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The planets very much affect the earth, indirectly, by having an effect on the Sun. Some planets are very large. If the Sun was a basketball the gas giants Jupiter and Saturn would be the size of grapeftuits, and the Earth would be, on that scale, the size of a peppercorn.
Jupiter and Saturn cause extra tides on the Sun when they get on either side of the Sun (as with Moon - Earth-Sun when the moon is full) and when these gas giants get on the same side as the Sun, (as with Earth -Moon - Sun when the moon is new). These greater solar tides become sunspot activity and solar flares and can be understood as akin to the increase in tides caused by the Moon when it too gets alongside Earth or opposite Earth.
At the moment we have Jupiter and Saturn on either side of the Sun and creating a tug of war with Earth in the middle. That started last September and will continue until about May. In September the Earth was right in line with Jupiter, Saturn and the Sun too. That's why there were several 7+ earthquakes around, it wasn't just us. For instance there was one in Pakistan on the same day as Christchurch. This Jupiter/Saturn alignment continues until about May, and the Earth comes back into line as well in March. It is why there may be an extreme event, perhaps a large earthquake, around 20 March, which is when the Moon may be again in a trigger position.
Dr Mark Quigley, Senior Lecturer in Active Tectonics and Geomorphology at Canterbury University
No one has predicted the recent earthquakes in Canterbury.
Vague quotes about dates of 'increased' activity plus or minus several days, without magnitudes, locations, and exact times do not constitute prediction.
This is opportunistic and meaningless self promotion during a time of national crisis.
Consider implementation of this 'predictive' strategy. Should we evacuate an area every time the moon is on its closest approach, is full, or new, or is moving rapidly?
Imagine the fear and frustration of such an approach, particularly given the unspecified times, locations, and magnitudes of the supposed 'imminent' events.
Without a basic understanding of how faults generate earthquakes, where the faults are, at what stage they are at in the seismic cycle, and how they have been affected by prior activity, where should we evacuate and where should we go to? This would require several evacuations a month of 'unspecified areas' to other 'unspecified areas'. This is ludicrous.
Matt Gerstenberger - Geological Hazard Modeller; David Rhoades - Geophysical Statistician, both of GNS Science
Validation of an earthquake prediction methodology is a notoriously tricky undertaking.
Unfortunately it is not as simple as taking a single prediction, whatever that may be, and comparing it to what occurred.
It may be that a particular method has some bits of useful information in it, enough that it may get the prediction correct one out of every five times, or one out of every 100 times, or maybe, one out of every 10,000 times.
For a prediction to be useful it must be understood where in this range the method falls. If it is correct 1-in-10,000 times, or is wrong much more often than it is correct, it will be of little help and a random guess will do just as well.
A significant body of research has been directed at the idea that earthquakes may be predictable based on tidal information. While some of the studies have shown that there may be some level of correlation between the occurrence of earthquakes and tides, the correlation is low enough so that a prediction based on it would be correct only a small proportion of the time and would be wrong much more often than it is correct.
I think it is perfectly reasonable to investigate whether the magnetic influence of the moon and the tides have an effect on the weather and earthquakes. It does no good to have a closed mind, remember they once thought the earth was flat.
You have no right to be part of a criticism of teh Moon Man. At least he predicts
You guys are as useless as an economist - you only comment on history and have no capability of predicting the future or when activity is likely to happen. You have only just found out that the last few quakes came from a totally new fault line around the Port Hills and were telling everyone it was connected to the Darfield faultline.
So maybe sharpen up your own highly paid ( and Government Funded too ) jobs that we taxpayers fund with very few tangible outcomes.
A large number of NZ farmers have sworn by the Moon man for many successful years - he has saved them millions by correctly predicting the weather. The Moon Man has a track record - of success.
That is a lot more than you guys have delivered - maybe all the noise now iis to cover your ineptness and incompetence - The Moon Man is a genuine threat to you.
