Macron asks Xi to reason with Russia for Ukraine peace and The Offensive What Happens If It Fails?

In another mash-up of opinions and articles on Ukraine are we headed for negotiations or does a Ukrainian offensive potentially drain Ukraine to point of not having enough troops...and we all know what that may mean. Macron is talking with Xi is this window dressing, or is NATO really pushing for Xi to get Russia to negotiate?

So what are the chances of any of this actually getting talks going, or is it just a stalling tactic? Seeing reports of trenches all across Crimea, in other words, seems Russia is preparing to fight for this territory. All the while we have a rumored Ukrainian offensive in the works, an offensive that isn't just reliant on NATO arms and munitions, but ominously sounds as if this fails Ukraine would likely be low on experienced troops.

Is Crimea negotiable to Ukraine and Zelenskyy?

The first 2 links at the bottom show the importance of Crimea to the Russians. The last one discusses the importance of Ukraine's spring offensive, which sounds like if they do not make any headway there could be cascading problems.


www.reuters.com...

BEIJING, April 6 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron urged China's Xi Jinping on Thursday to reason with close ally Russia and help end the Ukraine war, while Xi responded by saying he hoped the two sides could hold peace negotiations as soon as possible.

In closely-watched talks in Beijing, which also involve EU chief Ursula von der Leyen, Macron said the West must engage Beijing to help end the crisis and prevent 'spiralling' tensions that could split global powers into warring blocs.

"The Russian aggression in Ukraine has dealt a blow to (international) stability," Macron told Xi, standing alongside the Chinese president outside the Great Hall of the People at the start of their meeting.


"I know I can count on you to bring back Russia to reason and everyone back to the negotiating table."

In comments after his meeting with Macron, Xi called for Ukraine and Russia to resume peace talks and find a political solution to the conflict.

France said the discussions between the leaders were "frank and constructive," while China described them as "friendly" and "in-depth".

Macron also asked Xi to press Russia to comply with international rules on non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he will station tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine's neighbour Belarus, a move seen as a dangerous escalation in the bloody year-long conflict.

thehill.com...

New satellite images show Russian trenches across Crimea, indicating Moscow is prepping to defend the area ahead of an anticipated spring offensive from Ukraine, according to a new report from The Washington Post.

The images show miles of trench defenses have been built in just a few weeks, many along bodies of water.

Ukraine has vowed to retake Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014, and Kyiv has said it won’t consider peace talks unless Russia leaves all occupied territory. Crimea is connected to the Ukrainian mainland by a narrow isthmus.

Israeli police raid al-Asqa mosque in Jerusalem for second time on consecutive nights
North Korea warns US, South Korea military drills escalate tension to ‘brink of a nuclear war’
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Crimea last month to mark the ninth anniversary of its annexation from Ukraine, arriving in the peninsula just a day after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest over alleged war crimes. He stressed the strategic importance of holding onto the area.

The international community broadly condemned Russia’s annexation of Crimea back in 2014, and the U.S. has long held that the peninsula is still Ukrainian territory, though the Biden administration has been ambiguous on the Crimea question in relation to eventual peace talks.

Russia’s war on Ukraine has waged on for more than a year, and Ukraine now appears to be prepping for a spring counteroffensive that could begin as soon as this month.

www.csis.org...

www.strategypage.com...

www.19fortyfive.com...

Ukraine’s Coming Offensive: What Happens If It Fails?
The viability of the Ukrainian state could well rest upon the results of this offensive. What obviously concerns Kyiv is that if the offensive fails, they could lose the war. What should worry Ukraine’s leaders the most, however, is that Ukraine could win this offensive battle, but as a result, lose the war anyway.

Ukraine is widely reported to be in the final stages of preparing for a spring offensive against Russia. Whether it ends in success or failure, this will likely mark Ukraine’s last chance to launch a large-scale offensive operation for a half year or more. This is true regardless of how many NATO weapons and ammunition are subsequently delivered.

