SHTF has arrived

a reply to: StoutBroux

this critical importance of trucking has been known about and pretty much ignored for decades.

interesting enough an old family friend wrote a novel way back in the 70's or early 80's. the novel was considered a religious based book, which it was. with the plot line being about smuggling bibles into communist countries (something the author likely took a personal part in). but what they did to try to help protect those doing so, they re-imagined the US as a authoritarian/communist type regime. and part of the book of course went into the cause of that regime. and that cause was a trucking strike, in which the government declared marshal law to get those trucks moving. because of the issues, such as starving and rioting cities that stoppage caused. even way back then at least some people understood the vast importance of trucking, and what would happen if that vastly needed service was stopped. and that such a situation and it's results is a very likely outcome of such a thing happening.

now the question is, was it just a book of fiction, or possibly a warning of what could easily happen in the future.

I've been waiting for this to come down for a long time. It's been clear that the model on which our supply chain, economy and consumption have been built was fragile.

I do believe that the collapse of being accelerated and manipulated for some very nefarious ends by some very nefarious people, but I maintain that it was an inevitable eventuality. (That's not to justify what's happening.)

a reply to: incoserv

So where do all the parts for military vehicles come from? if they are from China as well, then they are stuffed, if not they must ramp things up for civilian supply if they don't they are the problem.

originally posted by: Ahabstar
My local Dollar (and a quarter) Tree is out of helium until further notice. Not that I ever bought one but they did sell quite a bit of Mylar balloons every day. Not now.

Try getting helium for welding. Stuff was in short supply before Covid.

For transportation, we’re directly flirting with a transportation collapse and this is not hyperbole. Not helping is chip makers prioritizing “high value” smart phones, while “low value” vehicle chips are on the back burner. Isn’t this how Rome collapsed?

originally posted by: Randyvine2
a reply to: StoutBroux

I drive over the road and I sure don't see any shortage of trucks on the road.

Truck stops are full if you get in to late you have to park roadside.

Fuel prices are really just different numbers that get passed on down the line.

So as of right now I can't see the difference. I am sure that could change.

Ditto, I was traveling out of town off I-40. Surprised how many trucks are on the road and at all the fuel stops. I don’t see the difference either.

I watched a video 2 weeks ago that did a good job of sourcing facts and data related to China's latest lockdowns. It takes 50 days, on average, for product to go from commie sweatshop to US store shelf. As of 2 weeks ago, China's lockdown shut down the factories directly responsible for 7% of US GDP. The port of Shanghai, additionally, is China's largest exporter shipping port and it had been operating at 10% capacity for 4 weeks. If Beijing goes on lockdown, there goes another huge manufacturing center...

The message of the video was that, considering the 50 day lag time, US will start seeing huge supply holes appear in the last third of May and there is no indication that situation will do anything but deteriorate through summer and into Fall.

We are heading into hell, people.

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
We are heading into hell, people.

Some people take notice and warn others, but then there will always be those who like the warmth of the flames.

Bet you're wishing your country spent more on infrastructure than all the other junk.... Just like I wish my country did... An efficient rail network would go a long ways.

a reply to: homerJ

I'm actually sitting here wishing my country had spent less, a lot less. Remove all the "stimulus", all the aubsidies, a lot of the welfare, TARP, Wall Street bailouts and, of course, remove the artificial (and almost exclusively manipulative) barriers to American prosperity (including all the lockdowns, union pandering, and ridiculous regulations that drove all our manufacturing jobs into 3rd world #holes) and we wouldn't be heading into Hell in the first place.

originally posted by: truetrigger
The global supply chain has been on the brink since the first lockdowns....it was on the horizon before then.. it ran with small margins, political restraints & red tape, impossible customer SLA's & over worked and underpayed people worldwide.
Nothing of same volumes pre covid manufactured world wide.
Then countries create more fiat currencies during lockdown....not backed by anything and not created from manufacturer... causing the currency to devalue...
Scarcity of product and countries with devalued currencies....

There is a risk assessment I'm sure that would have the above mentioned, danger to societal normality pressure points, entitled: grow your own veg and learn to pickle & Jam....

Add to this Russua & Ukraine... wheat supply / steel / gas etc... all nearly stopped completely coming into Europe... then there is def cause to keep a whether eye on course of events.

BUT...... there is always something.... always.....

There is no point being frightened of fear....

If your thinking about the past or your mind is looking to the future... then you're not getting the point....
Life is now. Not the past or future. Live and have your mind in the present... now.... cause this time... now... is life.

Great post FWIW lots of points I agree with

There is always something about to happen, and yes live in the present and learn quickly to be flexible and adaptable.

It all seems planned from COVID on down, almost like TPTB were testing to see how well this segment of "public health" works in a crisis.

Ukraine NATO/RUSSIA is testing our military and intelligence logistics.

This is just another "stress test" now it's our supply chain logistics and manufacturing

yes, it definitely could be manipulated upon us, if not downright forced. I could definitely see an initiative that was in its early stages for the common good being hijacked and/or taken advantage of for money, power, influence, and control.

To me, it has some parallels to big oil and big auto buying up and killing off the electric trains and transit, all to sell gasoline bus mass transit, it wasn't done out of necessity or need. Just a few powerful men in key industries made it happen.

I’m surprised there’s not much discussion of the continuing Fed interest rate upticks. Anyone in the housing industry see any slowing? Will this be another 2009 or not as bad?

So you bought a house with 2.5% 30 year fixed. Interest rates goes to 8%, but a similar house next door is bought @ 3/4 the price of yours . Who has the better deal?

