Jet Stream problems! This Is My 3rd Thread On This Subject! More Corroborative Evidence!

rads.tudelft.nl...

Have a look at the Gulf Stream info in this movie covering the past 6 months then come back and tell me you think the Gulf Stream has changed or is stalling.

Get with the science.

Has no one realized that "today" is the first day of winter and that this may be the coldest autumn in years? I live in Kentucky and it has never been this cold, this early. I realize that the Earth goes through cycles but this is different somehow. Every weather station I looked upon in October predicted a mild Winter this year but apparently, they were wrong. We have been under an inch of ice for a week now without any melting and a foot of snow for almost a month! Not normal!

Some say that la Nina is causing this?

"NOAA says the La Niña Winter of 1999-2000, December through February, was the warmest on record (since 1900) for the United States".www.stormfax.com...

Also, the NOAA predicts higher than normal temperatures for the central and southern U.S. from November 2010 - January 2011 because of La Nina.

Just Sayin'.

not pointing fingers at the jet stream or BP/Macondo just yet ... 20+yrs in southern FL and i've experienced snow here, at least 3 times. Not just token flakes either ... enough accumulation on vehicles to make a snowball or two.
20+more yrs in PA and during more than one blizzard year.
As many things impact our weather patterns, i hardly believe the oil disaster is single-handedly responsible for these current changes. November 2010, has been the 3rd hottest on record in 32yrs of satellite records. (and the other 2 Novs weren't impacted by oil spills, corexit or global warming nonsense.
Yes, extremes ... but, we've had them before and we'll have them again ... that is a law of nature.

reply to post by jdub297


"You're right of course. It's all just a normal winter, even though winter hasn't started yet. It's just a couple of flakes. It's not as if much of the northern hemisphere is being slammed by blizzards. It's not like people are actually dying of exposure.10 feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains? Big deal. It's just a couple of flakes."

reply to post by OzWeatherman


And that goes for you too.
Just a couple of flakes is all...

soooo, no one seems to be considering the possibilities of HAARP experiments, the new atom-smasher, the overall depletion of the Earth's lubricant (oil) or the astronomical influences not seen previously for almost 500 yrs ... yep, just the actions of today ... keep believin' it.

reply to post by discl0sur3


Thank you for this thread, very informative.
Bundle up people.

reply to post by discl0sur3


can you please explain why the winter of 2010 / 2011 was predicted to be severe , BEFORE the deepwater spill ?

EDIT :

to clarify - this was the long tem wather forcast for the UK

I have some really serious questions that i dont get have not been reported yet

a few weeks ago this post
www.abovetopsecret.com...

apeard saying the jet stream had moved way south of its normal position over Europe, i didn't pay much attention as i do not know much about the nature of the jet stream. Then 2 days ago I looked at current infra red weather maps of Europe and the world for that matter, and the Jet Stream is not there AT ALL anymore (in Europe)..... is it normal for it to fluctuate this much and actually disappear half way across the Atlantic like it does?



Well i just checked again and it looks like the Jet is slowly reappearing tho, it looks to be originating from Canada and not the gulf anymore...

reply to post by WiseThinker

the previous thread you linked was originated by same Op that started this one ... more like harping on old news. Yes, the jet stream fluctuates depending on a variety of circumstances. No scientist or poster can or should single out any one event as a catalyst. As you stated yourself, it is reappearing ... is it normal during the time frame records have been kept ? (nope) but that doesn't necessarily mean it isn't normal.
If the Earth cycles say every 15,000 yrs and this type of activity occurs each 500yrs, could it be considered 'normal'? (probably)
Clearly, the upcoming celestial alignment has been seen and recorded previously, does that make it normal but infrequent or totally unusual and worthy of concern or just maybe ... a bit of both??

reply to post by OzWeatherman


OzWeatherman, I understand your frustration at ignorance, but I think you better go back to the desert country. I think that salt air and city living is making you a little less tolerant. Many people who read these threads don't have time to research which is why they come here....to become better informed. So educate and inform them. Not all of them have read your 20 La Nina comments, there will always be someone who doesn't know it exists or what it is. Maybe you could start a La Nina thread that we could link on all these other 'the world is ending' weather threads?

