Quake Watch 2016

Because the largest earthquake and the next largest in magnitude are so close, are we looking at a swarm in Japan, or are these foreshocks, with a larger quake looming? Wiki

Båth's Law[edit] The other main law describing aftershocks is known as Båth's Law[5][6] and this states that the difference in magnitude between a main shock and its largest aftershock is approximately constant, independent of the main shock magnitude, typically 1.1–1.2 on the Moment magnitude scale.

Japan Met Agency has the largest quakes as both Mag 6.4's, while USGS shows a Mag 6.2 and 6.0.

Definitely not your normal mainshock-aftershock sequence.

Seeing as I can't access ATS image upload because I have AdblockPlus you will have to go look for yourself.
100-trace Continuous Waveform Images from JMA.
It looks to me the JMA reading is wrong, with the second M6 not as big as the first. Click on 24 hr preview button.
I had a feeling something was coming in this area as far back as March 12 , with the SW of Kyushu aftershocks spilling north west over the Shimokoshiki Island skid mark into the W of Amakusa region, but I thought Nagasaki was maybe next. Mar, 12 2016 @ 08:54 PM post.
I added an appendage to the SW of Kyushu page about the spillover and a graph showing a comparison between the two areas over the last 5 months and the increase at Amakusa.

Edit: Another possible warning sign of this coming may be that since the end of March the overall numbers of quakes across the Japan Islands has steadily built up to the point where the daily count has doubled!, the M1+ quakes up from a steady 150ish per day to 300 per day. When I noticed this I started putting the number count of both below and above M1 on the text intro of each page relating to the Bing map, as Bing only shows 200 (and sometimes not even the full 200). BTW if the Bing maps don't show anything try refresh as sometimes it won't load the first time, or click on the link on my page again.

It is really hard to tell if a bigger one is coming, a lot of energy released in the last 5 hours, but 2 x low 6's don't add up tthe amount of energy released by a 7.0. Lets hope for the sake of the folks in Kumamoto that this is it and worst case scenerio is that it becomes an aftershock series with decreasing magnitudes.

I can't stay away
It is just great to share with people of like mind, regardless of the ATS PTB throwing adverts in the way.
So, no more images (maps/graphs) from me. You will have to do with links to Dropbox or Blogger.
FWIW the NIED PRELIMINARY data is showing;
the first big quake @ 14/04/2016 12:26:34 UTC as 6.1ML
the second @ 14/04/2016 15:03:46 UTC as 5.7ML
that seems to match up more in line with the Global Networks
@ 14/04/2016 18:44:34 UTC I've got 313 aftershocks!, that is simply amazing for just 6 hours!

I have to go out for a couple of hours, but when I get back I will run that and do a new update again and do some maps and graphs. The Reviewed data won't be out for a few days, but this is pretty major so I'll post the Preliminary data on my Japan page and update it until the Reviewed stuff comes through.
The Fault looks to be about 24km long, following the eastern hills between Matsubase in the SW and the Airport in the NE

6.5 Olny Vanuatu 10km (6.2 mi)
earthquake.usgs.gov...

There's was a 6.0 before this.

earthquake.usgs.gov...



It's like Vanuatu and Japan are reacting to each other.

further to: muzzy
Wow up to 576 events now, in just another 5 hours
lunchtime
then I'll get onto it

Edit: here you go
kumamoto-kyushu-m61-as-14-15-apr-2016
I'll have another look in about 5 hours.
Timeline graph shows decreacing magnitudes
dl.dropboxusercontent.com...