After this operation, Ukraine will have expended the majority of its remaining Western-trained and experienced combat formations. Russia, on the other hand, still has substantial manpower resources from which to draw, as well as an industrial capacity that is producing war material now and will increase its output over time. This assessment stands in stark contrast to what many military experts have led Western publics to believe.

Western analysts overwhelmingly base their claims of Ukraine’s chances to drive back Russian forces on Kyiv’s acquisition of modern NATO equipment and an upsurge in NATO training for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is debatable how much NATO weapons and quick training can improve Ukraine’s offensive capacity, but even if the improvement is as notable as advertised, few Western analysts have addressed the most crucial question: What comes after the offensive?

WEF-Macron is exactly copying the behaviour of his secret love. WEF-Merkel:

Problems at home, play the hero everybody only can love in the world ( because of always travelling with huge money cases as gifts). He wants to distract from the domestic disaster that one causes as a WEF agent at home. Sees his fellow female WEF agents in other nations disappear faster then they were created by the WEF and now acts as if he would care for the average people of the Ukraine, that little hobby-napoleon.

Spring offensive?

If there are not somewhere huge, i mean really huge fields with ukrainian soldiers, with weapons, ammo, with morale growing on them, somehow hidden from all spy satellites around planet earth, who should do that offensive and with what? Most "the Ukraine supporting" nations have cut down their support for the Ukraine, those with the biggest mouths delivered almost nothing or only their old useless military stuff to create space for more useful, modern weapons.

Only two idiot-nations left who still pump endless amounts of money on a almost daily routine into that corrupt Bandera loving barrel without a bottom are the USA and it´s dog on the leash, Germany. Germany because as it seems we are not really sovereign, never have been since 1945 (according to high-ranking german politicians) and obviously have to do what the USA wants us to do, even if that means that we have to break our own neck.

About the reasons of the USA i only could speculate but i have some ideas...

The others on top, excluding the USA and Germany, know exactly that this is nothing more than a really evil theater play and are not longer willing to spend their money and material to the Ukraine for that sh!tshow to fool the people.

Meanwhile there are reports that Selenskyi will retreat from Bachmuth and is ready to talk with Putin. But only after the "great spring offensive", about Crimea. But first he is ready to sacrifice the last few ukrainians who arent dead, crippled, who didn´t flee, who didn´t pay to be not send to the front. These soldiers and materials for that great spring offensive must grow somewhere on huge fields as i guess, ready to be harvested soon.

The WEF knows well why it installed an actor and comedian as president of that sh!thole. Is this only megalomania, is it drug consume, is he forced to believe that he could win anything, that Selenskyi comedian in his BDU who is ready to sacrifice the last surviving ukrainian soldiers for whatever. Or is he just like what he looks and smells like, a tool to fulfill the WEF-NWO agenda?

I strictly think so!

It does sound like WW2 again as NATO grabs Finland. It was Russia that held Crimea against the Nazi's for a while. Crimea did fall into Nazi hands for a bit, but that all fell apart with Russia moving into Berlin and recapturing Crimea that time. Russia has spent enough blood there to have a reasonable claim to the place.

Preparing for this Ukraine mess to increase while Sleepy Joe is at the wheel is reasonable. I don't see Ukraine going the way it has if Trump was still in the hot seat.

a reply to: putnam6


Ummm...Macron is a pimple on the ass of the world...Le Zit...

Apparently he's forgotten the US stationing Nukes in the Netherregions...Germania...Turkey...Bell gee ummm...and the Italics...

Kind of a lend lease of nuclear proportion...

Also...Russia has stated from the start of the conflict that they are ready to negotiate...as long as Ukraine gives up its NATO and EU aspirations...demilitarizes...denazifies...and most recently recognizes the reality on the ground as per the Luhansk... Donetsk...Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as well as Crimean secessions...and integrations into Russia proper...

However...Macron is still...Le Zit...



YouSir

originally posted by: kwakakev
I don't see Ukraine going the way it has if Trump was still in the hot seat.

