NEWS: Putin's Chief of Staff Warns Russia May Collapse

In a sobering warning, Vladmir Putin's Chief of Staff, Dmitry Medvedev, cautioned that if political bickering continues unchecked the Russian state may collapse. He says a collapse at this point in time would make the dissolution of the Soviet Union look like "a Kindergarten part." Medvedev's chief fear is that the Russian elite may lose control over the country, and if that happens, the resulting internal chaos will reach out far past the border. Many believe Russia is a stabilizing factor in the troubled region, and if that brake is released, the surrounding areas could all tumble together into civil war and violence. Others see Russia as a meddler in the affairs of other sovereign states, and would be thrilled to see them go.



This is an interesting interview coming out. It is, in my opinion, one of two things. Either it is a ploy to increase support for the central power structure, or it is a 'showing of the hand' of a group of politicians who have been under increasing pressure to modernize the Russian state.

If it is a ploy, it may be a desperate one. The Russian elite have immense power in their country, and indeed across the entire region, but they are stilll susceptible to popular pressure and outside influence. This might be a lasts ditch effort to maintain the status quo, in the face of widespread rebellion and dissatisfaction on the part of the people.

If it is an accidental slip up, I would be very surprised. Putin is a strategist, first and foremost. It's hard for me to believe he simply wasn't aware of Medvedev's statement coming up. I think he's come too far and sacrificed too much to let it all fall apart at this point. Time will tell, and Putin's reaction to the published interview will speak volumes.

You are right in guessing it's a ploy to further secure the centralized power of the toxic Putin's regime. We all heard the doomsday stories before, for precisely same reason.

There is so little real freedom in Russia I can't imagine any forces being able to accomplish anything significant.

Right now Russia is dying off, and the day people take power back, if ever, I'll celebrate and get real drunk like only Russians can do.

I think the Soviet collapse was a ploy actually. It allowed Russia to centralize their power, slash their spending on social maintenance, and consolidate power away from the unstable buffer states. This is likely another false alarm, a sort of test to see what happens, perhaps a decoy to embolden Russia's enemies to identify and expediate their elimination.

I'd be really surprised if the Russian state collapsed for real, it just seems like they have too many resources, too much power, and too many lucrative contracts. They've got a hell of a lot of oil, and a lot of very good weapons systems for export to places like China, Venezuela, India, and other states.

So, yeah, it's probably a ploy. We'll see how it all plays out though.

In many senses, the collapse has already happened. Russia exists in the name only. Housing and medical care have become unaffordable to most. There is a small elite that enjoys really good life -- just go visit most expensive ski resorts in the Alps during the peak season and see who's buying most Phillippe Patek and other jewlery and drink the most $100 a bottle wine.

Meanwhile, the country is dying off. The military don't get enough new tech and even fuel to fly their planes for practice. The oil money, where the hell is it... Ahhhh, the Phillipp Patek shopping habit...

aelita
I think that's true for the most part, but since the Russian state is primarily controlled by elements of the organized crime and inteligence services, there's a lot of deception being utilized. It's certain that the Russian people are suffering, but so is everybody! Look at American citizens, and for the most part, they can't afford one or more necessities because of job cuts and outsourcing and inflation.

The Russian powerful continue to enjoy the lifestyle to which they've become accustomed, and because it's no longer a communist country, nobody can give them any crap about it. Remember, capitalism REWARDS those who are greedy and selfish. Welcome to the wonderful world of the future, where the useless eaters eat no longer, the global elite bounce between high class resorts and militarized city-states.

There may be hope yet for Russia. They got resources, they just need to make sure they don't get profited on by others. That's what the Yukos thing was about, the Russian state simply couldn't afford to let another state take control over the oil resources that are so critical to the operation and maintenance of the country.

I also think Putin cares deeply about Russia, about his heritage and his nationality. I don't think he's the monster many make him out to be, and I don't think he's in the game just for personal rewards. He seems like a fiery nationalist, and wants what's best for Russia now and in the future. I'm not saying he's a fluffy little bunny, but his priorities aren't completely self serving.

Well, well.... First Gorbachev, now this man....

The Kremlin/Putin is just waiting for an excuse to go back to the old communist days of the U.S.S.R.

We have lately seen what the Kremlin does to those who do not follow their orders and are pro-democratic. Now this man is saying they should "keep in check" the bickering to avoid the collapse....

The excuse and the call to consolidate the power once more for Russia has been issued publicly now by two official figures of the Kremlin. Well, one of them used to be an official.

I guess it won't be long for this consolidation of power to occur once more. The iron curtain seems to be slowly rolling over Russia, again.

[edit on 4-4-2005 by Muaddib]

muadibb
By most measurements the process is well under way, if not almost complete. They're on top of their game, former KGB, I mean..c'mon. He's not stupid, he knows he can't compete on even field with the other established democracies, because they persist in manipulation and sowing the seeds of rebellion. Ukraine and Georgia, Chechnya and Bosnia showed that pretty clearly.

