Corona Virus Updates Part 2

a reply to: Necrose

Pmsl lol

originally posted by: St Udio
a reply to: AngelsDecay

you joined in Aught-Six = 2006..... and that was 4 years shy of the 15 years membership you claimed... RE:

if that was the case I wouldn’t have joined this very Board/ATS site for almost 15 years….

an embellishment here---- an exaggeration there ===> and 'understandably' , One becomes labeled not credible…
i'm pulling for you

My second account... The other was under the *Samael* moniker iirc... Was deleted. But tks anyway for losing some minutes and math with me... Love you❤️

originally posted by: AngelsDecay

originally posted by: St Udio
a reply to: AngelsDecay

you joined in Aught-Six = 2006..... and that was 4 years shy of the 15 years membership you claimed... RE:

if that was the case I wouldn’t have joined this very Board/ATS site for almost 15 years….

an embellishment here---- an exaggeration there ===> and 'understandably' , One becomes labeled not credible…
i'm pulling for you

My second account... The other was under the *Samael* moniker iirc... Was deleted. But tks anyway for losing some minutes and math with me... Love you❤️

a reply to: Optimal

You also need to know that they have not tested every case in China, only those at the hospital who would be the sickest. So that will skew tour numbers right there.

But you are correct in pointing out that we don't know for sure and won't until this is over.

It would be safer to say that if you end up needing to be hospitalized, your outcome just got a lot dicier.

a reply to: Optimal
Great input, thanks

Germany +1 again today

originally posted by: AngelsDecay

originally posted by: St Udio
a reply to: AngelsDecay

you joined in Aught-Six = 2006..... and that was 4 years shy of the 15 years membership you claimed... RE:

if that was the case I wouldn’t have joined this very Board/ATS site for almost 15 years….

an embellishment here---- an exaggeration there ===> and 'understandably' , One becomes labeled not credible…
i'm pulling for you

My second account... The other was under the *Samael* moniker iirc... Was deleted. But tks anyway for losing some minutes and math with me... Love you❤️

I had a previous account as well several years before this one. Couldnt recall the pw and all after a move to the midwest, so I just made another one. It was never deleted. Guess Im super special.

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
This is interesting
Warning: Google Doc for those who don't appreciate being linked to anything other than html webpages
Incomplete list of confirmed cases

This is clearly an incomplete list of cases, but it was updated as recently as yesterday. Definitely some interesting data to be gleaned from it, including some very interesting links (use Google translator) to the sources of the patient information in the far right column.

How did you get this?

The file starts on 01/01/20. Maybe there is another one from 2019... anyway you can check, wherever you found this one ?

a reply to: Adphil28

The new case in Germany is, this time, the mother of the family where the father and two children have been infected earlier. The two children and the mother are symptom-free, BTW.

a reply to: carport

There was also one here cleared after being suspected so that’s some good news for that person

originally posted by: pasiphae
Regarding the low numbers in the US.... consider the fact that hospitals here don't have testing kits. Only the CDC does so I think the process of detecting new cases here that didn't come back from China or have contact with someone who did is probably long. People with flu symptoms will be tested for type A and then type B to rule those out first (and a lot of docs won't even test that - just send you home with a tamiflu rx) then they'd have to bring in the CDC. I think the WHO is trying to change this ASAP but I really don't think there are enough test kits even available if you think about the numbers needed and needing to go to China first.

Interestingly enough, my wife has been texting with her sister who lives near Dover Delaware. Her sister has severe bronchitis and has been fighting with flu-like symptoms for quite a long time. She went to a doctor and he pretty much just blew it off as a common flu, prescribed Tamiflu and hustled her on out of the office. And then my wife learns that her sister's boyfriend is at the doctor's with pneumonia. He also has been sick for a long time with something neither of them can seem to shake loose from.

It appears no one is being tested for this new virus unless they are waving a big red souvenir Chinese flag with tickets to prove they have been there recently. So in reality, no we really don't know how widespread this coronavirus is within the USA at all. Especially if the symptoms in non-Asiatic people is a whole lot less severe than it appears to be in Asia.

I think if I were of Chinese descent anywhere in the world right now, I would be figuring out a way to stay holed up for as long as possible avoiding everyone else.

Heck, I am not of Chinese descent but am looking hard trying to figure out what I need to consider as the "canary in the coal mine".

originally posted by: Advantage

originally posted by: AngelsDecay

originally posted by: St Udio
a reply to: AngelsDecay

you joined in Aught-Six = 2006..... and that was 4 years shy of the 15 years membership you claimed... RE:

if that was the case I wouldn’t have joined this very Board/ATS site for almost 15 years….

an embellishment here---- an exaggeration there ===> and 'understandably' , One becomes labeled not credible…
i'm pulling for you

My second account... The other was under the *Samael* moniker iirc... Was deleted. But tks anyway for losing some minutes and math with me... Love you❤️

I had a previous account as well several years before this one. Couldnt recall the pw and all after a move to the midwest, so I just made another one. It was never deleted. Guess Im super special.

