Sunspots, record cold, warns NASA scientist

originally posted by: Spacespider
Well I think I just learned something new then.. never thought sunspots affected temperature ?!

I was sure that during the summer, the sun's rays hit the Earth at a steep angle. The light does not spread out as much, thus increasing the amount of energy hitting any given spot. Also, the long daylight hours allow the Earth plenty of time to reach warm temperatures.

During the winter, the sun's rays hit the Earth at a shallow angle. These rays are more spread out, which minimizes the amount of energy that hits any given spot. Also, the long nights and short days prevent the Earth from warming up. Thus, we have winter.. and not affected by sunspots

Isn't that specific to the hemisphere you are considering. I would think the suns energy strikes the earth at the same angle all the time but the degree of angle does fluctuate from hemisphere to hemisphere. Summer north of the equator, winter south and visa versa?

Low twenties here yesterday...bit colder than average, which usually mid to upper 40's.

Supposed to warm back up over the next few days, into the low 50's.

a reply to: Bluntone22

You know that they are talking about the upper atmosphere, right? Doesn't have anything to do with the surface, where climate is, where people are.

“The thermosphere always cools off during Solar Minimum. It’s one of the most important ways the solar cycle affects our planet,” explains Mlynczak, who is the associate principal investigator for SABER.

“We are especially pleased that SABER is gathering information so important for tracking the effect of the Sun on our atmosphere,” says James Russell, SABER’s Principal Investigator at Hampton University. “A more than 16-year record of long-term changes in the thermal condition of the atmosphere more than 70 miles above the surface is something we did not expect for an instrument designed to last only 3-years in-orbit.”

spaceweatherarchive.com...

Meanwhile, the surface gets warmer, paying not much attention to the solar cycle.

Good OP, got me thinking about the The Maunder Minimum

The Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", is the name used for the period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare, as was then noted by solar observers.
The term was introduced after John A. Eddy[1] published a landmark 1976 paper in Science.[2] Astronomers before Eddy had also named the period after the solar astronomers Annie Russell Maunder (1868–1947) and her husband, Edward Walter Maunder (1851–1928), who studied how sunspot latitudes changed with time.[3] The period which the spouses examined included the second half of the 17th century

Spörer noted that, during a 28-year period (1672–1699) within the Maunder Minimum, observations revealed fewer than 50 sunspots.
This contrasts with the typical 40000 – 50000 sunspots seen in modern times (over similar 25 year sampling).[8] ​
Like the Dalton Minimum and the Spörer Minimum, the Maunder Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average European températures

Even though still controversial, the resulting Little Ice Age seems to intuitively make sense...

a reply to: Cassi3l

The article in the OP concerns the upper atmosphere, which cools significantly during every solar minimum. The surface doesn't really do that.

The Little Ice Age was confined to the Northern Hemisphere (mostly Atlantic regions) and began long before the Maunder Minimum. The Minimum may have contributed, but it was not the primary cause.

A Grand Solar Minimum may have some short lived effects on climate in some regions but it won't cool the planet.

The planet has been warming even though sunspot numbers have been declining for 60 years or so.

originally posted by: mikell
9 Here last Friday a bit cooler than normal. Snow every other day. Welcome to Southwest Michigan. The UP has a couple of feet as of this morning.

Michigan highway condition map
Map

Good snow for hunting season!!

Here in Michigan temperatures have definitely been below average the last several years. In the last decade or so it seems it's become rare to have a really hot summer, while really cold winters have become more the norm than the exception. Two years ago my in-laws didn't even bother to open their pool, because it never got warm enough to swim. This year they did, but they might as well not have.

a reply to: Bluntone22

It won't have any effect on the surface of the planet.

Sunspo ts have been absent from the surface of the sun for most of this year, causing the Earth's upper atmosphere to lose heat energy as a result of the lack of agitation.

However, research has shown these changes high above Earth are unlikely to have much of an impact on weather at the planet's surface - including climate change.

originally posted by: AndyFromMichigan

originally posted by: mikell
9 Here last Friday a bit cooler than normal. Snow every other day. Welcome to Southwest Michigan. The UP has a couple of feet as of this morning.

Michigan highway condition map
Map

Good snow for hunting season!!

Here in Michigan temperatures have definitely been below average the last several years. In the last decade or so it seems it's become rare to have a really hot summer, while really cold winters have become more the norm than the exception. Two years ago my in-laws didn't even bother to open their pool, because it never got warm enough to swim. This year they did, but they might as well not have.

In my neck of the woods in MI, our little backyard pool we set up every summer seldom gets warmer than 75, and never for longer than a week in the dead of summer. It usually hovers between 55 and 65.
However, our backyard is heavily shaded, so it's not getting much of any solar heating help.