just not the same without screenshots is it

Blame the PTB ATS

further to: muzzy
I have added the first 5hrs of the Waveform Graphs combined into one strip, its a big image. Similar to the one I did on SW of Kyushu a week ago.
Because the data is Preliminary at this stage I have not marked the magnitudes ( like I did on SW of Kyushu), as they may change. But you can see from the biggest 3 that the 3rd one (prelim 5.7) was bigger than the 2nd one (prelim 5.6)
Aqua have only converted the Mainshock, 6.1Mw and the 3rd big one (2016-04-15 00:03:51) to 5.9 Mw.
But as I have been saying for the last 6 years "why bother?" if the smaller quakes are ML then the bigger ones can be too.
The Graphs don't lie. Why turn a few of the bananas (waves on the graph) into oranges (into Mw) when if they are all bananas you can compare the sizes.
Note: When you are looking at that first 5 hours waveform graph you will see a smuge coming down from the top just under 16/04/15 01:00:00, that shows some action further north in Japan, in this case a 4.7 off the S Coast of Honshu


The Bing map marker limit issue is a hard one. What I have done here is split the data into 3 x 200 events, with the first event on each one the 6.1 for reference. That works OK, but it doesn't really show anything of value, such as where is this heading, if the numbers went over 200 you could follow the numbers and see the track.
That is where the GIF animations are of more value.

USGS usually lists about 30 quakes at any given time. This morning they had 72, the most I'd ever seen.

one 6.0 or more in Vanuatu and two more in Japan
eight of 5.0 to 5.9 in Japan, Vanuatu and Chile, Indonesia, East Timor
twenty-one of 4.5 to 4.9, mostly in Japan, plus Chile, Tonga, New Guinea, Turkmenistan

hopefully the worst is over.

update to: muzzy
Holy Cow another 370 aftershocks in the last 5 hours !!
I'm on my fifth set of 200 Bing Maps!
In comparison the M7.1 SW of Kyushu of 13th Nov 2015 at the same stage 19:31:37hrs elapsed time, only had 211 aftershocks
Sure these are Preliminary (automatic), probably lose a third of them on review, maybe not.
I think the difference is that this is land based, in a residential area, with more siesmographs doing the recording, compared to the offshore SW of Kysuhu.
Kumamoto, Kyushu M6.1 a/s 14-15 Apr 2016 - Preliminary

a reply to: ElGoobero
It's never "over" as such ElG, it just goes on and on and on
There will always be something to talk about regarding earthquakes.
When they stop, then it is "over", in every sense of the word. The Planet will be dead.

Alot of shakin going on lately around the globe.

M6.2 - 95km SSW of Champerico, Guatemala

13.475°N 92.163°W depth=48.4 km (30.1 mi)

Time
2016-04-15 14:11:29 (UTC)
2016-04-15 09:11:29 (UTC-05:00) in your timezone
Times in other timezones

Nearby Places
95.0 km (59.0 mi) SSW of Champerico, Guatemala
119.0 km (73.9 mi) S of Suchiate, Mexico
123.0 km (76.4 mi) SW of Nueva Concepcion, Guatemala
124.0 km (77.1 mi) SW of Pueblo Nuevo Tiquisate, Guatemala
219.0 km (136.1 mi) SW of Guatemala City, Guatemala

USGS

BIG 7.1 Just now.

GFZ

a reply to: lurksoften

This comming in now also 7.1 in Japan looks to be shallow also.

Magnitude Mw 7.0
Region KYUSHU, JAPAN
Date time 2016-04-15 16:25:07.3 UTC
Location 32.85 N ; 130.57 E
Depth 10 km
Distances 85 km S of Fukuoka-shi, Japan / pop: 1,392,289 / local time: 01:25:07.3 2016-04-16
17 km NW of Kumamoto-shi, Japan / pop: 680,423 / local time: 01:25:07.3 2016-04-16
7 km S of Tamana, Japan / pop: 45,661 / local time: 01:25:07.3 2016-04-16

EMSC 7.0
USGS 7.0


Translated.

[Tsunami advisory] 16 days 01 hours 27 minutes, tsunami warning in Ariake-Yatsushiro has been announced. Near the middle of the sea and the coast it is dangerous. Please immediately away from the coast. You can also enter the sea until the warning is canceled, please do not move closer to the coast.

twitter

EVALUATION ---------- * AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.1 OCCURRED IN KYUSHU, JAPAN AT 1625 UTC ON FRIDAY APRIL 15 2016. * JAPAN HAS ISSUED A TSUNAMI ADVISORY FOR THEIR NEARBY COASTS. * BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE FOR ANY OTHER COASTS.