Ummm...sure it would...Trump carried on the Obama doctrine of arming Ukraine...and said and did absolutely nothing about the shelling of and subsequent killing of 15,000 civilians in Donetsk and Luhansk...

So Trump is just as culpable as Obama and Biden...

His bluster of solving the issue in a day is comical...and farcical...the only way that happens is if he forces Ukraine to accede to all of Russia's demands...






YouSir

a reply to: kwakakev

It does sound like WW2 again as NATO grabs Finland.

NATO hasn't 'grabbed' Finland.
Finland chose to approach NATO for membership as it fears a Russian attack, again.
Their choice.

I don't see Ukraine going the way it has if Trump was still in the hot seat.

Why?
What would Trump have done so differently?

a reply to: YouSir

Trump ain't up to his neck in Ukraine corruption like Biden is. Trump makes one phone call about then gets hit with more impeachment nonsense.

A long drawn out, messy and ongoing war ain't Trumps style. If someone needs a good blowing up Trump will get it done, as for dragging a nation through hell he does not get off on it like Biden does.

a reply to: YouSir
Ah but that's the problem. The European countries in NATO having US nuclear missiles based in their countries. I literally don't care how much the US puts in the NATO pot, so don't come the bleeding heart with "but we pay for your defence" BS.
In simple terms if the US went nuclear free it wouldn't be a target from any country wanting to initiate a nuclear conflict. They would target where the retaliating missiles would come from. And now you have European countries realising just who is calling the shots and it aint Europe. Not only that but the US has proven to be a back stabber with the Nordstream, inflicting huge burdens on Europe that they are supposed to be friends with. As the saying goes "with friends like that you don't need enemies". This conflict could see the break up of NATO and the US sure as hell doesn't want that to happen, as European countries can now see just who is in the firing line and it aint the US.

originally posted by: kwakakev
a reply to: YouSir

Trump ain't up to his neck in Ukraine corruption like Biden is. Trump makes one phone call about then gets hit with more impeachment nonsense.

A long drawn out, messy and ongoing war ain't Trumps style. If someone needs a good blowing up Trump will get it done, as for dragging a nation through hell he does not get off on it like Biden does.

Ummm...there's no logic in your Trump scenario...who would he blow up...?

Russia...?

Are you ill...?

I voted for Trump in 2016...one of the reasons is him stating he would not get into any conflicts...would pull all the troops home and work to make the US an industrial powerhouse again...

Then he fires cruise missiles into Syria because of...trumped up lies of Syria gassing the rebels...

I'm done with Trump...



YouSir

a reply to: crayzeed


Ummm...Precisely...I couldn't have stated it better than you have...The Europeans are vassal states to US imperialism...

Blinken and Nod blink...and Europe clicks heels and goose steps in unison...


It is indeed...Clown world...

"This way...to the egress"...





YouSir

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: kwakakev

It does sound like WW2 again as NATO grabs Finland.

NATO hasn't 'grabbed' Finland.
Finland chose to approach NATO for membership as it fears a Russian attack, again.
Their choice.

I don't see Ukraine going the way it has if Trump was still in the hot seat.

Why?
What would Trump have done so differently?

That was my understanding that Finland joining NATO has been in the works for quite a while, even Putin didn't seem shocked or concerned.

As for the Trump scenario, the theory goes Russia/Putin wouldn't be as certain of his response as they were with Biden's

Ukraine was different, he thought he had bought enough Ukrainian officials off. Read this article, it all fits and he did indeed sack these two guys mentioned very soon afterward. Been trying to debunk this theory since the beginning

it's a semi-plausible theory because Russia sent in unproven conscripts almost as if they expected light resistance, among other clues that none of this was expected.

www.thelowdownblog.com...

Mar 21, 2022
Is Putin's Invasion Failing Because Russian Intelligence Embezzled Billions Intended As Bribes For Ukrainians?

