:55 PM
link   
The article does not discuss the odds in favor of intelligent life, actually. It's more about the odds against it.

I think that it's very likely that intelligent life has, at one time or another, evolved elsewhere. Even right here in our own Galaxy.



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:01 PM
link   
Yes, we've found lots of planets in our vicinty through Kepler, but how many of those have been shown to be potentially hospitable to life of any complexity?

So I guess wouldn't you need to calculate the potential number of planets based on what we're discovering, then the potential number of those planets that could theoretically support life based on the same, and then extrapolate out, and of course, the only planet in our immediate area known to harbor intelligent life is our own.

And when it comes right down to it, we have no way of knowing what our tiny little segment of the galaxy is like: feast or famine when it comes to planets and their compositions. Are we typical? Are we a desert or even the equivalent of the local rainforest in terms of planet diversity?

And planet commonality aside, can we say the same about potential biodiversity? Planets may be less dense in number but more likely to harbor life in other areas for example.

We just don't know based on our tiny little corner.



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:03 PM
link   
a reply to: 727Sky

When you sit and think about it there has to be something, The odds of us just being the only advanced race in this universe are pretty low.
Unfortunately i doubt that anyone in a high ranking government position or in NASA are ever going to stand up and admit it, and show us a bit of proof. I honestly think that something is going on with the moon apparently photos have been photo shopped by NASA. Not to mention all the strange conversation between the astronauts and NASA ground control on the first moon landing.
I had a brilliant youtube video about it all... i'll post it when i find the link.



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:05 PM
link   

originally posted by: Phage
The article does not discuss the odds in favor of intelligent life, actually. It's more about the odds against it.

I think that it's very likely that intelligent life has, at one time or another, evolved elsewhere. Even right here in our own Galaxy.


I suppose my reading comprehension is pretty bad at 4am ? For from what I got from the article was totally opposite of what you seemed to come away with.



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:08 PM
link   
a reply to: 727Sky
Your quote:

What are the odds that intelligent life evolved on Earth and nowhere else among the 20 billion trillion stars in the observable universe across 13.8 billion years of cosmic history?

edit on 4/29/2016 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:15 PM
link   
a reply to: Phage

From that quote alone I'm going to have to back up 727Sky. But honestly I'm a little sleep deprived myself and I did not read the article, however it seems to me that the attitude behind that question points out the ridiculousness of life only evolving on one planet among 20 billion trillion stars over billions of years and shares your very sentiment.

Is this a prank?



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:19 PM
link   
a reply to: geezlouise
No.
The premise is not that it is likely that intelligent life evolved elsewhere, it is that it is unlikely that it did not.

But the thing is, unlikely things can and do happen.
www.huffingtonpost.com...

The odds tell us that, however unlikely it is, it is possible that we are the only place with intelligent life. I don't think it's the case, but it is possible.

edit on 4/29/2016 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:24 PM
link   
lol, I just finished reading the article in the OP.


originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: geezlouise
But the thing is, unlikely things can and do happen.


Yep, I agree.
edit on 29-4-2016 by geezlouise because: sleep deprived



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:26 PM
link   

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: geezlouise

The odds tell us that, however unlikely it is, it is possible that we are the only place with intelligent life. I don't think it's the case, but it is possible.


Well it has to start somewhere doesn't it?



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:27 PM
link   
a reply to: Bone75
You mean somewhere in particular?
Why?



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:29 PM
link   

originally posted by: Neekoboo2000
I honestly think that something is going on with the moon apparently photos have been photo shopped by NASA. Not to mention all the strange conversation between the astronauts and NASA ground control on the first moon landing.
I had a brilliant youtube video about it all... i'll post it when i find the link.

No need. It's probably been posted before, and even if the exact video hasn't, I assure you the points in it have already been raised (and thoroughly debunked as the ignorant garbage they are) here on ATS in the past.



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:44 PM
link   

edit on 29-4-2016 by ImaFungi because: so excited at the prospect of proving Phage wrong, that I was wrong



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:45 PM
link   
a reply to: ImaFungi
Yes. I know.
That's what I said. It is unlikely that intelligent life did not evolve elsewhere.



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:47 PM
link   

edit on 29-4-2016 by ImaFungi because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:48 PM
link   
a reply to: ImaFungi

Yes.

And?
edit on 4/29/2016 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:49 PM
link   
a reply to: Phage

Oh, I see....


Well if there are two options; and it must be 1 or the other is true. And 1 is astronomically unlikely, that supports credence of the other being astronomically likely.



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:50 PM
link   
a reply to: ImaFungi




And 1 is astronomically unlikely, that supports credence of the other being astronomically likely.

That is not a logical conclusion. That is not how odds and probabilities work.


edit on 4/29/2016 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:52 PM
link   
This Straw Man argument crops up on a regular basis. The usual refrain is, "It's unreasonable to think there is not intelligent life elsewhere in the universe, and it's just stupid to think otherwise."

My usual question there is, "Who, specifically (excepting some delusional fundamentalists), has ever said that?" Personally, I can safely say that no one of my acquaintance has ever expressed such a sentiment and, when the question has come up, has always suggested there probably is.

So if you leave it right there, where's the beef? The argument becomes a statistical one that hedges on the answer to how ubiquitous life is. If we can find it nearly everywhere there is an appropriate planet, the odds go up. Now that we've found quite a few planets, the odds go up.

However, given what we think we know about the age of the Universe and how large it is, the odds of contemporaneous intelligent life capable of interstellar travel are a WHOLE LOT LESS than just the possibility of life elsewhere in the universe. And even if there is, that begs the question. Given what we think we know about the length of interstellar travel, how are they going to get here? And why would they? the fact is, there is only one planet with life on it in this solar system and at least so far, we can't get out, possible microbes on Mars or Titan notwithstanding. The question is moot.

Anything else is speculation, including cities on the Moon or interdimensional UFOs in our skies. The Universe would have to be much different than we think it is to allow this kind of stuff to take place, including warp drives, travel to other universes, etc. It's science fiction at best. Maybe we will get there, but we aren't there now.



posted on Apr, 29 2016 @ 05:53 PM
link   
a reply to: Phage

Ok I see what you mean now, because the figure is 10 billion trillion ;

And it could be

10 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion... toward infinity

So its not like if I say: I have a ball in 1 of my hands, left or right, and there is 1 in 10 billion trillion chances it is not in my left hand;

Does the power of inference sway you to make a guess?
edit on 29-4-2016 by ImaFungi because: (no reason given)



new topics

top topics



 
5
<<   2  3  4 >>

log in

join