Major severe weather outbreak in the southern plains - 04/26/2016 - 04/29/2016

a reply to: ketsuko

NWS KS/OK discussion...

LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER- END SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON- EVENING...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 80-100 KT SPEED MAX APPROACHES MID-AMERICA FROM THE WEST...OVERSPREADING AN INCREASING MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. FINER DETAILS REGARDING WARM FRONT/DRYLINE PLACEMENT ALONG WITH TRACK OF UPPER SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT BETWEEN VARIOUS RUNS AND MODELS...WHICH SHOULD BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS REMAINED FAIRLY HIGH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...LENDING CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. WITH CONTINUED FLUCTUATIONS IN MODEL VARIABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO HASH OUT FINER DETAILS JUST YET. BUT GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY...OVERALL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE ACROSS KS/OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON- EVENING...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-VIOLENT TORNADOES. STAY TUNED.

a reply to: TechniXcality

Some graphics for north Texas

a reply to: TechniXcality

Thanks for that. My parents live rural.

a reply to: ketsuko

Yes, the model data that I am seeing, with Curved Hodographs , are seriously dangerous (large violent tornadoes) wouldn't be surprised if SPC issues our first PDS or high risk watch within the next few days over Kansas, Oklahoma, and North Texas.

Well, that figures. Those two days I'll be on the road visiting clients.

Maybe I should borrow NBC5's Thunder Truck, LOL.

originally posted by: TechniXcality
a reply to: ketsuko

Yes, the model data that I am seeing, with Curved Hodographs , are seriously dangerous (large violent tornadoes)) wouldn't be surprised if SPC issues our first PDS or high risk watch within the next few days over Kansas, Oklahoma, and North Texas.

Tornados? Large violent ones (as opposed to little peaceful ones)? In Kansas, Oklahoma, and North Texas?
How odd.

a reply to: texasgirl

The good news and the bad news is that Tuesdays severe storms look to be primarily in the late evening/night now this could change, but also this is dangerous because if violent tornadoes spin off it will be difficult to track and see them coming.. How Wednesday evolves is dependent a lot on how Tuesday evolves so its hard to pin point finer details about either day right now, but as of now in north Texas it does appear the cap will break on Tuesday where a incredible amount of instability will be available.

originally posted by: Phage

originally posted by: TechniXcality
a reply to: ketsuko

Yes, the model data that I am seeing, with Curved Hodographs , are seriously dangerous (large violent tornadoes)) wouldn't be surprised if SPC issues our first PDS or high risk watch within the next few days over Kansas, Oklahoma, and North Texas.

Tornados? Large violent ones (as opposed to little peaceful ones)? In Kansas, Oklahoma, and North Texas?
How odd.

It's spring. We all know it's coming, but it is awfully helpful to know what days to be alert especially when you live out in the country without sirens handy.

a reply to: ketsuko
Yes. Science can actually be a benefit.

No matter what aunt Jenny's rhematiz says.

(Sorry, I couldn't help it.)

a reply to: Phage

Yea, we are discussing long track Tornadoes (so obviously not ef1 type spin ups), and a severe weather outbreak forecast to occur over the plains this week. These thread I enjoy making to keep people informed and frankly this severe weather outbreak might be our first high risk of the season.

a reply to: Phage
It's not called tornado ally with out reason.

When I was verifying severe wx forcasts back in the 90's I saw more hits in ne Tx than anywhere else.
Doesn't negate the purpose of this thread, however.

originally posted by: Phage

originally posted by: TechniXcality
a reply to: ketsuko

Yes, the model data that I am seeing, with Curved Hodographs , are seriously dangerous (large violent tornadoes)) wouldn't be surprised if SPC issues our first PDS or high risk watch within the next few days over Kansas, Oklahoma, and North Texas.

Tornados? Large violent ones (as opposed to little peaceful ones)? In Kansas, Oklahoma, and North Texas?
How odd.

I'm more afraid of the large, violent tornadoes (rather than the peaceful ones, LOL) These F-4/5 tend to be wedge, up to 2 mile wide tornadoes that are so big a lot of people aren't aware they're even tornadoes. There's no place to go but underground to survive these and we in Texas (Oklahoma too, I think) don't have basements to seek shelter in.

I'd take a peaceful one over a large, violent one any day.

a reply to: TechniXcality

I understand, and your sentiment is valid.
Just the notion of having to say "large violent tornadoes" seems sort of funny, when trying to visualize what the converse would be. Dust devils?

a reply to: Phage

yes, I understand and its difficult to make it clear when you say,"well on Saturday Texas had severe weather (golf ball sized hail 60mph winds) but next week is the severe weather outbreak to be concerned about", So yes occasionally I encounter redundancy even in the NWS discussions because its hard to convey the amount of severity ,damage, or loss of life that could occur.

a reply to: TechniXcality

Why would anyone live there?
(Says a guy who lives in hurricane country)

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: ketsuko
Yes. Science can actually be a benefit.

No matter what aunt Jenny's rhematiz says.

(Sorry, I couldn't help it.)

I never said otherwise.

Of course, I watch the big storms so I know when it's going to be a possible migraine day and to know when to be sensitive to my other triggers.

Is that too much like someone's "rhematiz"?

a reply to: ketsuko
Yeah. Pretty much the same.

Ever consider that the stress of knowing about an impending storm might be involved?

a reply to: Phage

For the same reason my aunt who is phobically terrified of tornadoes lives right around the San Andreas fault.

a reply to: ketsuko
Ah.
But there are no earthquake warnings, are there?

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: ketsuko
Yeah. Pretty much the same.

Ever consider that the stress of knowing about an impending storm might be involved?

Mmmhmmm, you can take it up with my neurologist. I've been tracking the patterns now for years. They correlate with weather changes year round. So unless you think I also quake in fear at the thought of a lot of cold rain during the fall ...