SHTF has arrived

We are at a very interesting point in history where we have both means (money), and knowhow (technology) to produce incredibly advanced things and yet we simply can't produce them due to hard shortages in supply chain.

The bigger problem is we can't even produce as much of the simple things we may actually require for the same reason (food, cars, energy, etc.)

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Finland is sending its heavy armour to the russian border? WWIII?

originally posted by: adrianprophet
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Finland is sending its heavy armour to the russian border? WWIII?

While the info is appreciated , try and keep the topic on supply chain type SHTF -- though in fairness, some is interrelated. Mostly just don't want this to devolve into the Uke threads.

a reply to: StoutBroux

Yea, this is bad and it totally escaped me. Good OP

a reply to: Randyvine2

Humans are not quite obsolete just yet. Lots of people will be needed to work the scythes to harvest the wheat to be ground into flour by turning the millstone. No fuel for tractor and other farm equipment means we are going to need the old fashioned way of doing things.



Now everyone knows I like to make light of things, and then drop in some seriousness here and there to somber the mood. Makes the lighter stuff funnier that way. But back in 2008 the US railroad companies were going to buy more locomotives than ever before. They were going to lay track parallel to every line they could. I worked for a company that made parts for EMD (GE is the only other locomotive manufacturer) back then. Because fuel was pushing $5/gal with no end in sight.

January 2009, the day after inauguration all but a skeleton crew were laid off with more cuts expected. The orders and plans were cancelled because the Banks locked up short term business operating loans tighter than anything. You have to pay operation costs (mostly parts and labor) while building and you pay off those loans when the locomotive sold. That was the way it has always been. CSX couldn’t just hand over cash that wasn’t being made off the loads of that new locomotive that wasn’t built yet.

Politicians called it a Housing Bubble as a CYA and a dig at unrestricted free loans and poor monetary policy of unregulated banks (Credit Default Swaps and worse practices) Notice interest free loans to the Banks from the Fed for the purpose of making loans, was what was done to get the economy back on track? CSX said that is nice, but we are sill not gambling billions that fuel is going or staying at $5/gal because it already dropped to $3 by then. Supply and Demand, when unemployment is high no one buys gas to sit at home. See also Covid Lockdowns.

Banks had all this free cash and no one wanted to borrow it that they wanted to lend it to because by then Banks needed you to put up a dollar collateral to borrow a dime. So they pumped up the deflated stock market because when Ford was $86 a share before and $16 a share afterwards, there was nowhere to go but up. (Not the actual prices but the difference was that striking they may even went down to $8 an was higher to start).

Took all of Obama’s presidency to recover. And to be fair, it would have taken the discovery of Anti-Gravity Technology or an honest to god Free Energy Device or something as spectacular to recover any sooner. And then there is Trump. Trump being moderately intelligent knows that you have to identify a problem to fix a problem. And that problem is that the US economy is too unprotected to outside influences.

Trump figures that a return to domestic production is the key to insulating the economy so China is the lynchpin. Unfortunately too many fingers are in that China pie and were going to have the door slammed shut. Impeachments are not working so welcome to SARS 2:Electric Boogaloo or Covid as it came to be called. The original SARS stayed in Asia because the world locked them down to travel. Not so this time, because that’s Supercali-xenophobic-expialidocious…or as Nancy “you have to catch it to find out what’s in it” Pelosi said “Come on down to Chinatown”

Joe, my super invention for you is to buy a Pez dispenser and fill it with Imodium AD tablets. It won’t fix the economy because it is well and truly FUBAR now, but it will keep you from crapping your pants. And we have to start somewhere.

a reply to: StoutBroux

We survived the ice age. Almost no food, minimal shelter, no malls, no internet, no nothing. Thats because we have a brain that's very good at logistics and problem solving. People will have to learn to adapt to the changing situation, and those who do will survive.

a reply to: Ahabstar

An elegant assessment.

I'm sure the intent would only be massive reduction in population
as opposed to complete extermination.

Of course they'll need pets they can choose for their flashes of
cruelty.

At this point it would be foolish to rule out anything.

a reply to: openminded2011

Toba catastrophe theory is a good read. Took the whole human population down to 3,000-10,000 people. And this did not even kickstart the last ice age. It was warm and I think the Sahara was a rainforest then 70,000 years ago.

