Tensions With Russia Near Breaking Point

Things seem to be coming to a head and the pressure on Russia is building, pressure some may say is uncalled for. Now it seems Russia is on the edge of recession, with the sanctions taking their toll and the Rouble falling to an all time low.

Also new troop deployments to Crimea are scheduled with Russia possibly getting ready to make Ukraine pay for bringing Russia to it's knees through western sanctions.

Russian authorities urged people not to panic on Tuesday as the rouble fell to a new all-time low against the US dollar amid concerns about the effect of sanctions on the country's economy.

The rouble fell about 1% to 38.71 per dollar, the weakest it has been since the currency was restructured in 1998.

Last week, the US and Europe introduced further sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine.

"Don't panic," said deputy finance minister Alexei Moiseyev.

www.bbc.co.uk...

Russia needs to boost forces in Crimea because of the Ukraine crisis and a foreign military build-up, Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu says.

He said Russia must deploy "a full and self-reliant" military force in Crimea, which it annexed in March.

Pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine launched their bid for separation shortly after the annexation.

Since a truce on 5 September, rebel groups have been posted near Mariupol, a key port on the main route to Crimea.

Ukrainian politicians have expressed fears that Russia may try to connect the rebels in the east with Crimea, a move that would involve seizing Mariupol.

www.bbc.co.uk...

All in all, just as things were getting better, increasing pressure on Russia with not even an ounce of concrete evidence is creating serious tension again. The question is, will Russia give in? Or will Russia finally snap and hit back?

Maybe it's just me, but is there anything worse the western world could have done than add more sanctions? I mean there will be nothing that gets the Russian people riled up more and all for going to war with the western world which is economically screwing them over. Seems like a stupid thing our governments have done to me.

These countries play their strategy games through a rule known as Minimax:

en.wikipedia.org...

This applies to games like Chess, Go, Checkers, Tic-Tac-Toe and anything else that requires moves.
Most of the time the play will be civilised and in small rational steps, but at the end of the game when one side knows they are going to lose no matter what, there isn't anything to hold them back from totally letting go.

a reply to: DAZ21

BBC is biased.

Sure Russia is feeling the pain, but so does the EU.

If Russia really was in trouble they already would have cut off the gas towards the EU, by doing so they can force the EU to lift the sanctions.

Russia is moving towards the East now as a market and stimulates more domestic production. So yes it will be felt, but Russia is shifting it`s focus. EU countries will lose also in the long run, because they won`t get those revenues back, even with lifted sanctions later on.

The dangerous part is, war gets prevented because of relations between countries, and now the relations are stopped.

a reply to: BornAgainAlien

Yea I picked BBC as a source but there was many to choose from, and this is definitely true. The rest of Europe is getting affected but not to the same extent, at least not until the gas goes off.

I heard that they are punishing Ukraine the most in regards to energy. It's going to be a cold and miserable winter for Ukraine at the very minimum.

originally posted by: stormcell
These countries play their strategy games through a rule known as Minimax:

en.wikipedia.org...

This applies to games like Chess, Go, Checkers, Tic-Tac-Toe and anything else that requires moves.
Most of the time the play will be civilised and in small rational steps, but at the end of the game when one side knows they are going to lose no matter what, there isn't anything to hold them back from totally letting go.

That's what I'm worried about. I think these economic sanctions might be the final straw. When there's nothing left to lose, and anything Russia does is perceived as wrong regardless, what else is there left to do but go to war?

a reply to: DAZ21

Russia was aware it was going to happen in front, so they already took some measures.

China knows also they need Russia, because they will be next in line. And Russia has advanced military equipment which is of interest to China. So China is going to step in with funds also, and Russia can print if they want.

It definitely hurts Russia, but the Western media seems to bloat it also.

a reply to: BornAgainAlien

Well I sincerely hope you're right. Only time will tell, we'll have to see how this unfolds over the coming days.

The following is interesting in Russia`s next strike to the Dollar hegemony :

Russia Central Bank Responds To Domestic Dollar Shortage, Starts Currency Swaps

With the Ruble hitting record lows once again today against the USDollar, it appears concerns over USD liquidity are growing in Russia. The Russian central bank has unveiled an FX swap operation, allowing firms to borrow dollars in exchange for Rubles for a duration of 1 day (at a cost of 7%p.a.). Of course, this squeeze on USD funding - driven by Western sanctions - will, instead of isolating Russia, force Russian companies (finding USD transactions prohibitively expensive) into the CNY-axis, thus further strengthening the Yuanification of world trade and the ultimate demise of the USD as reserve currency.

Source

a reply to: DAZ21

I can honestly see and feel if anything...Russia will have to bow a bit and join the rest of the world sooner or later if they want to survive. All their years of chest beating and postulating has only gotten them to where they are now.

a reply to: mysterioustranger

I can't see Russia backing down, and plus I don't think China would allow it. Russia's now acting as the buffer zone between China and the US.

a reply to: DAZ21

All in all, just as things were getting better, increasing pressure on Russia with not even an ounce of concrete evidence

Wait... what? Not even an ounce of concrete evidence for what? There are mountains of evidence that Russia is supplying rebel forces with weapons, equipment, even artillery support from within Russia proper. There is a wealth of evidence to support the fact that Russian born fighters (and even active Russian military personnel) were/are actively engaged in fighting in Eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainians even CAPTURED Russian paratroopers, and then it was claimed by Russia these elite soldiers somehow got "lost", and it was just a misunderstanding.

Do you honestly believe the Russians when they deny they are aiding the rebels? There are pictures, countless videos, and even Russian families who want to know why their sons/husbands in the Russian military are returning in caskets...

