Will Syrian Cease-Fire Coming Soon Affect the Flow of Refugees into Europe?

Great news on the proposed ceasefire (if it happens), but will it affect the flow of refugees into Europe or not?

We are living in dangerous times and I can't help wondering at the timing of this event. How many Syrians will want to go home, probably quite a few because home is home and with financial help to rebuilt which will probably flow from other countries, perhaps the Syrians will have a future to look forward to. Or is it just a guise because of the dire financial situation?

originally posted by: Shiloh7
Great news on the proposed ceasefire (if it happens), but will it affect the flow of refugees into Europe or not?

We are living in dangerous times and I can't help wondering at the timing of this event. How many Syrians will want to go home, probably quite a few because home is home and with financial help to rebuilt which will probably flow from other countries, perhaps the Syrians will have a future to look forward to. Or is it just a guise because of the dire financial situation?

I haven't heard that ISIS is coming to the table? As they are part of

the problem .... however is that going to work?

Those who have accommodation, benefits etc. Why would they want

to return to a country which appears to have been flattened?

Anyway a lot can happen in a week .... I wont hold my breath.

Not change much! In effect in a weeks time. This wont last. Russia still bombing! The only way this could work is if all forces target ISIS and Al Nusra only and Arssad steps down or is removed!!!

a reply to: Shiloh7

My thinking is that if anything, the fact that there will be less bullets, mortars, grenades, missiles, and other assorted flying death all over the place, will mean that those who could not make it out of the area before, are going to hightail it for the border while there is a clearer route to do so.

If I were in their specific circumstances, I might choose to leave also. Given a choice between ones own rabid dictator, a rabid fundamentalist organisation sweeping in from outside, the Russians, and everyone else that had a dog in this fight, and leaving, I would be offski from out of Syria as fast as my little legs could carry me, especially if I had any remaining family.

If I did not, I would probably be inclined to remain, and shove a Kalashnikov up someone's tailpipe and blow their damned eyeballs out though. Nothing like seeing your neighbourhood collapse into literal rubble to remind an otherwise rational person what the term savage means.

a reply to: eletheia

The Cease Fire has been supposedly agreed by the USA's Kerry and Russia's Lavrov. I have always had the greatest respect for Lavrov because he';s not averse to telling the background to some of Russia's disagreements with the West which helps us get nearer to the truth than our politicians own up to.

a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

Apparently on the tube video Kerry saws that both parties will target Daesh and Al Nasra which will probably have the full backing of everyone. Those people need to be eradicated.

Once they know about this anyone care to bet they will exodus Syria as quickly as their nastily little terrorist legs can get them back to their 'host countries - where I hope the authorities will be smart enough to grab them and put them on trial.

a reply to: TrueBrit

You forget Russia has had a base in Syria for a very long time without Syrians squealing to leave because the Russians were living there.

Many of the men claiming asylum supposedly left their relatives in Syria so now with a ceasefire in the offing, who will give these men asylum so perhaps their only option will be to go home and rebuild?

Don't forget we give huge amounts of aid every year which will go, along with other countries foreign aid to help rebuild
Syria so perhaps there is a future there and - people like new buildings so I won't hold my breath that everyone will want to leave their homeland.

Eliminating Al Nusra et al...may be tougher than you think...they are pretty tough customers and have been some of the best fighters in the war at times...
Daesh hasn't altered its stance either....
To be honest....
a few hundred functioning MANPADS and the whole bombing thing would be kaput....

originally posted by: Shiloh7
a reply to: eletheia

The Cease Fire has been supposedly agreed by the USA's Kerry and Russia's Lavrov. I have always had the greatest respect for Lavrov because he';s not averse to telling the background to some of Russia's disagreements with the West which helps us get nearer to the truth than our politicians own up to.

I don't know why its not Putin at the talks .... nothing can be agreed

without his say so. A delaying tactic?

originally posted by: Shiloh7
Great news on the proposed ceasefire (if it happens), but will it affect the flow of refugees into Europe or not?

