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Originally posted by MicheleLee
Those that have not watched "An Inconvenient Truth", may I suggest you consider watching it.
royal76
that hit a shelf just hard enough to keep a current of water
grover
Well then I think sarcasm is more than called for.
Originally posted by Nygdan
False, the current change can not be linked to any known climate cycle pattern, nor explained by any known driver of climate, other than atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
Sun more active than for a millennium
The Sun is more active now than it has been for a millennium. The realisation, which comes from a reconstruction of sunspots stretching back 1150 years, comes just as the Sun has thrown a tantrum. Over the last week, giant plumes of have material burst out from our star's surface and streamed into space, causing geomagnetic storms on Earth.
The Medieval Warm Period was a time of unusually warm climate in Europe from about 850 until 1250 AD. The warm climate overlaps with a time of high solar activity called the Medieval Maximum.
Magnetic Field Weakening in Stages, Old Ships' Logs Suggest
John Roach
for National Geographic News
May 11, 2006
Earth's magnetic field is weakening in staggered steps, a new analysis of centuries-old ships logs suggests.
............
The field last flipped about 800,000 years ago, according to the geologic record.
............
But the field might not always be in steady decline, according to a new study appearing in tomorrow's issue of the journal Science. The data show that field strength was relatively stable between 1590 and 1840.
"It now looks as though it happens in steps rather than just one continuous fall," said David Gubbins, an earth scientist at the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom.
Records and Math
The magnetic field protects Earth from cosmic radiation. In its absence, scientists say, Earth would be subjected to more electrical storms that disrupt power grids and satellite communications (sun storm photos).
Conclusions
A review of research on past temperatures and variations led us to the following conclusions:
1.) Climate is in continual flux: the average annual temperature is usually either rising or falling and the temperature is never static for a long period of time.
2.) Observed climatic changes occurred over widespread areas, probably on the global scale.
3.) Climate changes must be judged against the natural climatic variability that occurs on a comparable time scale. The Little Ice Age, Medieval Warm Period, and similar events are part of this natural variability. These events correspond to global changes of 1-2oC.
4.) Global temperatures appear to be rising, irrespective of any human influence, as Earth continues to emerge from the Little Ice Age. If the temperature increase during the past 130 years reflects recovery from the Little Ice Age, it is not unreasonable to expect the temperature to rise another 2 to 2.5 degrees Celsius to a level comparable with that of the Medieval Warm Period about 800 years ago. The Holocene Epoch, as a whole, has been a remarkably stable period with few extremes of either rising or falling temperatures, as were common during Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods. Nevertheless, the Holocene has been, and still is, a time of fluctuating climate.
5.) Climatic changes measured during the last 100 years are not unique or even unusual when compared with the frequency, rate, and magnitude of changes that have taken place since the beginning of the Holocene Epoch. Recent fluctuations in temperature, both upward and downward, are well within the limits observed in nature prior to human influence.
What does seem apparent is that within the current interglacial period, starting some 10,000 years ago, there have been smaller patterns emerging – periods of warmer weather, followed by colder weather and so on. These have been broken down by climatologists into four main periods.
The first followed the end of the last Ice Age, indeed it caused it to end. The Earth probably reached its warmest about 5,000 or 6,000 years ago. At this time the temperature would have been on average about 2C (3.6F) warmer than the present day.
This period has acquired the name the Optimum period as a result, and was followed by a much colder spell. This more or less coincided with the historical period called the Iron Age, which reached its coldest around 2,500 years ago. (It should be remembered that these changes are gradual and do not occur overnight).
Previously, the warmest year of the century was 1998, when a strong El Nino, a warm water event in the eastern Pacific Ocean, added warmth to global temperatures. However, what's significant, regardless of whether 2005 is first or second warmest, is that global warmth has returned to about the level of 1998 without the help of an El Nino.
......................
Current warmth seems to be occurring nearly everywhere at the same time and is largest at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Over the last 50 years, the largest annual and seasonal warmings have occurred in Alaska, Siberia and the Antarctic Peninsula. Most ocean areas have warmed. Because these areas are remote and far away from major cities, it is clear to climatologists that the warming is not due to the influence of pollution from urban areas.
large climate changes in Europe/Near East during the last 15,000 calendar years (note that these dates are in 'real' years not radiocarbon years).
14,500 y.a. - rapid warming and moistening of climates. Rapid deglaciation begins.
13,500 y.a. - climates about as warm and moist as today's
13,000 y.a. 'Older Dryas' cold phase (lasting about 200 years) before a partial return to warmer conditions.
12,800 y.a. (+/- 200 years)- rapid stepwise onset of the intensely cold Younger Dryas. Much drier than present over much of Europe and the Middle East, though wetter-than-present conditions at first prevailed in NW Europe.
