Tensions With Russia Near Breaking Point

Is there a conspiracy to force Russia to start World War III to stave off the damages caused by crushing sanctions? Surely they will, if pushed to the breaking point economically.

I think we should watch this very carefully to see what the Russian people do. I am willing to bet that as the sanctions take their toll, the people start clamoring for Putin to fix the situation. Putin will be in a corner when that happens, if not sooner, and he has a decision to make. Does he give in or does he escalate? Obviously not doing anything is not an option at such a time, because something will have to be done about the economy. The only other possibility is finding an economic way to relieve the pressures of the sanctions, such as economic deals with countries who are not bowing to western interests.

But like I have said ever since this started months ago, the brink of war is NOT upon us. As much as Putin fears being seen as weak, he cannot really escalate this into an all out war. He just can't do it and hope to come out better than when he went in. It is not possible. That is not saying Russia doesn't have a formidable military, but there are many non-military factors that would come into play, the biggest of which is the people. The majority of the people can claim now that they are for escalating tensions with Ukraine, but when Russia's economy declines their primary concern will be their quality of life. And escalating the tensions will do nothing to remedy the economic situation, rather it will harm it even further since you are pouring more money into your military...which is what happens during a war, especially a big one. And there will be more economic sanctions to the point that Russia isolates itself even further from the rest of the developed world. Therefore it is not a viable option to escalate into all out war. Any money that is to be gained in the initial stages of a war, say from seizing assets and resources, would be offset by the military costs. Then there is the fact that nobody would be willing to buy what Russia is selling anyway, because the majority of developed nations will not want to anger the west.

I just don't think people realize the place that Russia is truly in. They stand an extremely low chance of coming out on top in this situation. They can attempt to hold out a bit longer, maybe waiting for the demand for resources to increase, hoping the west will ease the sanctions, but this is not a good strategy considering that the Russian economy will continue to decline. And there is the possibility that at a certain point it stops slowly declining and actually tanks. A recession that turns into a crash. And I've outlined above why military action is not viable. So the only way out is to back off in Ukraine. Another consideration is that Russia has either let private militia groups make an incursion into Ukraine, or they have created a situation where these groups made an incursion on their own, and either way it might prove difficult to convince these groups to exit the country. This is not a primary concern however, as Russia and/or Ukraine can deal with that problem.

There are many other things to consider, but those are some of the important considerations that should be understood. It seems to me that some posters do not take all of the factors into consideration, especially where war is concerned. War does not occur in a vacuum, and it has far-reaching consequences across the entire nation most of the time. Sure this is dependent on various factors, but for all intents and purposes Russia cannot afford an all out war. Truly invading Ukraine, which would be unmistakable, would cause them more harm than good, even if they conquered the entire country. Even if the west doesn't intervene militarily Russia still loses when everything is taken into consideration. There are other factors that I could go into, things that make war unlikely, but these should suffice for making my point. Sanctions are nothing to scoff at either, which I've seen some doing on these forums in general. Sanctions employed over a long enough period of time and by enough countries can turn a powerful state into a third world country.

Russia is boosting troop levels in Crimea because they will go for a Russian controlled land corridor to Crimea soon....that simple....

It's going to be a cold winter in Europe once Russia cuts the gas.

a reply to: JiggyPotamus

America's driving away most third world countries. Russia will just shift its economy away from the west permanently.

If you're familiar with Russian and European history, Europe treats Russia as eastern foreigners and Russia has just wanted to be like the west forever. They admired the Romans which led to later adopting Greek orthodoxy through the Byzantines. Peter the great traveled through northern Europe learning western ways especially shipbuilding.

The west has continued treating them poorly even though they bled for us fighting Hitler. Look up WW2 casualties. More than any other nation by a long shot.

Shame America can't accept that globalization means we treat all people equally. The message has clearly been sent every way humanly possible. Let's let everyone join the club. We have plenty to worry about without war.

a reply to: JiggyPotamus

This is the point I was trying to get at.