Source

Video on website shows shaking

Nah ........ 6.7ML
I didn't look at the Network lists, I was doing another Waveform graph string and clicked on the NIED page, it opened with this ........ I thought WTF they have set the 6.1 graph as a default
but no its a new one, AQUA saying 7.1Mw on conversion
www.hinet.bosai.go.jp...
link below is the original 6.1
www.hinet.bosai.go.jp...
compare, and make your own judgement.

The Russians say Earthquake happened 2016-04-15 16:25:02
in region Kyushu, Japan
latitude 32.6, longitude 130.68 , depth 10 km
Ms 7.4/31, mb 6.7/43, I0 10.5-11

I0 10.5-11 is intensity, the poor Kuma's are getting smashed

USGS: 57 quakes last 24 hours

earthquake.usgs.gov... newest%22%2C%22basemap%22%3A%22grayscale%22%2C%22autoUpdate%22%3Atrue%2C%22restrictListToMap%22%3Atrue%2C%22timeZone%22%3A%22utc%22%2C%22mapposition%2 2%3A%5B%5B-65.6582745198266%2C-313.59375%5D%2C%5B84.40594104126978%2C113.90625%5D%5D%2C%22overlays%22%3A%7B%22plates%22%3Atrue%7D%2C%22viewModes%22%3A %7B%22list%22%3Atrue%2C%22map%22%3Atrue%2C%22settings%22%3Afalse%2C%22help%22%3Afalse%7D%7D


Lists the Japan as 7.0
6.1 in Guatemala
eleven 5.0 to 5.9

Magnitude 3.3
Region GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.
Date time 2016-04-15 21:21:32.9 UTC
Location 34.36 N ; 118.64 W
Depth 9 km
Followed by lower Mag:

Magnitude 2.3
Region GREATER LOS ANGELES AREA, CALIF.
Date time 2016-04-15 21:30:12.5 UTC
Location 34.36 N ; 118.64 W
Depth 12 km

Global Doom?

Just watching this live feed from helicopter flying over.

Huge landslides

abcnews.go.com...

Praying for them…

www.kmoni.bosai.go.jp...

new real time strong motion sensor w/audio alert...

Just for info purposes

watch out people. A lot going on today! aftershocks from the Kyushu 7.0 M are going up again at the moment (from 4-6 to 5.1+4.8m all seperately listed Earthquakes)

I think Japan or any country around it is the most likely spot to get hit by a bigger EQ but South/Central/North America are possible too.

Edit:/Update:
Another thing I noticed looking at that list is how Alaska reacted to both american EQ's (assuming they are listed more or less in real time)

So the next Alaska EQ (Southern) after 6.2 offshore guatemala= 2.1M, Depth 108

But the next Alaska EQ (Central) after Greater LA=3.0,Depth 132 and right after that the most shallow EQ of this series 2.3 (southern) at 88.

a reply to: Olivine

Good work Olivine. To me, this looks similar to the March 11 2011 which was preceeded on March 9th by a 7.2 which was big but not as big as the 9.0 mega thrust one that happened 2 days later on March 11, let's pray these are not all foreshocks to a similar scenario.

New development
The aftershocks from the 6.7 (7.0 if you want to) have spread way up through the centre of Kyushu
image below is of the 281 aftershocks since the 6.7
dl.dropboxusercontent.com...

sorry can't post it in directly due to advertising restrictions

I will add all those to the page I'm running
see japan address in my link

I may have to expand the research area, I had it
South
32.5764
North
32.9172
West
130.7121
East
131.0365
Confined to the Kumamoto area

Just to prove I'm not making this stuff up, from the nIED site itself www.hinet.bosai.go.jp...
image
dl.dropboxusercontent.com...

Anything could happen from here, this is right on the Median Tectonic Line
dl.dropboxusercontent.com...