There is irrefutable scientific evidence, that the moon can indeed precipitate or, play a part in earthquake phenomena. The boffin on Campbell's show even stated as such. Perhaps Mr. Moon Man’s work and studies extend beyond what the ’experts’ have been taught at University? At medical school it is called the ‘caterpillar effect‘, where students are discouraged from thinking beyond the square of conventional treatments, primarily to protect the profits of the pharmaceutical industry.
Campbell has always been and will always be, a prize prat. I presume Mr Moon Man was invited on to Campbells show based on his solid reputation for accurately predicting NZ weather over many decades, and upon which a significant number of NZ farmers depend (read NZ economy). To diss, and be so arrogant and rude to a man with such a solid reputation in his field of accurate weather forecasting, without giving him the curtesy of allowing him to explain his theories in-depth on earthquake prediction, was disgusting. Only time will tell if he is right or wrong.
Ironic, but I read today that a top, USA geo-scientist predicts a major earthquake(s) in the world (circa March 20), which apparently has to do with an exchange of polarity (whatever the hell that means!!), occurring at both the North and South poles, around this time.
Originally posted by MoorfNZ
Here in Canterbury the Moon Man is well-known to many farmers who swear by his weather forecasts. However, most people think he's a nut-job.
As for his earthquake predictions, he says to expect more quake activity in the weeks either side of a full or new moon.. errrm... that covers EVERY DAY!!
It's like me saying there's a 100% chance that the next quake will fall on a day of the week that contains the letter "y".
He's causing undue panic and fear in an already frightened place.
They shouldn't have given him the time of day on the news - at least not this soon after the devastation we're all still coming to terms with.
edit on 1-3-2011 by MoorfNZ because: (no reason given)
Originally posted by 3finjo
I am a Kiwi and have never heard of that guy until John Campbell showed his lack of interviewing skill in what was a very one-sided and biased attack on him. Now he is a household name (and more people than ever think Campbell is very poor at his job). I understand why some people are angry at Ring by trying to gain publicity from an event that has rocked our whole country but his theories can be either dismissed or we wait for time to prove him wrong or right. Once may be a coincidence, but two predictions would make everyone sit up and really take notice.
Ancient civilisations knew that the planets affect our earth and they were more clued up on them than we are - our modern scientists are very closed minded and aggressive towards anyone who suggests alternative ideas. In the end it may be them that are proved wrong, who knows. I will watch this space anxiously - i am on the south island on 20 March.
Once may be a coincidence, but two predictions would make everyone sit up and really take notice.
Earthquakes correlate with kingtides - they are a function of the kingtide in the land deep under the ground. The whole 2/3 of the planet that is beneath the Earth's surface has a moving egg-shaped bulge that, as the earth daily rotates, is always pointing to the moon, just as when a magnet is moved above a plate of iron filings and the area under the magnet is always more responsive. The perigee is in control of the timing of the kingtide. Sometimes new moon accompanies perigee (4 Sept 7.1-mag event), sometmes full moon (22 Feb 6.3-mag event), so kingtide follows this as well. From February onwards Full moon accompanied perigee, so kingtides were full moon-related. It does not mean all full moons bring the biggest earthquakes. Perigee usually has to be involved.
March 19-21 will be the closest moon for a few years either side of 2011. It is perhaps noteworthy that the closest moon in 2010 (end of January) brought the Haiti earthquake, and the closest moon in 2009 (July) brought an earthquake in China that destroyed 10,000 homes. It is alarmism to continually beat up every weather phenomenon as bizarre, unusual and a signal that the planet is approaching a tipping point due to the behaviour of Man, such that unless extra taxation be applied the planet is doomed.
At times there will be advice that is not welcomed – that is always the potential. But we have to take that along with the news we prefer. Most places will not be affected 19-21 March and again 17-18 April. But some undoubtedly will be. The perspective is that there is more potential for extreme events than on other dates. These will make the headlines and the unfortunate areas struck will take years to recover, whilst the rest heave sighs of relief. We are always trying to gauge which areas will be most affected, and to this end we have science and technology.
Originally posted by MoorfNZ
Well it fell at the first hurdle for me.
Haiti earthquake was on 12th which was closer to the apogee than the perigee.