When the lives of Russian people start to be affected negatively, who will the people blame? Russia or the west?

Depending on who sells them the better story, will determine who the people decide to blame.

Either they will riot in the streets and call for Putin's head, or they will back Putin and call for revenge against the west.

That's how I see it anyway, surely these are the only options. Especially if these sanctions start to bite.

a reply to: wantsome
One thing Putin is good at, is generating good PR. I could see him not cutting the gas, just to show the world "Hey, I could have been a dick and cut the gas off. But I did not. Who is the bad guy again?"

a reply to: TKDRL

Who is the bad guy in all of this? Is it really Putin?

a reply to: DAZ21

Democracy is just hypocrisy on the tip of some else tongue

If the west was in a situation like Russia is with a country sharing a border who's government was killing their people who have lived there for generations we would do a lot more than Russia

Look at ISIS,couple of Americans and and a British man are murdered in Syria and they now have plans to attack them and if The Syrians government forces who are also fighting ISIS attack our planes that have no legal authority to fly in their airspace that will result in us forcing regime change

Russia is screwed.

At least the Russia of the previous century.

Spad brought up the point that "China" isn't actually a friend, i'll add that a weakened Russia has a zero chance of actually holding Siberia in the coming decades, cuddling up to China while engaging in warfare against the West in many ways would essentially be giving Eastern Russia away, not by war but by demographics, Chinese migrant workers in Siberia part of the year already outnumber Russians in Siberia, by reliance on China several things happen, first off you loose your clout via economic dependence to send them home by force if you choose, second your adding a lot more workers who probably wont leave either and if your Military is engaged elsewhere your screwed to do much about it even if you chose to. Sorry but Russia is one of the few nations in the world with a negative demographics issue, it's population declines while it holds vast amounts of land, dealing with a nation like China is very dangerous, a nation that can demographically overwhelm you, your talking about 1.5 billion people or 15x the number of Mexicans on our border... In reality does loosing Ukraine have to even hurt Russia economically? not if they play nice with Ukraine it's just a door to western money either way. So how "heavily" will Russia rely on China? Not at all...

Tavi mentions Russian desire to be Western, very valid point, it's the real reason the wall fell, and in the end here if it gets serious it will be the reason Putin would be pushed out of office, he gets to go as far as assuring that ethnic Russians remain Russian, the people of Russia wont even support the occupation of Western Ukraine and even if they would... the demographic issue still remains... Russia, roughly 140 Million people or half the USA, their numbers are almost as low as Mexico and they have the same issue with Islam almost everyone else does, the Chinese Issue in the East and would be going up against Europe with over 800 Million people while needing to hold the largest land area nation on the planet... How many men can Russia afford to bleed and still be Russia? very few... There wont be a large scale war here.

Russia is cutting of the gas slowly already.

The already wobbly EU economy can`t handle if it gets cut off completely :

The cold war is on, literally, because it will determine who will survive Europe's upcoming cold winter - a Europe with decreasing Russian gas supplies, or Russia now officially starved of Western sources of funding.

www.zerohedge.com...

a reply to: DAZ21

They now see it as something which is forced upon them, and they are right. That makes their resilient stronger.

He completely ignores that Russia has the leverage with gas needs to the EU, without the gas the EU economy can`t function good enough, and not to speak about the cold Europeans who are partly aware about who`s behind the whole mess.

Russia was an importer, so sanctions effect imports the most, but those can be partly replaced by imports from elsewhere. It would have been different if Russia was a big exporter and was a really isolated country now, they still have enough options for importing goods. Not all can be replaced, but a lot of important stuff can.

a reply to: DAZ21
No, I don't personally see Putin or Russia as villains at all.