They think it may have started the Out of Africa migration and ended all the non-homo-sapian humanoids that couldn’t adapt fast enough.

a reply to: StoutBroux

I completely agree with you but I think that it will be even worse than what we are expecting. Why you may ask ? Water. Water shortages. Wow. I can’t believe it is not national news right now. It’s mind boggling to me how people aren’t alarmed right now by what is happening to the southwest and west coast water supply shortages. Lake Powell is soon to run out of water and stop generating power. Lake Powell is upstream to Lake Mead which helps feed it but the feds are now delaying the release of water in hopes to keep generating power. Lake mead is at its lowest and I suspect in the near future the Hoover dam which supplies power to over a Million Californians will soon cease to generate electricity. This mega drought that is going on is different than previous years as the temperatures are higher which is causing even more evaporation at the Colorado river basin.

Obviously this in turn is gonna shut down a lot of future crops further putting strain on a market that is already short in supply which will drive prices up even more. There is literally no water to grow crops. People will start leaving these places in hopes to find greener pastures but, in all reality, the whole west is under strain. Here in Montana the winter was very mild this year and the lack of snow is very bad news because last season it was so hot and dry the wildfires were terrible. I suspect this year will be worse.
I can see in the future just like my old man would tell me people will be fighting wars over fresh water. There’s no denying times are changing and heading into a negative direction. Prepare and be as versatile as possible.The people that will be able to adapt will survive. Once one link is broken the whole machine will cease to operate.

As always,

Remain steadfast

Liquidiron

a reply to: Halfswede

In my humble opinion I think it’s over consumption of things we don’t need. I don’t think technology will be able to solve that issue. We have to come to understanding that our lavish lifestyle in society is not practical as our population continues to increase. Technology, if we put it to use recycling and focusing on a sustainable lifestyle will maybe buy us more time. But as of now god forbid the local millionaires golf course gets shutdown due to water shortages or water is redirected from the Napa valley winery to grow food crop. I just don’t see that happening or the rich making those sacrifices. It’s a domino effect and I think the whole thing is about to come crumbling down piece by piece.

originally posted by: StoutBroux
To all the anti-preppers and naysayers, the SHTF is happening as we speak.

SHTF happen around 2 years ago... at this point in time, it's all manufactured by globalists.

If there are any anti-preppers in 2022... nothing is going to change their minds lol.

a reply to: Liquidiron

Maybe a state that is tidal pools, salt marshes, prehistoric forests and mostly desert shouldn’t try terraforming by irrigation to the point of becoming the nation’s top grower of water dependent crops like grapes and citrus fruits? I mean if you have to drain the six nearby states of every drop they got, seems like a resource management problem. Then to overpopulate the cities to the point of chaos from just overcrowding, throwing a natural disaster like drought into the mix that could have been avoided completely making it a man made disaster…really doesn’t help.

But no small gas engine on a scythe. So at least they will be CARB compliant as they revisit post-Civil War Reconstruction Era technologies.

originally posted by: JinMI
a reply to: StoutBroux

The dow jones will tell you all you need to know.

When peoples retirement goes south, so will the society.

There was a story in the news today about people coming out of retirement to make ends meet.

a reply to: StoutBroux

My wife works in logistics.

Truckers are getting pickier about picking up loads. They don't want to go to certain places and will refuse to pickup. They don't want to pick up loads that are to the container max weight. And they are charging practically double what they used to charge.

a reply to: Edumakated

You mean exports. But that's like cutting off your leg to hurt someone else.

originally posted by: baddmove
/yawn

Again?

really?

Yeah again.

Preppers were right YEARS AGO.

See Covid.

a reply to: JinMI

I hope it is now necessary to correct inflation. The Dow Jones is an indication of inflation. The points in the OP tell why it is necessary to correct inflation.

a reply to: gb540

Too much inflation and the industries with the lowest "profit margins," the essential industries, go bankrupt.

The wheat not coming from Russia and Ukraine now will have a huge impact on a large area of the world. For the US not so much. We are still the breadbasket of the world that could also see all that food stay more at home too adding to world hunger in other not so fortunate places.

originally posted by: Randyvine2

I drive over the road and I sure don't see any shortage of trucks on the road.

Truck stops are full if you get in to late you have to park roadside.

Fuel prices are really just different numbers that get passed on down the line.

So as of right now I can't see the difference. I am sure that could change.

This. My job is groceries. We have the opposite of shortages, our DCs and stores are running out of places to store stuff. The only thing we are having a little trouble getting is chicken breast.