Firstly, I have to make clear, I find this whole thread to be a ridiculous argument. Forgetting all ad hominems and unsubstantiated sloganeering
against India, there simply will not be a major clash of armies between the two nations. The Tibetan plateau, the Burmese jungle and the Ladakh
steppes make it impossible for massed armored or mechanized deployments. The nature of the Line of Actual Control and the extremely militarized and
fortified border in the Himalay and the Western sector would make any type of attack require an absolutely overwhelming force in order to break
through the front lines.
In the Kargil war with Pakistan, the only modern massed ultra high-altitude conforontation, the terrain required India to have a 5:1-8:1 advantage
versus the Paksitanis who were minimally fortified on mountain heights of some 14,000 feet sheer cliffs. (I recommend reading
Center for Contemporary Conflict's workshop: Asymmetric Conflict in South Asia
more information on this.) The Indo-Chinese border is even higher, more rugged, more fortified, and the armies more entrenched. The political and
strategic risks for escalation is also incredibly more high.
Any India-China war in the future will be limited to border skirmishes on far flung outposts both sides have established in the no-mans land between
their defensive lines. Both sides have equally extensive infrastructure to the front lines that will faciliate troop movements and reinforcements,
with geography and transport capabilities giving a slight advantage to India. The conflict will take place at the tactical level.
The border skirmishes since the 62 war (a whole other topic), in the 70s and 80s, followed exactly this. In all these recent skirmishes, India had
come out the clear winner, as it was able to use mobility plus superior airlift and artillery capabilities to its advantage.
Originally posted by W4rl0rD
This is a downright stupid argument. The IA and PLA have similar infantry equipment and APCs/IFVs (Type 81,INSAS,both copies of Ak-47s.There,don't
say only China copys stuff) (BMP1/2 and OT62/64 against Type 90s and Type 92s).The Chinese have a huge advantage over the IA.
You logic fails. Where exactly does the Chinese "have a huge advantage over the IA"? In terms of size? Well, lets talk strategically deployable
Both countries have similar weapons supplied mostly by Russia,while China has larger numbers.Comparing your best to our best,equipment is
roughly equal in technology.
I would broadly agree. However, the majority of modern PLA equipment are arrayed in the elite battle formations. These formations have specific set
deployments that cannot be redeployed. The ones deployed/deployable against India are matched by Indian deployments. The Indian units have clear
technological superiority over their PLA counterparts, have far easier a logistical chain, a more extensive C3I network, as well as integrated
force-multipliers through the IAF that the Chinese cannot currently match.
Moreover, Indian Army units are trained in amongst the best institutions in the world, and all combat units -- all of them -- have the incalculable
but awesome advantage of actual combat experience in both counter-terror, COIN and conventional deployments.
China's Navy's main threat is from its fast attack craft,they can be deployed in a moment's notice,are cheap and effective.
Are you joking? PLAN attack craft will traverse the entire length around the Indochina, through the busiest international shipping lanes of the
Malaccas, and into the Indian ocean completely undetected and unmolested? Especially since the Indian Navy actively patrols from the Gulf to the South
China sea at not only the request of the ASEAN nations, but also with the cooperation of the USN? These little ships are then to freely operate in the
Bay of Bengal against India, away from bases 3000kms away?
This arguemnt can just as forcefully be made against all Chinese surface vessels. It is simply a strategic (and logistical) impossibility for PLAN
ships to even operate past the Indonesian archipelago and even more so with forward IN deployments in the region. (It is similarly impossible for
effective IN deployments in the south China sea, though IN has demonstrated its capability for sustained carrier operations there, off the Vietnamese
The only theat against the IN from the Chinese comes from the submarine fleets, which as you stated are in terms of capability roughly equal. (India
has more modern subs, but less of them.) But neither country will deploy its subs so far out of reach, when they are necessary for their roles of
denial of their operatable regions.
Furthermore, any India-Chinese conflict will last an extremely short (2-3 week max) duration. As such, the majority of each country's navy will not
see active conflict. Furthermore, the IN's responsibility is the denial of the Indian Ocean region from all regional and extra-regional powers, which
is why it is so capable. It is an accepted fact that the IN can do this, and even the USN brass has admitted that even it would be hard pressed to
operate in the IOR with a hostile IN. (USN CINCPACFLT recently said so during a press conference about the Tsunami.) The PLAN on the other hand is
almost exclusively structured for operations against Taiwan.
Neither navies would compromize this core role (IOR deniability, Taiwan-straights-support respectively) by useless and ineffective forward
deployments. In 10-15 years, judging how both navies are shaping up, it will be a different story.
Both are good projects,but take a look at their Chinese equivalents (Type 98 & J-10).The Arjun and LCA are produced too late to be any good
when they come out in full service.The Chinese equivalents are also cheaper.
Strongly disagree on varying counts. The Arjun is already being inducted in regimental strength as we speak. Within the next two years it will reach
full production capability. The Arjun is significantly superior to the Type-98s, and even superior (and more expensive!) than the T-90s that India is
also inducting. The expense of the Arjun, though it remains the best tank in any conflict India may have with its neighbors, is the major limiting
factor. However, it is not designed to replace the whole armored corps, but plays a specific specialized role in the complete reorganization of the IA
under the "cold start" doctrine (forward-deployed cohesive battlegroups capable of high-mobility and non-set-piece deployments). The Arjun with its
formidable armor and fcs will serve as the spearhead of any IA division attack, along with the T-90s, T-72s upg giving support. In terms of cost
comparison with the Chinese tanks, it is a cost-utility matchup, with a more expensive Arjun and T-90 having greater capabilities.
The LCA, as I have explained in great detail in the LCA thread, will come around when the tranche 2 J-10s come out. Per-unit cost is comparable, and
any disadvantage versus the PLAAF that the initial delays have caused will be made up by induction of the 125 MRCA + deep license production (most
likely Mirage-2000-9s or MiG-29SMTs.) This will also fulfill the combat squadron increase in the IAF. Also, as of now, no one can make any
cost-comparisons of LCA v. J-10 because there are no credible figures for per-unit cost.
India doesn't have a nuclear deterrent.Get it into your head,because India will be hoping that China doesn't nuke their asses.If India nukes
China,can anyone guess what will happen? No prizes for guessing,kids
Now I know you must be joking. India doesn't have a nuclear deterrent?? I guess induction of 1-200 Agnis of various builds, to say nothing of the
Prithvis, etc. already operationalized, and the weaponization of both IA and IAF units (with all IAF planes being nuclear capable) do not count as a
strategic nuclear deterrant?
No doubt China has more nukes, but unlike China, India's nuclear doctrine is for credible minimum deterrance, i.e. enough nukes + platforms to
deliver them to turn China into a wasteland. It doesn't matter of China can nuke India three times over. The singular destruction of the entire
nation-state of the PRC is within India's capabilities. That is why no war will go nuclear, and will be limited. THAT is nuclear deterrance.
Neither China nor India need allies to conduct themselves in a war against the other. Even if Pakistan joins in, the very nature of the Indian
numerical, technological, etc. superiority over Pakistan will negate any Pakistani response. The currently deployed forces against Pakistan are at an
raw 3:1 numerical advantage, and this is not even considering IA mobility doctrine and localized strategic superiority. Pakistan simply cannot mount
an offensive campaign against Inida.
And again, the whole idea of nuclear redlines in an India-China or India-Pakistan conflict will prevent the other from joining in.
Ill address more posts as soon as I get the time, later.
[edit on 12-1-2005 by rajkhalsa2004]