Putin won't sell out his country though, I don't think you should compare him to Gorby.

That guy would have lined up his grandmothers and aunts and shot them just for a Madison Ave. shopping spree.

WyrdeOne, that I know of the US still sends the $6.5 Billion a year as aid to Russia... it is the Russian elite who unfortunately are using this money for their own selfish reasons, and Putin is among the elite.


[edit on 4-4-2005 by Muaddib]

Putin doesn't want to restore the Communism in his country.

It's a post-Communist regime which is susprisingly oppressive, that he cares about.

If somebody wanted to rebuild something in the spirit of mid-80 socialist system in Russia, I'd say go for it. It was much better for an average Joe, oops I meant Ivan.

Originally posted by Aelita
Putin doesn't want to restore the Communism in his country.

It's a post-Communist regime which is susprisingly oppressive, that he cares about.

If somebody wanted to rebuild something in the spirit of mid-80 socialist system in Russia, I'd say go for it. It was much better for an average Joe, oops I meant Ivan.

Aelita, just a question. We have heard reports that there is still anti-American propaganda being used in Russia, and now more than ever. Have you seen this happening where you live? Are you still living in Russia?

Well, that's two questions.

[edit on 4-4-2005 by Muaddib]

Originally posted by Muaddib
Aelita, just a question. We have heard reports that there is still anti-American propaganda being used in Russia, and now more than ever. Have you seen this happening where you live? Are you still living in Russia?

I left Russia a long time ago. Yes, I think there is an officially approved anti-American sentiment in some part of the media. It's indirect, though. It's more of a part of the fortress mentality that the regime is employing.

The only thing I'm worried about this is the nuclear arsenal. Russia's capability to keep tabs on its nuclear weapons and material is already questionable, another revolution could lead to a very dangerous situation on this front.

Originally posted by djohnsto77
The only thing I'm worried about this is the nuclear arsenal. Russia's capability to keep tabs on its nuclear weapons and material is already questionable, another revolution could lead to a very dangerous situation on this front.

Nah. It can only get better at this point

dj makes an excellent point. One of the chief drama events of the Soviet Union's collapse was how to deal with the enormous stockpile of radiological, chemical, and biological weapons just gathering dust in government warehouses and bomb depots

In the case of another collapse, I imagine the military would take possession and become a sort of de-facto caretaker of the facilities and munitions until an international disposal oversight team could be formed and dispatched.

Muadibb
I wasn't aware that we sent anywhere near that much. Do you have any documentation? I know they receive some aid, mostly to dismantle weapons if I'm not mistaken. If they receive the money, there are surely international protocols for itemizing expenditures to insure the money gets where it needs to. Besides, the Oligarchs aren't short of money, they have plenty. They aren't suffering under the new system, or at least, the Russian oligarchs aren't suffering. Foreign power brokers have been politely, and not so politely, shown the door. Foreign investment is still encouraged, but any industry integral to the functioning of the state must be owned at least 51% by a native Russian.

Again, we saw this rise out of the Yukos debacle.

WyrdeOne, question or two:
Do you feel that this Russian talk of the 'possible collapse' of Russia may be a side effect or attributed to the Ukrainian, Kyrgyzstan, and possible Belarus "revolutions"?

Putin has been actively consolidating his position and power. As such, I think that there is always a 'possibility' but I also feel that the likelihood of such a "collapse" taking place is remote, though if the history of Russia is investigated, "collapse" has happened on numerous occasions.




seekerof

Seekerof
Yeah, I do think this statement is a result of increased pressure to either drop the hammer or release the bonds. There are two schools of thought, and they're competing for Putin's attention at the Cabinet level. Some of his staff want to essentially remove all control from the former soviet holdings and let them crumble (if only to say "I told you so" and bolster support from the other republics fearful of catastrophe), the rest think the control and manipulation of those states (particularly the resources and manufacturing/industrial capability) is critical to the Russian state's survival.

Ukraine is an excellent example, because losing Ukraine means losing more than a political ally. It means losing factories, pipelines, refineries, and lots, I mean LOTS, of weapons available for use on short notice. The Ukraine is also the site of most Russian space launches if I'm not mistaken, and while the people are unhappy with the pollution this causes, the launch area is critical to maintaining and expanding the satellite fleet. I think Putin pulled a really neat trick with Ukraine (in terms of political strategy).

He set up one candidate as overtly pro-Russia, while positioning another candidate as overtly pro-West. The whole poisoning thing was a double cross I think, it got the people behind Russia's candidate in my opinion. I think it was a good old fashioned bait and switch. They put out the good guy and the bad guy, pretended to back the bad guy (with predictable responses from a population long tired of Russian manipulation of their affairs, and then when the good guy won, they immediately 'mended fences' and proceeded with business as usual.)