By the way, a friend in Victoria told me that it snowed in the mountains today.....how many years is it since Victoria had summer snow? I wouldn't know where to find that info on BOM. I couldn't find it on the climate stats pages.

Originally posted by WiseThinker
I have some really serious questions that i dont get have not been reported yet

a few weeks ago this post
www.abovetopsecret.com...

apeard saying the jet stream had moved way south of its normal position over Europe, i didn't pay much attention as i do not know much about the nature of the jet stream. Then 2 days ago I looked at current infra red weather maps of Europe and the world for that matter, and the Jet Stream is not there AT ALL anymore (in Europe)..... is it normal for it to fluctuate this much and actually disappear half way across the Atlantic like it does?



Well i just checked again and it looks like the Jet is slowly reappearing tho, it looks to be originating from Canada and not the gulf anymore...

Here's the latest 300 mb jet stream model analysis for December 20, 2010.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/d11751282ebd.gif[/atsimg]
squall.sfsu.edu...

I do notice steep downward temperature changes as compared to a few years ago here in NL. But on the other hand, the weather we experience here at the moment used to be normal about 20 years ago and back. For the Dutch, the warming up of our weather patterns meant that one of our traditions (elfstedentocht, a marathon on natural ice) couldnt be held for years in a row.

Yet it's weird that the drastic drops in temperatures coincide with the BP disaster and the problems with the gulf stream people have been talking about.

reply to post by dudleydoobad32

Some say that la Nina is causing this?

What is causing most of the change in the weather is a change in the PDO + AMO. (Think huge hot water bottle.)

That is the Atlantic (Ocean) Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific (Ocean) Decadal Oscillation

PDO + AMO graph


Here is the regression fit graph that is the observed vs the predicted temperatures.

note r squared is .85 a decent correlation alltough William M. Briggs
a Statistician says:

....the gist is that smoothing always increases correlation. Here is our recipe for generating spurious results:

1. Start with two absolutely unrelated time series which show no correlation,
2. Smooth one or both series,
3. Recompute the correlation;
4. If the correlation is not yet “statistically significant”, repeat 2 and 3 until it is.

This recipe is guaranteed. Correlation may be computed via linear regression, as D&E did, or by another other parametric statistical model. See their Figures 19 and 20 for confirmation.

I want to stress that if D&E did not smooth their data, the correlation would not have been as high; but as high as it would have been, it would still have been expected. All that smoothing has done here is artificially inflated the confidence D&E have in their results. It does not change the fact that AMO + PDO is well correlated with air temperature.

Predictability

The ocean is sluggish in response to external forcing, the atmosphere responds as quickly as a cheerleader returning a text. These two facts are why sea surface temperature indexes can be useful in predicting future air temperature. If some mechanism causes the sea surface temperature to increase in, say, the Pacific, then cetaris parabis the air above the sea it will eventually requite and warm itself....

wmbriggs.com...

Of course the real question is what drives the cyclical changes in ocean temperatures. One thing is for sure, we do not see oil spills happening on a 60 yr cycle.

Originally posted by OzWeatherman
reply to post by discl0sur3

 

And this is the 20th time Ive said this

LA NINA

Please do some damn research.....wow you people stun me

And again, for the 20th time, if any of you actually knew what you are talking about, you would realise that the jetstream location is not abnormal

squall.sfsu.edu...

And if you cant interpret any of those maps, you shouldnt even be talking about the jetstream

edit on 19/12/2010 by OzWeatherman because: (no reason given)

About blo*dy time someone talked some sense on this website reagding the weather. The amount of people who have no idea about chart interpritation, or forecasting or the JS or GS is rediculous, yet they think they know whats happening because of some cold weather (IN WINTER).