Depends. Do you believe they are actually coming here to escape war?

a reply to: Shiloh7

First of all, we get conflicting data from all quarters about the demography of those who have migrated at the moment. First, we have tales that suggest that no one actually knows the demography of the migrants, because they are too numerous and too spread out to make a proper tally. Then we have the insane suggestion that men have left their women and children in bombed out cities and taken boats to here and there, when it is more likely that the menfolk left their women and children in camps outside Syria, and have moved on to find digs where there is actual food and running water, where they can actually provide some safety and security for their loved ones, assuming they can send for them once any asylum process has been completed in a host nation.

We are constantly bombarded with conflicting, and therefore unclear data, as to what, precisely is going on with migrant groups, and so it does not follow that the situation will necessarily change. Furthermore, I think we all know by now, that international aid is a bloody joke. So little of the money our government in the UK sets aside for aid in other nations, actually makes it out of the UK, and even less than that actually gets spent on food, clothes, and shelter for those in need. The vast majority of the cost goes to greasing palms, logistics, management costs, and other things which any aid agency worth a damn would not be using aid money to do. A few billion in aid looks good over ten years, and gives those in western and developed nations a case of the warm fuzzies, but all that really pays for is a continuation of a totally unacceptable situation on the ground, not a rapid, impactful, or effective improvement of it.

Until improvements have been made, which, going by the state of most Syrian towns at the moment will take DECADES even if it is all done in a relative rush, no one is going to want to go back there worth a crap, not for a while at any rate. The place is bombed out, crater strewn, awash with unexploded ordnance and even the places which are in relatively good order by the standards of the rest, are riddled with bullet holes and are not connected to reliable sources of energy, because of infrastructural damage inflicted by the chaos there.

It is also worth pointing out, that the rebuilding effort will be impossible to enact, until or unless the situation does not merely reduce to a cessation of hostilities, but moreover, until the factors which started the whole mess in the first place, are addressed and expunged from the area. This includes both IS, Al Nusra or whatever the hell they call themselves, AND several other factions and leaders, not least of which would be Assad himself, whose operatives dropped barrel bombs from helicopters into civilian areas, which cannot be excused under any guise what so ever.

These things will all need wrapping up, BEFORE people start to go home, otherwise there will be no incentive for them to return. It will be a long process, just getting the conflict to end, before which any rebuilding effort would be wasteful in all probability, as a return to hostilities could wipe any efforts made in that regard, right off the board.

Even thinking about the effect this might have on the migrant population at present, is very premature. There are far too many hurdles between the present day, and any potential return of masses of people. This is a long haul issue, to the point where we are not even sure as yet if returning to Syria is going to be possible, let alone desirable.

a reply to: eletheia

Surely this is a foreign minister's job, Obama and Cameron weren't there. However Lavrov has been in his job for a long time and is extremely experienced and obviously has the complete backing of Putin.

It was Lavrov who exposed the agreement made after WW2 between Russia then ally to the USA and UK etc that the Europe would never encroach on Russia's border. This all changed with EU expansion and the Ukraine situation. Without Lavrov's information most of us wouldn't have understood why russia was so antsy about this slow encroachment and certainly would have no knowledge about the agreement in place, which our governments were trying to ignore.

I doubt its a delaying tactic because Russia itself is very concerned about Islamic expansion also and is every bit at risk as EU countries are, so the need to eradicate expansionistic terrorist groups favouring Islamic domination is a prime policy.

Its questionable as to why up until Russian intervention the USA and West's policy in syria hadn't worked, That policy had had a long time to have some effect but it hadn't, in fact it created the current situation with the refugees.

originally posted by: eletheia

originally posted by: Shiloh7
Great news on the proposed ceasefire (if it happens), but will it affect the flow of refugees into Europe or not?

We are living in dangerous times and I can't help wondering at the timing of this event. How many Syrians will want to go home, probably quite a few because home is home and with financial help to rebuilt which will probably flow from other countries, perhaps the Syrians will have a future to look forward to. Or is it just a guise because of the dire financial situation?

I haven't heard that ISIS is coming to the table? As they are part of

the problem .... however is that going to work?

Those who have accommodation, benefits etc. Why would they want

to return to a country which appears to have been flattened?

Anyway a lot can happen in a week .... I wont hold my breath.

No they don't seem to be included and I've just read that Russia will continue bombing Aleppo.