Here`s an adjective towards the mood of the ordinary Russians :

A Reality Check From Russia

I’ve been in St. Petersburg and Moscow for the past two weeks. As for the tragedy being played out in Ukraine, it’s been surprising to find total uniformity of opinion from Russian citizens, including groups of our CCI alumni. This is not due to “controlled media,” since all I’ve spoken with check a multitude of media sources daily on Internet, including CNN. Their ages range from 25 to 55 years, generally they are the builders of Russia’s middle class. It is not long-term support for Putin, because at least half of them weren’t supporters of Putin previously. But today the situation has changed.

Source

originally posted by: stirling
Russia is boosting troop levels in Crimea because they will go for a Russian controlled land corridor to Crimea soon....that simple....

Or ... they might take the more sensible option instead of risking war and any further sanctions that would last for a long time. They would likely just build a causway/tunnel system at the Kerch Strait as they have attempted to do with Tuzla Island before in 2003 ... and we know they had planed to do so with Ukraine prior to this crisis and still plan on going it alone now obviously Medvedev Signs Decree Creating Contractor for Kerch Strait Bridge Project

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Monday ordered state-road building corporation Avtodor, or Russian Highways, to create a subsidiary company that will oversee the building of a bridge across the Kerch Strait, connecting Crimea with Russia's Krasnodar region.

In December 2013, Russia and Ukraine signed a series of bilateral agreements, one of which was dedicated to the construction of the bridge, and despite the collapse of working-relations between Moscow and Kiev over the current crisis in Ukraine, Medvedev expects the deals to be honored.

Any news source that claims Russia will do this through Eastern Ukraine as they did when fighting moved further south doesn't understand the geography of the region that well ... or for that matter, rational decisions and strategic blunders

originally posted by: mysterioustranger
a reply to: DAZ21

I can honestly see and feel if anything...Russia will have to bow a bit and join the rest of the world sooner or later if they want to survive. All their years of chest beating and postulating has only gotten them to where they are now.

Ha! Join the rest of the world??? Are you kidding? Russia can and will do whatever they want! If you haven't noticed the rest of the world is on the brink of collapse!!! Europe is an economic disaster one winter away from turmoil! China? Please they are reliant on an tapped out unemployed welfare addicted US consumer....India still after all these years is a third world country which can't feed it's people.

And you expect Russia to join said disaster country club? Please things might get tough for the Russian people but Russia is a resource power house because at the end of the day when this whole fiat fake fraudulent system collapses America lacks manufacturing, illegals are milking us dry, Wallstreet gives a crap about nothing or no one, and Europe is flat broke with third worlders taking over.

originally posted by: DAZ21
a reply to: TKDRL

Who is the bad guy in all of this? Is it really Putin?

He's certainly not helping. I would suggest there are multiple "bad guys", some of them are figureheads in the western sphere of influence, and some of them in the east. But I am definitely not going to give Putin a free pass for his actions in the Ukraine.

Someone posted an article that states that the common Russian tends to view Crimea as traditionally Russian territory. Historically speaking, it HAS been Russian for hundreds of years. I understood Russia's concerns regarding Crimea, and it's strategic importance to the Russian military. It came as no shock to me that the Russians would move to retake it. But that is where it should have ended. Once they started throwing fuel on the fires breaking out in eastern Ukraine, I began to view Putin in a different light. It seems that his goal is Mariupol (another strategically important port city), and he wants access to it via a breakaway nation so he can look like he's not such a bad guy after all.

Putin is not innocent in all of this. Both him AND the west have their hands dirty. Until Russia halts aid to the separatists and voices uncompromising support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, this conflict will continue. Unfortunately, it would appear that Crimea was not enough for Putin.

a reply to: DeadSeraph

and he wants access to it via a breakaway nation

u mean like England and Scotland??

cause its European as well.

a reply to: DeadSeraph

i only have one comment on this,,

a reply to: BobAthome

Lets look at that another way: Would you feel the same way if Scotland declared it's independence, and then the U.K invaded it and annexed Glasgow because there are English speaking people there, or citizens of the U.K living there that don't want to live in an independent Scotland?