Market headed towards recession territory

a reply to: rickymouse

Wonder what the forex traders are doing?

a reply to: toysforadults

Ha, you mean our official 2.5% inflation rate? I wonder how many people out there really believe in that number.

When assets appreciate in value, does that really mean they are worth more or that the purchasing power of the fiat has decreased?

Maybe someday we will get to Japan's level where their balance sheet is larger than their entire GDP. It is all about faith. If we were to publish the true economic stats, including the true rate of inflation, there would be a full blown depression before xmas.

it is all an illusion.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: Irishhaf

Yeah. Just like business and people would become more confident and take out loans during a Trump presidency.

Actually, the banks we approached for an auto loan (including ours) last year were significantly more rigid in their baseline criteria to meet than when we'd approached for a possible mortgage in '15. The loan officer at our bank very bluntly said they weren't buying Trump's prosperity line at all, and they tightened their criteria out of caution.

We did eventually get that auto loan, but it was like pulling teeth to get it. Our credit & credit history is fine, they just weren't particularly willing to loan. To anyone.

a reply to: Nyiah

What the hell kind of banks are you going to?

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: rickymouse

Wonder what the forex traders are doing?

pokin the bear!!

a reply to: toysforadults

I know in a lot of markets two things are going to be happening at the same time.

Houses are prices are going to drop (maybe dramatically), and at the
same time these people are going to be paying the highest property taxes they have in a decade, and property taxes may still continue to go up. That is going to be
real fun when they try to sell. Of course this will be more extreme in some areas like Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Jersey.

I belong to a couple of older House groups and people are always showing amazing houses for sale in Pennsylvania, that seem really cheap. The taxes are sky high and keep going up. So many young people don't stop and think why farmers and others just dumped these places.

a reply to: toysforadults

Well yeah....

Foreign markets are looking like crap, housing bubble has peaked, stocks are over-valued. Expect it to dive back in the teens soon.

a reply to: toysforadults

I beginning to see the cracks in the housing market in my area.
I remember right before and in the middle of the housing crash realtos were coming on the news all the time and talking how things are good in the market.

Yet when things are booming they are rarely on . A few weeks ago i noticed they are getting back into my local news saying how our local market is immune to what is going on nationally . Yet my area was among one of the first to rise and tank during the last crash.

So The more realtors go on the news trying to convince the public things are good the sh1t is about to hit the fan or already hit the fan.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: Bluntone22

You know I just thought of this I read a theory once about the grand solar minimums and that some of them have odd correlations with cultural and economic issues probably just psuedo crap though

If the weather is warm, people move house. If the weather turns bad, people will put off moving home. Knowing removal people, you don't want your belongings getting drenched in rain, or moving into a home only to discover it has leaky tiles or walls. There's an instinct to hibernate when the nights get long. Driving around town in bad weather to get repair materials is a pretty bad idea.

Southern California had the problem with home owners ending up in "golden jail". They've got a beautiful home, they would like to trade up to somewhere larger, but the only places they can afford are further out, a longer commute and
more expensive. So they stay in place. So does everyone ahead of them and behind them in the property market. The whole market backlogs until owners start moving out.

We had a housing crash in the UK back in the 1990's due to everyone panicking about getting onto the housing market. Then when interest rates were jacked up suddenly, no one could afford their mortgages and the whole system crashed.

the move towards recession is manipulated by the Federal Reserve & the rate hikes

along with their Quantitative Tightening (QT) which is flooding the system with a monthly $50 Billion of Fed-Balance-Sheet-debt-paper along with (covert Equities resold into the DOW Jones Market) secret ownership of certain business Stocks made possible by actions by the PPT and the secret operations by the Market Stability Fund to pump up the DOW to some 26,600++ over the last several years i.e.: since the 2008 great recession)


the FED is intent on recovering the $4Trillion of balance-sheet losses at this time

the FED has all the MERS properties, obtained by stealth, In their fat, brown leather, satchel...
along with tonnes of Gold & PMs in the various Fed Reserve Bank vaults which once belonged to a host of foreign countries and the National USA Treasury----> at least that's the stuff of CT'ers

originally posted by: olaru12
The tariffs also should help!!

Tariff's are definitely not helping. The company I work for was about to hire several more people, once the tariffs hit all plans for that were eliminated. We were also going to renovate an office and refurnish it, but we couldn't get it done before the price hikes were going in. That plan has now also been scrapped.

originally posted by: mikell
Home sales always fall in the fall. Not worried. Record profits the last 2 quarters for us. Nearly $100 million in building for us including $8 million for a company day care, $55 million on warehousing and my new labs $35 million. Life's good

Record deficit as well. I guess not many people understand how the interest we pay causes inflation and lowers wages.. since it happens tomorrow people love to only cite what happens today as why everything is great.


In my opinion the economy is on the brink of disaster when the best case scenario is resulting in a trillion per year deficit.

Our deficit is at QE levels during the recovery.

a reply to: Aazadan

Not only that they have made the trade imbalance worse.

Oops. Unintended consequences from market intervention.

Of course when the bubble pops once again the blame will be placed on Obama and the dembs. It's an established pattern in the WH.

I wonder if then the rightwing will see the lies and deception about the trickle down economic model.

a reply to: toysforadults

The business cycle will always be with us and so too, the peaks and troughs. A recessionary period is a necessary input in the business cycle. It’s gonna happen.

I do believe there is something to the idea that the construction decline is more than seasonal, but not sure it spells impending doom.

Oracle of Omaha Sells Stake in Drywall Co.

a reply to: BeefNoMeat

Bubbles are separate issues where malinvestment is encouraged by artificial low rates on loans and printed money to pay for deficits.

The fact our deficit is in the record high area is a terrible sign considering the economy is at about its peak performance. IT could nearly double with a slump in sales.


We pay the Chinese about 70 million per day in interest for instance for the loans we need because we spend more than we make.

Then we turn around and pretend tariffs are the issue. It's hilarious. How about not need to borrow money first.

a reply to: luthier

10-4.

I don’t know where I mentioned or replied to anything about ‘bubbles’, but I’ll try to work in ‘malinvestment’ into a few discussions, going forward.

Yeah, servicing the US debt is a thing, the Chinese and Buffett must know something — China is the number 1 owner of public debt and Buffett keeps the lion’s share of his cash holdings in T-bills. It’s hilarious they’d bet against their own self-interests. But, hey, you’re probably not laughing...

a reply to: BeefNoMeat

I just wanted to clarify it isnt a normal cycle when its manipulated with cash flooding.


If our debt is a trillion with 3 percent unemployment we are in a terrible situation.

a reply to: luthier

Ok.

You seem to be a top-notch economist and I can’t argue with any of your assertions. Back to looking at facts and data.

originally posted by: BeefNoMeat
a reply to: luthier

Ok.

You seem to be a top-notch economist and I can’t argue with any of your assertions. Back to looking at facts and data.

I guess if you were looking at facts or data you could argue against me instead of the smug reference.


Maybe we can keep inflation low by controlling the CPI with cheap goods...oops.

The interest on our debt is the 4th largest item in the anual budget.