Putin up's the ante!

a reply to: noeltrotsky

Well it would certainly scare the hell out of the Baltic nations which are NATO members. I think one of Putin's objectives is to try to split NATO up.

a reply to: Greathouse

War games near Finland border are not going to split NATO.
Russia is genuinely feel threatened, that is all. In reality there is a 800 million block against 150 million.
Who do you think feel more afraid ?

a reply to: kitzik

Besides the fact that Russia was given an invitation to join NATO. If I was outnumbered by that amount I would not go on the offense As Putin has. I would join the rest of the civilized world and form a big mutual communal block of prosperous nation's across Europe and Asia in an effort for world peace. I would not be slicing off the most favorable parts of countries that used to be under Russia's spear of influence.

a reply to: noeltrotsky

Ukraine has more reasons to join NATO than Finland has. One reason is the constant aggression, Russia is showing them. If the SHTF in Finland, Russia doesn´t have any excuse for annexing Finland not like they had with Ukraine. There won´t be any sneak into the country either as they don´t have any towns, cities in Finland where they would have some sort of support within its people for annexing, like in Ukraine they did have.
So if Russia would attack Finland it would ultimately be wrong. Finland has been an independent and sovereign country so long that Russia has no good reasons for such an action ( Unless it wants WW3 ) and if it happens it surely will bring WW3.

Finland and Sweden pretty much has a "silent" defense pact. I am not sure how the Swedish goverment would react but it would be a complete mess for Russia to attack them. It would definetly draw Sweden into a war which in turn would draw Denmark and Norway into the war - which would force NATO into the war. And that's ignoring the situation with the baltics being squeezed in the middle, which probably already bring NATO into the war. The EU would have little option but to respond as well.

a reply to: dollukka

Well during the winter war mother Russia seized part of your nation and has yet to return it. Maybe Putin thinks he can carve off another piece?

Territorial changes Cession of the Gulf of Finland islands, Karelian Isthmus, Ladoga Karelia, Salla, and Rybachy Peninsula, and rental of Hanko to the Soviet Union

If my recollections are right isn't he now conducting military exercises in the part of Findland that the Soviet Union took?

The more I look at it from a World War II perspective. Findland seems to be a strategic area for the Baltic/Scandinavian spear of influence.

Hostilities ceased in March 1940 with the signing of the Moscow Peace Treaty. When Findland ceded territory representing 11% of its land area and 30% of its economy to the Soviet Union.[43] Soviet losses were heavy, and the country's international reputation suffered.[44] While the Soviet Union did not conquer all Finland, Soviet gains somewhat exceeded their pre-war demands. They gained substantial territory along Lake Ladoga, providing a buffer for Leningrad, and territory in northern Finland.[45] Finland retained its sovereignty and enhanced its international reputation. The end of the war cancelled the Franco–British plan to send troops to Finland through northern Scandinavia. Some authors would suggest that the official statement by Sweden, Norway and Denmark of February 1940, declaring they would not allow British troops to use their territories on their way to Finland, was a factor in Finland's decision of commencing the peace talks with Russia.[46] One of the operation's major goals in the projected Franco–British operation had been to take control of northern Sweden's iron ore and cut its deliveries to Germany.[47] For this reason it was also a major factor in the launching of Operation Weserübung, Nazi Germany's invasion of Denmark and Norway.

Actually, Russia is defending. Dont belive mainstream media. If you write here that means that you have internet. You can check facts by yourself... This is strange war/anti Russia hype. Russian invasion of Ukraine? Dont be silly... Check facts. Its civil war, started by US funded nazi extremists from western Ukraine. Dont you remember how it began? Legally and democratically chosen goverment was overthrown by poroshenko and his lackeys, they were funded by US. There are proofs beside of Obama interview in which he admitted to that. Western Ukraine (Lugansk, Donetsk) didnt wanted to take part in this. They wanted do this peacefully, in votings. They declared that they want voting and autonomy. After that there was "Odessa Masacre" did by "Prawy Sector", neo nazis funded by US. They burned alive and shot like animals peaceful protesters! And civil war began... You can check it! Dont belive in this warmongering! I dont understand what is happening with USA goverment but they want war in europe... Even Germany and France are withdrawing from that sh#... Its a conspiracy forum. Why you peoples belive in one of the biggest conspiracies of our time and dont do anything to check how it actually looks???? WAKE UP! Before it will be too late and nukes will start flying above our heads...

One mans insanity is another mans destiny.

a reply to: learnatic

Ah wonderful...the same spam quote you put in all ATS threads.

Much appreciated.

originally posted by: Greathouse
Well during the winter war mother Russia seized part of your nation and has yet to return it. Maybe Putin thinks he can carve off another piece?