I would like to see John Campbell interview Victor Gostin. He is a scientist and has academic credentials, which should satisfy JCs need for such Scientists don't agree on everything, in fact they often agree on very little! "But wait - this just in from Dr Victor Gostin, Planetary and Environmental Geoscientist at Adelaide University. He told news.com.au the predictions of weather and earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and other natural disasters based on planetary configurations have not been successful, but there may be some correlation between near-equatorial large scale earthquakes and new and full moon situations. “This is because the Earth-tides (analogous to ocean tides) may be the final trigger that sets off the earthquake,” he said."
Anyone who has spent more than 60 seconds reading Ken Ring's analysis will know that the moon is not the only factor he talks about, none of the scientists last night spoke about the solar activity. Here is a quote from Ken's site: "The Sun is the engine and the moon is the driver. Energy for events comes from the Sun but the moon is the trigger." All Ken is saying is that on such and such date/s the moon will be in a position where it could cause an effect, the moon is plottable and predictable months in advance. However, look to the sun for the energy to drive the event, it takes time for the sun's effects to get to earth. X2 flare on Feb 15th, X1.5 flare on March 9th. There were large flares preceding Sept 4th but on the far side of the sun, coronal holes causing large electro-magnetic aurora (at both poles) were facing earth. NASA even have a word for the sun's activity effecting earth, it's called "geoeffective action" Plus I agree with Rob, why not usher in an new era of co-operation where instead of shooting everyone down who is "wrong" according to modern science ideas are explored and shared. Some people behave as if Ken was the only person in the world who thinks that solar combined with lunar combined with pre-existing stress in the fault triggers earthquakes. We also used to think that everything revolved around the earth and that we were the centre of the universe.
Earthquake triggers are probably complex and result from multiple factors. Tectonic plates are like giant conveyor belts continually emerging at the ridges, rolling across the planet surface and disappearing at the subduction zones. Not surprisingly, earthquakes occur frequently at the plate boundaries. But the big ones are not so common and could be caused by gravitational and geomagnetic triggers. The graph that was posted on the University of Canterbury website showed moon full-new moon phases plus the perigee-apogee phase against earthquake strength. It looked pretty obvious to me that where perigee coincided with full moon or new moon and same for coincident apogee, larger earthquakes occurred. There is another trigger which was not discussed on your program and that was solar activity. Check out the number of sunspots in 1960 and then have a look at the biggest earthquakes since 1900 - 3 huge quakes including the biggest ever recorded. It is thought that solar flares are responsible for triggering earthquakes as they interact with the Earths magnetic field. As the magnetic field is created by our spinning molten core it would not be surprising if there is a link between solar flares and earthquakes. The sun has recently passed through a solar minimum (lesser sunspots & so lesser flares) and is now experiencing increasing sunspot numbers. If we get a big solar flare in the next few days as well as the biggest perigee of the year plus full moon, I for one won't be surprised if there is also a big earthquake. Ken Ring has done everyone a favour even if there isn't a big quake as people will prepare for an actual event compared to one some unknown time in the future.
Originally posted by SpaceJockey
University of Washington in Seattle seismologist John Vidale agrees that particularly dramatic land and ocean tides do trigger earthquakes.
March 20, 2011
Three aftershocks, one a strong 5.1 magnitude, rattled quake-weary residents of Christchurch late tonight.
Christchurch was ravaged by a 6.3 earthquake on February 22 which killed an estimated 182 people and has experienced many aftershocks in the month since then.
But three tremors rolled across the city in quick succession tonight, one of 3.0 at 9.43pm. the second of 5.1 four minutes later and the third of 2.9.
The second and third shocks were in almost exactly the same location - 10km east of the city, and 10km and llkm deep.
A Civil Defence spokeswoman told NZPA there were no reports of damage, but police and Civil Defence staff were checking building in central Christchurch.
Staff remained on standby at the Emergency Operations Centre at the Art Gallery.
One source told NZPA the first tremor was what Christchurch residents had become accustomed to as a "fairly standard" aftershock but the second jolt was much stronger and lasted a lot longer.