Originally posted by bodrul
is the start of the downfall of labour after a decade of them being the ruling party?
- I doubt that very much.
First of all the results were not the horrific drubbing some claimed they would be and secondly this is merely a return to the usual 'mid-term' dip
in form Govs have always experienced in the past......in fact the unusual thing was the way in which this Labour Gov had avoided those so-called
'mid-term blues' until very recently.
When opposition parties have nothing else to talk up they suddenly decide local elections and the occasional Westminster by-election(s) are the most
important things in the whole world, Labour and the LibDems did it during the tory 18yrs and now the tories and LibDems are doing it during the
current labour years.
What else are they going to do anyways, huh?
Cameron imagines his tory party getting 40% of the vote is "stunning".
It's certainly not a bad result but it's still well short of the 47% Labour were getting in local elections pre-1997, again.
But again, what else is he going to say, huh?
(this same conversation was had during the last round of local election results)
The truth is those tory results aren't signs of a massive shift in opinion, the tory vote is around what it was last time (the BBC say maybe up 1%)
and Labour's vote is around what it was last time (again the BBC say maybe up 1%).
The most important issue facing anyone in this is that a local election - particularly one in which the tory party have repeatedly said was a last
chance to bash Blair - is not a general election, it's nothing like a GE.
......and people downplay the effect at election time of Gordon Brown's solid economic record and Cameron's absence of any record at anything at all
(unless you want to count being one of Norman Lamont's bag-carriers and advisers during 'black Wednesday) at their peril.
There's a long way to go until the general election and the usual historic pattern is that incumbent Govs suffer dips in popularity during the
mid-term but recover noticeably at genera election time.
[edit on 4-5-2007 by sminkeypinkey]