Of 138 Hospitalized Patients in Wuhan with nCoV 41% were infected IN the Hospital

A recent JAMA article looking at the Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China has found that over 40% of the NCoV patients caught the infection in the hospital.

Nosocomial infections are the bane of healthcare and the study found that of the 138 patients just over 26% acquired it in the intensive care unit with a 4.3% mortality rate. The mortality rate is probably low given the under reporting of the Chicom government.

As a comparison the US has a 4-5 percent rate in its hospital of these types of infections. This is not a criticism but points to a hospital system at the breaking point as exhausted staff makes mistakes.

Many years ago one of the Army residents that came through our hospital eventually ended up at USAMRIID. Of our many late night discussions we talked about biowarfare and pandemics. He indicated that based on modeling (weaponized small pox in this case) the epidemic would not die off until either the MD's and nurses were dead or had fled the hospital as it would be the last place people comingle. AT that point people would isolate themselves and either live or die based on exposure, preparedness, and genetics. Only then would things get under control. looks like he was right

Interesting, I heard numbers were down today.

a reply to: FredT

If we are going to see new cases spike in the US, when do you think it would be. I have been reading by the end of next week we should know one way or the other.

a reply to: LookingAtMars

Given the numbers we've been importing to keep in quarantine, I wouldn't be surprised to see a spike in numbers just from them alone.

We're outside the 14-day window from the first domestic case tested, so none of the ones they were monitoring from him must have come down with it.

We're outside the window for the Illinois case, and she infected her husband. I'm not sure if we're outside his 14-day window yet.

I don't know about any of the rest of the domestic cases like the ones in California.

a reply to: LookingAtMars

It depends on how much and how fast.

Hospitals only make changes because of $$$$ and about 10 years ago, government and insurance companies stopped paying for nosicomial infections so we changed how we practice for the good. There is a HUGE emphasis on prevention.......

I think the bans and quarantines put into place will dampen an outbreak here AND when a new case shows up, the over reaction that ensues will lock it down.

I do not think we will see a huge spike rather smaller brush fires that our system can handle.

Edit to add: Our system has never been tested like the systems in China. From what I have seen the failures are system NOT the exhausted Doctors and nurses that are doing their best under horrifying conditions

a reply to: FredT

That is probably why people who have a cold are fighting being brought into the hospitals. China made it so anyone sick has to go to the hospital to be checked out, guess they are not getting enough business from people walking in to make this a true epidemic. Chances are that these people being dragged in will catch the coronavirus since their immune system are worn out from being sick with something else. I saw that on the news tonight, the news said people are resisting....the reason they are not going in is probably since they don't want to catch it.

a reply to: FredT

We used to have two pretty good size hospitals here, but the Ishpeming one was replaced and the new one only has maybe ten beds or so. Then the big Marquette hospital was replaced with a new one with less beds again. If we had a pandemic we are Fukushima'ed. Well, it isn't far from China.

a reply to: FredT

I think the crux will be if we can keep the numbers of critical cases low enough that our system doesn't get overwhelmed. What you're seeing in Wuhan is a system that literally cannot cope with the number of patients it has. Once that happens anywhere, not matter how good protocol might otherwise be, all bets will be off.

a reply to: ketsuko

Yep that's why I'm happy people are aware and talking. That thread about overreaction is all well and good, but Ill take an over reaction to total system collapse and mass graves any day.

We cannot cope with that level of infection any better than they can. If fact our response will be worse because the Chicom government can pretty much do whatever and suspend rights as a routine matter of course

originally posted by: rickymouse
a reply to: FredT

We used to have two pretty good size hospitals here, but the Ishpeming one was replaced and the new one only has maybe ten beds or so. Then the big Marquette hospital was replaced with a new one with less beds again. If we had a pandemic we are Fukushima'ed. Well, it isn't far from China.