Russia could easily close its border with the Ukraine, yet it chooses not to, and instead a steady stream of heavy armor, APC's, and mobile artillery as well as mobile SAMS and fighters continue to pour across the border into Eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainians had the separatists all but defeated at one point, yet they magically came up with new weapons, fighters, and heavy equipment to beat back the Ukrainians with. Where did it all come from?

Ruble is falling because Oil has been falling.

On the otherhand, Major Market index of Russia is the main worry. But then so is S&P500 and Dow Jones.

A major market correction is due in spring or even before that. It will take everyone down with itself including US, Russian, UK, Japanese markets etc.

2008 type of correction is long overdue.

Tensions With Russia Near Breaking Point

Ooooh, sensational thread title, did you think that up all by yourself?

What a load of codswollop, the point you're trying to attach to that fantastic headline is nothing but markets reacting to effects that sanctions MAY have. Furthermore, through all the replies still no-one has brought up the fact that these sanctions were baseless in the first place.

Russia may not be sparkly white with a lot of global issues but make no mistake, the west have been out to get them for a while.

Breaking up the USSR wasn't enough and there's a bunch of people that need more oil, cash & power and they will go to extreme lengths to achieve their goals.

Wait until winter...

I'm pretty sure that War is in the making. I think that this war is a planned event to try to fix the economies of the countries. It is just a game to all of these countries, one that both trims populations and stimulates work. The losers are always the regular citizens, they never target the capital buildings to destroy the leaders. The terrorists don't follow these rules, that is why they are dangerous to the ones on top of our governments. It is all right to kill the citizens but not the rulers.

a reply to: rickymouse

It is all right to kill the citizens but not the rulers.

that sounds like a good reason to change the rules of the game

originally posted by: DAZ21
a reply to: mysterioustranger

I can't see Russia backing down, and plus I don't think China would allow it. Russia's now acting as the buffer zone between China and the US.

China uses Russia as a tool and has no loyalty at all to it. China has had no problem grabbing up Russian arms and other markets. Between China and the US/EU Russian markets in Africa, Mid-east and South America have almost completely dried up. Of course the fact that Russia sells arms directly aimed to fight China to both Vietnam and India does nothing to make China think Russia has China's best interest. China walks a line between the US and Russia all the time. It is not going commit to either side. Even in the UN it just does not vote on these issues to avoid taking sides. Because while Russia has its uses Chinas bread and butter is the US.

Russia is simply playing out its league and desperately looking for a way to save face before the damange done to its economy becomes so severe it will take a decade to recover if ever. And if Iran can with the second largest gas reserved in the world can convince the West to release santions on it and allow it to get funding to get it flowing then Russia is going to be in for some real problems down the road. And Europe will be feasting on cheap gas.

Russia so called friends seem to have no loyalty to it at all, then again I guess that goes both ways.

I read a news report this morning that Russian "peacekeepers' in the breakaway Moldovan province of Transdniester are starting to use the same covert tactics the Russians used in Crimea.

Same with one of the baltic countries.....cant find the news report now, but it did bring a response from NATO chief stating to Russia "Do not test us!".

Russia is in the sights to breakup, and "Balkanise". One way or another it WILL happen. Its just depends how many poeple Putin wants to take down with him when it does.

a reply to: DeadSeraph

1) There are elements supported by The West also in Russia to get Russia destabilized

2) We have seen a vid from the mothers/wives of the captured Russian para-troopers

3) We have seen a few para-troopers being caught in the Ukraine

4) We have heard unconfirmed reports coming from inside Russia about corpses, but don`t know if they are true

5) OCSE monitoring has not seen weapons crossing the border

6) Separatists have encircled ATO forces lots of times and have been getting weapons from that

7) The Separatists have been planning for a counter offensive for months

8) Hundreds of thousand Eastern Ukrainians have gone to Russia

9) Eastern Ukrainians have been trained for 4 months in Russia, we have no idea how many (they were ready for the offensive)

10) There are Russian volunteers (also no idea how many), because they think it`s a war at Russia`s border and it`s needed for the survival of Russia. Those volunteers are also ex-army and soldiers on leave

11) Ukraine army actually wans`t doing so well, that was all bloated by Kiev. Ukrainian army got slowly wrecked by guerrilla warfare in the months preceding the Separatist offensive

12) For the offensive Separatist switched to brigades, probably Russian style (400men)

13) Separatists seem to deliberately have given up territory to pull Ukrainian forces into the corner, so parts could be easier surrounded

14) We have heard lots of reports coming from Kiev, the West and reporters, but not actual proof

15) We have seen questionable vids and pictures regarding massive Russian involvement

16) Russia lies in such cases

17) Kiev and NATO really cried foul when Ukrainian army was collapsing (disorderly retreating everywhere)...they did that to safe face

Because of what we actual know :

We have no idea about how many volunteers there were, and also no idea about how many volunteers were already military trained.

My personal guess is, Russia has actual send in some regular brigades also to make it more quick, it took about a week. I base that on the quickness it took ATO to collapse. So it saved lives if Russia has used regulars. ATO would have collapsed either way.

If Russia has send in regular army also, it was a limited operation I think.

Russia had already spoken out it was not going to let Ukraine becoming a Western puppet-state, so it should not come as a surprise Russia had involvement in it.

Question only is, how big was it excluding training and planning, if there was any besides para-troopers doing recon ?

We just don`t know.

originally posted by: hopenotfeariswhatweneed
a reply to: rickymouse

It is all right to kill the citizens but not the rulers.

that sounds like a good reason to change the rules of the game

I'm pretty sure that is impossible on a world wide basis.