It's even wilder than the headline suggests. The FSB embezzled every dime of the billions in bribe money intended for Ukraine, which they figured was a low risk crime because no one - not even Putin - would be crazy enough to invade Ukraine, the largest country in Europe, and the bribe money was in cash so there was no accounting. Meaning no one would miss the dough.
But then Putin announced he WAS going to invade. And the military made clear it wouldn't do so unless the Ukrainian military had been bought off so it wouldn't fight, which the FSB had assured everyone had been taken care of. But since they hadn't been bought off, the FSB had a big problem. Which they attempted to solve by leaking the invasion news to the US (hence Biden's preternaturally superb intelligence on the invasion, including assassination attempts on Zelensky) hoping that would dissuade Putin. And the rest, as they say, is history. JL

Mary Frances Fitzgerald reports in The Times:

Sergey Beseda, head of the FSB 5th-Branch (Ukraine portfolio), has been arrested, along with his deputy, Anatoly Bolyukh for embezzlement from the state. The whole of the FSB 5th-Branch is under criminal investigation and many are also under arrest for embezzlement. For years Putin has been placing billions of dollars into the 5th-Branch budget for bribing Ukrainian military, secret service, internal security officers, and politicians. (But) Beseda and Anatoly Bolyukh have been embezzling every dime of the bribe budget, billions of dollars. And everyone in the 5th-Branch was getting a piece of the action. It was the perfect crime as spy bribes are paid in cash and (they thought) not even Putin was crazy enough to invade Ukraine
I am going to tell you a story which explains how and why Vladimir Putin (and the Russian military) so horribly misjudged the Ukrainian war, a war, the outcome of which, will change the future of our planet Earth.

It is well known that Sergey Beseda, head of the FSB 5th-Branch (Ukraine portfolio), has been arrested, along with his deputy, Anatoly Bolyukh. (The FSB is basically the former KGB.) (Beseda is a very high-ranking spy, his rank the equivalent of a U.S. 4-star general, Bolyukh a 3-star.)

It is also known that Beseda and Bolyukh were arrested for something that at first glance seems rather strange--embezzlement from the state. Publicly unknown, but interesting indeed is, the whole of the FSB 5th-Branch is under criminal investigation and many are under arrest for...embezzlement from the state.

Unknown to most is that for years Vladimir Putin has been placing billions of dollars into the 5th-Branch budget for the express and sole purpose of bribing Ukrainian officials, that is, military officers, Ukrainian secret service officers, Ukrainian internal security officers, and politicians. After Yanukovych was ejected in 2014, Putin got serious about bringing Ukraine back into the fold.

Here is the fun part. I am told by people I know (who are still in the game) that for years Sergey Beseda and Anatoly Bolyukh have been embezzling every dime of the bribe budget--literally billions of dollars. And everyone in the 5th-Branch was getting a piece of the action, all the way down to the field operatives who were supposed to be doing all the bribing. It was the perfect crime, spy bribes are paid in cash, and nobody, not even Vladimir Putin was crazy enough to invade Ukraine so nobody in the FSB was ever going to try to collect on the bribes that were never paid.

And this went on for years--since at least 2014.

Until, late last year.

Sometime in the October-November 2021 time-frame, Vladimir Putin called a meeting with a select few people, including Beseda and Bolyukh, and told them that Russia was going to invade Ukraine.

To have seen the look on the faces of Beseda and Bolyukh, because once again, none of the preparatory Ukrainian bribes had ever been paid. Putin had been given reports saying they had been paid, but in reality, not a penny had ever been spent on bribing--Ukrainians.

And as the story goes, Vladimir Putin was depending on--actually counting on--all these bribes having been paid. Because during the meeting, Putin discounted any resistance from Ukraine, saying all he had to do was kick on the door and the whole country would fall--in two days--because for years the FSB 5th-Branch had been doing such a good job at bribing Ukrainians.

I shi* you not.

The Russian army and air force signed off on the plan, with the assurance that the Ukrainian military was bribed and would not fight. The plan even included sending Russian police officers in the first wave of attack (to direct and control traffic in Kyiv) because according to the FSB 5th-Branch there was not going to be any resistance.