Yes it's true... I lost my pass too and created another one... Maybe it still there but I really don't know that, so I used the word *deleted*.
But I repeat, I can't be sure about that.. If it wasn't Samael maybe Jupiterian Vibe or Shining Kingdom or Like actual Angels Decay from the same fave record of mine... Back in 2003 or around that but I repeat not sure...

originally posted by: KindraLaBelle

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
This is interesting
Warning: Google Doc for those who don't appreciate being linked to anything other than html webpages
Incomplete list of confirmed cases

This is clearly an incomplete list of cases, but it was updated as recently as yesterday. Definitely some interesting data to be gleaned from it, including some very interesting links (use Google translator) to the sources of the patient information in the far right column.

How did you get this?

The file starts on 01/01/20. Maybe there is another one from 2019... anyway you can check, wherever you found this one ?

I found this buried in plain sight on a page I linked earlier in this thread, but without clicking the embedded link when I initially read the article.
qz.com...

But that fatality rate is likely to be higher in older adults. Unofficial open-source data from researchers based in the UK and China show that out of 41 deaths, 39 were in people over 50.

It's the open source data mentioned in the quote above.

Downplaying nCoV because of claims of 2% case fatality rate (CFR) is comforting to some extent, but it would be wise to consider that the transmissibility in this case could be the more lethal stat.

2% overall average could reasonably be argued as the very minimum CFR. Actually it is almost certainly higher, but what exactly is open to debate. Without a follow through of cases from a standard demographic, there are many approaches to making an educated guess, many of which have been covered in this forum.

Transmissibillity though could cause absolute chaos. If it is highly contagious, and precautions around the world, not to mention China, seem to suggest it really could be, then you have a serious problem. If a third of the population gets it, even with 2% CFR you are looking at 50million dead minimum globally. I expect CFR is higher than this though, and we may not be limited to one third of the population, so society would face severe consequences well before we approach the total death toll.

CFR will not be a constant however since once health care is clogged. Those requiring basic treatment will be left to fend for themselves. Go further, disrupting supply chains (already happening) for example, and suddenly basic requirements and services for even the healthy population becomes an issue which would undoubtedly carry a heavy cost in lives. China seems particularly worried about this part and maintaining order before an unimaginably bad problem finds a way to get orders of magnitude worse.

In the UK we had an estimated 167k hospital beds in 2017. But reports of 95% occupied leaves 8350 free beds. Some reports saying actually 99% occupied. As you can imagine, this would not take long to become overwhelmed, quicker in certain locations.

Of course some would quite naturally say, if it were that transmissible, we would have seen an explosion in cases by now outside of China. Well not necessarily. If it were highly contagious and fast acting then yes. But then, like Ebola, it would burn itself out and limit its spread just as quickly. With incubation up to 14 days, some cases very mild, some asymptomatic... For example I read of one asymptomatic patient who showed evidence of pneumonia on scan, though they seemed perfectly fine. They were being looked at because they were related to a confirmed case, I think they went on to test positive. Therefore this can spread before raising any alarm bells or confirmed cases. Add to that, some being test 5 times, symptomatic throughout, only testing positive 5th time, containment appears highly unlikely.

This local transmission is key. Media are keen to point out non-local transmission, because they know that word will be out that as soon as there is local transmission, it is too late with this kind of transmissibillity. People aren't stupid, here for example you have a vast cross-section of talent and brains, humour too! They know we are watching.

1 confirmed case. Say 4 days later, this becomes 2. Another 4 days this becomes 4. Nothing to worry about right? Tiny numbers. 2 months, or 60 days after the first case you have 33k cases. 4 days later 66k.

Don't get me wrong. I don't want to come across alarmist. I just wanted to write a clear example of how this could spread so people are aware and can prepare accordingly if they judge it necessary and when.

Of course exponential growth wouldn't continue indefinitely. And the rate of exponential growth, i.e. how long it takes to double, would not be constant. Better containment, precautions, hand-washing etc will reduce transmissions, and eventually infected would not come across as many uninfected, so R0 would decrease too.

We aren't seeing many local transmissions reported so please don't worry. There is also the question of whether this would be limited to Asian populations (though this raises many questions, some of which may be scarier than the virus). Just keep an eye. My advice is to prepare to stay inside for at least a month. If you buy a few more bits that won't perish soon, you will find you could survive on it for much longer than a month if needs must. And all being well, this never happens, and you use these extras anyway so it hasn't cost you anything more than you would have spent. Panic buying is ill named and I think it irresponsible that governments aren't advising people to prepare. The virus is a concern, but the consequences of it are of equal concern whether it spreads or not. A rush on supplies early, when the supply chain will recover quickly, is far better than a rush when the supply chain may already be in jeopardy. Especially in the case of a contagion where a late rush on supplies could bring people together in numbers when you are trying to limit spread.