"Cessation of hostilities" will exclude action against so-called Islamic State group, jihadist group al-Nusra Front and other UN-designated terrorist groups

BBC

Yes, exactly - how could Syrians even begin to think about returning to what will still be a warzone? It seems way too early to guess what might happen.

a reply to: bandersnatch

Sadly we all know their strategies and how effective Al Nasra are, but surely the more you isolate that group and cut their supply roots the sooner this group will be eradicated or people will leave it and flee.

Lets face it though the sooner the money is cut off, the sooner these people won't be able to survive and that has been one of the main reasons they haven't been defeated already. However they have done a good propaganda job up till now for the media and public opinion, haven't they?

a reply to: EvillerBob

Some probably but most have seen an economic opportunity and of course good benefits paid to people who have put nothing towards the benefit bill.

However by making this ceasefire agreement you suddenly cut off the right to claim Asylum don't you?

I would say this peace brokerage is somewhat clever and made behind the scenes re the Americans and has come at exactly the right time to save people like Merkel, Cameron and the rest of the ruling mob.

originally posted by: Shiloh7


However by making this ceasefire agreement you suddenly cut off the right to claim Asylum don't you?

True .... but SO much harder to remove when their feet are firmly planted on your ground??

a reply to: TrueBrit

I suspect we both agree that only lounge lizards believe the media's propaganda today because most people know our media is run by those with a political agenda and their puppet presenters who will only ask the 'right sort of questions'.

Something our media never touches on is how many people have applied to enter Russia because it only concentrates on either EU countries or the USA in our media. I found this interesting because it shows another facet of the propaganda war going on against Russia by the West and USA. However Russia obviously, when you look at these figures has a vested interest in stopping the flow of asylum seekers, hence another reason, apart from its alliance with Syria in getting a peace initiative there.

Asylum-Seekers
At least 1.66 million people submitted applications for asylum in 2014, the highest level ever recorded.
With an estimated 274,700 asylum claims, the Russian Federation became the largest recipient of new individual applications in 2014, followed by Germany (173,100), and the USA (121,200) . www.unhcr.org.uk...

In Europe, over 800,000 migrants have traveled to Europe by sea in 2015, according to the United Nations refugee agency, and a little over half have come from Syria. About 62% of all migrants that have traveled to Europe this year, however, are men. A little under a quarter, 22%, are children and only 16% are women. The New York Times reported in October the mass exodus of men to parts of Europe could cause problems in both the countries they leave and the countries they enter. The head of the International Organization for Migration in Turkey told the Times: “We know on the positive side that migration can boost economies and trade and lead to cultural exchange … But if it is mismanaged, it becomes a problem for both the receiving states and the countries left behind.”

So here we have it 62% are men, 16% women. Funny how these men travel without caring about their wives, sisters and mothers. If these men are genuine and get established here then the figures will swell like mad if they try to bring in their dependants.

Hence I suspect the timing of this agreement because Western governments have simply got the wind up that their populace are not necessarily supporting their influx of cheap labour policy.

Obviously any rebuilding especially with towns like Homs totally destroyed isn't going to happen overnight, but the workers needed to rebuild these towns won't come out of thin air and with the cease fire Syrians will be encouraged, especially the unqualified to go back and their applications refused. I suspect they will have little choice. You can only look at this as a work in progress and starting up but at least it gives Syrians hope and a chance to return home.

a reply to: eletheia

I am wondering how many of their fighters are Syrians, Iraqis etc I suspect a lot have gone on their religious jollies to join the fight for an islamic state. We know a number are running as fast as their little legs can get them back into the West and surely, with a concentrated bombing and troops on the ground, if the USA does follow up on this, it is going to make their decision to die or not to very much sooner for them rather than later.

Well, an outbreak of peace and the removal of the Assad regime and killing off of the ISIS psychos would be good. All the Syrian refugees could then go home. There are a million young men, eager to work, sitting in Germany and Sweden as I type.

originally posted by: paraphi

To edit your post >>>>


Well, an outbreak of peace and the removal of the Assad regime

and killing off of the ISIS psychos would be good.

All the Syrian refugees could then go home. There are a million

young men, eager to work, sitting in Germany and

Sweden as I type.

??