11,500 y.a. (+/- 200 years) - Younger Dryas ends suddenly over a few decades, back to relative warmth and moist climates (Holocene, or Isotope Stage 1).
11,500 - 10,500 y.a. - climates possibly still slightly cooler than present-day.
9,000 y.a. - 8,200 y.a. - climates warmer and often moister than today's
about 8,200 y.a. - sudden cool phase lasting about 200 years, about half-way as severe as the Younger Dryas. Wetter-than-present conditions in NW Europe, but drier than present in eastern Turkey.
8,000-4,500 y.a. - climates generally slightly warmer and moister than today's.
(but; at 5,900 y.a. - a possible sudden and short-lived cold phase corresponding to the 'elm decline').
Since about 4,500 y.a. - climates fairly similar to the present
2,600 y.a. - relatively wet/cold event (of unknown duration) in many areas
(but; 1,400 y.a. [536-538 A.D.] wet cold event of reduced tree growth and famine across western Europe and possibly elsewhere).
(Followed by 'Little Ice Age' about 700-200 ya)
The models which have been used to forecast global warming due to
man made emissions of carbon dioxide have ignored the astronomic theory
until very recently and still ignore the radiation theory. This is despite the
fact that the statistical fits of the astronomic and radiation theories are
extremely good and lead to accurate forecasts, whereas the models
backcast historical climate very poorly, forecast no better and are not
statistically verified.
The models assume that carbon dioxide leads and temperature follows. Data
from ice and deep sea cores show the reverse. They suggest that the role of
carbon dioxide is to amplify the effects of the astronomic variables and solar
radiation. There has never been a historical period where CO2 rose
independently of natural drivers, such as variations in solar radiance and
astronomical cycles, which could provide an analogy for the modern period. It
is impossible to sort out from history the independent role of CO2 as too
many other things were going on at the same time, such as changes in the
water and methane content of the atmosphere, the quantity of energy
emitted from the sun and changes in the earth's orbit. It now seems clear
from the evidence of the past 100 years, and spectral calculations, that the
model builders' estimates of CO2 sensitivity are about four times too high.
This means that any changes in temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 will be
at most 0.5 degrees C over the next 100 years, a figure well within the range
of the Little Optimum warming of 900 to 1300 AD, a period of flourishing
agricultural civilizations.
Originally posted by Muaddib
That means that the last time the sun was just as active was in at 853 A.D.
Recent fluctuations in temperature, both upward and downward, are well within the limits observed in nature prior to human influence.
4.) Global temperatures appear to be rising, irrespective of any human influence, as Earth continues to emerge from the Little Ice Age. it is not unreasonable to expect the temperature to rise another 2 to 2.5 degrees Celsius to a level comparable with that of the Medieval Warm Period about 800 years ago
www.bbc.co.uk...
The Earth probably reached its warmest about 5,000 or 6,000 years ago.
www.nasa.gov...
Because these areas are remote and far away from major cities, it is clear to climatologists that the warming is not due to the influence of pollution from urban areas.
Here is a link with information on the cycles of warming and cooling the Earth ahs gone through.
Originally posted by Nygdan
Meaningless, the current warming trend does not track with sun activity.
Originally posted by Nygdan
Well which is it, is the MWP the result of purely sunspot activity, or is it the 'norm' for the holocene and we are just moving to the norm? You just said that its all about sunspots, how can we be recovering from the little ice age when there were decreases in sunspot activity?
Originally posted by Nygdan
Astronomical forcing does not explain the current long term warming trend. Sunspot activity does not explain the current long term warming trend. Recovery from ice ages does not explain the current long term warming trends. THe patterns DO NO match, there is something ELSE causing the warming trend, and it 'just happens' to coincide with a man-made increase in atmospheric concentrations of heat trapping gases.
Originally posted by Muaddib
In fact this is happening in the entire solar system, which is another little fact which some people want to ignore.
[edit on 25-1-2007 by Muaddib]
Originally posted by Agit8dChop
But after thousnads of years of toxins and pollutants added into the atmosphere, what ever 'cycle' we are about to experience again, isnt going to be like the previous.
If you dont believe in global warming, fine...
but when it really goes bad, and i end up floating past you in a rubbber dingy, ill ask you then if you still think its bs
Originally posted by Muaddib
There is data to prove that there are natural causes which coincide with the fluctuation of temperatures on Earth, and have nothing to do with mankind's activity.
Originally posted by grover
Hang it up Muaddib knows everything and is never wrong... only he has the FACTS and anyone who disputes with him is an idiot. I bet he is insufferable drunk.
[edit on 26-1-2007 by grover]
Originally posted by grover
Hang it up Muaddib knows everything and is never wrong... only he has the FACTS and anyone who disputes with him is an idiot. I bet he is insufferable drunk.
