Bakhmut about to fall.

originally posted by: WhatItIs

Earlier this month, Western officials estimated between 20,000 and 30,000 Russian troops had been killed or injured in Bakhmut since last summer.
www.bbc.com...

When is Russia going to control Bakhmut? And why is it with the lives and health of 20,000 to 30,000 Russians?

The question nobody dares to ask is, how many troops has Ukraine lost? Because if the loss ratio is in Russia's favor, then it's in their interest to drag out this siege as long as possible.

Also, that relief convoy that Zelynski promised seems to have disappeared.

Also, while we're all focusing on Bakhmut, I just saw some items on the Ukraine Liveuamap that indicate the city of Avdiivk, a bit further south, is about to fall. One report says that "municipal services" are being evacuated from that city (I'm not sure what they mean by that; city leaders, perhaps?), and another says that the Ukrainian authorities are prohibiting civilians from entering the city.

originally posted by: AndyFromMichigan
The question nobody dares to ask is, how many troops has Ukraine lost? Because if the loss ratio is in Russia's favor, then it's in their interest to drag out this siege as long as possible.

We don't know the loss ratio of course. All we have are things like intelligence estimates, which have said the ratio is at least five to one, and some have claimed up to seven to one.
Russia loses 5 times more soldiers than Ukraine in battles for Bakhmut

Source: CNN referring to a NATO military official familiar with the North Atlantic Alliance's intelligence data

Details: NATO intelligence estimates that Russian troops lost at least five fighters for every Ukrainian soldier who died defending Bakhmut.

The official stressed that the ratio of five to one is a reasonable estimate based on intelligence data. He added that Ukraine also suffered significant losses defending the city.

Another source claimed the ratio may bave been higher than 5 to 1 before the Russians actually entered Bakhmut, but now it has dropped a lot since they are fighting building to building inside Bakhmut. Perhaps in the city it's not such a big ratio, but I think Russians are still losing significantly more outside the city, to the northwest and southwest where they are trying to encircle Bakhmut and so far, failing to do so.

Also, while we're all focusing on Bakhmut, I just saw some items on the Ukraine Liveuamap that indicate the city of Avdiivk, a bit further south, is about to fall. One report says that "municipal services" are being evacuated from that city (I'm not sure what they mean by that; city leaders, perhaps?), and another says that the Ukrainian authorities are prohibiting civilians from entering the city.

I'm not sure what "about to fall" even means anymore. Some people have been claiming Bakhmut was about to fall for months. Here's an update on Bakhmut. In summary, Russians are still making incremental gains inside the city, perhaps approaching control of 50% of the city, but they are failing in their attempts to encircle the city so far, at a high cost in loss of soldiers.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Indeed. This thread is not ageing very well.

originally posted by: camain
a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

yep, I don't think there will be a clear winner. eventually both will run out of steam, or the west will stop sending weapons which will force ukraine to make peace. there are all kinds of dynamics at play here with many different outcomes.

Camain

I think you are partly correct. But if the and when the US tires of this and throws Ukraine to the wolves, I doubt there will be any "making peace" as much as an unconditional surrender. Unless the Chinese can step in and broker something. After Nordstream and the way the west treated Putin re the Minsk agreements, he probably isn't going to negotiate with the west or its puppet (Ukraine) if he gets a whiff of military success.

a reply to: Quintilian

That's looking like a big "if".

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Ukraine has lost many soldiers and tanks that is something that Volodymyr Zelenskyy govt refuses to acknowledge.

It was a mistake for the US gov and Rhinos during 2013 to push Ukraine into a war with Russia.


I am sure senators like Sen Lindsey Graham and others like him are happy with the war for their profits
"defense contractors"


I dont believe 440 tanks from the Western Countries are going to change the outcome.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the least videos seems to be in a white room again.
Is Zelensky Running?

originally posted by: vNex92
I dont believe 440 tanks from the Western Countries are going to change the outcome.

Yes, I totally agree.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the ultimate end-game of total Ukrainian removal, was a doomed endeavour. A fantasy dreamt up by a sad old Putin, who had started to believe his own propaganda.

But 400 Western tanks, properly employed, will seriously ruin someone's day.

a reply to: Grenade

11 days late but Russia are now claiming control of the city. The Ukrainians appear to be retreating West as expected.

originally posted by: Grenade
a reply to: Grenade

11 days late but Russia are now claiming control of the city. The Ukrainians appear to be retreating West as expected.

If this is real, control of what?


m.youtube.com...

Glorious victory

I’m Putin and I’m here to help Russian speaking people. And stop the Nazis from doing anything destructive…

a reply to: WhatItIs

Control of the territory which is Bakhmut city. I never claimed anything like a glorious victory, just stating the Russians now control the city, more than 75% of it.

Advising of the tactical situation hardly makes me a Putin loving Russian cheerleader. Too many people in this thread putting their bias before the facts.

originally posted by: Grenade
a reply to: WhatItIs

Control of the territory which is Bakhmut city. I never claimed anything like a glorious victory, just stating the Russians now control the city, more than 75% of it.

Advising of the tactical situation hardly makes me a Putin loving Russian cheerleader. Too many people in this thread putting their bias before the facts.

I think I was trying to draw the irony of “the victory”.

a reply to: Grenade

And only time will show if holding this “no man’s lands” is really a victory of actually taking over the Ukrainian defenses….

originally posted by: Grenade
a reply to: WhatItIs

Control of the territory which is Bakhmut city. I never claimed anything like a glorious victory, just stating the Russians now control the city, more than 75% of it.

Advising of the tactical situation hardly makes me a Putin loving Russian cheerleader. Too many people in this thread putting their bias before the facts.

And there we have it, pretty much anything the MSM reports and repeats verbatim one can know the opposite to be true.

Their mental kung-fu no good.

a reply to: WhatItIs

Nobody called it a victory other than yourself.

originally posted by: vNex92
Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the least videos seems to be in a white room again.
Is Zelensky Running?

Why might you think that?

a reply to: Grenade

I'd call it a "Pyrrhic Victory".

originally posted by: Grenade
a reply to: WhatItIs

Nobody called it a victory other than yourself.

And evidently you don’t understand sarcasm aimed at the situation.

a reply to: WhatItIs

I do, it just doesn't seem appropriate unless someone in the thread had previously been cheer-leading for Russia, which they haven't.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Looks like Bakhmut has fallen.

No gloating, just facts.