Phage is correct in pointing out this isn't the level of the atmosphere that should be of concern. This is like saying a cold room has a direct effect on a 104* fever dropping sharply. It doesn't. Same basic correlation (or rather, lack thereof) idea, different bodes of mass and air.

a reply to: Phage

Like i did point out, whilst feeling intuitively correct,
the link between The Maunder Minimum and the Little ice age is controversial
from the wiki link

The term "Little Ice Age" applied to the Maunder minimum is something of a misnomer, as it implies a period of unremitting cold (and on a global scale), which was not the case.

For example, the coldest winter in the Central England Temperature record is 1683–1684, but the winter just two years later (both in the middle of the Maunder minimum) was the fifth-warmest in the whole 350-year CET record.

Also, summers during the Maunder minimum were not significantly different from those seen in subsequent years. The drop in global average temperatures in paleoclimate reconstructions at the start of the Little Ice Age was between about 1560 and 1600, whereas the Maunder minimum began almost 50 years later

So you know, i'm no where near saying that the MM created the 17thC mini ice age ...
I'm more inclined to think that the Krakatoa event caused more problems, climate-wise, 2 hundred or so years later

a reply to: Cassi3l

I'm more inclined to think that the Krakatoa event caused more problems, climate-wise, 2 hundred or so years later

Actually, there are strong indications that volcanic activity was the primary cause of the Little Ice Age.

While the MM occurred within the much longer LIA period, the timing of the features are not suggestive of causation and should not, in isolation, be used as evidence of significant solar forcing of climate. Climate model simulations suggest multiple factors, particularly volcanic activity, were crucial for causing the cooler temperatures in the northern hemisphere during the LIA. A reduction in total solar irradiance likely contributed to the LIA at a level comparable to changing land use.

www.research.ed.ac.uk...

a reply to: Bluntone22

I studied Rolf Witzsche's work for some time now, maybe he is correct, who knows but at least he has been studying it for many years

Ice Age Ahead

a reply to: Bluntone22

So far , just like last winter and the winter before that, here in florida it has been unusually rainy and warm.


So I will believe this "record cold" when I feel it.

It's 77 Fahrenheit here right now. And raining. In mid november on the gulf coast.


Edit: Thank you phage for once again bringing the facts to our attention.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Bluntone22

You know that they are talking about the upper atmosphere, right? Doesn't have anything to do with the surface, where climate is, where people are.

“The thermosphere always cools off during Solar Minimum. It’s one of the most important ways the solar cycle affects our planet,” explains Mlynczak, who is the associate principal investigator for SABER.

“We are especially pleased that SABER is gathering information so important for tracking the effect of the Sun on our atmosphere,” says James Russell, SABER’s Principal Investigator at Hampton University. “A more than 16-year record of long-term changes in the thermal condition of the atmosphere more than 70 miles above the surface is something we did not expect for an instrument designed to last only 3-years in-orbit.”

spaceweatherarchive.com...

Meanwhile, the surface gets warmer, paying not much attention to the solar cycle.

Thank you phage for once again bringing the facts to our attention.

Had to get up early this morning to switch to a little heat. Down in upper 20s low 30s overnight in SE Texas for next few days, But the upside I don't have to run the A/C. Between 55-65 I'm good. It starts to get annoying below 45-50.

Unfortunately, snow is rare. When it does and accumulates there is nothing like sitting on the square and watching people who don't normally drive on snow play bumper cars.

a reply to: Bramble Iceshimmer



Now we have an MSM change to the narrative, If anyone looks at the declining sunspot activity, is it just chance that this coincides with global cooling? In a few years the gas giants Saturn and Jupiter, will adjust our orbit slightly so their will be a one eighth drop in the heat of the sun hitting the Earth, the cosmic ray increase is causing more cloud formation, which will lower it even more, and the forth disturbing sign is increased volcanic activity during solar minimums which shield the Earth even more. The Madrid fault went off during a solar minimum.

a reply to: anonentity

In a few years the gas giants Saturn and Jupiter, will adjust our orbit slightly so their will be a one eighth drop in the heat of the sun hitting the Earth,

Nonsense.
biocycle.atmos.colostate.edu...

The Madrid fault went off during a solar minimum.

Sometimes the phone rings when I get in the shower.

a reply to: Phage


One minute twenty five into the vid it gives the orbits for 2024

a reply to: anonentity

Yes. I know.
That person does not understand orbital mechanics. The link I posted above does. It uses actual math to predict Earth's orbit.

Physics, not nonsense.

So if sunspots change the weather, what's your solution? Here's a 2018-2019 winter forecast link

As someone who has followed space weather for decades I can tell you that some solar scientists are predicting lower than normal solar activity through at least 2050 resulting in lower global temperatures. How low no one can definitively say what with the uncertainty that global warming adds to the mix. But either way earth will go on whether we do or not