Cant we please go back to conspiracies instead of making threads about cold snowy weather that is NORMAL?

Originally posted by WiseThinker
I have some really serious questions that i dont get have not been reported yet

a few weeks ago this post
www.abovetopsecret.com...

apeard saying the jet stream had moved way south of its normal position over Europe, i didn't pay much attention as i do not know much about the nature of the jet stream. Then 2 days ago I looked at current infra red weather maps of Europe and the world for that matter, and the Jet Stream is not there AT ALL anymore (in Europe)..... is it normal for it to fluctuate this much and actually disappear half way across the Atlantic like it does?



Well i just checked again and it looks like the Jet is slowly reappearing tho, it looks to be originating from Canada and not the gulf anymore...

Yes yes yes yes yes yes yes, and its normal for the GS to dissappear and reappear aswell. The JS moving is what is causing the cold weather in Europe, once it moves again it will allow milder air into Europe and the snow will be gone and hopefully all these stupid threads about the JS, GS and the Coming Ice Age aswell....

I cant understand why this is hard for people to understand.

Weather patterns are influenced by a huge number of factors and we should also keep in mind that we are talking about HUGE things. I do believe the GS has been damaged by the oil spill (it seems obvious) but I am reluctant to believe the oil could stop GS totally. On the other side it's undeniable this year the winter came a bit too early...winter starts officially tomorrow, with the winter solstice, and it's already few weeks we are below zero in EU. Airports are closed (London, Paris and Amsterdam) and since I am an experienced traveller I have to say I do not remember such a mess with flights around Xmas. We should also not forget the statistical correlations between sunspots and temperatures here on Earth: when sun activity is low, here we experience very cold winters and glaciers move forward. Our Sun is just getting out from the most severe solar mininum (ever? some scientists say so) that's why I am not really surprised of this extreme cold during autumn. JS, GS, are very complex matters that cannot be understood or explained in 5 minutes, so let's try to be careful when talking about them.

Winter came nearly 2 months early in the UK this year and the snow is still coming down. Our autumn turned into winter.

While this may be a change in the natural cycle I can't deny the correlation between the gulf and the extremely cold and untimely weather we've been having.

Wouldn't a change in the cycle be a gradual progression unlike what we are seeing?

Just seemed appropriate:

SOME say the world will end in fire,
Some say in ice.
From what I’ve tasted of desire
I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice,
I think I know enough of hate
To know that for destruction ice
Is also great
And would suffice.

Robert Frost

Originally posted by Hundroid
Weather patterns are influenced by a huge number of factors and we should also keep in mind that we are talking about HUGE things. I do believe the GS has been damaged by the oil spill (it seems obvious) but I am reluctant to believe the oil could stop GS totally. On the other side it's undeniable this year the winter came a bit too early...winter starts officially tomorrow, with the winter solstice, and it's already few weeks we are below zero in EU. Airports are closed (London, Paris and Amsterdam) and since I am an experienced traveller I have to say I do not remember such a mess with flights around Xmas. We should also not forget the statistical correlations between sunspots and temperatures here on Earth: when sun activity is low, here we experience very cold winters and glaciers move forward. Our Sun is just getting out from the most severe solar mininum (ever? some scientists say so) that's why I am not really surprised of this extreme cold during autumn. JS, GS, are very complex matters that cannot be understood or explained in 5 minutes, so let's try to be careful when talking about them.

Very well said. There are MANY factors that play into this scenario including the Planet X theory which, much to my surprise, hasn't been mentioned thus far. The BP disaster has unquestionably had an impact on global weather patterns IMO. But...It has also been theorized by Gordon James Gianninoto on a Coast to Coast AM interview that the current solar minimum, which should actually be a solar maximum hasn't cycled due to the strong gravitational influence from the South pole of Planet X.

According to Gianninoto, it is essentially acting as a massive cosmic vacuum sucking up all the eddy's and particles that would normally cause the Sun to erupt...this goes much deeper