Sorry for the long post. I've been monitoring a lot of sources and working with a lot of numbers but don't comment anywhere, so I had a lot to say and never was very good at keeping it short. Please forgive me, but thanks again for all your valuable contributions and insights.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

This is a great post and it is something we all need to think about because if this thing had the morbidity rates many experts think it does, we’re all in for a rude awakening.

If this does become a pandemic, we will lose trillions and it could take up to a decade to recover. Not to mention a rebirth of xenophobia and isolationist policies. There will be wars, there will be humanitarian disasters and we are going to see far more deaths than those directly contributed to the disease.

This virus does not give a crap about race, sex, how much money you have or where you live. It only wants to reproduce and maintain its genetic material. Third world nations will not be able to survive without UN and WHO intervention. It’s world changing, I hope it’s for the better.

originally posted by: Rich Z

originally posted by: pasiphae
Regarding the low numbers in the US.... consider the fact that hospitals here don't have testing kits. Only the CDC does so I think the process of detecting new cases here that didn't come back from China or have contact with someone who did is probably long. People with flu symptoms will be tested for type A and then type B to rule those out first (and a lot of docs won't even test that - just send you home with a tamiflu rx) then they'd have to bring in the CDC. I think the WHO is trying to change this ASAP but I really don't think there are enough test kits even available if you think about the numbers needed and needing to go to China first.

Interestingly enough, my wife has been texting with her sister who lives near Dover Delaware. Her sister has severe bronchitis and has been fighting with flu-like symptoms for quite a long time. She went to a doctor and he pretty much just blew it off as a common flu, prescribed Tamiflu and hustled her on out of the office. And then my wife learns that her sister's boyfriend is at the doctor's with pneumonia. He also has been sick for a long time with something neither of them can seem to shake loose from.

It appears no one is being tested for this new virus unless they are waving a big red souvenir Chinese flag with tickets to prove they have been there recently. So in reality, no we really don't know how widespread this coronavirus is within the USA at all. Especially if the symptoms in non-Asiatic people is a whole lot less severe than it appears to be in Asia.

I think if I were of Chinese descent anywhere in the world right now, I would be figuring out a way to stay holed up for as long as possible avoiding everyone else.

Heck, I am not of Chinese descent but am looking hard trying to figure out what I need to consider as the "canary in the coal mine".

Exactly, they don't have the kits and most of the time they are going to look at you as if you got the flu and just prescribe what you said. I don't know if you guys have this also but I've noticed that for the past few years I have had to fight to get phlegm out of my throat more often than not. I didn't used to have to do that. And if I don't then it works it way into my lungs and then I get an infection and have to get antibiotics and also use Mucelex (which they love to give you) to losen the phlegm and make it possible to cough it out.

I noticed that you can't find alot of the older medicines that used to do the work well and without prescription. I remember a robitussin that not only loosen your phlegm but you could also just swallow and not have to worry about spitting it out the phlegm. I've said to others that I believe that many of our medicines have been taken off the shelf, your not proscribed enough and/or weakend and that is one reason why you can have a full year off and on cough trying to get phlegm out of your throat and nasal passages.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67



Absolute gem of a post!

a reply to: Rich Z

And this is where human error becomes a very, very big problem. I've always held the belief that spreading false information is far less destructive in the long run than obscuring truth is. False information can cause panic, but tangibly it doesn't do much, because that false threat people are panicking about doesn't actually happen, and once they see that it's business as usual. Obscuring the truth can be absolutely devastating however. Telling people that nothing is wrong and nothing will happen, when it absolutely will, and eventually does. That is how you kill people. And it has happened too often in modern times. The old "but the Titanic is unsinkable you fool!"

So I guess my point is people aren't taking this seriously enough right now. Because some truths that would make them take it seriously are being obscured and waved off as hysteria and such. It seems some people would gladly pay the price of death and destruction to uphold their smug, "stoic" sense of safety and egotism. Even if it potentially is so very false. Probably the same people that argued the plane in Iran wasn't shot down tbh.

originally posted by: misfit312
Pangolin as a potential intermediate host

Original title: South China Agricultural University finds pangolin as a potential intermediate host for a new coronavirus

At 1 am on February 7th, South China Agricultural University announced on its official WeChat: South China Agricultural University, Lingnan Modern Agricultural Science and Technology Guangdong Provincial Laboratory, Professor Shen Yongyi, Professor Xiao Lihua and other researchers jointly with the PLA Academy of Military Medical The latest research conducted by researcher Yang Ruizhang and senior veterinary surgeon Chen Wu from the Guangzhou Zoo Scientific Research Department showed that pangolins are potential intermediate hosts for the new coronavirus. 

This is excellent, thanks for posting

originally posted by: weirdguy

originally posted by: Zanti Misfit
a reply to: [post=24924680]weirdguy[/pos



So Where did it Actually Originate From ? Or is that Information just Not Available as a Kernel of Truth ?

All of the DNA genomes show clearly it has come from bats. Weather there was a direct spill over to humans or an intermediate animal host is not known yet.

Hmm... So Bats do Somehow Carry the SARS and AIDS Viruses too ? ...