Thats the other issue, modern hospital systems lack any surge capacity. As Ive said in other threads if you look at Northern California you have at most 200-250 pediatric ICU beds that run at 80-85% occupancy just with routine accidents, cancer, etc etc so that leaves you with AT most 50 beds to play with and that's not counting staff as most are chronically understaffed Any spike would overwhelm any system

a reply to: FredT

Well I'm in am anxious "wait and see" mode as my father was recently in a hospital room right next door to a coronavirus patient. Hoping the isolation protocols held everything off as intended.

originally posted by: dogstar23
a reply to: FredT

Well I'm in am anxious "wait and see" mode as my father was recently in a hospital room right next door to a coronavirus patient. Hoping the isolation protocols held everything off as intended.

They should, I would keep an eye on things but the its not airborne and everybody would have been vigilant given all the stuff going on. Best of luck with your dad!

originally posted by: FredT

originally posted by: rickymouse
a reply to: FredT

We used to have two pretty good size hospitals here, but the Ishpeming one was replaced and the new one only has maybe ten beds or so. Then the big Marquette hospital was replaced with a new one with less beds again. If we had a pandemic we are Fukushima'ed. Well, it isn't far from China.

Thats the other issue, modern hospital systems lack any surge capacity. As Ive said in other threads if you look at Northern California you have at most 200-250 pediatric ICU beds that run at 80-85% occupancy just with routine accidents, cancer, etc etc so that leaves you with AT most 50 beds to play with and that's not counting staff as most are chronically understaffed Any spike would overwhelm any system

I agree - its not a ~2% fatality rate that concerns me (though that's plenty high enough to become a tragedy of epic proportions if widespread), its what that fatality rate would climb to if half the population is infected.

If half of the US population, let's say about 165m were to be infected, about 1% of the infected total could be hospitalized, assuming we kicked all other patients out of hospitals and used them exclusively to treat the pandemic. So what happens to the untreated 164 million? What's the fatality rate for untreated pneumonia? What does it rise to as food, medicine and caretakers run out?

People are pooh-pooh'ing the kill rate, but if it becomes extremely widespread, tens to hundreds of millions could die, the world economy would collapse and critical services would begin to fail. One large enough crisis could bring modern society to its knees. Fast-kill diseases like Ebola might be less dangerous than something like a long-incubation coronavirus.

a reply to: FredT

Thanks Fred - I'm confident, but man, with my close following of this, being an ATSer and all, it would figure the close (non contact) would occur in my world!

They've been declared cured and discharged, as has he. Every cough will trigger my pandemic paranoia for a couple weeks lol

a reply to: dogstar23

Exactly, There at about 750000 total beds in the US not counting VA, and other Federal Hospitals


Total Beds: 750000
Average occupancy rate in 2017: 65%

That leaves just over 260000 beds in the US. for 330000000 people. Thats beds not staffing mind you


www.ahd.com...
www.statista.com...

originally posted by: dogstar23
a reply to: FredT

Thanks Fred - I'm confident, but man, with my close following of this, being an ATSer and all, it would figure the close (non contact) would occur in my world!

They've been declared cured and discharged, as has he. Every cough will trigger my pandemic paranoia for a couple weeks lol

Look if you worry about it then nothing will happen thats what we do for transports. If I prep for the worst case, its not, I f I don't then bad things will happen.

Have him stay at home. Keep well meaning relatives away and especially children who are unknowing bio warfare vectors lol

a reply to: FredT

Yes indeed, good advice. Like the box of N95 masks I bought - I'll use them for sanding and painting eventually, but for now, I'm ok if all that $15 box ends up doing is collecting dust.

Funny thing, I take orecaustions like disinfecting my office after customer visits - while my kids are at school with 300 other kids, probably 290 of whom don't properly cover their coughs or wash their hands

a reply to: dogstar23

Buy some of this stuff


pdihc.com...

we use it in the hosptial and its 10-13 per tub

a reply to: FredT

Well, I would estimate within a few weeks we will know if this is going to be widespread in the U.S.


If it reaches the public school system, we are screwed.


Prepare accordingly.

a reply to: infolurker

Yep. I live with a 9-year-old vector. Love him, but if I can keep his hands away from his nose, it's a good day. It's like his nose has a permanent itch setting. The only distraction is to keep a book in his hand.