[edit on 26-1-2007 by grover]
The Weather Channel’s most prominent climatologist is advocating that broadcast meteorologists be stripped of their scientific certification if they express skepticism about predictions of manmade catastrophic global warming. This latest call to silence skeptics follows a year (2006) in which skeptics were compared to “Holocaust Deniers” and Nuremberg-style war crimes trials were advocated by several climate alarmists.
The Weather Channel’s Heidi Cullen, who hosts the weekly global warming program “The Climate Code,” is advocating that the American Meteorological Society revoke their “Seal of Approval” for any television weatherman who expresses skepticism that human activity is creating a climate catastrophe.
..............
Cullen Featured Advocate of Nuremberg-Style Trials for Climate Skeptics
In addition, Cullen's December 17, 2006 episode of "The Climate Code" TV show, featured a columnist who openly called for Nuremberg-style Trials for climate skeptics. Cullen featured Grist Magazine's Dave Roberts as an eco-expert opining on energy issues, with no mention of his public call to institute what amounts to the death penalty for scientists who express skepticism about global warming.
Cullen's call for suppressing scientific dissent comes at a time when many skeptical scientists affiliated with Universities have essentially been silenced, over fears of loss of tenure and the withdrawal of research grant money. The United Nations Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process has also steadily pushed scientists away who hold inconvenient skeptical views and reject the alarmist conclusions presented in the IPCC's summary for policymakers.
Originally posted by Muaddib
You claimed there was no such trend, i showed you to be wrong
[
But i guess that's "meaningless" also according to you?....
Well sorry to tell you you have been proven wrong by several sources,
In fact this is happening in the entire solar system, which is another little fact which some people want to ignore.
Thousands of years?....
The difference is that there is a lot of data and scientists who have discovered that mankind is not affecting Climate change as much as "a mayority of environmentalists" would like people to believe....
There is data to prove that there are natural causes which coincide with the fluctuation of temperatures on Earth, and have nothing to do with mankind's activity.
Meanwhile there is data that contradicts the alarmists who claim they know for certain it is mankind who is the mayor cause for global warming...
I wonder why the alarmists are so concerned that they want to stop any data which contradicts their position?.....
grover
only he has the FACTS and anyone who disputes with him is an idiot. I bet he is insufferable drunk.
we have a choice... believe the majority of the scientific opinion or the rantings of a blow hard in Wyoming
Originally posted by Nygdan
Please point out where in those sources is shows continuous, anamalously high sunspot activity for the entire length of the warming trend.
You're not going to find it, because it doesn't exist.
The Sun is more active now than it has been for a millennium. The realisation, which comes from a reconstruction of sunspots stretching back 1150 years, comes just as the Sun has thrown a tantrum. Over the last week, giant plumes of have material burst out from our star's surface and streamed into space, causing geomagnetic storms on Earth.
Originally posted by Nygdan
We are all trying to have an adult conversation here about a serious and complex topic. If you have nothing to add, then please don't post.
Earth's Magnetic Field Is Fading
John Roach
for National Geographic News
September 9, 2004
Earth's magnetic field is fading. Today it is about 10 percent weaker than it was when German mathematician Carl Friedrich Gauss started keeping tabs on it in 1845, scientists say.
If the trend continues, the field may collapse altogether and then reverse. Compasses would point south instead of north.
Cosmic rays set climate change on Earth, expert says
Scientist challenges greenhouse-gas theory
Tom Spears, Ottawa Citizen; CanWest News Service
Published: Thursday, March 16, 2006
OTTAWA - Stars, not greenhouse gases, are heating up the Earth.
So says prominent University of Ottawa science professor Jan Veizer.
He knows challenging the accepted climate-change theory may lead to a nasty fight.
It's a politically and economically loaded topic. Yet, he is speaking out about his published research. "Look, maybe I'm wrong," he said. "But I'm saying, at least let's look at this and discuss it.
"Every one of these things (parts of his theory) has its problems. But so does every other model" of how Earth's climate behaves.
Veizer says high-energy rays from distant parts of space are smashing into our atmosphere in ways that make our planet go through warm and cool cycles.
Cosmic rays are hitting us all the time -- a well-known fact. What's new is that researchers are asking what cosmic rays do to our world and its weather.
- Last year, the British science journal Proceedings of the Royal Society published a theory that cosmic rays "unambiguously" form clouds and affect our climate.
- Florida Tech and the University of Florida are jointly investigating whether cosmic rays are the trigger that makes a charged thundercloud let rip with lightning.
- In 2003, scientists from NASA and the University of Kansas suggested that cosmic rays "influence cloud formation, can affect climate and harm live organisms directly via increase of radiation dose," an effect they claim to trace over millions of years of fossil history.
...............
Even in recent times he argues that other cosmic factors can affect our climate as plausibly as carbon dioxide, or more so. The warming of Earth in the past 100 years -- about 0.6 degrees Celsius -- matches a time of the sun's growing intensity, he says.