This is what I think would happen. Putin would roll into the northern 50% or so, leaving Helsinki alone and just grabbing the North. That move isn't aggressive enough to bring a full military response.

Of course Putin could try the same thing in a Baltic country, but that would directly involve NATO. It would be more difficult but provide more reward...showing NATO isn't going to come to defend them.

originally posted by: noeltrotsky

originally posted by: Greathouse
Well during the winter war mother Russia seized part of your nation and has yet to return it. Maybe Putin thinks he can carve off another piece?

This is what I think would happen. Putin would roll into the northern 50% or so, leaving Helsinki alone and just grabbing the North. That move isn't aggressive enough to bring a full military response.

Of course Putin could try the same thing in a Baltic country, but that would directly involve NATO. It would be more difficult but provide more reward...showing NATO isn't going to come to defend them.

I disagree, Finland is a different proposition to the Baltic States and wouldn't be afraid to defend its territory. In point of fact, Finnish and Russian troops face each other over the border every day (and when off duty occasionally drink and play cards, etc together). This last point makes combat much less likely in my opinion - it is harder to kill people that you sometimes socialise with than it is random people.

Besides which, this is just a military exercise.

a reply to: Greathouse

There are few people who are longing old karelia. But the thruth is that Finland do not want Karelia back in condition it is. It is pretty much demolished, huge areas polluted. Thanks but no thanks.

As to Putin and nukes, what hasn't been established yet is the type of nukes he is talking about. One of the reasons for the relative success of START over the years has been the fact that both the USA and, particularly, Russia have moved away from large city killers and moved onto small scale tactical ("battlefield") nukes - which aren't covered by START.

Do not get me wrong, i am not saying that using these nukes is ok - far from it. However, it is a very different proposition to what we think of as "nuclear war".

That said, if Putin sanctions there use then he is clearly bat# crazy.

originally posted by: noeltrotsky
Can you sell me why NATO would defend Finland?

Quite simply because any Russian incursion into Finland would prove an expansionist agenda from Russia, it would be clear indication that Putin is on a path to expand Russian territory, and strengthening of Russia is not something the world would sit back and ignore.

Military thinking has changed a lot since WW2, which was the last time we were faced with such a threat in Europe. The last time we allowed strategy to rule our decision-making we allowed Hitler to gain power and influence across Europe, failing to stop him when we had the chance to do it, several times.

Public opinion would also have considerable sway in NATO. The public would view this expansion as a direct threat to Europe and numerous countries would be demanding that action be taken to stop Putin from progressing to any other territory.

It might be kind of cynical to say it, but the publics of the world care less about ISIS in Syria than they do about Finland potentially being invaded by Russia. This is on our doorstep, and we have considerable ties to all these nations which simply do not exist with the Arab states.

In addition, although Finland is not an active member of NATO, it is a part of various agreements and does assist NATO through a cooperative partnership:

NATO and Finland actively cooperate on peace and security operations and have developed practical cooperation in many other areas, including education and training and the development of military capabilities.

NATO

As I said though, I believe agreements would be made and broken all over the place, deals signed, allegiances made, and none of it is set in stone. There were plenty of organizations and agreements made prior to WW2 which were either broken or abandoned, and others which were formed and remain an existing part of the European political landscape.

No one can really know what will happen, because when need arises things change dramatically over night. Either way, I just cannot see NATO allowing a friendly nation to be invaded by an aggressor, regardless of membership. In fact, I think it's plausible NATO would start immediately accepting new nations into NATO if war broke out with Russia, granting them protection immediately and allowing NATO to take full participation in holding the aggressor back.

Northern Fleet exercise routine, check readiness. West began to squeal and I think a little stink of fear

Geez these threads get out of hand quick.

Russia is only a nuclear power, it isn't a world power.

It has no money, no logistics, a very dubious conventional navy (excluding slave capsules known as SSBN). I would be surprised if the whole miserable armed forces of poor Russia were not waiting for the order to attack NATO so they can lay down arms en masse and get some decent food, accomodation, prospects, etc.

No matter how insane any leader was, no Nukes will ever again be fired unles by a rogue state.

If Russia needs to use Tactical nukes, it's already lost.

originally posted by: mangust69
Northern Fleet exercise routine, check readiness. West began to squeal and I think a little stink of fear

Northern fleet would break down before it reached Scotland, the SSBN may make it, but if you are going to use them, your fleet isn't needed.

a reply to: Forensick in the Crimea, one rocket launcher Bastion forced to wear diapers US sailors and pray

They've been hanging the threat of nuclear war over our heads for the last 60 years, just go ahead and launch them all. At least I won't have to listen to any more Bullsh!t about it.