Beseda and Bolyukh (indeed the whole of the FSB 5th-Branch) now had a problem. A very big problem indeed.

What do spies do when they have a problem (that they want to keep secret from the boss) and they can`t solve all by themselves? They go talk to other spies and ask if they will help them solve their problem. And that is exactly what Sergey Beseda and Anatoly Bolyukh did.

It is well known that US intelligence (CIA) had very fine-grained, exact, precise, perfect, word-for-word intelligence on Putin`s invasion plans very early on in the game. Yep. You guessed it.

The perfect way to keep the secret about the whole FSB embezzlement scheme was to make certain there was no invasion. And the best way to make sure there was no invasion was to tell the CIA that there was going to be an invasion. And that is exactly what happened. Sergey Beseda and Anatoly Bolyukh gave it up. All of it. And kept giving it up, hoping beyond hope that once the secret was out, Vladimir Putin would call the Ukrainian invasion off.

And this is why President Biden (the CIA and MI-6) had months of advance warning and a crystal clear view into Putin`s invasion plans, the FSB 5th-Branch, almost everybody in the 5th-Branch was mainlining intelligence into CIA/MI-6 in a vain attempt to save their lives.

originally posted by: Freeborn

Why?
What would Trump have done so differently?

It most likely wouldn't have happened at all. Trump knowing that the real existential threat ain't Russia was going to do some mutually beneficial projects with Russia for one. But no---something about some hookers peeing on a bed and some other shizzle.

Now, Putin and Xi have partnered. what a bunch of maroons some of you are. I don't know who it's gonna be worse on---Us or you over there in Europe with scalawags like Macron going backdoor.

a reply to: YouSir

there's no logic in your Trump scenario...who would he blow up...?

ISIS went pretty quite shortly after Trump got on. There was also some Mother of all bombs event with some bunker somewhere that Trump was happy to have on the media.

originally posted by: crayzeed
a reply to: YouSir
Ah but that's the problem. The European countries in NATO having US nuclear missiles based in their countries. I literally don't care how much the US puts in the NATO pot, so don't come the bleeding heart with "but we pay for your defence" BS.
In simple terms if the US went nuclear free it wouldn't be a target from any country wanting to initiate a nuclear conflict. They would target where the retaliating missiles would come from. And now you have European countries realising just who is calling the shots and it aint Europe. Not only that but the US has proven to be a back stabber with the Nordstream, inflicting huge burdens on Europe that they are supposed to be friends with. As the saying goes "with friends like that you don't need enemies". This conflict could see the break up of NATO and the US sure as hell doesn't want that to happen, as European countries can now see just who is in the firing line and it aint the US.

Respectfully # 1 thanks for the comments, As an American I completely understand both Europeans and Brits may have different and diverse opinions. Just discussing this, with no ill intent

It's no secret America's mantra has always been it's always better to force the war to be anywhere but in the US. Geography helps with the equation as well

As for the missiles placed in Europe, they aren't snuck in under your leaders' noses? In other words, you knew they were a snake when you let them in. But you did it anyway, likely because somebody got a huge kickback or stock tip, or just a favor in another area. We would have to go back and look at the news contemporaneous to the times. As well as there is certainly some military and strategic value to having them so close to Russia's borders. My theory is Europe had the target put on their back with missiles in their country because they are close enough that it could actually hit some prime Russian nuclear assets before launch while they are still in thier silos

a reply to: putnam6

That is a theory that I certainly wouldn't dismiss out of hand, it would definitely explain a lot of what has happened since Putin's misguided invasion began.

After reading you're post I did a quick search on Sergey Beseda and Anatoly Bolyukh and it seems there's a bit of confusion as to their current well being/status.
It was reported that both had been arrested and Beseda and even been moved to the notorious Lefortovo Prison but recent reports coming from the USA suggest that the CIA believe he has hasn't been demoted or arrested and is still in his position as Head of FSB 5th-Branch.

So that casts at least some doubt on the theory....but as I said, I certainly wouldn't discount it without doing more research etc.