If I was in his Cabinet I would be advising a measure of both. There are certain resources and capabilities vital to the continued survival of Russia, independent of Western manipulation and European market pressure. He also needs these capabilities to play in the same waters as China, he needs something to offer them in order to benefit from their partnership. Weapons manufacturing facilities, oil processing/transport infrastructure, and shipping (warm water ports) are necessary components - letting them go would be state suicide in my opinion.

People are happiest when they perceive themselves as free, but they don't necessarily have to BE free to achieve that emotional state. If Putin can continue to control perceptions, he will continue to be in a position to advance his agenda of a strong Russian state. The time for overt manipulation of the former soviet states has ended, I think. The time for covert manipulation and control is here. I wouldn't be surprised if some fake antagonism cropped up just to bolster the American meddlers into overextending and showing their hand. Then Putin will likely chop it off and continue the subtle game of manipulating public perception.

He has to make it so miserable, people desire a return to the Russian fold. I think that process is well underway.

Georgia is a little more complicated than Ukraine. I think the balls are still all up in the air right now.

Edit:I hope I've answered your question, do let me know if I've been unclear. Looking back I fear I rambled a little too much. Lemme know.



[edit on 4-4-2005 by WyrdeOne]

[edit on 4-4-2005 by WyrdeOne]

Originally posted by WyrdeOne
Ukraine is an excellent example, because losing Ukraine means losing more than a political ally. It means losing factories, pipelines, refineries, and lots, I mean LOTS, or weapons available for use on short notice.

If you mean recent election, Russia hasn't lost anything at this time, as everything there was already Ukranian.

The Ukraine is also the site of most Russian space launches if I'm not mistaken,

It was not. The launch from Plesetsk and Baikonur.

and while the people are unhappy with the pollution this causes, the space station is critical to maintaining and expanding the sattelite fleet.

I don't think the space station plays any role with the satellite maintenance.

He set up one candidate as overtly pro-Russia, while positioning another candidate as overtly pro-West. The whole poisoning thing was a double cross I think, it got the people behind Russia's candidate in my opinion. I think it was a good old fashioned bait and switch. They put out the good guy and the bad guy, pretended to back the bad guy (with predictable responses from a population long tired of Russian manipulation of their affairs, and then when the good guy won, they immediately 'mended fences' and proceeded with business as usual.

My finacee is Ukranian and I just happen to be steeped in Ukr politics, almost against my will

I can tell you your assumptions, while interesting, aren't correct. Yuschenko is for real according to any source I have. I don't believe it is in his power to lift his country to a new level of development any time soon, though, exactly because of his pro-West stance.

Back to the original post:

Just how pathetic the Russian leadership is. To declare, in the media, that the country is on the brink of collapse, is deliberately sawing panic to promote special interest, and makes them look like a bunch of idiots.




[edit on 4-4-2005 by Aelita]

www.spacedaily.com...

www.nkau.gov.ua...

cns.miis.edu...

Oh yeah, they launch. They do commercial launches, but also Russian Military Sat launches.

And as far as my opinion on the political maneuvering behind the Ukraine election debacle, it's just that, opinion. Everybody is tending to think that the 'good' guy was legit, and the 'bad' guy was a scoundrel. Based on personal experience, when I see most people looking in one diretion, I tend to glance in the opposite direction to see what they're all missing, or what they've been misled away from.

It's just a theory, nothing more.

Originally posted by WyrdeOne
www.spacedaily.com...

www.nkau.gov.ua...

cns.miis.edu...

Oh yeah, they launch.

They do commercial launches, but also Russian Military Sat launches.

And as far as my opinion on the political maneuvering behind the Ukraine election debacle, it's just that, opinion. Everybody is tending to think that the 'good' guy was legit, and the 'bad' guy was a scoundrel. Based on personal experience, when I see most people looking in one diretion, I tend to glance in the opposite direction to see what they're all missing, or what they've been misled away from.

It's just a theory, nothing more.

Thanks for cool links. I just meant to say that Russia does not depend on Ukrain for launches. And Yuschenko is not anti-Russian. But he's not pro-Russian either.

Aelita
Oh..okay. I thought you were saying they didn't launch from Ukraine. Cool. Yeah, they don't depend on Ukraine, but it is a key part of the infrastructure. If they lost all their space centers one by one, it would be bad news for the Russian plan.

And you're right, Yuschenko isn't anti-Russian, but he was portrayed that way in the international media. They tend to like to simplify things, I guess they think we're all idiots or something.

Nothing is ever as simple as it's portrayed in the media. Nothing. I think there was a lot going on behind the scenes with that whole election. It seemed like even if the first election was invalid, the second one came too quick for any meaningful alteration to the procedures or oversight. I think it was a ploy to appease the people who had been riled up by the Western King-Makers' agents. Just my opinion, take it with a few grains of salt.