I'm a fuel driver in Pa. , primarily heating oil and diesel (both the same) $6 a gallon. Most standard heating tanks are 275 gallons. I'm leaving a mortgage payment if I deliver 200 gallons..
Currently, we stopped automatic deliveries and dropping 75 or 100 gallons only. I also have 2 terminals out of diesel and no date to restock.

Next winter isn't going to be fun heating a home.
I have a construction company that gets near 700 gallons twice a week. That will be next to slow. Excavation equipment, concrete floats, light generators., tampers.

originally posted by: Randyvine2
a reply to: StoutBroux

I drive over the road and I sure don't see any shortage of trucks on the road.

Truck stops are full if you get in to late you have to park roadside.

Fuel prices are really just different numbers that get passed on down the line.

So as of right now I can't see the difference. I am sure that could change.

Sorry Randy, but your perception is skewed. Everywhere I go, I see businesses and employees working in them. Through your perception, I could conclude business is fine and there are plenty of employees to work the necessary jobs. It's all good.

What it seems some here might be missing are ALLLL the trucks and other vehicles/equipment you DON'T see that is no longer running. The independent drivers quitting because they can't afford to drive and deliver product any longer. Equipment sitting on the sidelines because it can't be repaired or afford to be driven.

This isn't only about trucks. It's about supply line interruptions that aren't just bumps in the road. Baby formula is now a hot commodity. If you can't feed your babies that's a real problem. Cat food is difficult to find. Those are just a couple I have noticed in mainstream comments.

Lack of fertilizer for farmers to grow food to feed people and other animals

High petrol prices impacting the prices of all products

Lack of production for many reasons.....from food and food products, to parts for mechanical new and repair to technology products.

Throwing money at these problems won't help. Action is needed and people need to get in gear.

a reply to: StoutBroux

Lack of fertilizer to grow field corn to make ethanol to add to gasoline scam. If they can’t grow bumper corn crops will this finally end the bs ethanol program?

The billions being sent to Ukraine would go a long way to bringing back the most critical manufacturing businesses needed to operate our country.

The shortage of computer chips and repair parts for vehicles are on an endless backorder, and the manufacture of new vehicles might soon to be a thing of the past. Some police departments are already seeing losses in their fleets with vehicles that can't be repaired or replaced. Same with fire and ambulance service vehicles.

The trucking industry is being especially hard hit; as trucks break down, a lack of availability for a $20.00 part that will take 6+ months to arrive has already put more than one owner/operator out of the business. Semis put a lot of hard miles on and need a lot of maintenance; something that isn't going to be available much longer if we keep relying on other countries for repair parts. Major companies have already been forced to reduce their fleet size to try and compensate for the rising operating costs.

We will slowly be seeing fewer and fewer trucks, with dwindling selections at the stores. Lord help us when harvest time comes and those combines break down, compounded by semis sitting in the bone yards waiting for repairs. Just because it's not obvious to the casual observer doesn't mean it isn't happening.

a reply to: 38181

I touched on it earlier in this thread. Seems people are stalling at the moment on buying houses. Which sucks for those who bought new homes on conditional sales of their current home.

The issue is just starting and hasn't hit mainstream yet. The rumblings are there.

a reply to: StoutBroux

The real truth of the matter is humans have recently become obsolete.

Why wouldn't the unknown powerful few agree to reduce the amount of people
in their world? We have become nothing but a threat to them.

Everything is aimed at the general population.

And they throw parties at Martha's vineyard.

Believe me I know were screwed.

a reply to: 38181

I'm in the central part of the country where sometimes winter just won't end. But this week, the weather appears to finally be cooperating. We pretty much seem to have 3 seasons here - Winter, Summer and Fall. At this point, only 5% of fields are planted due to the freezing temps and normal winter thaw flooding combined with excessive rain. Only 1% of corn and soybeans are planted and normally, we're at 70% or higher by now AS A RULE. There are always fluctuations and exceptions I might add and we try to roll with the punches and for the most part, end up on our feet. I believe it's a recoverable situation if the rest of the growing season is fairly normal. But, time will tell. Farmers are also concerned about the fertilizer situation. John Deere with their equipment failures, right-to-Repair issues along with lack of chips and parts to service equipment may prove to be an issue but that also is a wait and see.

I don't approve of alarmists constantly desensitizing us so we ignore real warning signs of uncertainty and instability. But if someone ignores what is happening right now, they are blind and ignorant.

originally posted by: 38181
So you bought a house with 2.5% 30 year fixed. Interest rates goes to 8%, but a similar house next door is bought @ 3/4 the price of yours . Who has the better deal?

If you can be there the 30 years and don't run into other financial problems, you're good.

However... wonder how many buyers are financed to their eyeballs (again) because that's what the bank said they could afford (again). Now throw in inflation, and folks with zero savings falling into the spiral of deciding which payment won't be made this month. Including that killer payment on that overpaid house that's now worth less than they owe on it...

originally posted by: anonentity
a reply to: incoserv

So where do all the parts for military vehicles come from? if they are from China as well, then they are stuffed, if not they must ramp things up for civilian supply if they don't they are the problem.

This is indeed an issue. There has been a big push over the last 15 years or so to use Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) parts in military designs. It made lots of sense due to several reasons such as just grabbing a Nintendo controller that everyone knows how to use for controlling a drone and chips that are already well-understood and easily available (Recently saw something like 70% of military chips are foreign sourced).

Anyway, the great idea led to the great problem that we have now which is reliance on those COTS items that are not under manufacturing control of the military (regardless if US or foreign made). There are absolutely shortages that have hamstrung missile mfg lines and other weapon and defense system production lines without a clear path forward.