And it in no way goes to explaining Putin's true motivations behind wanting to invade Ukraine.
We all have our own theories on that.

originally posted by: YouSir
a reply to: putnam6


Ummm...Macron is a pimple on the ass of the world...Le Zit...

Apparently he's forgotten the US stationing Nukes in the Netherregions...Germania...Turkey...Bell gee ummm...and the Italics...

Kind of a lend lease of nuclear proportion...

Also...Russia has stated from the start of the conflict that they are ready to negotiate...as long as Ukraine gives up its NATO and EU aspirations...demilitarizes...denazifies...and most recently recognizes the reality on the ground as per the Luhansk... Donetsk...Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as well as Crimean secessions...and integrations into Russia proper...

However...Macron is still...Le Zit...

YouSir

While I don't possess your venom, verbiage, or vernacular, just because I'm not vénère doesn't mean I don't fully recognize the youthful skin condition that accurately describes France's President. Upon further pondering of this, Id suggest adding bloody festering leZit

Pas de souci

a reply to: The GUT

We'll never know what would have happened if Trump had still been POTUS.
The fact is he wasn't - some believe he was/is in possession of some sort of superpower that was going to cure not just the US but the whole world of all its problems. Others believe he was/is a hopeless incompetent who didn't have a clue and had nothing but empty soundbites and ego driven rhetoric.

But it's irrelevant.

Trump says he could solve the problem 'in a day' - well do it then.
Or at least publicly state how he would do it and let others act on his advice.

He'd certainly go up in my estimation if he were to do that....but to my knowledge he's never stated specifically what he would do.

I may be wrong?

a reply to: crayzeed

Doesn't Trump want the US to pull out of NATO?

The fact that Xi and Putin have had a conversation doesn't mean diddly squat because both countries are downward spiraling failing states. Macron does not speak for anyone but himself, and one wonders at his motivation considering his own country is in chaos at the moment. Wondering what "would have happened" had Trump still been in power is largely irrelevant as that never transpired. Putin could stop this war in a minute. All he has to do is withdraw his troops. He's not going to do that, of course, so the choices available are that Russia actually overwhelms Ukraine with NATO doing nothing, or Putin is knocked out of power.

Now I agree with Putin that Ukranians are basically Russians with an accent, but they have developed a national identity of their own since their independence, and they have proven their worth on the battlefield. So the bottom line is that Putin has managed to shoot himself in the foot over and over again. The sad thing is that Russia was doing rather well. But now their economy is ruined and set back about fifty years, and the Russian military has been exposed as a paper tiger and laughable force. Iraq could have beaten them easily. All the West has to do is wait. Russia will fall apart all by itself.

The recent talk about possibly conceding Crimea might be Zelenskyy finally starting to accept the fact that Crimea is not going to be re-taken. Most of the population of Crimea never wanted to be part of Ukraine to begin with -- they were basically given to Ukraine in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, with no regard for how the Crimeans themselves felt about it. If you look at the results of the last few elections, they voted strongly for the same pro-Russian parties that the eastern provinces supported.

And sorry, but that counter-offensive for Bakmut seems to be MIA, along with those Tiger tanks were supposed to make such a huge difference. I just looked at the most recent map on LiveUAmap.com, and Russia now controls roughly 3/4 of the city, with Ukraine only controlling just the Western outskirts.

The most straightforward interpretation of these things is that, no, Ukraine doesn't have the manpower left to keep it up.

And, to burst another bubble, you need to realize that the talk about Russia's economy collapsing is just propaganda. China, India, and now Japan are buying Russian oil & gas. The latest country to announce plans to ditch the petrodollar is none other than Mexico. As far as I've heard, Russia doesn't have any huge "Too Big to Fail" banks that are on the verge of failing (see: Credit Suisse, UBS, DeutchBank, etc...) And I haven't even mentioned yet that the United States appears to be on the verge of a second Civil War. Sorry, but it looks to me like we're the countries that are in the process of collapsing, not Russia.